Alexander Vargas

SS Chattanooga Lookouts

Age 25 S/R 5'11" / 184 lbs AA HR +16%BB +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	23	AANYY	147	.227/.301/.333	1	10	53	—	.206/.260/.301
2025	23	A+CIN	255	.229/.291/.364	6	16	45	—	.194/.239/.295
2026	24	AACIN	62	.339/.383/.393	0	2	91	—	.316/.350/.368
2027PROJ2% MLB	25	MLBCIN	3	.215/.258/.308	0	0	57	-0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB	26	MLBCIN	74	.218/.263/.320	1	3	61	-0.1
2029PROJ42% MLB	27	MLBCIN	125	.218/.265/.322	2	4	62	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$3M2034Ext$5M+1

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA

K%98

Z-Con%96

Whiff%94

Speed77

wOBA65

wRC+61

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsCal Conley (age 25) · Carlos Garcia (age 25) · Shannon Wilkerson (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†57

AVG/OBP/SLG.215 / .258 / .308

PA3

HR0

K%33

BB%5

BABIP266

ISO90

MLB%2%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT45

scouting grade only

POWER40

scouting grade only

EYE30

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2019	17	ROK	GCL Yankees East	—	217	193	45	10	7	1	18	28	5	15	3	233	315	373	688	140	267	13	8	308	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	ROK	FCL Yankees	—	174	150	41	7	1	3	20	40	2	17	8	273	366	393	760	120	349	23	11	341	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	A	Tampa Tarpons	—	431	389	79	14	2	8	35	123	3	27	13	203	274	311	585	108	271	29	8	265	12	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	A+	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	447	418	86	18	6	9	24	116	1	16	6	206	251	342	593	136	259	26	5	262	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	AA	Somerset Patriots	—	256	240	61	7	5	4	11	65	3	14	9	254	295	375	670	121	329	25	4	297	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	19	15	3	1	1	0	3	1	0	1	1	200	333	400	733	200	200	5	16	310	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AA	Somerset Patriots	—	147	132	30	7	2	1	12	33	2	10	4	227	301	333	635	106	293	22	8	287	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	255	231	53	7	3	6	18	36	2	16	2	229	291	364	654	134	245	14	7	290	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	62	56	19	1	1	0	4	7	0	2	2	339	383	393	776	54	388	11	6	340	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2019	17	ROK MLE	GCL Yankees East	—	217	199	34	7	5	1	12	40	5	15	3	171	236	271	507	101	202	18	6	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	—	174	159	29	4	1	2	11	57	2	17	8	182	244	258	502	75	261	33	6	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	—	431	401	58	10	2	6	23	172	3	27	13	145	197	224	421	80	224	40	5	186	12	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	447	429	65	12	5	7	13	151	1	16	6	152	178	252	430	100	209	34	3	189	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	—	256	243	53	6	5	3	8	78	3	14	9	218	252	321	573	103	303	30	3	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	19	16	3	1	1	0	2	1	0	1	1	188	278	375	653	188	169	5	11	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	—	147	136	28	6	2	1	8	41	2	10	4	206	260	301	562	96	284	28	5	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	255	237	46	6	3	4	12	46	2	16	2	194	239	295	534	101	217	18	5	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	62	57	18	1	1	0	3	9	0	2	2	316	350	368	718	53	356	15	5	302	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	17	ROK MLE	GCL Yankees East	—	217	199	34	7	5	1	12	40	5	15	3	171	236	271	507	101	208	18	6	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	17	ROK RAW	GCL Yankees East	—	217	193	45	10	7	1	18	28	5	15	3	233	315	373	688	140	267	13	8	308	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	—	174	159	29	4	1	2	11	57	2	17	8	182	244	258	502	75	265	33	6	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	FCL Yankees	—	174	150	41	7	1	3	20	40	2	17	8	273	366	393	760	120	349	23	11	341	