Shane Smith

P Charlotte Knights

Age 27 RHP 6'3" / 240 lbs AAA Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.7 · 2028 ILForty Man (40M)

Overview

AAASP40M40-MANPre-ArbFA 2032

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX2 levels	32	16	94	3.05	2.45	29.6%	7.6%	—	K 24.3% · BB 8.1% · FIP 3.01
2025	25	MLBCWS	29	29	146	3.81	3.80	23.5%	9.3%	1.9
2026	26	MIX3 levels	26	17	66	6.24	3.90	23.3%	15.7%	0.8	K 19.0% · BB 14.0% · FIP 4.01
2027PROJ	27	MLBCWS	19	19	114	4.16	4.28	23.6%	10.9%	0.8
2028PROJ64% MLB	28	MLBCWS	14	14	87	4.31	4.39	23.5%	11.0%	0.6
2029PROJ74% MLB	29	MLBCWS	16	16	96	4.46	4.55	22.9%	11.2%	0.4

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.7 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2031Service1.000First FA2032

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Arb-1$4M2030Arb-2$5M2031Arb-3$5M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff55Control45Command50FB velo55

CompsSam Lewis (age 27) · John Ely (age 25) · Tyler Yates (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115106vR 98

ERA4.16

FIP4.28

K%23.6%

BB%10.9%

K-BB%12.7%

Proj IP114

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 114 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$2M ctrl surplus

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL4545

CMD5050

K†5555

SI (14%)

CU (24%)

FB-1.9 (47%)

CH-2.3 (18%)

