Christian Scott

P New York Mets

Age 28 RHP 6'4" / 215 lbs MLB Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 1.6 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MANArb-1FA 2030

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	24	MIX3 levels	19	19	88	2.57	1.81	31.9%	3.6%	—	K 25.6% · BB 4.1% · FIP 2.56
2024	25	MIX2 levels	18	18	90	3.71	4.42	26.0%	6.6%	0.5	K 23.9% · BB 6.3% · FIP 4.68
2026	27	MIX2 levels	26	26	124	4.00	3.42	28.4%	9.2%	2.2	K 27.9% · BB 9.2% · FIP 3.48
2027PROJ	28	MLBNYM	17	17	100	4.00	4.08	25.8%	8.8%	1.0
2028PROJ95% MLB	29	MLBNYM	15	15	91	4.15	4.24	25.2%	9.0%	0.7
2029PROJ95% MLB	30	MLBNYM	14	14	85	4.33	4.45	24.5%	9.3%	0.4

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.7 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2029Service3.000First FA2030

2027Arb-1$3M2028Arb-2$4M2029Arb-3$5M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

K%83

xwOBA vs65

FB Velo64

Whiff%61

CompsErik Hiljus (age 28) · Yariel Rodríguez (age 27) · Fabio Castillo (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10597vR 89

ERA4.00

FIP4.08

K%25.8%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%17.0%

Proj IP100

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 100 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$4M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL6060

CMD5050

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6495.5

Whiff%

p6127.0%

p8328.3%

xwOBA vs

p650.297

FB+1.4 (53%)