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	—	431	401	58	10	2	6	23	172	3	27	13	145	197	224	421	80	229	40	5	186	12	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	A RAW	Tampa Tarpons	—	431	389	79	14	2	8	35	123	3	27	13	203	274	311	585	108	271	29	8	265	12	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	447	429	65	12	5	7	13	151	1	16	6	152	178	252	430	100	211	34	3	189	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	A+ RAW	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	447	418	86	18	6	9	24	116	1	16	6	206	251	342	593	136	259	26	5	262	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	275	259	56	7	6	3	10	79	3	15	10	216	254	324	578	108	294	29	4	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	AA RAW	2 teams	—	275	255	64	8	6	4	14	66	3	15	10	251	298	376	674	125	319	24	5	298	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	402	373	74	12	4	5	20	87	4	26	6	198	247	292	539	94	242	22	5	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	402	363	83	14	5	7	30	69	4	26	6	229	295	353	647	124	261	17	7	289	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	62	57	18	1	1	0	3	9	0	2	2	316	350	368	718	53	375	15	5	302	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AA RAW	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	62	56	19	1	1	0	4	7	0	2	2	339	383	393	776	54	388	11	6	340	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	17	ROK MLE	GCL Yankees East	—	217	198	34	7	5	1	12	40	5	15	3	172	236	273	509	101	202	18	6	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	—	174	159	29	4	1	2	11	57	2	17	8	182	244	258	502	75	261	33	6	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	—	431	402	58	10	2	6	23	172	3	27	13	144	197	224	421	80	224	40	5	186	12	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	447	430	65	12	5	7	13	151	1	16	6	151	178	251	429	100	209	34	3	189	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	275	260	56	7	6	3	10	79	3	15	10	215	254	323	577	108	294	29	4	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	402	375	74	12	4	5	20	87	4	26	6	197	247	291	538	93	241	22	5	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	62	59	18	1	1	0	3	9	0	2	2	305	350	356	706	51	356	15	5	302	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	275	260	56	7	6	3	10	79	3	15	10	215	254	323	577	108	294	29	4	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	402	375	74	12	4	5	20	87	4	26	6	197	247	291	538	93	241	22	5	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	62	59	18	1	1	0	3	9	0	2	2	305	350	356	706	51	356	15	5	302	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	25	MLB MLE	CIN	2%	200	187	39	6	2	2	9	44	2	7	3	213	257	304	561	91	265	22	4	252	57	-10	+0	+0	+2	+4	-0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	25	MLB CTX	CIN	2%	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	215	258	308	566	93	266	33	0	254	57	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	CIN	31%	240	224	48	8	2	3	12	53	2	8	3	216	261	315	577	99	266	22	5	258	61	-11	+0	+0	+3	+5	-0.3
2029	27	MLB MLE	CIN	42%	298	279	61	10	3	4	15	66	2	10	4	217	263	317	581	101	267	22	5	260	62	-13	+0	+0	+3	+6	-0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	CIN	31%	74	69	15	2	1	1	4	16	1	3	1	218	263	320	583	102	267	22	5	261	61	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	CIN	42%	125	117	25	4	1	2	6	28	1	4	2	218	265	322	587	104	268	22	5	263	62	-6	+0	+0	+1	+3	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	199	186	40	6	2	3	10	44	2	7	3	215	263	317	580	102	264	22	5	262	40	-9	+0	+0	+2	+4	-0.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	608	132	20	7	10	33	144	7	23	10	217	266	322	588	105	267	22	5	262	40	-30	+1	+0	+7	+14	-0.8
Career	—	MLE		—	2688	2513	471	75	30	33	126	745	23	141	57	187	233	281	513	93	249	28	5	227	40	-32	+1	+0	+7	+15	-0.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	608	114	18	7	8	30	180	6	34	14	188	233	280	513	92	249	28	5	227	40	-30	+1	+0	+7	+14	-0.9

