Luis De Avila

P Mississippi Braves

Age 26 LHP 5'9" / 215 lbs AA peak 0.5 · 2027

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	21	A+Rome Braves	24	24	126	3.49	3.26	24.2%	8.4%	—	K 18.6% · BB 9.7% · FIP 4.28
2023	22	MIX2 levels	26	26	127	3.26	3.44	23.6%	12.0%	—	K 19.4% · BB 12.9% · FIP 4.37
2024	23	AAMississippi B…	19	19	101	3.74	3.16	18.0%	10.5%	—	K 14.6% · BB 11.6% · FIP 3.66
2027PROJ	26	MLBATL	12	12	71	4.81	4.81	18.4%	10.6%	0.1
2028PROJ38% MLB	27	MLBATL	4	4	26	4.78	4.79	18.9%	10.5%	0.0
2029PROJ60% MLB	28	MLBATL	7	7	40	4.80	4.84	19.1%	10.6%	0.0

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsJustin Marks (age 27) · Chipper Smith (age 25) · Miguel Cienfuegos (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108116vR 125

ERA4.81

FIP4.81

K%18.4%

BB%10.6%

K-BB%7.8%

Proj IP71

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 71 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	17	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	8	7	31	135	27	12	2	88%	3.8	13.6%	11.1%	2.5%	2.1%	6.16	4.50	—
2018	17	ROK RAW	DSL Colorado	8	7	31	135	27	12	2	88%	3.8	20.0%	8.9%	11.1%	1.5%	6.16	3.36	—
2021	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	0	58	271	64	21	4	0%	2.1	17.9%	7.7%	10.2%	1.7%	4.99	3.51	—
2021	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	0	58	271	64	21	4	0%	2.1	23.6%	7.7%	15.9%	1.5%	4.99	2.87	—
2022	21	A+ MLE	Rome Braves	24	24	126	533	129	45	11	100%	5.3	18.6%	9.7%	8.9%	2.8%	3.49	4.28	—
2022	21	A+ RAW	Rome Braves	24	24	126	533	129	45	11	100%	5.3	24.2%	8.4%	15.8%	2.1%	3.49	3.26	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	127	542	128	65	8	100%	4.9	19.4%	12.9%	6.6%	2.3%	3.26	4.37	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	127	542	128	65	8	100%	4.9	23.6%	12.0%	11.6%	1.5%	3.26	3.44	—
2024	23	AA MLE	Mississippi Braves	19	19	101	438	79	46	2	100%	5.3	14.6%	11.6%	3.1%	0.6%	3.74	3.66	—
2024	23	AA MLE	Mississippi Braves	19	19	101	438	79	46	2	100%	5.3	14.6%	11.6%	3.1%	0.6%	3.74	3.66	—
2024	23	AA RAW	Mississippi Braves	19	19	101	438	79	46	2	100%	5.3	18.0%	10.5%	7.5%	0.5%	3.74	3.16	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	ATL	12	12	71	300	55	32	8	100%	5.9	18.4%	10.6%	7.8%	2.8%	4.81	4.81	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	ATL	12	12	70	294	56	31	8	100%	5.8	18.9%	10.5%	8.3%	2.9%	4.78	4.79	+0.1
2029	28	MLB MLE	ATL	11	11	68	285	54	30	8	100%	6.1	19.1%	10.6%	8.5%	3.0%	4.80	4.84	+0.0
2030	29	MLB MLE	ATL	11	11	64	272	52	29	9	100%	5.9	19.1%	10.8%	8.3%	3.1%	4.88	4.95	-0.0
2028	27	MLB CTX	ATL	4	4	26	110	21	12	3	100%	6.5	18.9%	10.5%	8.3%	2.9%	4.78	4.79	+0.0
2029	28	MLB CTX	ATL	7	7	40	169	32	18	5	100%	5.7	19.1%	10.6%	8.5%	3.0%	4.80	4.84	+0.0
