Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 17 | ROK | AZL Indians 2 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 63 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 83% | 2.6 | 23.7% | 7.9% | 15.8% | 0.0% | 1.76 | 2.10 | — |
| 2018 | 17 | ROK | AZL Indians 2 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 63 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 83% | 2.6 | 34.9% | 6.3% | 28.6% | 0.0% | 1.76 | 1.01 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A | Lynchburg Hillcats | 20 | 19 | 69 | 327 | 73 | 48 | 5 | 95% | 3.4 | 16.5% | 17.3% | -0.8% | 2.2% | 6.29 | 5.11 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A | Lynchburg Hillcats | 20 | 19 | 69 | 327 | 73 | 48 | 5 | 95% | 3.4 | 22.3% | 14.7% | 7.6% | 1.5% | 6.29 | 4.02 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 4 | 33 | 166 | 37 | 29 | 7 | 27% | 2.2 | 17.1% | 19.9% | -2.8% | 4.3% | 6.48 | 6.51 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 4 | 33 | 166 | 37 | 29 | 7 | 27% | 2.2 | 22.3% | 17.5% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 6.48 | 6.22 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | Lake County Captains | 34 | 0 | 39 | 190 | 53 | 34 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 21.5% | 20.6% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 5.03 | 4.54 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | Lake County Captains | 34 | 0 | 39 | 190 | 53 | 34 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 27.9% | 17.9% | 10.0% | 1.1% | 5.03 | 3.66 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Akron RubberDucks | 41 | 0 | 52 | 208 | 63 | 21 | 4 | 0% | 1.3 | 24.5% | 11.1% | 13.4% | 2.5% | 2.26 | 3.80 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Akron RubberDucks | 41 | 0 | 52 | 208 | 63 | 21 | 4 | 0% | 1.3 | 30.3% | 10.1% | 20.2% | 1.9% | 2.26 | 2.89 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 0 | 49 | 230 | 52 | 37 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.5% | 17.0% | 1.6% | 5.4% | 5.88 | 6.63 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 0 | 49 | 230 | 52 | 37 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.6% | 16.1% | 6.5% | 3.5% | 5.88 | 5.37 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AAA | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | 10 | 0 | 12 | 52 | 15 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | — | — | — | — | 6.94 | — | — |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | PHI | 57 | 0 | 60 | 251 | 49 | 43 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.7% | 17.3% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 5.96 | 5.96 | -1.0 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | PHI | 6 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.7% | 17.3% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 5.96 | 5.96 | -0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 71 | 303 | 64 | 51 | 11 | — | — | 21.2% | 17.0% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 6.12 | 4.98 | -0.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 6 | 25 | 5 | 4 | 1 | — | — | 19.6% | 17.3% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 5.96 | 5.58 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | PHI | 57 | 0 | 60 | 251 | 51 | 41 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.2% | 16.5% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 5.78 | 5.77 | -0.8 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | PHI | 56 | 0 | 59 | 247 | 51 | 40 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.5% | 16.0% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 5.69 | 5.70 | -0.8 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | PHI | 28 | 0 | 29 | 122 | 25 | 20 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.2% | 16.5% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 5.78 | 5.77 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | PHI | 37 | 0 | 39 | 165 | 34 | 26 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.5% | 16.0% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 5.69 | 5.70 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 70 | 0 | 73 | 310 | 63 | 50 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.3% | 16.3% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 5.75 | 5.37 | -0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 172 | 136 | 30 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.3% | 16.3% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 5.75 | 5.37 | +0.1 | ||
