Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 14 | 56 | 230 | 70 | 13 | 2 | 82% | 3.3 | 22.9% | 6.7% | 16.2% | 0.8% | 2.40 | 2.44 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 14 | 56 | 230 | 70 | 13 | 2 | 82% | 3.3 | 30.4% | 5.7% | 24.8% | 0.9% | 2.40 | 1.77 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 23 | 112 | 469 | 145 | 37 | 12 | 96% | 4.7 | 25.5% | 8.6% | 16.8% | 3.0% | 4.25 | 3.70 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 23 | 112 | 469 | 145 | 37 | 12 | 96% | 4.7 | 30.9% | 7.9% | 23.0% | 2.6% | 4.25 | 2.90 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 26 | 139 | 566 | 131 | 38 | 14 | 100% | 5.3 | 22.9% | 6.8% | 16.1% | 2.6% | 3.96 | 3.47 | +3.1 |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 26 | 139 | 566 | 131 | 38 | 14 | 100% | 5.3 | 23.1% | 6.7% | 16.4% | 2.5% | 3.96 | 3.35 | +3.3 |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 21 | 21 | 89 | 411 | 79 | 50 | 18 | 100% | 4.2 | 19.1% | 12.6% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 7.58 | 5.90 | -0.8 |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 21 | 21 | 89 | 411 | 79 | 50 | 18 | 100% | 4.2 | 19.2% | 12.2% | 7.1% | 4.4% | 7.58 | 5.64 | -0.5 |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 15 | 96 | 437 | 90 | 61 | 13 | 41% | 2.6 | 17.9% | 15.4% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 6.02 | 5.32 | -0.0 |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 15 | 96 | 437 | 90 | 61 | 13 | 41% | 2.6 | 20.6% | 14.0% | 6.6% | 3.0% | 6.02 | 4.90 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | LAD | 8 | 8 | 49 | 207 | 45 | 29 | 7 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.7% | 13.9% | 7.7% | 3.6% | 5.28 | 5.36 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | LAD | 12 | 12 | 71 | 299 | 65 | 42 | 11 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.6% | 14.1% | 7.5% | 3.7% | 5.38 | 5.45 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | LAD | 11 | 11 | 68 | 286 | 60 | 41 | 11 | 100% | 6.2 | 21.0% | 14.3% | 6.7% | 3.8% | 5.52 | 5.61 | -0.7 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | LAD | 8 | 8 | 45 | 190 | 41 | 27 | 7 | 100% | 5.6 | 21.6% | 14.1% | 7.5% | 3.7% | 5.38 | 5.45 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | LAD | 8 | 8 | 50 | 211 | 44 | 30 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 21.0% | 14.3% | 6.7% | 3.8% | 5.52 | 5.61 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 53 | 52 | 281 | 1194 | 264 | 120 | 46 | 98% | 5.3 | 22.1% | 10.1% | 12.0% | 3.9% | 5.44 | 4.63 | +2.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 38 | 37 | 200 | 850 | 188 | 85 | 33 | 98% | 5.3 | 22.1% | 10.1% | 12.0% | 3.9% | 5.44 | 4.63 | +1.8 | ||
| Career | — | 125 | 99 | 492 | 2113 | 458 | 213 | 66 | 79% | 3.9 | 21.7% | 10.1% | 11.6% | 3.1% | 4.90 | 4.26 | +6.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 51 | 40 | 200 | 859 | 186 | 87 | 27 | 79% | 3.9 | 21.7% | 10.1% | 11.6% | 3.1% | 4.90 | 4.26 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Bobby Miller (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.36 | 21.7% | 13.9% | 3.6% | — | 5.53 | 21.3% | 7.1% | 139 | +0.17 | — | — | — |
| Dawson Netz R 2024 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.42 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 3.5% | .225 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 102 | 59 |
| Connor Schultz R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.85 | 21.5% | 10.9% | 4.0% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 171 | 57 |
| Brian Edgington R 2025 · 5.05 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.05 | 19.3% | 12.3% | 3.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 171 | 57 |
| Darien Smith R 2025 · 4.67 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.67 | 19.0% | 12.9% | 2.8% | .212 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 102 | 57 |
| Kyle Wright R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.41 | 21.9% | 11.0% | 3.2% | .354 | 5.32 | 20.2% | 4.7% | 13 | +0.91 | 3.32 | 669 | 56 |
| Shelby Miller R 2026 · 5.68 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.68 | 24.1% | 10.1% | 6.1% | .404 | 4.86 | 19.0% | 5.2% | 102 | -0.82 | 2.93 | 694 | 56 |
| Kyle Brnovich R 2026 · 5.49 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.49 | 19.6% | 13.6% | 4.2% | .330 | 6.70 | 15.2% | 5.2% | 69 | +1.21 | 3.69 | 333 | 56 |
| Matt Frisbee R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.36 | 18.3% | 14.3% | 1.8% | .369 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.07 | 463 | 55 |
| Shawn Dubin R 2026 · 5.35 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.35 | 20.5% | 15.1% | 3.8% | .292 | 3.91 | 21.8% | 11.4% | 79 | -1.44 | 3.04 | 341 | 55 |
| Logan Martin R 2024 · 5.68 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.68 | 20.8% | 12.7% | 5.0% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.93 | 223 | 54 |
| Austin Bergner R 2026 · 5.40 FIP | 27 | SP | 5.40 | 22.3% | 13.6% | 4.5% | .325 | 4.40 | 18.7% | 7.0% | 107 | -1.00 | 4.00 | 464 | 54 |
| Trent Sellers R 2025 · 5.09 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.09 | 23.5% | 14.2% | 4.0% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.39 | 236 | 54 |
| Tony Gonsolin R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.55 | 27.2% | 14.2% | 3.5% | .250 | 4.09 | 21.7% | 13.9% | 233 | -0.46 | 2.06 | 688 | 54 |
| Noah Song R 2025 · 6.24 FIP | 26 | SP | 6.24 | 12.0% | 13.2% | 4.5% | .239 | 4.28 | 17.8% | 4.6% | 85 | -1.96 | 3.62 | 106 | 54 |
| Alejandro Martinez R 2025 · 4.24 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.24 | 17.5% | 10.9% | 2.3% | .393 | 4.44 | 9.2% | 3.9% | 53 | +0.20 | 4.24 | 166 | 54 |
| Chad Kuhl R 2026 · 5.27 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.27 | 22.3% | 14.2% | 4.1% | .231 | 4.80 | 18.8% | 8.0% | 256 | -0.47 | 3.93 | 983 | 54 |
| Kyle Lloyd R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.17 | 18.2% | 9.8% | 2.5% | .336 | 4.33 | 17.2% | 9.3% | 110 | +0.16 | 3.46 | 572 | 53 |
| Nick Fraze R 2026 · 5.29 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.29 | 14.9% | 11.8% | 3.6% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 278 | 53 |
| Jack Weisenburger R 2027 · 5.11 FIP | 28 | SP- | 5.11 | 18.6% | 13.5% | 3.4% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 128 | 53 |
| Paul Clemens R 2026 · 5.36 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.36 | 14.3% | 14.1% | 3.1% | .310 | 4.76 | 16.9% | 7.3% | 200 | -0.60 | 4.76 | 247 | 52 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 63 | 21.4% | 14.1% | 1.42 | 5.40 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Michael Kopech ('24) | 4 | 96 | 26.1% | 12.5% | 1.45 | 4.15 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |