Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 8 | 5 | 25 | 108 | 37 | 11 | 2 | 62% | 3.1 | 25.7% | 12.0% | 13.6% | 2.0% | 3.24 | 3.54 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 8 | 5 | 25 | 108 | 37 | 11 | 2 | 62% | 3.1 | 34.3% | 10.2% | 24.1% | 1.9% | 3.24 | 2.50 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 1 | 69 | 305 | 89 | 36 | 10 | 3% | 1.8 | 23.3% | 13.0% | 10.3% | 3.9% | 4.80 | 4.92 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 1 | 69 | 305 | 89 | 36 | 10 | 3% | 1.8 | 29.2% | 11.8% | 17.4% | 3.3% | 4.80 | 3.97 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | 4 | 0 | 5 | 35 | 11 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 31.4% | 22.9% | 8.6% | 5.7% | 23.40 | 6.48 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | 4 | 0 | 5 | 35 | 11 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 31.4% | 22.9% | 8.6% | 5.7% | 23.40 | 8.70 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | CWS | 46 | 0 | 48 | 205 | 48 | 20 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.4% | 9.8% | 13.6% | 3.0% | 4.41 | 4.41 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | CWS | 45 | 0 | 47 | 198 | 46 | 20 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 13.4% | 3.1% | 4.45 | 4.48 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | CWS | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 44 | 19 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.0% | 10.0% | 13.0% | 3.3% | 4.54 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | CWS | 16 | 0 | 17 | 72 | 17 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 13.4% | 3.1% | 4.45 | 4.48 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | CWS | 24 | 0 | 25 | 106 | 24 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.0% | 10.0% | 13.0% | 3.3% | 4.54 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 40 | 0 | 42 | 177 | 41 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.1% | 10.0% | 13.1% | 3.2% | 4.50 | 4.17 | +0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 196 | 86 | 29 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.1% | 10.0% | 13.1% | 3.2% | 4.50 | 4.17 | +2.9 | ||
| Career | — | 51 | 6 | 99 | 448 | 110 | 61 | 16 | 12% | 1.9 | 24.5% | 13.6% | 11.0% | 3.6% | 5.35 | 4.71 | +0.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 103 | 12 | 200 | 902 | 221 | 122 | 32 | 12% | 1.9 | 24.5% | 13.6% | 11.0% | 3.6% | 5.35 | 4.71 | +1.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jonah Scolaro (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.41 | 23.4% | 9.8% | 3.0% | — | 4.54 | 23.1% | 13.2% | 92 | +0.13 | — | — | — |
| Juan Grullon L 2025 · 4.86 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.86 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 3.7% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.86 | 134 | 81 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2027 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 3.41 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 82 | -0.21 | 3.41 | 153 | 81 |
| Dylan Phillips L 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.01 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 2.9% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.69 | 221 | 81 |
| James Reeves L 2025 · 3.79 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.79 | 22.4% | 10.3% | 2.3% | .226 | 5.24 | 27.0% | 10.8% | 51 | +1.45 | 2.02 | 280 | 78 |
| Fabian Williamson L 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.46 | 23.8% | 9.0% | 2.2% | .259 | 5.31 | 16.5% | -3.3% | 54 | +1.85 | 3.46 | 154 | 78 |
| Will Gilbert L 2024 · 4.26 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.26 | 19.9% | 10.3% | 2.8% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.85 | 141 | 78 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2027 · 3.84 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.84 | 21.1% | 7.3% | 2.9% | .267 | 3.21 | 23.3% | 15.2% | 73 | -0.63 | 2.44 | 124 | 77 |
| Bailey Horn L 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.24 | 23.8% | 11.7% | 3.0% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.13 | 265 | 77 |
| Aaron Brown L 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.88 | 22.9% | 13.5% | 1.8% | .317 | 4.79 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 129 | +0.91 | 3.88 | 269 | 77 |
| Jordan Mills L 2026 · 3.26 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.26 | 23.2% | 9.3% | 1.7% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.64 | 210 | 76 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.30 | 22.8% | 12.2% | 1.1% | .292 | 3.80 | 20.2% | 11.3% | 127 | +0.50 | 2.68 | 175 | 76 |
| Conor Lillis-White L 2025 · 3.54 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.54 | 26.8% | 11.1% | 2.4% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.80 | 182 | 76 |
| A.J. Block L 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.64 | 22.7% | 12.4% | 1.6% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.64 | 203 | 76 |
| Kevin Chapman L 2026 · 3.32 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.32 | 21.9% | 11.1% | 1.2% | .368 | 3.66 | 21.7% | 11.5% | 100 | +0.34 | 3.04 | 153 | 76 |
| Jake Diekman L 2027 · 3.40 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.40 | 26.5% | 11.9% | 1.9% | .310 | 3.21 | 27.0% | 15.3% | 106 | -0.19 | 2.33 | 455 | 76 |
| Jeremy Horst L 2028 · 4.06 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.06 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.1% | .291 | 3.73 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.33 | 3.73 | 108 | 76 |
| Brad Kuntz L 2025 · 4.02 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.02 | 20.9% | 11.7% | 2.2% | .352 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.35 | 197 | 76 |
| Garrett Schoenle L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.26 | 17.9% | 8.5% | 2.9% | .281 | 3.91 | 20.1% | 10.8% | 34 | -0.35 | 2.34 | 338 | 75 |
| Chris Nunn L 2026 · 3.26 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.26 | 23.0% | 10.9% | 1.3% | .367 | 4.30 | 23.9% | 9.2% | 95 | +1.04 | 3.26 | 180 | 75 |
| Brendan Nail L 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.43 | 19.5% | 11.4% | 2.8% | .262 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.67 | 165 | 75 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 47 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 1.21 | 4.46 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |