Jonah Scolaro prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Jonah Scolaro P Winston-Salem Dash

Age 27 LHP 5'10" / 193 lbs A+

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 48 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 104112vR 121

ERA4.60

FIP4.60

K%23.2%

BB%11.2%

K-BB%12.0%

ROS IP48

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 48 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	5	25	108	37	11	2	62%	3.1	25.7%	12.0%	13.6%	2.3%	3.24	3.70	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	8	5	25	108	37	11	2	62%	3.1	34.3%	10.2%	24.1%	1.9%	3.24	2.50	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	1	69	305	89	36	10	3%	1.8	23.3%	13.0%	10.3%	4.0%	4.80	4.95	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	1	69	305	89	36	10	3%	1.8	23.3%	13.0%	10.3%	4.0%	4.80	4.95	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	1	69	305	89	36	10	3%	1.8	29.2%	11.8%	17.4%	3.3%	4.80	3.97	—
2024	25	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	4	0	5	35	11	8	2	0%	1.2	31.4%	22.9%	8.6%	5.7%	23.40	6.48	—
2024	25	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	4	0	5	35	11	8	2	0%	1.2	31.4%	22.9%	8.6%	5.7%	23.40	6.48	—
2024	25	A+ RAW	Winston-Salem Dash	4	0	5	35	11	8	2	0%	1.2	31.4%	22.9%	8.6%	5.7%	23.40	8.70	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	27	MLB	CWS	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	23.2%	11.2%	12.0%	3.0%	4.60	4.60	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	CWS	45	0	47	198	46	22	6	0%	1.0	23.1%	11.1%	12.0%	3.1%	4.62	4.65	-0.1
2028	29	MLB MLE	CWS	43	0	45	190	43	21	6	0%	1.0	22.9%	11.2%	11.7%	3.3%	4.70	4.76	-0.1
2027	28	MLB CTX	CWS	16	0	17	72	17	8	2	0%	1.1	23.1%	11.1%	12.0%	3.1%	4.62	4.65	-0.0
2028	29	MLB CTX	CWS	24	0	25	106	24	12	3	0%	1.0	22.9%	11.2%	11.7%	3.3%	4.70	4.76	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		40	0	42	177	41	20	6	0%	1.0	23.0%	11.2%	11.8%	3.2%	4.67	4.34	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	196	95	29	0%	1.1	23.0%	11.2%	11.8%	3.2%	4.67	4.34	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		51	6	99	448	110	61	17	12%	1.9	24.5%	13.6%	11.0%	3.7%	5.35	4.77	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		103	12	200	902	221	122	33	12%	1.9	24.5%	13.6%	11.0%	3.7%	5.35	4.77	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jonah Scolaro (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.60	23.2%	11.2%	3.0%	—	4.70	23.0%	11.8%	92	+0.10	—	—	—
Juan Grullon L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	26	SU	4.64	19.8%	10.9%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	134	83
Garrett Irvin L 2023 · 4.42 FIP	24	SU	4.42	23.2%	11.6%	3.3%	.283	4.32	17.7%	2.9%	39	-0.10	4.32	110	82
Ryan Verdugo L 2015 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	19.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.281	3.36	22.7%	17.3%	82	-0.25	3.36	153	82
Aaron Brown L 2019 · 4.04 FIP	27	SU	4.04	22.9%	13.5%	2.1%	.317	4.77	19.4%	6.7%	129	+0.73	4.04	269	81
Will Gilbert L 2019 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	19.9%	10.3%	3.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	141	78
James Reeves L 2019 · 3.74 FIP	26	SU	3.74	22.4%	10.3%	2.2%	.226	5.11	27.0%	10.8%	51	+1.37	2.02	280	78
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	78
Brad Kuntz L 2018 · 4.10 FIP	26	SU	4.10	20.9%	11.7%	2.4%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	2.35	197	78
Greg Nappo L 2016 · 5.09 FIP	27	SU	5.09	17.2%	10.3%	3.9%	.285	6.26	12.3%	-0.3%	11	+1.17	3.37	144	77
Brendan Nail L 2023 · 4.36 FIP	27	SU	4.36	19.3%	10.5%	2.8%	.262	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	165	77
Ashur Tolliver L 2015 · 3.49 FIP	27	SU	3.49	19.8%	12.8%	0.8%	.312	4.58	17.8%	3.7%	76	+1.09	3.49	134	76
Conor Lillis-White L 2018 · 3.48 FIP	26	SU	3.48	26.8%	11.1%	2.3%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	1.80	182	76
Haylen Green L 2023 · 4.09 FIP	25	SU	4.09	18.6%	10.8%	2.2%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	76
Bailey Horn L 2023 · 3.91 FIP	25	SU	3.91	21.4%	10.3%	2.4%	.322	4.56	22.4%	11.6%	110	+0.65	3.90	265	75
Triston Polley L 2023 · 4.15 FIP	26	SU	4.15	17.8%	8.9%	2.6%	.331	4.53	17.4%	-0.3%	22	+0.38	4.15	151	75
David Rollins L 2017 · 5.58 FIP	27	SU	5.58	18.0%	12.1%	4.5%	.260	5.68	15.9%	12.5%	20	+0.10	3.59	132	75
Chris Narveson L 2009 · 4.01 FIP	27	SW	4.01	22.4%	7.3%	3.4%	.277	4.00	18.5%	10.0%	329	-0.01	4.00	625	75
Bryan Harper L 2016 · 4.13 FIP	26	SU	4.13	19.3%	9.6%	2.6%	.197	4.63	14.9%	1.0%	46	+0.50	4.13	133	75
Mike Gosling L 2007 · 4.67 FIP	26	SU	4.67	19.5%	12.2%	3.0%	.346	5.66	11.4%	2.6%	25	+0.99	4.44	116	75
Adam Liberatore L 2015 · 3.64 FIP	28	SU	3.64	21.1%	7.3%	2.5%	.267	3.17	23.3%	15.2%	73	-0.47	2.38	124	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	47	23.1%	11.2%	1.21	4.64
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16
Bill Risley ('98)	1.1	55	21.9%	10.9%	1.26	3.98
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
J.J. Hoover ('18)	1.4	57	23.8%	11.4%	1.42	4.17
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71