Antoine Kelly — OGILVIE

Antoine Kelly P Iowa Cubs

Age 26 LHP 6'5" / 205 lbs AAA ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION51 act + 2 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110118vR 126

ERA4.88

FIP4.88

K%19.3%

BB%13.3%

K-BB%6.0%

ROS IP2

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 53 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	10	32	125	45	9	2	100%	3.2	25.8%	5.8%	20.0%	0.0%	2.84	1.65	—
2019	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	10	32	125	45	9	2	100%	3.2	36.0%	7.2%	28.8%	1.6%	2.84	1.93	—
2021	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	9	8	19	94	27	19	0	89%	2.1	22.5%	23.9%	-1.4%	0.0%	9.78	4.23	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	9	8	19	94	27	19	0	89%	2.1	28.7%	20.2%	8.5%	0.0%	9.78	3.26	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	24	110	474	143	71	6	92%	4.2	23.4%	17.0%	6.4%	1.8%	4.43	4.26	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	24	110	474	143	71	6	92%	4.2	30.2%	15.0%	15.2%	1.3%	4.43	3.15	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	0	57	246	79	23	4	0%	1.2	25.8%	11.2%	14.6%	2.3%	2.04	3.58	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	0	57	246	79	23	4	0%	1.2	25.8%	11.2%	14.6%	2.3%	2.04	3.58	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	0	57	246	79	23	4	0%	1.2	32.1%	9.3%	22.8%	1.6%	2.04	2.45	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	0	26	139	34	32	3	0%	0.9	19.8%	20.8%	-1.0%	2.2%	9.35	5.30	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	0	26	139	34	32	3	0%	0.9	19.8%	20.8%	-1.0%	2.2%	9.35	5.30	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	0	26	139	34	32	3	0%	0.9	24.5%	23.0%	1.4%	2.2%	9.35	5.68	—
2025	25	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	34	0	38	193	41	26	2	0%	1.1	17.6%	12.1%	5.5%	1.1%	5.63	3.76	—
2025	25	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	34	0	38	193	41	26	2	0%	1.1	17.6%	12.1%	5.5%	1.1%	5.63	3.76	—
2025	25	AAA RAW	Albuquerque Isotopes	34	0	38	193	41	26	2	0%	1.1	21.2%	13.5%	7.8%	1.0%	5.63	3.67	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	1.3	25.0%	25.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.85	+0.0
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	47	0	51	244	58	40	4	0%	1.1	19.7%	14.6%	5.1%	1.8%	4.56	4.29	—
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	47	0	51	244	58	40	4	0%	1.1	19.7%	14.6%	5.1%	1.8%	4.56	4.29	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AAA RAW	CHC	46	0	50	240	57	39	4	0%	1.1	23.8%	16.2%	7.5%	1.7%	4.68	4.07	—
2026	26	MLB RAW	CHC	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	1.3	25.0%	25.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	4.16	—
SO FAR	26	MLB RAW	CHC	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	1.3	25.0%	25.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	4.16	—
ROS	26	MLB MLE	CHC	2	0	2	8	1	1	0	0%	0.9	19.3%	13.3%	6.0%	2.5%	4.88	4.88	-0.0
ROS	26	MLB CTX	CHC	2	0	2	8	2	1	0	0%	1.0	19.3%	13.3%	6.0%	2.5%	4.88	4.88	-0.0
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	CHC	—	—	53	252	59	41	4	—	—	23.6%	16.3%	7.3%	1.7%	4.57	4.31	+0.1
FULL	26	MLB A+C	CHC	—	—	3	13	59	41	4	—	—	451.2%	311.2%	140.0%	31.8%	77.77	21.84	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	CHC	47	0	50	209	41	27	5	0%	1.1	19.7%	13.0%	6.7%	2.6%	4.85	4.86	-0.2
