Jake Smith
P
Pensacola Blue Wahoos
+0.0
WAR
Age 26
RHP
6'4" / 195 lbs
AA
ERA5.13
FIP5.13
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.8%
BB%14.8%
K-BB%6.0%
IP53
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
STUF4545
CTRL2020
CMD3535
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | A+ | Tri-City Dust Devils | 5 | 3 | 11 | 53 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 18.9% | 6.5% | 10.4% | 5.56 | 8.02 | -0.4 |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | Tri-City Dust Devils | 27 | 7 | 68 | 296 | 78 | 30 | 6 | 20.3% | 11.7% | 3.3% | 3.72 | 4.65 | +0.3 |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Tri-City Dust Devils | 29 | 0 | 32 | 176 | 37 | 27 | 4 | 16.2% | 17.6% | 2.9% | 10.86 | 5.54 | -0.2 |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Rocket City Trash Pandas | 38 | 0 | 53 | 260 | 62 | 42 | 4 | 18.5% | 18.7% | 2.2% | 6.66 | 5.11 | -0.1 |
| 2025 | 25 | AA | Rocket City Trash Pandas | 39 | 0 | 57 | 255 | 60 | 48 | 5 | 18.3% | 21.3% | 2.5% | 3.92 | 5.60 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | 4 | 0 | 3 | 24 | 5 | 7 | 2 | — | — | — | 18.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | MIA | 53 | — | 53 | 223 | 45 | 39 | 6 | 20.2% | 17.5% | 2.8% | 5.52 | 5.52 | -0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 26 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 56 | 247 | 50 | 46 | 8 | 20.2% | 18.6% | 3.3% | 6.19 | 5.22 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | MIA | 52 | — | 52 | 221 | 45 | 37 | 6 | 20.5% | 16.7% | 2.8% | 5.41 | 5.41 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | MIA | 52 | — | 52 | 218 | 45 | 35 | 6 | 20.7% | 16.2% | 2.9% | 5.34 | 5.36 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | MIA | 50 | — | 50 | 213 | 44 | 34 | 6 | 20.7% | 15.9% | 2.9% | 5.32 | 5.35 | -0.2 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | MIA | 49 | — | 49 | 206 | 42 | 33 | 6 | 20.6% | 15.8% | 3.0% | 5.35 | 5.39 | -0.2 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | MIA | 47 | — | 47 | 199 | 41 | 32 | 6 | 20.3% | 16.0% | 3.0% | 5.42 | 5.46 | -0.3 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | MIA | 45 | — | 45 | 191 | 38 | 31 | 6 | 20.1% | 16.1% | 3.1% | 5.50 | 5.55 | -0.3 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | MIA | 43 | — | 43 | 183 | 36 | 30 | 6 | 19.8% | 16.3% | 3.2% | 5.59 | 5.64 | -0.3 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | MIA | 41 | — | 41 | 174 | 34 | 29 | 6 | 19.4% | 16.5% | 3.3% | 5.69 | 5.75 | -0.4 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | MIA | 39 | — | 39 | 163 | 31 | 27 | 6 | 19.0% | 16.7% | 3.4% | 5.80 | 5.88 | -0.4 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | MIA | 36 | — | 36 | 153 | 28 | 26 | 5 | 18.6% | 17.0% | 3.5% | 5.93 | 6.01 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 142 | 10 | 224 | 1064 | 198 | 179 | 34 | 18.6% | 16.8% | 3.2% | 5.78 | 5.42 | -0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 127 | 9 | 200 | 949 | 177 | 160 | 30 | 18.6% | 16.8% | 3.2% | 5.78 | 5.42 | -0.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jake Smith (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.52 | 20.2% | 17.5% | 2.8% | — | 5.37 | 20.6% | 4.4% | 154 | -0.15 | — | — | — |
| Jake Gilbert R 2025 · 4.65 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.65 | 18.2% | 16.2% | 1.9% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.13 | 103 | 87 |
| Grant Black R 2027 · 4.46 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.46 | 19.0% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .327 | 5.46 | 15.2% | 3.1% | 156 | +1.00 | 4.46 | 215 | 85 |
| Juan Paniagua R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.58 | 17.7% | 14.7% | 2.0% | .246 | 4.73 | 12.9% | -1.0% | 29 | +0.15 | 4.58 | 151 | 84 |
| Preston Johnson R 2025 · 5.12 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.12 | 21.1% | 17.2% | 2.9% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.94 | 104 | 84 |
| Nolan Riggs R 2025 · 4.54 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.54 | 20.7% | 14.0% | 2.6% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.36 | 132 | 84 |
| Ryan Sublette R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.72 | 19.0% | 15.8% | 2.2% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.74 | 203 | 84 |
| Nick Ernst R 2025 · 5.04 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.04 | 21.9% | 14.6% | 3.5% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.55 | 117 | 83 |
| Michael Hobbs R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.48 | 21.2% | 19.2% | 1.3% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.14 | 184 | 83 |
| Matt Lollis R 2025 · 5.00 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.00 | 19.2% | 14.5% | 3.1% | .221 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.56 | 120 | 82 |
| Fernando Baez R 2025 · 5.36 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.36 | 24.3% | 21.2% | 2.9% | .271 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.45 | 129 | 82 |
| Haden Erbe R 2026 · 5.24 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.24 | 17.8% | 17.3% | 2.6% | .240 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.24 | 116 | 82 |
| Dusty Isaacs R 2026 · 5.28 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.28 | 19.3% | 14.1% | 3.7% | .287 | 3.16 | 26.8% | 20.6% | 26 | -2.12 | 3.16 | 253 | 82 |
| Josh Harlow R 2024 · 5.73 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.73 | 17.1% | 21.3% | 2.5% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.24 | 107 | 81 |
| Julian Arballo R 2027 · 5.14 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.14 | 15.1% | 13.8% | 2.9% | .335 | 4.48 | 12.6% | 0.6% | 116 | -0.66 | 4.42 | 214 | 81 |
| Cody Scroggins R 2025 · 4.50 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.50 | 20.5% | 16.2% | 2.0% | .351 | 3.77 | 14.2% | 4.6% | 18 | -0.73 | 3.77 | 108 | 81 |
| Tanner Jacobson R 2025 · 4.50 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.50 | 21.4% | 19.3% | 1.4% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.10 | 168 | 81 |
| Trey Haley R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.98 | 14.0% | 16.5% | 1.8% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.14 | 111 | 80 |
| Roman Phansalkar R 2026 · 5.36 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.36 | 15.8% | 13.2% | 3.5% | .294 | 4.33 | 18.2% | 3.7% | 31 | -1.03 | 4.33 | 164 | 80 |
| Tyler Bradt R 2024 · 4.97 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.97 | 19.0% | 18.7% | 2.0% | .241 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 135 | 80 |
| Mason Vinyard R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.41 | 21.8% | 14.5% | 2.4% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.60 | 154 | 80 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.