Orlando Barrios prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Orlando Barrios P FCL Rays

Age 24 RHP 6'6" / 180 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 7 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.47

FIP4.47

K%22.9%

BB%10.1%

K-BB%12.9%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 7 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rays 1	14	1	24	125	26	19	0	7%	1.7	14.1%	19.0%	-4.9%	0.0%	6.46	4.31	—
2019	17	ROK RAW	DSL Rays 1	14	1	24	125	26	19	0	7%	1.7	20.8%	15.2%	5.6%	0.0%	6.46	3.31	—
2021	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rays 2	13	10	49	203	37	13	3	77%	3.7	12.4%	8.0%	4.4%	2.3%	4.25	4.34	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	DSL Rays 2	13	10	49	203	37	13	3	77%	3.7	18.2%	6.4%	11.8%	1.5%	4.25	3.18	—
2022	20	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	12	1	31	132	28	12	1	8%	2.6	14.4%	11.4%	3.1%	1.2%	2.59	3.97	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	FCL Rays	12	1	31	132	28	12	1	8%	2.6	21.2%	9.1%	12.1%	0.8%	2.59	2.88	—
2023	21	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	12	0	13	63	11	7	2	0%	1.1	11.9%	13.9%	-2.0%	4.9%	4.72	6.53	—
2023	21	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	12	0	13	63	11	7	2	0%	1.1	11.9%	13.9%	-2.0%	4.9%	4.72	6.53	—
2023	21	ROK RAW	FCL Rays	12	0	13	63	11	7	2	0%	1.1	17.5%	11.1%	6.3%	3.2%	4.72	4.97	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	24	MLB	TB	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.9%	10.1%	12.9%	3.0%	4.47	4.47	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	TB	19	0	20	84	20	8	3	0%	1.1	23.4%	9.6%	13.8%	3.0%	4.40	4.36	+0.0
2027	25	MLB CTX	TB	9	0	9	38	9	4	1	0%	1.0	23.4%	9.6%	13.8%	3.0%	4.40	4.36	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	9	36	8	3	1	0%	1.1	23.4%	9.6%	13.8%	3.0%	4.40	3.98	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	187	70	23	0%	1.1	23.4%	9.6%	13.8%	3.0%	4.40	3.98	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		51	12	117	523	69	64	9	24%	2.3	13.3%	12.2%	1.1%	1.8%	4.31	4.50	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		87	21	200	894	119	109	16	24%	2.3	13.3%	12.2%	1.1%	1.8%	4.31	4.50	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Orlando Barrios (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.47	22.9%	10.1%	3.0%	—	4.36	23.4%	13.8%	20	-0.11	—	—	—
Jonathan Papelbon R 2005 · 3.93 FIP	24	SW	3.93	23.0%	10.1%	2.7%	.305	1.90	31.3%	26.8%	196	-2.03	1.33	726	86
Ryan Conroy R 2021 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	22.2%	9.8%	2.8%	.353	4.75	19.3%	6.7%	54	+0.74	4.01	106	81
Trent Fennell R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	23	SW	4.08	20.6%	12.2%	2.1%	.328	5.52	19.4%	3.5%	107	+1.44	4.08	163	81
Garrett Mock R 2008 · 3.57 FIP	25	SU	3.57	25.6%	11.1%	2.2%	.300	4.06	17.1%	7.4%	91	+0.49	3.57	132	80
Grant Balfour R 2003 · 4.13 FIP	25	SU	4.13	26.1%	10.4%	3.5%	.275	3.79	24.4%	12.8%	39	-0.34	2.04	533	80
Kyle Zimmer R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	23	SW	3.74	21.8%	8.6%	2.5%	.293	4.55	20.4%	9.0%	33	+0.81	2.08	276	79
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	79
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	78
Tyler Mitzel R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	24.1%	12.0%	3.2%	.245	4.10	22.4%	14.3%	96	-0.24	4.03	142	78
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	78
Carlo Reyes R 2022 · 4.06 FIP	24	SW	4.06	20.4%	8.6%	2.9%	.318	3.92	24.1%	12.9%	61	-0.14	2.60	229	78
Billy Corcoran R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	19.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.308	5.26	16.4%	8.7%	208	+1.06	4.20	277	77
Brendan Collins R 2022 · 3.67 FIP	22	SW	3.67	21.8%	10.3%	2.0%	.294	3.86	20.2%	5.1%	54	+0.19	3.67	122	77
Stolmy Pimentel R 2014 · 4.13 FIP	24	SU	4.13	25.7%	9.5%	3.6%	.319	4.17	14.8%	4.3%	143	+0.04	3.87	176	77
Chris Jefferson R 2022 · 3.53 FIP	25	SU	3.53	22.4%	10.2%	1.9%	.330	4.99	16.5%	3.9%	101	+1.46	3.53	140	76
Danny Hrbek R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	24	SU	3.98	21.3%	7.5%	3.1%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	100	76
Kyle Schepel R 2015 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	23.1%	10.7%	3.9%	.233	3.64	22.1%	10.4%	120	-0.99	3.54	156	76
Kyle Bischoff R 2023 · 5.26 FIP	24	SU	5.26	23.6%	11.8%	4.8%	.240	3.83	21.8%	8.7%	140	-1.43	3.21	162	76
Nolan Clenney R 2021 · 3.73 FIP	25	SU	3.73	25.5%	8.4%	3.1%	.340	4.35	22.4%	13.7%	185	+0.62	3.73	223	75
Jeff Niemann R 2008 · 5.04 FIP	25	SW	5.04	18.4%	10.5%	4.0%	.294	4.16	17.4%	10.3%	490	-0.88	2.96	544	75