SL-3.1 (11%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 1.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$2M
2029	Arb-1	$4M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-2	$5M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$5M	—	—	—
Totals		$2M		$5M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	22	ROK MLE	ACL Brewers Gold	3	3	3	17	4	3	0	100%	1.0	23.5%	17.6%	5.9%	0.0%	6.00	3.35	—
2022	22	ROK RAW	ACL Brewers Gold	3	3	3	17	4	3	0	100%	1.0	23.5%	17.6%	5.9%	0.0%	6.00	3.43	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	38	0	60	232	86	21	5	0%	1.6	28.1%	10.4%	17.7%	2.7%	1.96	3.52	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	38	0	60	232	86	21	5	0%	1.6	37.1%	9.1%	28.0%	2.2%	1.96	2.36	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	16	94	382	113	29	6	50%	2.9	24.3%	8.1%	16.2%	1.7%	3.05	3.01	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	16	94	382	113	29	6	50%	2.9	24.3%	8.1%	16.2%	1.7%	3.05	3.01	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	16	94	382	113	29	6	50%	2.9	29.6%	7.6%	22.0%	1.6%	3.05	2.45	—
2025	25	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	29	29	146	616	145	57	17	100%	5.0	23.5%	9.3%	14.3%	2.7%	3.81	3.77	+2.0
2025	25	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	29	29	146	616	145	57	17	100%	5.0	23.5%	9.3%	14.3%	2.7%	3.81	3.77	+2.0
2025	25	MLB RAW	Chicago White Sox	29	29	146	616	145	57	17	100%	5.0	23.5%	9.3%	14.3%	2.8%	3.81	3.80	+1.9
2026	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	17	66	313	73	49	4	65%	2.6	19.0%	14.0%	5.0%	1.4%	6.24	4.01	+0.7
2026	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	17	66	313	73	49	4	65%	2.6	19.0%	14.0%	5.0%	1.4%	6.24	4.01	+0.7
2026	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	17	66	313	73	49	4	65%	2.6	23.3%	15.7%	7.7%	1.3%	6.24	3.90	+0.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			32	32	155	665	156	66	18	100%	4.8	23.5%	9.9%	13.5%	2.7%	4.19	3.88	+1.9
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	CWS	19	19	114	481	114	52	12	100%	6.0	23.6%	10.9%	12.7%	2.6%	4.16	4.28	+0.8
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	CWS	23	23	136	575	135	63	15	100%	5.9	23.5%	11.0%	12.4%	2.7%	4.28	4.36	+0.9
2029	29	MLB MLE	CWS	22	22	130	549	126	62	15	100%	5.9	22.9%	11.2%	11.6%	2.8%	4.43	4.52	+0.6
2030	30	MLB MLE	CWS	20	20	122	516	114	60	16	100%	6.1	22.2%	11.6%	10.6%	3.0%	4.61	4.73	+0.2
2031	31	MLB MLE	CWS	19	19	114	481	103	57	16	100%	6.0	21.4%	11.9%	9.5%	3.2%	4.82	4.96	-0.1
2032	32	MLB MLE	CWS	18	18	106	445	92	55	16	100%	5.9	20.6%	12.3%	8.3%	3.5%	5.06	5.22	-0.4
2028	28	MLB CTX	CWS	14	14	87	367	86	40	10	100%	6.2	23.5%	11.0%	12.4%	2.7%	4.31	4.39	+0.6
2029	29	MLB CTX	CWS	16	16	96	405	93	46	12	100%	6.0	22.9%	11.2%	11.6%	2.9%	4.46	4.55	+0.4
2030	30	MLB CTX	CWS	16	16	98	414	92	48	13	100%	6.1	22.2%	11.6%	10.6%	3.1%	4.64	4.76	+0.2
2031	31	MLB CTX	CWS	16	16	97	410	88	49	14	100%	6.1	21.4%	11.9%	9.5%	3.3%	4.85	4.99	-0.1
2032	32	MLB CTX	CWS	16	16	93	393	81	48	14	100%	5.8	20.6%	12.3%	8.3%	3.6%	5.09	5.25	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		111	111	626	2657	596	297	80	100%	5.6	22.4%	11.2%	11.2%	3.0%	4.55	4.27	+4.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	848	190	95	26	100%	5.7	22.4%	11.2%	11.2%	3.0%	4.55	4.27	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		128	65	370	1560	366	159	34	51%	2.9	23.5%	10.2%	13.3%	2.2%	3.77	3.59	+3.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		69	35	200	844	198	86	18	51%	2.9	23.5%	10.2%	13.3%	2.2%	3.77	3.59	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Shane Smith (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.28	23.6%	10.9%	2.6%	—	4.53	22.9%	11.6%	388	+0.25	—	—	—
Sam Lewis R 2019 · 3.41 FIP	27	SP-	3.41	21.0%	10.8%	1.3%	.246	—	—	—	—	—	2.21	224	70
John Ely R 2011 · 4.38 FIP	25	SW	4.38	23.2%	10.7%	3.4%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	113	62
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	62
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	62
Zach Stewart R 2015 · 4.43 FIP	28	SP-	4.43	14.4%	8.3%	2.7%	.322	5.17	11.7%	2.1%	51	+0.74	4.27	194	62
Shawn Dubin R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	27	SP-	4.87	20.0%	12.9%	3.3%	.292	3.97	21.8%	11.4%	79	-0.90	3.02	341	62
Kyle Lloyd R 2018 · 4.23 FIP	27	SP-	4.23	18.2%	9.8%	2.6%	.336	4.75	17.2%	9.3%	110	+0.52	3.50	572	61
Chase Whitley R 2016 · 4.10 FIP	27	SP-	4.10	19.5%	7.0%	3.2%	.217	3.22	18.0%	11.8%	81	-0.88	3.09	235	61
Tylor Megill R 2022 · 3.70 FIP	27	SP-	3.70	25.5%	6.5%	3.5%	.302	3.88	22.8%	12.8%	359	+0.18	3.02	603	61
Erik Hiljus R 2001 · 3.35 FIP	28	SP-	3.35	23.1%	6.9%	2.4%	.321	6.07	14.1%	4.4%	46	+2.72	3.35	112	60
Carlos Torres R 2010 · 4.50 FIP	27	SW	4.50	18.3%	11.3%	2.8%	.438	3.89	20.1%	13.2%	139	-0.61	2.89	604	60
Junior Guerra R 2015 · 3.18 FIP	30	SW	3.18	26.8%	10.3%	1.9%	.269	4.15	20.8%	10.9%	390	+0.97	3.18	646	60
Andres Santiago R 2017 · 4.16 FIP	27	SW	4.16	16.3%	9.1%	2.3%	.384	5.26	13.1%	3.2%	159	+1.10	3.76	291	60
Kyle Wright R 2023 · 4.41 FIP	27	SP-	4.41	21.9%	11.0%	3.2%	.354	5.09	19.7%	6.4%	13	+0.68	3.32	669	59
TJ Shook R 2024 · 4.15 FIP	26	SW	4.15	23.7%	8.7%	3.5%	.317	3.92	20.0%	11.1%	107	-0.23	3.35	452	59
Edwin Quirarte R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	28	SW	3.41	16.7%	6.2%	1.7%	.311	3.48	12.7%	4.9%	83	+0.06	3.16	157	59
Jake Lee R 2022 · 3.27 FIP	27	SP-	3.27	16.8%	7.1%	1.3%	.338	5.88	15.9%	9.6%	93	+2.61	2.78	181	59
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	59
Danny Kirwin R 2024 · 4.19 FIP	24	SW	4.19	17.9%	9.9%	2.4%	.262	5.33	16.8%	4.6%	91	+1.14	4.16	161	59
Cody Sedlock R 2022 · 4.21 FIP	27	SW	4.21	20.1%	13.0%	2.1%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	378	59

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.4	125	22.6%	11.2%	1.13	4.48
Ken Kravec ('75-'82, 5 WAR*)	4.3	123	23.6%*	10.7%*	1.11*	4.73*
Daisuke Matsuzaka ('14)	4.0	99	20.9%	11.2%	0.97	4.45
John Maine ('13)	3.0	99	19.5%	10.5%	1.23	4.45
Roy Parmelee ('29-'39, 4 WAR*)	5.6	124	24.0%*	12.7%*	1.20*	4.75*
Tom Phoebus ('66-'72, 10 WAR*)	5.2	147	21.2%*	11.0%*	1.06*	4.25*
Edinson Volquez ('20)	7.7	129	19.5%	10.8%	0.93	4.45