Jake Smith
P
Pensacola Blue Wahoos
Age 26
RHP
6'4" / 195 lbs
AA
2026 ROS PROJECTION5 act + 70 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 159150vR 141
ERA6.27
FIP6.27
K%17.6%
BB%21.6%
K-BB%-4.0%
ROS IP70
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 75 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | A+ | Tri-City Dust Devils | 5 | 3 | 11 | 53 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 60% | 2.3 | 18.9% | 6.5% | 12.4% | 11.2% | 5.56 | 8.45 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A+ | Tri-City Dust Devils | 5 | 3 | 11 | 53 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 60% | 2.3 | 24.5% | 5.7% | 18.9% | 7.5% | 5.56 | 6.19 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | Tri-City Dust Devils | 27 | 7 | 68 | 296 | 78 | 30 | 6 | 26% | 2.5 | 20.3% | 11.7% | 8.6% | 4.0% | 3.72 | 5.07 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | Tri-City Dust Devils | 27 | 7 | 68 | 296 | 78 | 30 | 6 | 26% | 2.5 | 26.4% | 10.1% | 16.2% | 2.0% | 3.72 | 3.28 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Tri-City Dust Devils | 29 | 0 | 32 | 176 | 37 | 27 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.2% | 17.6% | -1.5% | 2.9% | 10.86 | 5.56 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Tri-City Dust Devils | 29 | 0 | 32 | 176 | 37 | 27 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.0% | 15.3% | 5.7% | 2.3% | 10.86 | 4.92 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 0 | 53 | 260 | 62 | 42 | 4 | 0% | 1.4 | 18.5% | 18.7% | -0.2% | 2.4% | 6.66 | 5.25 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 0 | 53 | 260 | 62 | 42 | 4 | 0% | 1.4 | 23.8% | 16.2% | 7.7% | 1.5% | 6.66 | 4.13 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 57 | 255 | 60 | 48 | 5 | 0% | 1.5 | 18.3% | 21.3% | -3.0% | 2.5% | 3.92 | 5.60 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 57 | 255 | 60 | 48 | 5 | 0% | 1.5 | 23.5% | 18.8% | 4.7% | 2.0% | 3.92 | 4.65 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | 5 | 0 | 5 | 36 | 6 | 11 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | 10.80 | — | — |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | MIA | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 52 | 64 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.6% | 21.6% | -4.0% | 2.8% | 6.27 | 6.27 | -1.2 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | MIA | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.6% | 21.6% | -4.0% | 2.8% | 6.27 | 6.27 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 75 | 332 | 58 | 75 | 10 | — | — | 17.5% | 22.6% | -5.1% | 3.1% | 6.57 | 5.85 | -0.9 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 17.6% | 21.6% | -4.0% | 2.8% | 6.27 | 5.89 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | MIA | 66 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 53 | 60 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.2% | 20.4% | -2.3% | 2.9% | 6.10 | 6.11 | -1.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | MIA | 64 | 0 | 67 | 282 | 52 | 56 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.4% | 19.7% | -1.3% | 3.0% | 6.02 | 6.06 | -1.1 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | MIA | 25 | 0 | 26 | 110 | 20 | 22 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.2% | 20.4% | -2.3% | 2.9% | 6.10 | 6.11 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | MIA | 38 | 0 | 40 | 169 | 31 | 33 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.4% | 19.7% | -1.3% | 3.0% | 6.02 | 6.06 | -0.7 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 64 | 0 | 67 | 284 | 52 | 57 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.3% | 20.0% | -1.7% | 2.9% | 6.06 | 5.70 | -0.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 155 | 170 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.3% | 20.0% | -1.7% | 2.9% | 6.06 | 5.70 | -0.7 | ||
