Nick Thwaits
P
Fort Wayne TinCaps
Age 27
RHP
6'2" / 195 lbs
A+
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 41 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119110vR 101
ERA4.41
FIP4.41
K%22.9%
BB%9.5%
K-BB%13.4%
ROS IP42
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 41 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | AZL Padres 1 | 8 | 5 | 26 | 109 | 35 | 10 | 0 | 62% | 3.2 | 21.8% | 11.5% | 10.4% | 0.0% | 2.42 | 2.71 | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | AZL Padres 1 | 8 | 5 | 26 | 109 | 35 | 10 | 0 | 62% | 3.2 | 32.1% | 9.2% | 22.9% | 0.0% | 2.42 | 1.56 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | 22 | 18 | 87 | 400 | 87 | 35 | 9 | 82% | 4.0 | 16.1% | 10.3% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 7.03 | 5.60 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | 22 | 18 | 87 | 400 | 87 | 35 | 9 | 82% | 4.0 | 21.8% | 8.8% | 13.0% | 2.2% | 7.03 | 3.65 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 0 | 63 | 266 | 53 | 18 | 7 | 0% | 1.9 | 15.8% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 4.0% | 3.13 | 4.99 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 0 | 63 | 266 | 53 | 18 | 7 | 0% | 1.9 | 19.9% | 6.8% | 13.2% | 2.6% | 3.13 | 3.72 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 0 | 60 | 266 | 57 | 30 | 5 | 0% | 1.8 | 16.2% | 13.1% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.22 | 5.09 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 0 | 60 | 266 | 57 | 30 | 5 | 0% | 1.8 | 21.4% | 11.3% | 10.2% | 1.9% | 4.22 | 3.79 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | SD | 40 | 0 | 42 | 176 | 40 | 17 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.9% | 9.5% | 13.4% | 3.0% | 4.41 | 4.41 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | SD | 39 | 0 | 40 | 171 | 39 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.8% | 9.6% | 13.2% | 3.1% | 4.45 | 4.48 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | SD | 37 | 0 | 39 | 163 | 37 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.6% | 9.8% | 12.8% | 3.3% | 4.54 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | SD | 35 | 0 | 36 | 154 | 34 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.3% | 10.1% | 12.2% | 3.4% | 4.67 | 4.76 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | SD | 14 | 0 | 15 | 63 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.8% | 9.6% | 13.2% | 3.1% | 4.45 | 4.48 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | SD | 20 | 0 | 21 | 89 | 20 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.6% | 9.8% | 12.8% | 3.3% | 4.54 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | SD | 24 | 0 | 25 | 106 | 24 | 11 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.3% | 10.1% | 12.2% | 3.4% | 4.67 | 4.76 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 58 | 0 | 61 | 257 | 58 | 25 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.5% | 9.9% | 12.7% | 3.3% | 4.57 | 4.26 | +0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 191 | 82 | 26 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.5% | 9.9% | 12.7% | 3.3% | 4.57 | 4.26 | +2.7 | ||
| Career | — | 96 | 23 | 236 | 1041 | 173 | 110 | 38 | 24% | 2.5 | 16.6% | 10.6% | 6.1% | 3.6% | 4.77 | 5.01 | +1.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 81 | 19 | 200 | 882 | 147 | 93 | 32 | 24% | 2.5 | 16.6% | 10.6% | 6.1% | 3.6% | 4.77 | 5.01 | +0.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Nick Thwaits (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.41 | 22.9% | 9.5% | 3.0% | — | 4.61 | 22.6% | 12.8% | 116 | +0.20 | — | — | — |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2027 · 4.14 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.14 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 3.3% | .348 | 3.66 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 86 | -0.48 | 2.38 | 160 | 83 |
| Taylor Grover R 2025 · 4.89 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.89 | 20.0% | 10.9% | 3.8% | .320 | 4.92 | 16.2% | 8.9% | 14 | +0.03 | 3.63 | 239 | 79 |
| Derek Gordon R 2024 · 4.72 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.72 | 19.9% | 9.3% | 3.9% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.72 | 146 | 79 |
| Edwin Quirarte R 2027 · 3.59 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.59 | 16.7% | 6.2% | 2.0% | .311 | 3.45 | 12.7% | 4.9% | 83 | -0.14 | 3.21 | 157 | 78 |
| Esmil Rogers R 2028 · 3.51 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.51 | 18.5% | 8.9% | 1.6% | .348 | 2.88 | 21.7% | 17.9% | 40 | -0.63 | 2.88 | 199 | 78 |
| Wil Jensen R 2025 · 3.41 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.41 | 22.7% | 8.4% | 2.1% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 368 | 77 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.13 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.7% | .315 | 5.25 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.12 | 4.13 | 115 | 77 |
| Austin Ross R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.86 | 22.9% | 8.0% | 3.1% | .295 | 3.60 | 12.4% | 5.2% | 127 | -0.26 | 3.19 | 269 | 76 |
| Jake Stinnett R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.07 | 21.1% | 12.2% | 2.2% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.88 | 356 | 76 |
| Caleb Bolden R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.55 | 23.0% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 222 | 76 |
| Bud Norris R 2029 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.90 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | .327 | 3.85 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -1.05 | 3.52 | 316 | 75 |
| Grant Black R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.49 | 19.0% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .327 | 5.46 | 15.2% | 3.1% | 156 | +0.97 | 4.49 | 215 | 75 |
| Jordan Lyles R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.89 | 22.6% | 6.7% | 3.4% | .284 | 4.94 | 20.2% | 12.1% | 379 | +1.05 | 3.38 | 1,080 | 75 |
| Jordan Milbrath R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.88 | 21.5% | 9.5% | 2.5% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.26 | 386 | 75 |
| Trevin Michael R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.08 | 23.0% | 9.1% | 3.2% | .230 | 3.59 | 23.5% | 7.2% | 40 | -0.49 | 2.74 | 188 | 75 |
| DJ Baxendale R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.68 | 18.1% | 6.0% | 2.4% | .355 | 5.84 | 20.0% | 8.3% | 49 | +2.16 | 2.81 | 426 | 74 |
| Jorge Reyes R 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.25 | 15.9% | 8.5% | 4.4% | .307 | 3.44 | 14.2% | 6.2% | 129 | -1.81 | 3.32 | 227 | 74 |
| Nolan Clenney R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.96 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 4.5% | .341 | 4.97 | 17.2% | 7.5% | 71 | +0.01 | 3.75 | 223 | 74 |
| Robert Kwiatkowski R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.01 | 18.3% | 9.0% | 2.4% | .255 | 4.31 | 15.9% | 2.3% | 20 | +0.30 | 4.01 | 254 | 74 |
| Dylan King R 2024 · 4.28 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.28 | 26.7% | 9.8% | 4.0% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.28 | 121 | 74 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 39 | 22.7% | 9.8% | 1.24 | 4.51 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |