Bobby Miller

P Oklahoma City Comets

Age 28 RHP 6'5" / 220 lbs AAA peak 0.8 · 2027

Overview

AAARP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX3 levels	21	21	89	7.58	5.64	19.2%	12.2%	-0.2	K 18.9% · BB 12.0% · FIP 5.55
2025	26	MIX2 levels	37	15	96	6.02	4.90	20.6%	14.0%	-0.4	K 17.5% · BB 13.2% · FIP 5.00
2026	27	MIX2 levels	12	1	25	5.11	4.80	26.2%	10.3%	-0.1	K 23.2% · BB 9.7% · FIP 5.63
2027PROJ	28	MLBLAD	28	28	169	5.43	5.21	21.7%	13.0%	0.4
2028PROJ95% MLB	29	MLBLAD	20	20	122	5.39	5.37	21.1%	13.2%	0.0
2029PROJ95% MLB	30	MLBLAD	17	17	101	5.50	5.57	20.4%	13.6%	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.7 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024

FB Velo90

K%36

xwOBA vs10

CompsClay Condrey (age 27) · Zach Stewart (age 28) · Vanny Valenzuela (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 143135vR 126

ERA5.43

FIP5.21

K%21.7%

BB%13.0%

K-BB%8.6%

Proj IP169

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 169 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL3535

CMD3535

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9097.6

Whiff%

p3923.7%

p3620.2%

xwOBA vs

p100.396

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	14	56	230	70	13	2	82%	3.3	22.9%	6.7%	16.2%	0.7%	2.40	2.41	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	14	56	230	70	13	2	82%	3.3	30.4%	5.7%	24.8%	0.9%	2.40	1.77	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	23	112	469	145	37	12	96%	4.7	25.5%	8.6%	16.8%	3.0%	4.25	3.69	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	23	112	469	145	37	12	96%	4.7	30.9%	7.9%	23.0%	2.6%	4.25	2.90	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	139	566	131	38	14	100%	5.3	22.8%	6.6%	16.2%	2.4%	3.96	3.34	+3.5
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	139	566	131	38	14	100%	5.3	23.1%	6.7%	16.4%	2.5%	3.96	3.35	+3.5
2024	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	21	89	411	79	50	18	100%	4.2	18.9%	12.0%	7.0%	4.6%	7.58	5.55	-0.2
2024	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	21	89	411	79	50	18	100%	4.2	18.9%	12.0%	7.0%	4.6%	7.58	5.55	-0.2
2024	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	21	89	411	79	50	18	100%	4.2	19.2%	12.2%	7.1%	4.4%	7.58	5.64	-0.2
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	15	96	437	90	61	13	41%	2.6	17.5%	13.2%	4.2%	3.1%	6.02	5.00	-0.5
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	15	96	437	90	61	13	41%	2.6	17.5%	13.2%	4.2%	3.1%	6.02	5.00	-0.5
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	15	96	437	90	61	13	41%	2.6	20.6%	14.0%	6.6%	3.0%	6.02	4.90	-0.4
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	1	25	107	28	11	5	8%	2.1	23.2%	9.7%	13.5%	5.9%	5.11	5.63	-0.3
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	1	25	107	28	11	5	8%	2.1	23.2%	9.7%	13.5%	5.9%	5.11	5.63	-0.3
2026	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	1	25	107	28	11	5	8%	2.1	26.2%	10.3%	15.9%	4.7%	5.11	4.80	-0.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			40	36	193	824	186	66	32	90%	4.8	22.6%	8.0%	14.6%	3.9%	5.37	4.36	+2.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	LAD	28	28	169	714	155	93	25	100%	6.0	21.7%	13.0%	8.6%	3.5%	5.43	5.21	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	LAD	21	21	128	542	114	72	20	100%	6.1	21.1%	13.2%	7.8%	3.6%	5.39	5.37	+0.0
2029	30	MLB MLE	LAD	18	18	106	449	91	61	17	100%	5.9	20.4%	13.6%	6.8%	3.8%	5.50	5.57	-0.2
2028	29	MLB CTX	LAD	20	20	122	515	109	68	19	100%	6.1	21.1%	13.2%	7.8%	3.6%	5.39	5.37	+0.0
2029	30	MLB CTX	LAD	17	17	101	426	87	58	16	100%	5.9	20.4%	13.6%	6.8%	3.8%	5.50	5.57	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		77	73	416	1765	381	192	67	95%	5.4	21.6%	10.9%	10.7%	3.8%	5.41	4.73	+3.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	35	200	850	183	92	32	95%	5.4	21.6%	10.9%	10.7%	3.8%	5.41	4.73	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		137	100	517	2220	480	211	68	73%	3.8	21.6%	9.5%	12.2%	3.1%	4.91	4.16	+2.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	39	200	859	186	81	26	73%	3.8	21.6%	9.5%	12.2%	3.1%	4.91	4.16	+1.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAOklahoma City Comets · 17 IPFIP 5.15 → 5.63 (+0.48)K% 27.0% → 23.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.03%	—	×0.860	23.24%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.81%	—	×0.900	9.73%
HR / BF /BF	5.41%	÷1.000	×1.100	5.95%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.15 → 5.63, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAOklahoma City Comets · 91 IPFIP 4.72 → 5.00 (+0.28)K% 20.3% → 17.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.29%	—	×0.860	17.45%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.67%	—	×0.900	13.20%
HR / BF /BF	2.69%	÷0.956	×1.100	3.09%

Result: FIP 4.72 → 5.00, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAOklahoma City Baseball Club · 27 IPFIP 3.73 → 3.88 (+0.15)K% 19.0% → 16.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.01%	—	×0.860	16.35%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.05%	—	×0.900	12.64%
HR / BF /BF	0.83%	÷0.896	×1.100	1.01%

Result: FIP 3.73 → 3.88, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ARancho Cucamonga Quakes · 6 IPFIP 3.23 → 3.72 (+0.49)K% 12.5% → 9.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	12.50%	—	×0.740	9.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.38%	—	×1.180	11.06%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.072	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 114).

