Dylan Phillips

P Tri-City Dust Devils

Age 28 LHP 6'0" / 230 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	A+LAA	41	0	54	3.31	2.14	27.6%	9.1%	—	K 21.2% · BB 10.4% · FIP 2.95
2025	26	MIX3 levels	46	2	73	3.58	3.63	22.4%	8.0%	—	K 16.9% · BB 10.3% · FIP 4.27
2026	27	MIX3 levels	44	0	72	4.02	2.86	29.4%	9.4%	—	K 23.3% · BB 10.0% · FIP 3.67
2027PROJ	28	MLBLAA	—	—	0	4.46	4.46	21.3%	10.0%	—
2028PROJ30% MLB	29	MLBLAA	10	0	11	4.56	4.61	21.3%	10.2%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 0.3, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsRyan Verdugo (age 28) · Colton Johnson (age 26) · Kelly Wunsch (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 102110vR 118

ERA4.46

FIP4.46

K%21.3%

BB%10.0%

K-BB%11.3%

Proj IP46

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 46 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	0	8	36	8	1	0	0%	1.4	22.2%	2.8%	19.4%	0.0%	6.48	1.58	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	0	8	36	8	1	0	0%	1.4	22.2%	2.8%	19.4%	0.0%	6.48	1.54	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	42	0	61	268	82	25	1	0%	1.5	23.9%	9.8%	14.2%	0.6%	4.72	2.65	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	42	0	61	268	82	25	1	0%	1.5	30.6%	9.3%	21.3%	0.4%	4.72	1.85	—
2024	25	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	41	0	54	232	64	21	1	0%	1.3	21.2%	10.4%	10.8%	0.6%	3.31	2.95	—
2024	25	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	41	0	54	232	64	21	1	0%	1.3	21.2%	10.4%	10.8%	0.6%	3.31	2.95	—
2024	25	A+ RAW	Tri-City Dust Devils	41	0	54	232	64	21	1	0%	1.3	27.6%	9.1%	18.5%	0.4%	3.31	2.14	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	46	2	73	312	70	25	8	4%	1.6	16.9%	10.3%	6.6%	2.4%	3.58	4.27	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	46	2	73	312	70	25	8	4%	1.6	16.9%	10.3%	6.6%	2.4%	3.58	4.27	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	46	2	73	312	70	25	8	4%	1.6	22.4%	8.0%	14.4%	2.6%	3.58	3.63	—
2026	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	44	0	72	309	91	29	6	0%	1.6	23.3%	10.0%	13.3%	2.3%	4.02	3.67	—
2026	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	44	0	72	309	91	29	6	0%	1.6	23.3%	10.0%	13.3%	2.3%	4.02	3.67	—
2026	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	44	0	72	309	91	29	6	0%	1.6	29.4%	9.4%	20.1%	1.9%	4.02	2.86	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	LAA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.3%	10.0%	11.3%	2.8%	4.46	4.46	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	LAA	35	0	37	156	33	16	5	0%	1.1	21.3%	10.2%	11.1%	2.9%	4.53	4.58	-0.0
2028	29	MLB CTX	LAA	10	0	11	46	10	5	1	0%	1.1	21.3%	10.2%	11.1%	3.0%	4.56	4.61	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		11	0	11	47	10	5	1	0%	1.0	21.3%	10.2%	11.1%	3.0%	4.56	4.23	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	179	90	18	0%	1.1	21.3%	10.2%	11.1%	3.0%	4.56	4.23	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		179	2	268	1157	246	114	17	1%	1.5	21.3%	9.9%	11.4%	1.5%	3.99	3.39	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		133	1	200	862	183	85	13	1%	1.5	21.3%	9.9%	11.4%	1.5%	3.99	3.39	-0.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Tri-City Dust Devils · 47 IPFIP 2.07 → 3.06 (+0.99)K% 32.8% → 25.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.80%	—	×0.770	25.26%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.88%	—	×1.150	7.91%
HR / BF /BF	1.59%	÷1.000	×1.250	1.98%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.07 → 3.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAASalt Lake Bees · 13 IPFIP 4.65 → 4.94 (+0.29)K% 23.3% → 20.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.33%	—	×0.860	20.07%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.33%	—	×0.900	12.00%
HR / BF /BF	3.33%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.67%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.65 → 4.94, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AARocket City Trash Pandas · 12 IPFIP 3.59 → 4.35 (+0.75)K% 25.0% → 20.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.810	20.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.33%	—	×1.100	14.67%
HR / BF /BF	1.67%	÷1.000	×1.200	2.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.59 → 4.35, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Tri-City Dust Devils · 43 IPFIP 4.09 → 5.05 (+0.96)K% 20.6% → 15.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.56%	—	×0.770	15.83%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.44%	—	×1.150	10.86%
HR / BF /BF	2.78%	÷1.000	×1.250	3.47%