2028	28	MLB MLE	CHC	46	0	48	203	40	26	5	0%	1.0	19.9%	12.8%	7.0%	2.7%	4.87	4.90	-0.2
2027	27	MLB CTX	CHC	45	0	47	198	39	26	5	0%	1.0	19.7%	13.0%	6.7%	2.6%	4.85	4.86	-0.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	CHC	44	0	46	194	39	25	5	0%	1.0	19.9%	12.8%	7.0%	2.7%	4.87	4.90	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		91	0	96	403	80	52	10	0%	1.1	19.8%	13.0%	6.8%	2.6%	4.79	4.50	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	841	167	109	21	0%	1.1	19.8%	13.0%	6.8%	2.6%	4.79	4.50	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		203	42	334	1515	338	226	24	21%	1.6	22.3%	14.9%	7.4%	1.6%	4.72	3.97	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		122	25	200	908	202	135	14	21%	1.6	22.3%	14.9%	7.4%	1.6%	4.72	3.97	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Antoine Kelly (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.88	19.3%	13.3%	2.5%	—	4.88	19.8%	6.9%	98	-0.00	—	—	—
Brian Moran L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	26	SU	4.50	17.7%	14.1%	2.0%	.318	2.74	25.0%	17.4%	80	-1.76	1.80	421	86
Matt Purke L 2016 · 4.25 FIP	26	SU	4.25	19.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.284	3.54	21.4%	8.8%	112	-0.71	3.01	226	84
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	84
Haylen Green L 2023 · 4.09 FIP	25	SU	4.09	18.6%	10.8%	2.2%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	81
Graeme Stinson L 2023 · 4.85 FIP	25	SU	4.85	19.5%	15.6%	2.6%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	146	81
Jackson Lancaster L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	18.9%	17.6%	2.6%	.315	5.15	19.7%	6.8%	122	+0.01	4.15	142	80
Seth Clark L 2023 · 4.23 FIP	23	SU	4.23	22.5%	15.0%	2.1%	.287	5.23	18.4%	0.6%	82	+1.00	4.23	128	79
Andy Fisher L 2022 · 4.20 FIP	26	SU	4.20	21.5%	15.4%	1.8%	.333	4.25	17.2%	6.3%	52	+0.05	3.13	167	79
Sean Keselica L 2019 · 4.47 FIP	26	SU	4.47	18.0%	14.5%	1.9%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	2.79	235	79
Tom Windle L 2018 · 4.56 FIP	26	SU	4.56	19.0%	11.8%	2.9%	.269	4.37	17.2%	1.8%	74	-0.19	3.68	330	79
Brad Kuntz L 2018 · 4.10 FIP	26	SU	4.10	20.9%	11.7%	2.4%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	2.35	197	79
Juan Grullon L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	26	SU	4.64	19.8%	10.9%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	134	78
Trey Jeans L 2022 · 5.09 FIP	26	SU	5.09	22.3%	16.5%	3.3%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	2.74	111	78
Brendan Nail L 2022 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	22.6%	12.5%	2.7%	.311	4.39	18.9%	8.4%	53	+0.12	3.45	165	78
Adam McCreery L 2019 · 4.29 FIP	26	SU	4.29	20.7%	14.5%	2.0%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	207	78
Braulio Lara L 2015 · 3.96 FIP	26	SU	3.96	16.7%	8.7%	2.1%	.367	5.20	18.9%	3.9%	67	+1.24	3.96	118	78
Justin Wright L 2016 · 4.42 FIP	26	SU	4.42	14.7%	13.7%	1.5%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	2.28	109	78
Rob Zastryzny L 2018 · 4.31 FIP	26	SU	4.31	18.4%	11.0%	2.5%	.264	4.81	19.8%	10.8%	142	+0.50	3.34	634	78
Jeff Ibarra L 2016 · 3.75 FIP	28	SU	3.75	17.8%	9.7%	1.7%	.321	3.29	19.2%	13.8%	66	-0.46	2.85	101	78
Phil Pfeifer L 2018 · 4.15 FIP	26	SU	4.15	17.4%	15.7%	1.0%	.279	4.06	21.4%	11.5%	161	-0.09	3.61	307	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.6	39	19.7%	13.0%	1.00	4.86
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64