Josh Gessner

P Hickory Crawdads

Age 27 RHP 6'1" / 205 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	22	MIX2 levels	14	6	47	5.70	3.82	25.0%	12.1%	—	K 17.0% · BB 15.0% · FIP 5.47
2023	23	MIX3 levels	11	6	31	3.73	3.71	24.4%	14.5%	—	K 15.5% · BB 19.5% · FIP 4.98
2024	24	A+TEX	10	0	12	3.00	5.68	7.1%	23.2%	—	K 5.5% · BB 26.7% · FIP 6.02
2027PROJ	27	MLBTEX	7	0	7	4.82	4.82	21.6%	12.1%	-0.0
2028PROJ37% MLB	28	MLBTEX	7	0	7	4.82	4.85	21.6%	11.9%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsTyler Yates (age 26) · Carlos Torres (age 27) · Shawn Dubin (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 108

ERA4.82

FIP4.82

K%21.6%

BB%12.1%

K-BB%9.5%

Proj IP7

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 7 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	19	ROK MLE	GCL Phillies West	6	3	13	55	17	7	0	50%	2.1	21.0%	15.9%	5.1%	0.0%	2.84	3.34	—
2019	19	ROK RAW	GCL Phillies West	6	3	13	55	17	7	0	50%	2.1	30.9%	12.7%	18.2%	0.0%	2.84	2.07	—
2021	21	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	11	8	37	160	64	22	0	73%	3.4	27.2%	17.2%	10.0%	0.0%	4.14	2.98	—
2021	21	ROK RAW	ACL Rangers	11	8	37	160	64	22	0	73%	3.4	40.0%	13.8%	26.2%	0.0%	4.14	1.42	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	6	47	224	56	27	5	43%	3.4	17.0%	15.0%	2.0%	3.5%	5.70	5.47	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	6	47	224	56	27	5	43%	3.4	25.0%	12.1%	12.9%	2.2%	5.70	3.82	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	11	6	31	131	32	19	2	55%	2.8	15.5%	19.5%	-4.0%	1.3%	3.73	4.98	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	11	6	31	131	32	19	2	55%	2.8	24.4%	14.5%	9.9%	1.5%	3.73	3.71	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Hickory Crawdads	10	0	12	56	4	13	0	0%	1.2	5.5%	26.7%	-21.2%	0.0%	3.00	6.02	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Hickory Crawdads	10	0	12	56	4	13	0	0%	1.2	5.5%	26.7%	-21.2%	0.0%	3.00	6.02	—
2024	24	A+ RAW	Hickory Crawdads	10	0	12	56	4	13	0	0%	1.2	7.1%	23.2%	-16.1%	0.0%	3.00	5.68	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	TEX	7	0	7	30	6	4	1	0%	1.0	21.6%	12.1%	9.5%	3.0%	4.82	4.82	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	TEX	19	0	20	84	18	10	3	0%	1.1	21.6%	11.9%	9.7%	3.1%	4.82	4.85	-0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	TEX	7	0	7	30	6	4	1	0%	1.0	21.6%	11.9%	9.7%	3.1%	4.82	4.85	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	0	7	31	7	4	1	0%	1.0	21.6%	11.9%	9.7%	3.1%	4.82	4.47	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	191	109	27	0%	1.1	21.6%	11.9%	9.7%	3.1%	4.82	4.47	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		52	23	140	626	116	110	10	44%	2.7	18.6%	17.6%	1.0%	1.5%	4.36	4.59	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		74	33	200	892	166	157	14	44%	2.7	18.6%	17.6%	1.0%	1.5%	4.36	4.59	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Josh Gessner (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.82	21.6%	12.1%	3.0%	—	4.85	21.6%	9.7%	20	+0.03	—	—	—
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	75
Carlos Torres R 2010 · 4.50 FIP	27	SW	4.50	18.3%	11.3%	2.8%	.438	3.89	20.1%	13.2%	139	-0.61	2.89	604	72
Shawn Dubin R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	27	SP-	4.87	20.0%	12.9%	3.3%	.292	3.97	21.8%	11.4%	79	-0.90	3.02	341	72
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	71
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	71
Cameron Foster R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	25	SW	4.83	17.4%	11.5%	3.2%	.321	3.09	25.5%	17.5%	60	-1.74	2.50	213	70
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	70
Andres Santiago R 2017 · 4.16 FIP	27	SW	4.16	16.3%	9.1%	2.3%	.384	5.26	13.1%	3.2%	159	+1.10	3.76	291	69
Danny Kirwin R 2024 · 4.19 FIP	24	SW	4.19	17.9%	9.9%	2.4%	.262	5.33	16.8%	4.6%	91	+1.14	4.16	161	68
Alfonso Sanchez R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.346	4.85	14.0%	5.3%	138	-0.11	4.51	224	68
Jake Stinnett R 2019 · 4.23 FIP	27	SW	4.23	21.1%	12.2%	2.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	356	67
Joel Seddon R 2019 · 4.87 FIP	27	SW	4.87	18.0%	10.8%	3.5%	.390	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	474	67
Orlando Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	27	SW	4.67	13.7%	10.6%	2.5%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	4.40	119	67
Kyle Lloyd R 2018 · 4.23 FIP	27	SP-	4.23	18.2%	9.8%	2.6%	.336	4.75	17.2%	9.3%	110	+0.52	3.50	572	67
Zach Stewart R 2015 · 4.43 FIP	28	SP-	4.43	14.4%	8.3%	2.7%	.322	5.17	11.7%	2.1%	51	+0.74	4.27	194	67
John Ely R 2011 · 4.38 FIP	25	SW	4.38	23.2%	10.7%	3.4%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	113	67
Noah Denoyer R 2023 · 5.24 FIP	25	SW	5.24	22.2%	14.0%	4.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.26	181	67
Sean Isaac R 2018 · 4.20 FIP	25	SW	4.20	24.2%	16.3%	2.0%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	155	66
Emmanuel Chapman R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	25	SW	4.08	19.7%	10.6%	2.4%	.256	4.52	17.8%	1.3%	117	+0.44	3.81	198	66
Jarret Whorff R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	25	SU	4.04	18.9%	10.2%	2.3%	.271	4.52	19.6%	12.0%	123	+0.48	3.88	257	66