Result: FIP 4.09 → 5.05, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AARocket City Trash Pandas · 19 IPFIP 2.16 → 2.64 (+0.48)K% 23.5% → 19.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.53%	—	×0.810	19.06%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.24%	—	×1.100	9.06%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.028	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.16 → 2.64, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAASalt Lake Bees · 11 IPFIP 4.54 → 5.23 (+0.69)K% 27.7% → 23.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.66%	—	×0.860	23.79%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.13%	—	×0.900	1.91%
HR / BF /BF	6.38%	÷0.989	×1.100	7.10%

Result: FIP 4.54 → 5.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Tri-City Dust Devils · 54 IPFIP 2.15 → 2.95 (+0.79)K% 27.6% → 21.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.59%	—	×0.770	21.24%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.05%	—	×1.150	10.41%
HR / BF /BF	0.43%	÷0.916	×1.250	0.59%

Result: FIP 2.15 → 2.95, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AInland Empire 66ers · 31 IPFIP 1.68 → 2.82 (+1.13)K% 34.4% → 25.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.35%	—	×0.740	25.42%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.40%	—	×1.180	9.91%
HR / BF /BF	0.76%	÷0.897	×1.300	1.11%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 79).

Result: FIP 1.68 → 2.82, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dylan Phillips (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.46	21.3%	10.0%	2.8%	—	4.58	21.3%	11.1%	37	+0.12	—	—	—
Ryan Verdugo L 2015 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	19.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.281	3.36	22.7%	17.3%	82	-0.25	3.36	153	88
Colton Johnson L 2024 · 3.92 FIP	26	SU	3.92	20.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.309	4.53	12.2%	-0.4%	48	+0.61	3.92	106	88
Kelly Wunsch L 2000 · 3.65 FIP	28	SU	3.65	19.7%	10.8%	1.5%	.261	4.17	17.6%	5.9%	90	+0.52	3.36	175	85
Juan Grullon L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	26	SU	4.64	19.8%	10.9%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	134	83
Stephen Randolph L 2003 · 4.83 FIP	29	SU	4.83	18.5%	14.8%	2.6%	.247	5.69	15.8%	-3.0%	82	+0.86	4.83	155	83
Jeff Ibarra L 2016 · 3.75 FIP	28	SU	3.75	17.8%	9.7%	1.7%	.321	3.29	19.2%	13.8%	66	-0.46	2.85	101	82
Aaron Brown L 2019 · 4.04 FIP	27	SU	4.04	22.9%	13.5%	2.1%	.317	4.77	19.4%	6.7%	129	+0.73	4.04	269	82
Ashur Tolliver L 2016 · 4.19 FIP	28	SU	4.19	21.3%	9.8%	3.0%	.308	5.03	13.8%	-5.1%	35	+0.84	3.49	134	81
Mitchell Tyranski L 2024 · 4.90 FIP	26	SU	4.90	21.0%	12.3%	3.7%	.234	3.46	20.5%	4.0%	57	-1.44	3.46	145	81
Jordan Harrison L 2019 · 3.80 FIP	28	SU	3.80	19.1%	9.7%	2.0%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	244	80
Keith Hessler L 2017 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	15.5%	11.8%	3.5%	.324	4.96	19.8%	6.5%	53	-0.22	3.31	228	78
Adam Liberatore L 2015 · 3.64 FIP	28	SU	3.64	21.1%	7.3%	2.5%	.267	3.17	23.3%	15.2%	73	-0.47	2.38	124	78
Jimmy Reyes L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	28	SU	4.92	13.8%	8.0%	3.6%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.02	200	77
Jesse Carlson L 2009 · 3.72 FIP	28	SU	3.72	17.5%	6.2%	2.4%	.279	5.39	13.6%	8.5%	14	+1.67	3.28	141	77
Jake Rice L 2024 · 3.75 FIP	27	SU	3.75	21.8%	13.8%	1.4%	.273	5.90	16.5%	0.9%	54	+2.15	3.16	199	76
Doug Slaten L 2008 · 4.56 FIP	28	SU	4.56	13.6%	8.8%	2.7%	.264	3.63	19.2%	10.2%	57	-0.93	3.22	139	76
Josh Osich L 2017 · 5.00 FIP	28	SU	5.00	21.4%	12.9%	3.8%	.328	4.47	21.1%	14.1%	143	-0.53	3.41	315	76
Jeremy Horst L 2013 · 4.46 FIP	27	SU	4.46	17.1%	8.9%	3.0%	.356	3.92	17.2%	5.4%	108	-0.54	2.12	181	75
Dario Alvarez L 2017 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	24.7%	12.4%	2.0%	.336	3.47	20.7%	8.3%	27	-0.21	3.47	160	75
John Bale L 2001 · 4.41 FIP	27	SU	4.41	18.6%	15.0%	1.8%	.219	4.12	19.0%	13.9%	46	-0.29	2.49	168	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	42	21.3%	10.1%	1.10	4.49
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Manny Acosta ('12)	1.2	41	20.5%	10.9%	1.09	3.99
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*
Ed Vosberg ('86-'02, 1 WAR*)	1.2	47	21.0%*	9.6%*	0.86*	4.06*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*