Omar Cruz
P
El Paso Chihuahuas
+0.2
WAR
Age 27
LHP
6'0" / 210 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.7 · 2028
ERA4.64
FIP4.64
xFIP4.96
SIERA4.46
K%22.4%
BB%12.9%
K-BB%9.5%
IP81
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.7peak
2028
K†5560
FB+0.8 (62%)
CU (11%)
SL (1%)
CH-1.1 (26%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | AZL Padres 1 | 5 | 5 | 20 | 89 | 30 | 6 | 0 | 22.9% | 8.4% | 0.0% | 1.80 | 2.23 | +0.6 |
| 2019 | 20 | A | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 10 | 10 | 49 | 199 | 62 | 13 | 1 | 23.1% | 7.7% | 0.6% | 2.76 | 2.44 | +1.4 |
| 2021 | 22 | AA | Altoona Curve | 21 | 21 | 99 | 419 | 98 | 36 | 10 | 18.6% | 9.6% | 2.8% | 3.44 | 4.28 | +1.1 |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | Altoona Curve | 23 | 5 | 63 | 284 | 69 | 28 | 9 | 19.7% | 10.8% | 3.4% | 5.03 | 4.68 | +0.2 |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Altoona Curve | 27 | 1 | 48 | 216 | 44 | 30 | 2 | 16.5% | 15.3% | 1.0% | 3.94 | 4.20 | +0.4 |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | 34 | 7 | 86 | 365 | 118 | 36 | 4 | 27.1% | 10.5% | 1.3% | 3.96 | 2.87 | +2.3 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 33 | 11 | 87 | 397 | 93 | 58 | 9 | 20.4% | 15.2% | 2.7% | 4.76 | 4.77 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | 5 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 6 | 3 | 2 | — | — | — | 10.80 | — | — |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | SD | 15 | 15 | 81 | 341 | 76 | 44 | 9 | 22.4% | 12.9% | 2.6% | 4.64 | 4.64 | +0.4 |
| 2026 Total | 27 | MLB | SD | — | — | 84 | 360 | 82 | 47 | 11 | 22.8% | 13.0% | 3.0% | 4.88 | 4.46 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | SD | 15 | 15 | 82 | 344 | 77 | 43 | 9 | 22.3% | 12.4% | 2.7% | 4.61 | 4.62 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | SD | 14 | 14 | 80 | 337 | 81 | 38 | 9 | 24.1% | 11.3% | 2.7% | 4.46 | 4.37 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | SD | 14 | 14 | 77 | 326 | 78 | 37 | 9 | 23.9% | 11.3% | 2.8% | 4.44 | 4.43 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | SD | 14 | 14 | 75 | 315 | 74 | 36 | 9 | 23.6% | 11.4% | 2.9% | 4.48 | 4.50 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | SD | 13 | 13 | 72 | 302 | 71 | 35 | 9 | 23.4% | 11.5% | 3.0% | 4.54 | 4.59 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | SD | 12 | 12 | 68 | 289 | 67 | 34 | 9 | 23.1% | 11.7% | 3.0% | 4.63 | 4.68 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | SD | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 62 | 33 | 9 | 22.7% | 11.9% | 3.1% | 4.73 | 4.79 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | SD | 11 | 11 | 61 | 259 | 58 | 31 | 8 | 22.3% | 12.1% | 3.3% | 4.84 | 4.92 | +0.0 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | SD | 57 | — | 57 | 242 | 53 | 30 | 8 | 21.9% | 12.4% | 3.4% | 4.97 | 5.05 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 158 | 60 | 456 | 1988 | 422 | 229 | 42 | 21.2% | 11.5% | 2.1% | 3.97 | 3.93 | +7.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 69 | 26 | 200 | 873 | 185 | 101 | 18 | 21.2% | 11.5% | 2.1% | 3.97 | 3.93 | +3.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Omar Cruz (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.64 | 22.4% | 12.9% | 2.6% | — | 4.47 | 23.4% | 11.7% | 238 | -0.17 | — | — | — |
| Tommy Vail L 2025 · 4.86 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.86 | 19.7% | 16.4% | 2.4% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 151 | 69 |
| Christian MacLeod L 2024 · 3.87 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.87 | 19.2% | 12.8% | 1.4% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.87 | 236 | 66 |
| Matt Whitehouse L 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.55 | 17.0% | 12.8% | 2.3% | .308 | 4.06 | 20.1% | 9.2% | 81 | -0.49 | 3.37 | 353 | 63 |
| Aaron Rozek L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.83 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 3.8% | .311 | 4.07 | 17.1% | 9.9% | 231 | -0.76 | 3.74 | 454 | 62 |
| Luis Ysla L 2026 · 5.83 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.83 | 18.0% | 14.4% | 4.4% | .337 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.78 | 378 | 62 |
| Andy Oliver L 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.15 | 23.4% | 16.9% | 1.6% | .283 | 4.60 | 19.2% | 8.6% | 108 | +0.45 | 3.97 | 165 | 62 |
| Adam Laskey L 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.28 | 17.1% | 9.1% | 2.7% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.12 | 310 | 61 |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.14 | 16.2% | 9.2% | 2.3% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 300 | 60 |
| Aaron Brown L 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.02 | 22.9% | 13.5% | 2.1% | .317 | 4.77 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 129 | +0.75 | 4.02 | 269 | 60 |
| Tony Cingrani L 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.21 | 18.1% | 13.3% | 1.8% | .271 | 3.66 | 32.4% | 26.1% | 65 | -0.55 | 1.66 | 186 | 60 |
| Ryan Och L 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.84 | 19.5% | 13.9% | 1.1% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.54 | 124 | 60 |
| Chris Reed L 2025 · 4.70 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.70 | 16.4% | 9.8% | 3.2% | .238 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.70 | 137 | 60 |
| Lael Lockhart L 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.93 | 19.3% | 13.3% | 3.2% | .312 | 5.26 | 17.6% | 6.1% | 14 | +0.33 | 3.60 | 434 | 60 |
| Jeremy Horst L 2028 · 4.12 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.12 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.2% | .291 | 3.71 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.41 | 3.71 | 108 | 60 |
| Carlos Teller L 2027 · 3.74 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.74 | 13.8% | 10.9% | 0.8% | .329 | 4.75 | 13.3% | 3.1% | 187 | +1.01 | 3.74 | 333 | 60 |
| Orlando Lara L 2029 · 4.15 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.15 | 15.2% | 10.3% | 1.9% | .348 | 4.07 | 14.2% | 7.2% | 230 | -0.08 | 3.83 | 426 | 59 |
| Jordan Harrison L 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.87 | 19.4% | 14.3% | 1.1% | .246 | 3.82 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 49 | -0.05 | 3.82 | 244 | 59 |
| Robby Ahlstrom L 2025 · 4.58 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.58 | 19.4% | 15.5% | 2.1% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.93 | 264 | 59 |
| Sean Keselica L 2025 · 4.48 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.48 | 18.0% | 14.5% | 1.9% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.79 | 235 | 59 |
| Juan Grullon L 2025 · 4.67 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.67 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 3.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.67 | 134 | 59 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.4M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | +0.3 | $1M | +$1M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $7M | +0.1 | $0.5M | -$7M |
| Totals | $11M | $12M | +$0.8M | ||
Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.