Ryan Magdic — OGILVIE

Ryan Magdic P Las Vegas Aviators

Age 26 LHP 6'5" / 240 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.3 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION104 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 102110vR 118

ERA4.48

FIP4.48

K%17.4%

BB%6.9%

K-BB%10.5%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 110 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$2M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5050

CMD5050

K†4045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Arb-1	$0.6M	—	—	—
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	16	96	403	99	23	7	64%	3.9	18.3%	6.7%	11.6%	2.2%	3.36	3.62	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	16	96	403	99	23	7	64%	3.9	18.3%	6.7%	11.6%	2.2%	3.36	3.62	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	16	96	403	99	23	7	64%	3.9	24.6%	5.7%	18.9%	1.7%	3.36	2.71	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	30	15	104	434	93	15	17	50%	3.5	17.1%	3.6%	13.5%	4.5%	4.33	4.55	—
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	30	15	104	434	93	15	17	50%	3.5	17.1%	3.6%	13.5%	4.5%	4.33	4.55	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	A+ RAW	OAK	15	5	36	139	40	5	3	33%	2.4	28.8%	3.6%	25.2%	2.2%	3.22	2.31	—
2026	26	AA RAW	OAK	6	1	22	86	22	4	2	17%	3.7	25.6%	4.7%	20.9%	2.3%	2.86	2.81	—
2026	26	AAA RAW	OAK	9	9	46	209	31	6	12	100%	5.1	14.8%	2.9%	12.0%	5.7%	5.91	5.36	—
ROS	26	MLB MLE	OAK	1	1	6	25	4	2	1	100%	5.9	17.4%	6.9%	10.5%	2.9%	4.48	4.48	+0.0
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	OAK	—	—	110	459	97	17	18	—	—	21.2%	3.6%	17.6%	3.9%	4.34	4.55	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	OAK	15	15	100	423	76	30	13	100%	6.7	17.9%	7.1%	10.8%	3.0%	4.48	4.50	+0.5
2028	28	MLB MLE	OAK	15	15	97	411	74	30	13	100%	6.5	18.1%	7.3%	10.8%	3.1%	4.52	4.56	+0.4
2029	29	MLB MLE	OAK	14	14	93	392	71	30	13	100%	6.6	18.0%	7.5%	10.5%	3.2%	4.61	4.68	+0.2
2030	30	MLB MLE	OAK	13	13	87	369	66	29	13	100%	6.7	17.8%	7.8%	10.0%	3.4%	4.75	4.84	+0.1
2031	31	MLB MLE	OAK	12	12	81	344	60	28	13	100%	6.8	17.4%	8.2%	9.2%	3.6%	4.93	5.05	-0.1
2027	27	MLB CTX	OAK	7	7	43	182	32	13	5	100%	6.1	17.9%	7.1%	10.8%	2.9%	4.44	4.46	+0.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	OAK	9	9	61	258	47	19	8	100%	6.8	18.1%	7.3%	10.8%	3.0%	4.48	4.52	+0.2
2029	29	MLB CTX	OAK	10	10	68	287	52	22	9	100%	6.8	18.0%	7.5%	10.5%	3.1%	4.57	4.64	+0.2
2030	30	MLB CTX	OAK	11	11	70	296	53	23	10	100%	6.4	17.8%	7.8%	10.0%	3.3%	4.70	4.79	+0.0
2031	31	MLB CTX	OAK	11	11	69	291	51	24	10	100%	6.3	17.4%	8.2%	9.2%	3.5%	4.88	5.00	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		47	47	310	1310	233	100	42	100%	6.6	17.8%	7.6%	10.2%	3.2%	4.63	4.32	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		31	31	200	844	150	64	27	100%	6.5	17.8%	7.6%	10.2%	3.2%	4.63	4.32	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		55	31	200	837	148	43	28	56%	3.6	17.7%	5.1%	12.6%	3.4%	3.86	4.10	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		55	31	200	836	148	42	28	56%	3.6	17.7%	5.1%	12.6%	3.4%	3.86	4.10	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Magdic (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.48	17.4%	6.9%	2.9%	—	4.58	18.0%	10.7%	290	+0.10	—	—	—
Tommy Shirley L 2015 · 3.35 FIP	26	SP-	3.35	19.6%	7.0%	1.9%	.252	4.93	13.0%	4.2%	106	+1.58	3.35	147	84
Ben Holmes L 2018 · 4.02 FIP	26	SW	4.02	19.1%	9.3%	2.5%	.264	5.57	19.7%	8.6%	61	+1.55	3.09	451	81
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	80
Matt Tomshaw L 2015 · 3.91 FIP	26	SP-	3.91	13.8%	6.0%	2.2%	.318	3.57	16.0%	10.7%	401	-0.34	3.04	681	80
Eric Wooten L 2015 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	14.6%	7.5%	2.2%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	116	79
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	77
Nick Additon L 2015 · 3.73 FIP	27	SP-	3.73	14.0%	7.9%	1.5%	.307	4.15	14.4%	7.1%	106	+0.42	3.13	217	77
Jordan Carr L 2023 · 3.49 FIP	26	SW	3.49	17.2%	8.5%	1.4%	.270	5.16	12.7%	2.3%	137	+1.67	3.49	269	77
Irwin Delgado L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	26	SW	4.77	14.4%	9.6%	3.0%	.349	3.53	16.2%	7.6%	237	-1.24	3.52	383	77
Justin Marks L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP-	4.60	15.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.323	3.88	19.0%	9.1%	216	-0.72	3.83	324	76
Matt Tracy L 2015 · 3.96 FIP	26	SW	3.96	14.4%	9.8%	1.5%	.306	4.10	14.7%	5.5%	208	+0.14	3.24	298	75
Avery Weems L 2022 · 4.87 FIP	25	SP-	4.87	21.3%	8.6%	4.5%	.323	5.13	20.5%	12.3%	38	+0.26	2.46	227	74
Chris Reed L 2016 · 4.67 FIP	26	SW	4.67	16.4%	9.8%	3.1%	.238	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	137	74
Jason Wheeler L 2017 · 4.40 FIP	26	SP-	4.40	16.1%	5.8%	3.5%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	401	74
John Michael Bertrand L 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	14.8%	8.1%	1.5%	.294	4.33	14.1%	5.2%	345	+0.62	3.71	463	74
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	74
Jack Snodgrass L 2015 · 4.66 FIP	27	SP-	4.66	12.6%	10.7%	2.3%	.278	5.01	15.7%	5.6%	45	+0.35	4.66	118	73
Duane Below L 2015 · 3.63 FIP	29	SW	3.63	12.5%	3.7%	2.0%	.266	4.57	14.7%	9.6%	140	+0.94	3.63	189	73
Tyler Alexander L 2019 · 5.56 FIP	27	SP-	5.56	21.7%	9.8%	5.6%	.289	5.27	15.7%	5.0%	26	-0.29	5.27	128	72
Chipper Smith L 2015 · 3.81 FIP	25	SP-	3.81	15.6%	9.5%	1.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	109	72

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.6	88	17.8%	7.5%	1.24	4.62
Luis Perdomo ('22)	2.3	90	16.6%	7.8%	1.08	5.09
Jaime Barria ('23)	2.3	77	17.9%	7.7%	1.61	4.38
Yonny Chirinos ('24)	1.7	84	18.9%	6.6%	1.38	4.37
Alec Mills ('21)	1.1	72	19.0%	6.9%	1.41	4.51
Josh Fleming ('24)	1.3	51	14.6%	7.5%	1.17	4.77
Wade LeBlanc ('21)	2.4	81	18.0%	6.0%	1.67	4.61