| Career | — | 143 | 10 | 226 | 1076 | 199 | 183 | 38 | 7% | 1.6 | 18.5% | 17.0% | 1.5% | 3.5% | 5.73 | 5.61 | -0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 126 | 9 | 200 | 951 | 176 | 162 | 33 | 7% | 1.6 | 18.5% | 17.0% | 1.5% | 3.5% | 5.73 | 5.61 | -0.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jake Smith (OGILVIE) | — | — | 6.27 | 17.6% | 21.6% | 2.8% | — | 6.09 | 18.3% | -1.8% | 136 | -0.18 | — | — | — |
| Josh Harlow R 2024 · 5.71 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.71 | 17.1% | 21.3% | 2.5% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.52 | 107 | 85 |
| Livan Reinoso R 2026 · 5.59 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.59 | 15.9% | 21.2% | 2.1% | .215 | 5.18 | 17.4% | 3.4% | 33 | -0.41 | 4.34 | 207 | 83 |
| Mike Hepple R 2026 · 5.74 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.74 | 11.1% | 18.5% | 2.2% | .271 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 116 | 81 |
| Haden Erbe R 2026 · 5.49 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.49 | 17.8% | 17.3% | 3.1% | .240 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.17 | 116 | 81 |
| Jeff Soptic R 2025 · 5.45 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.45 | 13.6% | 15.3% | 2.8% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.27 | 124 | 81 |
| Julian Arballo R 2027 · 5.47 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.47 | 15.1% | 13.8% | 3.5% | .335 | 4.38 | 12.6% | 0.6% | 116 | -1.09 | 4.28 | 214 | 80 |
| Cre Finfrock R 2026 · 6.27 FIP | 26 | SU | 6.27 | 16.7% | 25.2% | 2.5% | .309 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.27 | 103 | 80 |
| Tyler Bradt R 2024 · 5.09 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.09 | 19.0% | 18.7% | 2.2% | .241 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 135 | 79 |
| Hunter Dollander R 2026 · 6.73 FIP | 26 | SU | 6.73 | 17.6% | 18.3% | 5.1% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 106 | 78 |
| Alejandro Torres R 2025 · 6.52 FIP | 25 | SU | 6.52 | 18.3% | 20.1% | 4.4% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 103 | 78 |
| Christopher Troye R 2026 · 5.50 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.50 | 19.1% | 22.9% | 2.0% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.42 | 158 | 78 |
| Jesús Reyes R 2026 · 5.80 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.80 | 15.9% | 15.7% | 3.7% | .283 | 5.04 | 17.5% | 5.6% | 118 | -0.76 | 3.79 | 554 | 78 |
| Eli Villalobos R 2026 · 5.85 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.85 | 18.0% | 18.6% | 3.5% | .316 | 6.37 | 19.9% | 7.1% | 36 | +0.52 | 3.79 | 214 | 78 |
| Leandro Linares R 2024 · 5.59 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.59 | 16.2% | 22.0% | 2.0% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.93 | 134 | 78 |
| Mitchell Osnowitz R 2026 · 5.36 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.36 | 16.5% | 18.7% | 2.3% | .366 | 5.45 | 19.2% | 7.7% | 42 | +0.09 | 4.47 | 132 | 78 |
| J.C. Flowers R 2026 · 5.38 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.38 | 15.3% | 18.5% | 2.2% | .259 | 6.38 | 17.8% | 4.4% | 18 | +1.00 | 3.39 | 281 | 77 |
| Luke Savage R 2024 · 5.70 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.70 | 15.0% | 17.7% | 3.0% | .358 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 117 | 77 |
| Roman Phansalkar R 2026 · 5.61 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.61 | 15.8% | 13.2% | 4.0% | .294 | 4.31 | 18.2% | 3.7% | 31 | -1.30 | 4.31 | 164 | 77 |
| Cody Tucker R 2026 · 5.11 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.11 | 15.8% | 17.7% | 2.0% | .350 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.98 | 105 | 77 |
| Harrison Cooney R 2026 · 6.57 FIP | 26 | SU | 6.57 | 18.8% | 21.9% | 4.2% | .237 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.82 | 186 | 76 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 69 | 18.1% | 20.6% | 1.12 | 6.13 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Kyle Barraclough ('19) | 5 | 50 | 29.0% | 14.1% | 0.86 | 3.53 |