| Career | — | 175 | 28 | 269 | 1236 | 247 | 204 | 36 | 16% | 1.5 | 20.0% | 16.5% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 5.05 | 5.10 | +0.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 130 | 21 | 200 | 919 | 184 | 152 | 27 | 16% | 1.5 | 20.0% | 16.5% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 5.05 | 5.10 | +0.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Lenny Torres Jr. (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.96 | 19.7% | 17.3% | 3.5% | — | 5.74 | 20.3% | 4.1% | 118 | -0.22 | — | — | — |
| Kevin Kopps R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.78 | 20.2% | 15.1% | 2.7% | .278 | 4.59 | 16.5% | 2.8% | 182 | -0.19 | 3.64 | 237 | 88 |
| Haden Erbe R 2026 · 5.35 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.35 | 18.4% | 16.5% | 3.1% | .320 | 5.49 | 17.8% | 0.5% | 40 | +0.14 | 5.17 | 116 | 88 |
| Preston Johnson R 2026 · 5.04 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.04 | 21.1% | 17.2% | 2.8% | .270 | 3.47 | 23.4% | 13.9% | 42 | -1.57 | 3.47 | 146 | 88 |
| Zane Morehouse R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.86 | 19.3% | 15.8% | 2.5% | .321 | 6.20 | 18.6% | -0.4% | 17 | +1.34 | 2.62 | 116 | 85 |
| Andrew McInvale R 2026 · 5.08 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.08 | 17.6% | 15.9% | 2.6% | .324 | 7.06 | 24.5% | 10.0% | 23 | +1.98 | 4.90 | 103 | 85 |
| Caleb Simpson R 2026 · 5.35 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.35 | 23.7% | 17.2% | 3.8% | .263 | 3.98 | 23.5% | 5.1% | 71 | -1.37 | 3.28 | 197 | 85 |
| Jeff Ames R 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.06 | 18.0% | 16.1% | 2.6% | .229 | 4.27 | 25.2% | 11.2% | 142 | -0.79 | 3.89 | 272 | 84 |
| Nick Ernst R 2026 · 4.99 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.99 | 21.9% | 14.6% | 3.4% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 117 | 84 |
| Ryan Sublette R 2026 · 5.60 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.60 | 19.9% | 17.5% | 3.6% | .214 | 4.77 | 19.0% | 3.2% | 53 | -0.83 | 3.73 | 203 | 83 |
| Morgan McSweeney R 2026 · 5.37 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.37 | 19.6% | 14.7% | 3.8% | .256 | 3.94 | 15.0% | 5.6% | 61 | -1.43 | 3.94 | 189 | 83 |
| Fernando Baez R 2026 · 5.39 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.39 | 24.3% | 21.2% | 3.0% | .271 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 129 | 83 |
| Alejandro Torres R 2026 · 6.52 FIP | 25 | SU | 6.52 | 18.3% | 20.1% | 4.4% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 103 | 82 |
| Matt Lollis R 2026 · 5.05 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.05 | 19.2% | 14.5% | 3.2% | .221 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.59 | 120 | 82 |
| Billy Seidl R 2025 · 4.87 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.87 | 18.3% | 14.2% | 2.8% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.34 | 102 | 81 |
| Tyler Bradt R 2025 · 5.09 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.09 | 19.0% | 18.7% | 2.2% | .241 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 135 | 81 |
| Josh Harlow R 2025 · 5.71 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.71 | 17.1% | 21.3% | 2.5% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.52 | 107 | 81 |
| Christopher Troye R 2026 · 5.42 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.42 | 24.2% | 17.0% | 4.0% | .282 | 5.50 | 19.1% | -3.8% | 30 | +0.08 | 3.42 | 158 | 81 |
| Jonathan Teaney R 2024 · 6.06 FIP | 23 | SU | 6.06 | 16.4% | 15.7% | 4.3% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.70 | 108 | 81 |
| Tanner Duncan R 2025 · 5.45 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.45 | 17.5% | 14.8% | 3.6% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 123 | 81 |
| Julian Arballo R 2028 · 5.47 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.47 | 15.1% | 13.8% | 3.5% | .335 | 4.38 | 12.6% | 0.6% | 116 | -1.09 | 4.28 | 214 | 80 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 59 | 20.1% | 16.6% | 1.36 | 5.81 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Michael Kopech ('24) | 4 | 96 | 26.1% | 12.5% | 1.45 | 4.15 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |