Gabriel Jackson — OGILVIE

Gabriel Jackson P Portland Sea Dogs

Age 25 RHP 6'2" / 180 lbs AA

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 24 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 118

ERA5.31

FIP5.31

K%15.0%

BB%11.9%

K-BB%3.1%

ROS IP24

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 24 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox 1	14	14	59	262	38	27	0	100%	4.2	9.9%	12.9%	-3.0%	0.0%	3.49	3.90	—
2019	17	ROK RAW	DSL Red Sox 1	14	14	59	262	38	27	0	100%	4.2	14.5%	10.3%	4.2%	0.0%	3.49	3.18	—
2021	19	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	10	2	18	81	17	11	1	20%	1.8	14.3%	17.0%	-2.7%	1.8%	3.57	5.04	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	FCL Red Sox	10	2	18	81	17	11	1	20%	1.8	21.0%	13.6%	7.4%	1.2%	3.57	3.78	—
2022	20	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	25	13	94	430	65	39	6	52%	3.8	11.2%	10.7%	0.5%	2.1%	5.27	4.65	—
2022	20	A RAW	Salem Red Sox	25	13	94	430	65	39	6	52%	3.8	15.1%	9.1%	6.0%	1.4%	5.27	3.79	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	4	69	293	47	23	4	14%	2.4	11.7%	8.8%	2.8%	2.0%	3.38	4.36	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	4	69	293	47	23	4	14%	2.4	16.0%	7.8%	8.2%	1.4%	3.38	3.49	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	2	78	357	66	36	10	7%	2.6	13.5%	12.0%	1.5%	3.2%	4.83	5.24	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	2	78	357	66	36	10	7%	2.6	13.5%	12.0%	1.5%	3.2%	4.83	5.24	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	2	78	357	66	36	10	7%	2.6	18.5%	10.1%	8.4%	2.8%	4.83	4.45	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	1	32	147	17	18	2	6%	2.0	8.9%	13.8%	-4.8%	1.6%	4.50	4.95	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	1	32	147	17	18	2	6%	2.0	8.9%	13.8%	-4.8%	1.6%	4.50	4.95	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	1	32	147	17	18	2	6%	2.0	11.6%	12.2%	-0.7%	1.4%	4.50	4.54	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	BOS	23	0	24	101	15	12	3	0%	1.0	15.0%	11.9%	3.1%	2.9%	5.31	5.31	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	BOS	27	0	29	122	21	14	4	0%	1.1	17.0%	11.6%	5.4%	2.9%	5.15	5.11	-0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	BOS	12	0	13	55	9	6	2	0%	1.1	17.0%	11.6%	5.4%	2.9%	5.15	5.11	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		12	0	13	53	9	6	2	0%	1.1	17.0%	11.6%	5.4%	2.9%	5.15	4.73	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	143	95	32	0%	1.1	17.0%	11.6%	5.4%	2.9%	5.15	4.73	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		124	36	351	1570	181	182	30	29%	2.8	11.5%	11.6%	-0.1%	1.9%	4.34	4.65	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		71	21	200	895	103	104	17	29%	2.8	11.5%	11.6%	-0.1%	1.9%	4.34	4.65	-1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Gabriel Jackson (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.31	15.0%	11.9%	2.9%	—	5.11	17.0%	5.4%	29	-0.20	—	—	—
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	85
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	84
Jeff Niemann R 2008 · 5.04 FIP	25	SW	5.04	18.4%	10.5%	4.0%	.294	4.16	17.4%	10.3%	490	-0.88	2.96	544	82
Brad Allen R 2015 · 4.25 FIP	26	SW	4.25	14.0%	12.6%	1.3%	.315	5.82	14.7%	1.5%	87	+1.57	4.25	149	82
Ryan Vogelsong R 2001 · 5.34 FIP	24	SU	5.34	14.6%	11.6%	3.7%	.287	4.78	14.9%	5.7%	155	-0.56	3.14	1,184	81
Raymar Navarro R 2016 · 4.30 FIP	25	SW	4.30	13.1%	11.7%	1.5%	.332	4.29	11.8%	1.0%	41	-0.01	4.29	108	80
Cameron Foster R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	25	SW	4.83	17.4%	11.5%	3.2%	.321	3.09	25.5%	17.5%	60	-1.74	2.50	213	80
Cullen Kafka R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	24	SW	4.95	14.2%	12.1%	2.8%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.64	148	80
Lucas Harrell R 2010 · 4.65 FIP	25	SW	4.65	12.6%	13.4%	1.7%	.372	4.24	15.1%	5.1%	365	-0.41	2.81	541	80
Cooper Adams R 2024 · 5.42 FIP	24	SW	5.42	13.0%	12.2%	3.4%	.275	4.32	21.7%	10.4%	141	-1.10	3.05	221	79
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	79
Danny Kirwin R 2024 · 4.19 FIP	24	SW	4.19	17.9%	9.9%	2.4%	.262	5.33	16.8%	4.6%	91	+1.14	4.16	161	78
Ross Ohlendorf R 2008 · 4.73 FIP	25	SW	4.73	16.3%	9.3%	3.3%	.357	4.63	15.4%	7.7%	324	-0.10	3.30	617	77
Paulshawn Pasqualotto R 2024 · 4.84 FIP	23	SW	4.84	15.6%	9.5%	3.4%	.354	3.77	20.2%	10.8%	111	-1.07	3.73	186	77
Robbie Peto R 2023 · 5.75 FIP	25	SW	5.75	15.3%	13.4%	4.1%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	5.39	232	77
Wilton Lopez R 2009 · 5.62 FIP	26	SW	5.62	9.3%	8.2%	4.1%	.368	2.79	19.5%	16.6%	204	-2.83	2.51	299	77
Sam Dyson R 2013 · 5.40 FIP	25	SW	5.40	9.3%	7.4%	3.9%	.326	2.94	20.5%	13.5%	188	-2.46	2.65	386	76
Jake Bray R 2018 · 5.37 FIP	25	SP-	5.37	15.4%	11.2%	3.9%	.294	5.65	20.5%	7.7%	61	+0.28	2.51	198	76
Jeremy Guthrie R 2006 · 4.92 FIP	27	SU	4.92	15.1%	15.1%	2.1%	.349	4.57	14.8%	8.1%	566	-0.35	4.08	1,834	76
Tristan Stevens R 2023 · 4.14 FIP	25	SW	4.14	17.3%	8.2%	2.7%	.411	3.68	15.0%	7.7%	91	-0.46	3.68	126	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 754 reliever careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	26	16.1%	11.7%	1.12	5.22
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Will Cunnane ('04)	1.4	46	18.9%	10.4%	1.25	5.26
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Tom Martin ('07)	1.6	53	15.8%	10.1%	1.02	4.92