SL-1.2 (37%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2024

Service 3.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-1	$3M	+1.0	$8M	+$5M
2028	Arb-2	$4M	+0.7	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Arb-3	$5M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$12M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	ROK MLE	FCL Mets	3	0	3	11	1	1	0	0%	1.0	9.1%	9.1%	0.0%	0.0%	3.00	3.48	—
2021	22	ROK RAW	FCL Mets	3	0	3	11	1	1	0	0%	1.0	9.1%	9.1%	0.0%	0.0%	3.00	3.43	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	9	59	261	77	22	2	50%	3.3	22.1%	9.8%	12.3%	1.0%	4.45	3.05	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	9	59	261	77	22	2	50%	3.3	29.5%	8.4%	21.1%	0.8%	4.45	2.04	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	19	88	335	107	12	5	100%	4.6	25.6%	4.1%	21.5%	2.0%	2.57	2.56	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	19	88	335	107	12	5	100%	4.6	31.9%	3.6%	28.4%	1.5%	2.57	1.81	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	18	90	361	94	24	18	100%	5.0	23.9%	6.3%	17.6%	5.1%	3.71	4.68	+0.2
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	18	90	361	94	24	18	100%	5.0	23.9%	6.3%	17.6%	5.1%	3.71	4.68	+0.2
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	18	90	361	94	24	18	100%	5.0	26.0%	6.6%	19.4%	5.0%	3.71	4.42	+0.5
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	124	532	151	49	15	100%	4.8	27.9%	9.2%	18.8%	2.9%	4.00	3.48	+2.1
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	124	532	151	49	15	100%	4.8	27.9%	9.2%	18.8%	2.9%	4.00	3.48	+2.1
2026	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	124	532	151	49	15	100%	4.8	28.4%	9.2%	19.2%	2.8%	4.00	3.42	+2.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			32	32	157	671	173	59	20	100%	4.9	25.8%	8.8%	17.0%	3.0%	4.06	3.68	+2.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	NYM	17	17	100	422	109	37	13	100%	5.9	25.8%	8.8%	17.0%	3.0%	4.00	4.08	+1.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	NYM	16	16	96	403	102	36	13	100%	6.0	25.2%	9.0%	16.2%	3.2%	4.15	4.24	+0.7
2029	30	MLB MLE	NYM	15	15	90	379	93	35	13	100%	6.0	24.5%	9.3%	15.2%	3.4%	4.33	4.45	+0.5
2030	31	MLB MLE	NYM	14	14	84	353	84	34	13	100%	6.0	23.8%	9.7%	14.1%	3.6%	4.54	4.68	+0.2
2031	32	MLB MLE	NYM	13	13	77	327	82	30	13	100%	6.0	25.0%	9.3%	15.7%	3.9%	4.62	4.67	+0.2
2032	33	MLB MLE	NYM	12	12	71	300	72	29	12	100%	5.9	24.1%	9.7%	14.4%	4.1%	4.82	4.95	-0.0
2028	29	MLB CTX	NYM	15	15	91	384	97	35	12	100%	6.1	25.2%	9.0%	16.2%	3.2%	4.15	4.24	+0.7
2029	30	MLB CTX	NYM	14	14	85	359	88	33	12	100%	6.1	24.5%	9.3%	15.2%	3.4%	4.33	4.45	+0.4
2030	31	MLB CTX	NYM	13	13	80	338	80	33	12	100%	6.2	23.8%	9.7%	14.1%	3.6%	4.54	4.68	+0.2
2031	32	MLB CTX	NYM	12	12	74	312	78	29	12	100%	6.2	25.0%	9.3%	15.7%	3.9%	4.61	4.66	+0.2
2032	33	MLB CTX	NYM	11	11	67	283	68	27	12	100%	6.1	24.1%	9.7%	14.4%	4.1%	4.81	4.94	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		98	98	554	2345	584	216	80	100%	5.7	24.9%	9.2%	15.7%	3.4%	4.35	4.04	+5.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	847	211	78	29	100%	5.6	24.9%	9.2%	15.7%	3.4%	4.35	4.04	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		84	72	363	1500	379	112	43	86%	4.3	25.3%	7.5%	17.8%	2.9%	3.65	3.49	+3.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	40	200	827	209	62	24	86%	4.3	25.3%	7.5%	17.8%	2.9%	3.65	3.49	+1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Christian Scott (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.08	25.8%	8.8%	3.0%	—	4.45	24.5%	15.2%	269	+0.37	—	—	—
Erik Hiljus R 2001 · 3.35 FIP	28	SP-	3.35	23.1%	6.9%	2.4%	.321	6.07	14.1%	4.4%	46	+2.72	3.35	112	72
Yariel Rodríguez R 2024 · 3.76 FIP	27	SP	3.76	24.9%	11.4%	2.4%	.275	3.72	24.1%	12.7%	89	-0.04	2.32	196	71
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	71
Brian Edgington R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.28	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.29	3.99	171	69
Omar Bencomo R 2017 · 4.50 FIP	28	SP-	4.50	18.9%	6.3%	4.0%	.333	4.48	14.9%	10.1%	186	-0.02	3.70	381	69
Matt Shoemaker R 2015 · 4.38 FIP	28	SP	4.38	20.4%	5.8%	4.1%	.280	3.74	21.8%	15.9%	269	-0.64	3.12	728	68
Brad Peacock R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	28	SP-	3.97	20.9%	8.7%	2.8%	.302	3.45	29.4%	20.4%	289	-0.52	2.97	748	68
Nate Karns R 2016 · 3.88 FIP	28	SP-	3.88	24.2%	10.6%	2.7%	.322	4.46	27.1%	20.7%	45	+0.58	3.88	299	67
Todd Redmond R 2013 · 4.14 FIP	28	SP-	4.14	23.5%	6.5%	4.0%	.266	3.57	17.0%	10.1%	170	-0.57	3.21	247	67
Chase Anderson R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	28	SP	4.83	18.5%	8.2%	4.1%	.285	4.25	21.3%	13.3%	438	-0.58	3.30	1,260	67
Félix Peña R 2018 · 3.74 FIP	28	SP	3.74	22.3%	8.4%	2.6%	.294	4.58	21.9%	13.5%	191	+0.84	2.79	615	67
Austin Bergner R 2024 · 4.84 FIP	27	SP	4.84	22.2%	12.5%	3.7%	.325	4.42	18.7%	7.3%	107	-0.42	4.06	464	66
Osvaldo Bido R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	28	SP-	3.86	23.8%	8.5%	3.1%	.268	5.48	18.0%	8.0%	116	+1.62	3.67	732	66
Taylor Jungmann R 2017 · 3.88 FIP	27	SP-	3.88	18.8%	11.1%	1.8%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	435	66
Braydon Tucker R 2024 · 3.25 FIP	25	SP-	3.25	18.3%	7.1%	1.5%	.291	4.70	15.3%	6.3%	208	+1.45	3.25	314	65
Patrick Johnson R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	17.3%	6.9%	2.4%	.286	4.14	15.7%	6.4%	120	+0.32	3.82	248	65
Joe Ross R 2021 · 3.95 FIP	28	SP	3.95	23.7%	6.5%	3.7%	.266	3.90	19.6%	10.7%	86	-0.05	3.19	812	65
Raynel Espinal R 2019 · 3.90 FIP	27	SP-	3.90	22.4%	7.1%	3.2%	.313	4.01	22.3%	12.4%	224	+0.11	2.48	507	65
Hector Velázquez R 2017 · 3.65 FIP	28	SP-	3.65	18.0%	6.6%	2.2%	.251	4.28	16.7%	7.4%	158	+0.63	2.75	536	65
Ariel Peña R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	28	SP	3.99	22.5%	12.0%	2.3%	.304	6.07	19.9%	-5.7%	21	+2.08	3.74	223	64

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.4	84	25.0%	9.2%	1.31	4.30
Chuck Cary ('85-'93, 3 WAR*)	2.1	68	24.6%*	8.7%*	1.45*	4.41*
Tom Acker ('56-'59, 3 WAR*)	1.9	95	23.8%*	9.3%*	1.17*	4.30*
John Henry Johnson ('78-'87, 6 WAR*)	3.0	75	24.6%*	9.6%*	1.15*	4.15*
Félix Peña ('21)	1.3	65	23.9%	8.5%	1.35	4.66
Daniel Norris ('23)	2.9	73	21.5%	8.9%	1.39	4.73
Scott Sanders ('99)	3.4	97	21.2%	9.3%	1.23	4.86