D.J. Carpenter — OGILVIE

D.J. Carpenter P Springfield Cardinals

Age 27 RHP 6'7" / 242 lbs AA

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 21 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 150142vR 134

ERA6.16

FIP6.16

K%16.8%

BB%16.1%

K-BB%0.7%

ROS IP21

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 21 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	4	0	4	17	6	2	0	0%	1.0	35.3%	11.8%	23.5%	0.0%	2.25	1.61	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	4	0	4	17	6	2	0	0%	1.0	35.3%	11.8%	23.5%	0.0%	2.25	1.60	—
2025	25	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	36	0	37	178	41	29	2	0%	1.0	17.7%	18.7%	-1.0%	1.6%	5.35	4.87	—
2025	25	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	36	0	37	178	41	29	2	0%	1.0	17.7%	18.7%	-1.0%	1.6%	5.35	4.87	—
2025	25	A+ RAW	Peoria Chiefs	36	0	37	178	41	29	2	0%	1.0	23.0%	16.3%	6.7%	1.1%	5.35	3.94	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	0	35	174	33	26	11	0%	1.0	14.9%	16.6%	-1.7%	7.6%	8.31	8.12	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	0	35	174	33	26	11	0%	1.0	14.9%	16.6%	-1.7%	7.6%	8.31	8.12	—
2026	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	0	35	174	33	26	11	0%	1.0	19.0%	14.9%	4.0%	6.3%	8.31	7.57	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	STL	20	0	21	89	15	14	3	0%	1.1	16.8%	16.1%	0.7%	3.8%	6.16	6.16	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	STL	20	0	20	87	15	13	3	0%	1.0	17.3%	15.6%	1.8%	3.8%	6.03	6.06	-0.3
2028	28	MLB CTX	STL	8	0	8	34	6	5	1	0%	1.0	17.3%	15.6%	1.8%	3.8%	6.03	6.06	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	0	8	33	6	5	1	0%	1.1	17.3%	15.6%	1.8%	3.8%	6.03	5.68	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	156	130	26	0%	1.1	17.3%	15.6%	1.8%	3.8%	6.03	5.68	-2.6
Career	—	MLE		74	0	76	369	64	64	16	0%	1.0	17.2%	17.4%	-0.2%	4.4%	6.54	6.26	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		196	0	200	975	168	170	43	0%	1.0	17.2%	17.4%	-0.2%	4.4%	6.54	6.26	-3.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
D.J. Carpenter (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.16	16.8%	16.1%	3.8%	—	6.06	17.3%	1.8%	20	-0.10	—	—	—
David Holman R 2017 · 5.53 FIP	27	SU	5.53	15.6%	12.7%	3.9%	.324	5.45	9.6%	0.5%	107	-0.08	5.28	129	86
Chris Jefferson R 2024 · 5.65 FIP	27	SU	5.65	16.4%	13.6%	4.0%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	140	84
Scott Proctor R 2004 · 5.43 FIP	27	SU	5.43	17.8%	11.9%	4.2%	.308	4.36	18.8%	11.0%	233	-1.07	3.68	337	83
Haden Erbe R 2024 · 5.28 FIP	25	SU	5.28	18.4%	16.5%	3.0%	.320	5.19	17.8%	0.5%	40	-0.09	5.19	116	83
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	82
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	82
Stevie Branche R 2024 · 5.67 FIP	27	SU	5.67	19.3%	17.6%	3.6%	.320	—	—	—	—	—	3.23	162	82
Kevin Gryboski R 2002 · 5.02 FIP	28	SU	5.02	13.9%	13.4%	2.5%	.263	3.83	12.0%	2.9%	126	-1.19	3.67	178	82
Connor Law R 2021 · 6.15 FIP	27	SU	6.15	16.2%	17.2%	4.1%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	110	81
Mitchell Stumpo R 2023 · 6.35 FIP	27	SU	6.35	20.6%	20.8%	4.3%	.368	4.77	22.6%	15.5%	34	-1.58	3.97	158	81
Tim Elliott R 2023 · 6.21 FIP	25	SU	6.21	15.5%	16.1%	4.3%	.338	—	—	—	—	—	5.54	138	81
Vic Black R 2015 · 5.28 FIP	27	SU	5.28	17.5%	19.3%	2.2%	.358	6.03	9.0%	-11.6%	29	+0.75	3.16	107	80
Luis García R 2014 · 5.50 FIP	27	SU	5.50	17.4%	18.8%	2.7%	.286	3.26	20.5%	11.4%	208	-2.24	2.33	662	80
Roman Phansalkar R 2024 · 5.39 FIP	26	SU	5.39	15.8%	13.2%	3.6%	.294	4.33	18.2%	3.7%	31	-1.06	4.33	164	79
Miguel Socolovich R 2012 · 5.65 FIP	26	SU	5.65	16.7%	12.5%	4.3%	.250	2.65	23.4%	14.8%	62	-3.00	2.65	299	79
Tyler Davis R 2024 · 6.02 FIP	25	SU	6.02	21.0%	18.8%	4.2%	.317	3.78	21.9%	10.2%	111	-2.24	3.20	137	79
Nelson Gonzalez R 2017 · 5.00 FIP	27	SU	5.00	15.3%	13.7%	2.6%	.239	5.79	17.4%	6.7%	96	+0.79	3.42	258	78
Harrison Cooney R 2018 · 6.60 FIP	26	SU	6.60	18.8%	21.9%	4.2%	.237	—	—	—	—	—	4.65	186	78
Brian Glowicki R 2022 · 5.39 FIP	27	SU	5.39	18.2%	15.9%	3.3%	.229	—	—	—	—	—	2.31	189	78
Trey Haley R 2016 · 4.98 FIP	26	SU	4.98	14.0%	16.5%	1.8%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	3.14	111	78