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1John McDonaldlast yr '14 career totals — 13 seasons, 2,596 PA	3.9	2,596	28	34	233	273	324	+20	+54	4.2	5.1
/162	664	7	9	+5.0	+13.9	1.1	pk7: 6
#2Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#3Chuck Cottier'59-'69 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,770 PA	2.7	1,770	19	28	219*	280*	330*	+7	+14	0.5	0.9
/162	664	7	11	+2.7	+5.3	0.2	pk7: 1
#4Jerry Kindall'56-'65 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,261 PA	3.4	2,261	44	17	212*	265*	339*	+9	+21	-0.7	0.4
/162	664	13	5	+2.7	+6.3	-0.2	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	0.3	203	3	7	217	261	318	+2	+3	-0.1	-0.0
/162	664	9	22	+7.1	+9.8	-0.3	pk7: 0
#5Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1
#6Billy Hunter'53-'58 * career totals — 6 seasons, 2,052 PA	3.1	2,052	16	23	213*	254*	312*	+20	+13	-2.7	-2.7
/162	664	5	7	+6.4	+4.3	-0.9	pk7: -3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Alexander Vargas (OGILVIE)	25	45	40	60	30	212/255/302	90	265	2	5	22%	5%	57	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Cal Conley 2024 · AA	25	42→48	40	53→55	42	206/259/296	90	272	7	22	26%	6%	57	-1.8	205/251/278	73	272	5	25	25%	5%	49	-2.4	199/245/268	69	263	4	27	25%	5%	42	-2.2
✕Carlos Garcia 2017 · AA	25	48→50	38→40	53→55	44	229/277/307	79	285	5	21	21%	6%	65	-1.2	217/267/318	101	267	10	15	22%	5%	65	-1.2	199/246/297	98	235	12	16	21%	5%	50	-1.1
✕Shannon Wilkerson 2013 · AA	25	44→50	39→40	54→55	39	213/248/299	86	274	7	18	25%	4%	53	-2.1	225/269/306	81	290	4	16	22%	5%	62	-1.4	234/270/304	70	288	2	12	19%	4%	58	-0.9
✕Jacob Hannemann 2016 · AA	25	43	40→45	58→60	39	208/252/303	95	288	6	19	30%	5%	55	-1.9	206/256/314	108	273	9	25	27%	5%	60	-1.6	191/243/289	98	251	9	29	27%	5%	48	-1.4
✕Tyler McDonough 2024 · AA	25	44→45	41→45	55	38	209/263/309	100	315	8	20	35%	6%	61	-1.5	213/272/317	104	312	9	18	33%	7%	67	-1.1	208/275/320	112	298	11	20	32%	7%	65	-0.8
✕Eliezer Mesa 2014 · AA	25	44→54	38→40	57→55	37	213/245/294	81	285	5	18	27%	4%	50	-2.3	238/271/323	85	300	6	12	22%	4%	66	-1.1	292/319/367	75	364	4	10	20%	3%	90	+0.2
✕J.P. Sportman 2017 · AA	25	48	39→45	53→50	40	229/263/316	87	287	5	15	22%	4%	62	-1.4	222/258/341	119	283	11	14	25%	4%	66	-1.1	217/253/344	127	274	13	14	26%	4%	63	-1.2
✕Ryan Strausborger 2013 · AA	25	46→47	40→45	61→55	40	220/267/323	103	286	6	21	25%	5%	65	-1.2	217/259/320	103	274	8	24	23%	5%	62	-1.4	218/261/315	98	273	9	30	23%	5%	59	-1.0
✕Corey Bird 2021 · AA	25	43→53	38→40	53→55	44	208/257/280	73	257	6	16	21%	6%	52	-2.2	218/280/330	112	286	10	18	26%	7%	73	-0.6	209/277/323	114	273	9	24	26%	8%	66	-0.6
✕Donnie Dewees 2019 · AAA	25	46→50	41→45	55→50	43	221/264/323	102	271	7	15	21%	5%	64	-1.3	216/273/348	132	254	13	11	20%	6%	74	-0.5	201/267/351	151	220	17	7	18%	7%	71	-0.6
✕Fidel Pena 2016 · A	25	45→43	41→45	50	38	218/249/320	102	278	7	12	24%	4%	58	-1.7	214/253/298	84	294	6	8	28%	5%	55	-2.0	203/238/262	59	280	5	4	28%	4%	37	-1.8
✕D.J. Burt 2021 · AA	25	44→51	38→40	55→65	43	210/266/290	80	289	6	26	28%	7%	58	-1.7	231/295/314	83	314	5	36	26%	8%	74	-0.5	237/305/311	73	319	4	49	25%	9%	74	-0.3
✕Brodie Greene 2013 · AA	25	47→48	39→40	52→50	45	225/273/311	86	267	6	16	18%	6%	65	-1.2	212/259/280	68	248	4	10	15%	6%	52	-2.2	207/254/258	52	239	3	7	14%	6%	44	-1.7
✕Chris Roller 2022 · AA	25	40	39→45	53→55	40	192/250/279	87	274	5	16	31%	6%	50	-2.3	189/266/297	108	285	10	16	35%	8%	61	-1.5	173/257/287	114	273	12	16	38%	8%	54	-1.2
✕J.T. Arruda 2023 · A	25	42	40	56→55	47	200/275/295	95	290	7	17	31%	9%	63	-1.4	204/275/290	86	289	6	20	29%	8%	62	-1.4	207/270/292	85	284	7	22	28%	7%	58	-1.0
✕Hunter Jones 2017 · AA	25	45→55	39→40	55	41	214/269/299	85	286	6	22	26%	6%	61	-1.5	218/273/311	93	283	7	14	24%	6%	65	-1.2	212/268/303	91	273	7	12	24%	6%	60	-1.0
✕Chad Oberacker 2014 · AA	25	42→50	44→45	59→50	43	208/260/332	124	266	10	16	25%	6%	65	-1.2	210/259/306	96	270	6	15	23%	6%	59	-1.7	210/258/293	83	267	4	16	22%	6%	53	-1.0
✕Jeff Dominguez 2012 · AAA	26	46→51	41→40	51→50	41	226/267/324	98	287	8	15	24%	5%	66	-1.1	221/263/320	99	287	8	12	25%	5%	63	-1.3	210/249/305	95	272	7	10	25%	5%	51	-1.3
✕Gustavo Nunez 2013 · AA	25	47→57	37→40	50→55	41	223/264/299	76	285	5	17	23%	5%	59	-1.7	230/268/291	61	297	4	15	22%	5%	57	-1.8	256/295/311	55	310	3	18	18%	5%	69	-0.6
✕Jovanny Rosario 2011 · AAA	26	48→51	37→40	57→60	38	228/255/300	72	292	4	20	23%	4%	55	-2.0	245/287/334	89	313	5	32	22%	5%	76	-0.4	258/302/348	90	332	3	45	22%	5%	80	-0.1

Alexander Vargas

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps