Nick Thwaits
P
Fort Wayne TinCaps
+0.4
WAR
Age 27
RHP
6'2" / 195 lbs
A+
peak 0.4 · 2026
ERA4.40
FIP4.40
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.9%
BB%9.5%
K-BB%13.4%
IP60
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2026
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | AZL Padres 1 | 8 | 5 | 26 | 109 | 35 | 10 | 0 | 21.8% | 11.5% | 0.0% | 2.42 | 2.71 | +0.7 |
| 2021 | 22 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | 22 | 18 | 87 | 400 | 87 | 35 | 9 | 16.1% | 10.3% | 3.8% | 7.03 | 5.13 | +0.1 |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | San Antonio Missions | 33 | 0 | 63 | 266 | 53 | 18 | 7 | 15.8% | 8.0% | 3.7% | 3.13 | 4.81 | +0.1 |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 33 | 0 | 60 | 266 | 57 | 30 | 5 | 16.2% | 13.1% | 2.6% | 4.22 | 4.79 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | SD | 60 | — | 60 | 252 | 58 | 24 | 8 | 22.9% | 9.5% | 3.0% | 4.40 | 4.40 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | SD | 59 | — | 59 | 248 | 57 | 24 | 8 | 22.9% | 9.5% | 3.0% | 4.40 | 4.41 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | SD | 58 | — | 58 | 243 | 55 | 23 | 7 | 22.8% | 9.6% | 3.1% | 4.43 | 4.45 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | SD | 56 | — | 56 | 236 | 53 | 23 | 7 | 22.6% | 9.7% | 3.1% | 4.48 | 4.51 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | SD | 54 | — | 54 | 227 | 51 | 22 | 7 | 22.4% | 9.8% | 3.2% | 4.54 | 4.58 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | SD | 52 | — | 52 | 218 | 48 | 22 | 7 | 22.1% | 9.9% | 3.3% | 4.61 | 4.66 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | SD | 49 | — | 49 | 208 | 45 | 21 | 7 | 21.8% | 10.1% | 3.4% | 4.70 | 4.76 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | SD | 47 | — | 47 | 198 | 42 | 20 | 7 | 21.5% | 10.3% | 3.5% | 4.80 | 4.87 | +0.0 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | SD | 44 | — | 44 | 186 | 39 | 20 | 7 | 21.1% | 10.5% | 3.6% | 4.92 | 4.99 | -0.0 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | SD | 41 | — | 41 | 174 | 36 | 19 | 6 | 20.6% | 10.8% | 3.7% | 5.04 | 5.13 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 96 | 23 | 236 | 1041 | 173 | 110 | 32 | 16.6% | 10.6% | 3.0% | 4.77 | 4.71 | +1.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 81 | 19 | 200 | 882 | 147 | 93 | 27 | 16.6% | 10.6% | 3.0% | 4.77 | 4.71 | +1.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Nick Thwaits (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.40 | 22.9% | 9.5% | 3.0% | — | 4.46 | 22.8% | 13.2% | 172 | +0.06 | — | — | — |
| Austin Ross R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.80 | 22.9% | 8.0% | 3.0% | .295 | 3.70 | 12.4% | 5.2% | 127 | -0.10 | 3.17 | 269 | 92 |
| Taylor Williams R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.48 | 24.2% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .309 | 4.33 | 22.5% | 12.7% | 108 | +0.85 | 2.36 | 309 | 89 |
| Jaye Chapman R 2027 · 3.34 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.34 | 21.6% | 8.5% | 1.8% | .276 | 4.07 | 20.3% | 11.3% | 85 | +0.73 | 3.25 | 150 | 89 |
| Trevin Michael R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.82 | 23.0% | 9.1% | 2.8% | .230 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 149 | 87 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2027 · 3.68 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.68 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .289 | 3.07 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -0.61 | 2.31 | 403 | 87 |
| Cody Satterwhite R 2027 · 3.72 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.72 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 2.0% | .333 | 4.05 | 17.7% | 10.2% | 75 | +0.33 | 3.70 | 147 | 86 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2027 · 3.91 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.91 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 2.9% | .348 | 3.55 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 86 | -0.36 | 2.38 | 160 | 86 |
| Steve Geltz R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.88 | 22.7% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .209 | 4.78 | 22.2% | 12.0% | 89 | +0.90 | 3.57 | 157 | 86 |
| Cole Sulser R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.54 | 22.6% | 10.2% | 1.9% | .321 | 2.87 | 28.2% | 18.4% | 140 | -0.67 | 2.39 | 509 | 86 |
| Brad Boxberger R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.86 | 27.3% | 10.0% | 3.3% | .280 | 4.05 | 28.5% | 17.2% | 107 | +0.19 | 3.02 | 363 | 86 |
| Simon Castro R 2026 · 3.26 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.26 | 26.4% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .320 | 3.48 | 26.0% | 17.6% | 128 | +0.22 | 3.07 | 185 | 86 |
| Ryan Kelly R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.50 | 20.3% | 7.5% | 2.1% | .241 | 3.22 | 20.8% | 14.2% | 43 | -0.28 | 2.49 | 131 | 86 |
| Jarret Whorff R 2025 · 3.84 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.84 | 21.6% | 8.2% | 2.8% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 206 | 85 |
| Nolan Clenney R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.81 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 4.2% | .341 | 4.59 | 17.2% | 7.5% | 71 | -0.22 | 3.74 | 223 | 85 |
| Ryan Garton R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.62 | 25.2% | 11.3% | 2.2% | .252 | 4.15 | 23.5% | 10.8% | 108 | +0.53 | 3.07 | 307 | 85 |
| Collin Baumgartner R 2025 · 3.76 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.76 | 23.9% | 12.3% | 2.0% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.99 | 117 | 85 |
| Bryan Shaw R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.91 | 20.4% | 6.8% | 3.0% | .276 | 3.53 | 23.3% | 15.0% | 198 | -0.38 | 2.86 | 596 | 85 |
| José A. Váldez R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.55 | 21.6% | 8.3% | 4.0% | .325 | 4.15 | 18.8% | 6.4% | 153 | -0.40 | 4.02 | 328 | 84 |
| Evan Gates R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.02 | 22.5% | 11.8% | 2.4% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.66 | 242 | 84 |
| Spencer Patton R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.49 | 26.8% | 9.6% | 2.6% | .295 | 2.83 | 30.3% | 18.1% | 57 | -0.66 | 2.83 | 239 | 83 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.