Jake Smith — OGILVIE

Jake Smith P Pensacola Blue Wahoos

Age 27 RHP 6'4" / 195 lbs AA

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 70 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 148140vR 132

ERA6.07

FIP6.07

K%18.1%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%-1.9%

ROS IP70

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL2020

CMD3535

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	21	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	5	3	11	53	13	3	4	60%	2.3	18.9%	6.5%	12.4%	10.2%	5.56	7.94	—
2021	21	A+ RAW	Tri-City Dust Devils	5	3	11	53	13	3	4	60%	2.3	24.5%	5.7%	18.9%	7.5%	5.56	6.19	—
2022	22	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	27	7	68	296	78	30	6	26%	2.5	20.3%	11.7%	8.6%	3.1%	3.72	4.57	—
2022	22	A+ RAW	Tri-City Dust Devils	27	7	68	296	78	30	6	26%	2.5	26.4%	10.1%	16.2%	2.0%	3.72	3.28	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	29	0	32	176	37	27	4	0%	1.1	16.2%	17.6%	-1.5%	2.9%	10.86	5.54	—
2023	23	A+ RAW	Tri-City Dust Devils	29	0	32	176	37	27	4	0%	1.1	21.0%	15.3%	5.7%	2.3%	10.86	4.92	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	53	260	62	42	4	0%	1.4	18.5%	18.7%	-0.2%	2.2%	6.66	5.13	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	53	260	62	42	4	0%	1.4	18.5%	18.7%	-0.2%	2.2%	6.66	5.13	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	0	53	260	62	42	4	0%	1.4	23.8%	16.2%	7.7%	1.5%	6.66	4.13	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	57	255	60	48	5	0%	1.5	18.3%	21.3%	-3.0%	2.5%	3.92	5.60	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	57	255	60	48	5	0%	1.5	18.3%	21.3%	-3.0%	2.5%	3.92	5.60	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	0	57	255	60	48	5	0%	1.5	23.5%	18.8%	4.7%	2.0%	3.92	4.65	—
2026	26	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	5	0	5	36	6	11	2	0%	1.0	16.7%	30.6%	-13.9%	5.6%	10.80	8.61	—
2026	26	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	5	0	5	36	6	11	2	0%	1.0	16.7%	30.6%	-13.9%	5.6%	10.80	8.61	—
2026	26	AA RAW	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	5	0	5	36	6	11	2	0%	1.0	16.7%	30.6%	-13.9%	5.6%	10.80	12.50	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	MIA	67	0	70	296	54	59	9	0%	1.0	18.1%	20.0%	-1.9%	2.9%	6.07	6.07	-1.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	MIA	65	0	68	287	53	55	9	0%	1.0	18.5%	19.1%	-0.6%	3.0%	5.94	5.98	-1.0
2029	29	MLB MLE	MIA	62	0	65	274	51	51	9	0%	1.0	18.6%	18.6%	0.1%	3.1%	5.92	5.98	-1.0
2028	28	MLB CTX	MIA	25	0	26	110	20	21	3	0%	1.0	18.5%	19.1%	-0.6%	3.0%	5.94	5.98	-0.4
2029	29	MLB CTX	MIA	34	0	36	152	28	28	5	0%	1.1	18.6%	18.6%	0.1%	3.1%	5.92	5.98	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		59	0	62	260	48	49	8	0%	1.0	18.6%	18.8%	-0.2%	3.1%	5.93	5.60	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	156	159	26	0%	1.1	18.6%	18.8%	-0.2%	3.1%	5.93	5.60	-2.5
Career	—	MLE		143	10	226	1076	199	183	34	7%	1.6	18.5%	17.0%	1.5%	3.1%	5.73	5.41	-2.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		126	9	200	951	176	162	30	7%	1.6	18.5%	17.0%	1.5%	3.1%	5.73	5.41	-3.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jake Smith (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.07	18.1%	20.0%	2.9%	—	5.98	18.6%	-0.2%	133	-0.09	—	—	—
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	82
Trey Haley R 2016 · 4.98 FIP	26	SU	4.98	14.0%	16.5%	1.8%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	3.14	111	82
Haden Erbe R 2024 · 5.28 FIP	25	SU	5.28	18.4%	16.5%	3.0%	.320	5.19	17.8%	0.5%	40	-0.09	5.19	116	80
Mitchell Stumpo R 2023 · 6.35 FIP	27	SU	6.35	20.6%	20.8%	4.3%	.368	4.77	22.6%	15.5%	34	-1.58	3.97	158	79
Mike Hepple R 2016 · 5.75 FIP	26	SU	5.75	11.1%	18.5%	2.3%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	116	78
Jeff Soptic R 2016 · 5.52 FIP	25	SU	5.52	13.6%	15.3%	3.0%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	5.30	124	78
Jordan Gore R 2022 · 5.37 FIP	27	SU	5.37	15.2%	18.5%	2.2%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	113	78
Hunter Dollander R 2023 · 6.77 FIP	26	SU	6.77	17.6%	18.3%	5.2%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	106	78
Livan Reinoso R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	25	SU	4.90	15.1%	17.7%	1.5%	.229	5.67	16.1%	-2.1%	99	+0.77	4.36	219	77
Chris Jefferson R 2024 · 5.65 FIP	27	SU	5.65	16.4%	13.6%	4.0%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	140	77
Roman Phansalkar R 2024 · 5.39 FIP	26	SU	5.39	15.8%	13.2%	3.6%	.294	4.33	18.2%	3.7%	31	-1.06	4.33	164	77
Vic Black R 2015 · 5.28 FIP	27	SU	5.28	17.5%	19.3%	2.2%	.358	6.03	9.0%	-11.6%	29	+0.75	3.16	107	77
Kevin Gryboski R 2002 · 5.02 FIP	28	SU	5.02	13.9%	13.4%	2.5%	.263	3.83	12.0%	2.9%	126	-1.19	3.67	178	77
Connor Law R 2021 · 6.15 FIP	27	SU	6.15	16.2%	17.2%	4.1%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	110	76
Stevie Branche R 2024 · 5.67 FIP	27	SU	5.67	19.3%	17.6%	3.6%	.320	—	—	—	—	—	3.23	162	76
Tyler Davis R 2024 · 6.02 FIP	25	SU	6.02	21.0%	18.8%	4.2%	.317	3.78	21.9%	10.2%	111	-2.24	3.20	137	76
Matt Lollis R 2016 · 4.95 FIP	25	SU	4.95	19.2%	14.5%	3.0%	.221	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	120	76
Nelson Gonzalez R 2017 · 5.00 FIP	27	SU	5.00	15.3%	13.7%	2.6%	.239	5.79	17.4%	6.7%	96	+0.79	3.42	258	76
Cre Finfrock R 2022 · 6.31 FIP	26	SU	6.31	16.7%	25.2%	2.6%	.309	—	—	—	—	—	4.27	103	76
Mitchell Osnowitz R 2017 · 5.30 FIP	26	SU	5.30	16.5%	18.7%	2.2%	.366	5.43	19.2%	7.7%	42	+0.13	4.54	132	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 754 reliever careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	68	18.4%	19.2%	1.16	5.98
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Paul Spoljaric ('00)	1.4	69	22.1%	12.9%	1.33	5.52
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68