2030	29	MLB CTX	ATL	8	8	46	194	37	21	6	100%	5.8	19.1%	10.8%	8.3%	3.1%	4.88	4.95	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		19	19	112	473	90	50	14	100%	5.9	19.1%	10.7%	8.4%	3.0%	4.83	4.49	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	161	89	25	100%	6.0	19.1%	10.7%	8.4%	3.0%	4.83	4.49	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		104	76	443	1919	336	208	38	73%	4.3	17.5%	10.8%	6.6%	2.0%	3.86	4.07	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		47	34	200	867	152	94	17	73%	4.3	17.5%	10.8%	6.6%	2.0%	3.86	4.07	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis De Avila (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.81	18.4%	10.6%	2.8%	—	4.86	19.0%	8.4%	202	+0.05	—	—	—
Justin Marks L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP-	4.60	15.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.323	3.88	19.0%	9.1%	216	-0.72	3.83	324	83
Chipper Smith L 2015 · 3.81 FIP	25	SP-	3.81	15.6%	9.5%	1.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	109	82
Miguel Cienfuegos L 2023 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP	5.12	13.6%	10.5%	3.4%	.257	4.54	14.3%	5.8%	242	-0.58	2.95	313	81
Jack Snodgrass L 2015 · 4.66 FIP	27	SP-	4.66	12.6%	10.7%	2.3%	.278	5.01	15.7%	5.6%	45	+0.35	4.66	118	81
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	80
Bryan Radziewski L 2015 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	16.4%	10.5%	2.0%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.15	106	80
Houston Harding L 2024 · 4.54 FIP	26	SP-	4.54	16.5%	11.2%	2.6%	.268	5.19	12.0%	0.5%	61	+0.65	3.41	239	80
Eric DuBose L 2003 · 3.92 FIP	27	SP-	3.92	14.4%	7.5%	2.0%	.233	5.49	13.7%	0.4%	104	+1.57	3.92	178	79
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	79
Danny Wirchansky L 2024 · 4.47 FIP	27	SP-	4.47	16.2%	7.4%	3.3%	.246	5.88	13.0%	0.2%	68	+1.41	4.47	179	79
Nick Additon L 2015 · 3.73 FIP	27	SP-	3.73	14.0%	7.9%	1.5%	.307	4.15	14.4%	7.1%	106	+0.42	3.13	217	77
Tate Kuehner L 2024 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP	4.08	20.5%	13.9%	1.7%	.275	3.85	20.3%	7.9%	164	-0.23	3.83	268	76
Josh Outman L 2011 · 4.03 FIP	26	SP-	4.03	13.8%	9.1%	1.7%	.302	3.80	21.8%	11.8%	123	-0.23	2.95	380	76
Brad Mills L 2011 · 5.37 FIP	26	SP-	5.37	19.8%	12.1%	4.4%	.328	5.61	18.8%	7.9%	21	+0.24	4.22	243	76
Scott DeCecco L 2015 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP-	4.55	14.5%	11.5%	2.2%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.55	125	75
Eric Wooten L 2015 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	14.6%	7.5%	2.2%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	116	75
Hayden Wynja L 2024 · 4.79 FIP	25	SP-	4.79	18.0%	10.5%	3.4%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	4.74	154	75
James Gillheeney L 2015 · 3.79 FIP	27	SP-	3.79	14.4%	8.0%	1.6%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	129	75
Grant Watson L 2017 · 4.70 FIP	24	SP-	4.70	16.4%	10.3%	3.0%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	2.59	180	75
Alex Cornwell L 2024 · 3.82 FIP	25	SP-	3.82	18.6%	9.9%	1.9%	.355	4.57	14.4%	4.8%	93	+0.75	3.16	381	74

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	68	18.9%	10.6%	1.14	4.82
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Mike Matthews ('05)	1.2	61	16.3%	11.3%	1.07	4.54
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*