Result: FIP 3.23 → 3.72, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAOklahoma City Dodgers · 14 IPFIP 4.48 → 4.76 (+0.28)K% 19.7% → 16.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.67%	—	×0.860	16.92%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.84%	—	×0.900	8.85%
HR / BF /BF	3.28%	÷1.006	×1.100	3.59%

Result: FIP 4.48 → 4.76, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AATulsa Drillers · 91 IPFIP 2.69 → 3.52 (+0.83)K% 30.5% → 24.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.47%	—	×0.810	24.68%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.07%	—	×1.100	8.88%
HR / BF /BF	2.08%	÷0.993	×1.200	2.52%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 99).

Result: FIP 2.69 → 3.52, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAOklahoma City Dodgers · 21 IPFIP 3.80 → 4.44 (+0.65)K% 32.9% → 29.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.94%	—	×0.880	28.99%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.06%	—	×1.050	7.41%
HR / BF /BF	4.71%	÷0.997	×1.100	5.19%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 99).

Result: FIP 3.80 → 4.44, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Great Lakes Loons · 47 IPFIP 1.62 → 2.41 (+0.79)K% 29.8% → 22.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.79%	—	×0.770	22.94%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.85%	—	×1.150	6.73%
HR / BF /BF	0.53%	÷0.930	×1.250	0.72%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 86).

Result: FIP 1.62 → 2.41, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bobby Miller (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.21	21.7%	13.0%	3.5%	—	5.46	20.8%	7.4%	235	+0.25	—	—	—
Clay Condrey R 2003 · 5.41 FIP	27	SP-	5.41	14.9%	10.1%	4.2%	.303	4.07	13.1%	7.4%	29	-1.34	3.18	250	65
Zach Stewart R 2015 · 4.43 FIP	28	SP-	4.43	14.4%	8.3%	2.7%	.322	5.17	11.7%	2.1%	51	+0.74	4.27	194	60
Vanny Valenzuela R 2016 · 4.54 FIP	28	SP	4.54	16.3%	11.3%	2.5%	.380	6.25	10.9%	1.2%	25	+1.71	3.26	118	59
Ramon Ramirez R 2008 · 4.31 FIP	25	SP-	4.31	20.0%	10.5%	2.9%	.200	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	182	59
Dustin Nippert R 2009 · 4.09 FIP	28	SP-	4.09	18.0%	9.7%	2.3%	.271	4.49	17.9%	6.1%	57	+0.40	3.83	268	58
Jake Walkinshaw R 2024 · 4.03 FIP	28	SP	4.03	16.1%	8.5%	2.2%	.244	3.83	15.7%	5.7%	92	-0.20	2.84	310	58
Austin Bergner R 2024 · 4.84 FIP	27	SP	4.84	22.2%	12.5%	3.7%	.325	4.42	18.7%	7.3%	107	-0.42	4.06	464	57
Noah Song R 2023 · 6.06 FIP	26	SP	6.06	12.0%	13.2%	4.2%	.239	3.80	19.8%	8.3%	116	-2.26	3.68	138	56
Drake Fellows R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	26	SP-	4.97	16.1%	12.7%	2.9%	.293	4.85	14.2%	6.3%	207	-0.12	4.28	282	56
Jefry Rodriguez R 2021 · 5.03 FIP	28	SW	5.03	19.4%	13.5%	3.4%	.287	4.58	19.8%	6.8%	64	-0.45	3.30	578	56
Jason García R 2021 · 4.76 FIP	28	SP-	4.76	17.7%	13.5%	2.6%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.16	356	56
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	56
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	56
Aldo Montes R 2017 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.4%	8.5%	3.3%	.322	4.69	18.2%	7.6%	75	-0.27	4.69	210	55
Bradin Hagens R 2018 · 4.92 FIP	29	SP-	4.92	14.9%	9.9%	3.3%	.341	5.46	13.2%	0.6%	66	+0.54	3.79	254	55
Brandon Beachy R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	28	SP	4.58	16.1%	11.2%	2.6%	.265	—	—	—	—	—	1.97	364	55
Brady Rodgers R 2019 · 5.44 FIP	28	SP-	5.44	14.7%	9.0%	4.4%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	1.98	354	55
Eddie Bonine R 2009 · 5.60 FIP	28	SW	5.60	13.1%	7.6%	4.8%	.306	4.54	8.6%	2.0%	68	-1.06	4.40	129	55
David Griffin R 2023 · 5.83 FIP	27	SP-	5.83	14.2%	9.2%	5.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.43	239	54
Orlando Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	27	SW	4.67	13.7%	10.6%	2.5%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	4.40	119	54

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.0	119	21.6%	11.6%	1.43	5.42
Matt Beech ('98)	1.5	98	20.2%	10.0%	1.59	5.37
Jeff Robinson ('87-'92, 0 WAR*)	3.5	118	18.3%*	10.9%*	1.38*	5.14*
Kevin Foster ('01)	2.5	127	18.9%	10.0%	1.55	4.86
Tim Lollar ('80-'86, 3 WAR*)	4.5	129	21.2%*	12.2%*	1.35*	4.94*
Chris Knapp ('75-'80, -1 WAR*)	3.0	121	21.3%*	9.3%*	1.41*	5.48*
Jason Bere ('03)	5.6	123	18.4%	12.6%	1.17	5.14