Freddy Tarnok
P
Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp
Age 27
RHP
6'4" / 185 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 112 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132123vR 114
ERA4.81
FIP5.03
K%22.6%
BB%12.5%
K-BB%10.2%
ROS IP113
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 112 IP
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
FB+1.2 (41%)
SL+0.6 (17%)
CH (25%)
SI (7%)
CU (18%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 18 | ROK | GCL Braves | 8 | 8 | 14 | 58 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 1.8 | 11.7% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 0.0% | 2.57 | 2.93 | — |
| 2017 | 18 | ROK | GCL Braves | 8 | 8 | 14 | 58 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 1.8 | 17.2% | 5.2% | 12.1% | 0.0% | 2.57 | 2.31 | — |
| 2018 | 19 | A | Rome Braves | 27 | 11 | 77 | 356 | 83 | 41 | 5 | 41% | 2.9 | 17.3% | 13.6% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 3.96 | 4.68 | — |
| 2018 | 19 | A | Rome Braves | 27 | 11 | 77 | 356 | 83 | 41 | 5 | 41% | 2.9 | 23.3% | 11.5% | 11.8% | 1.4% | 3.96 | 3.38 | — |
| 2019 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 22 | 106 | 461 | 91 | 37 | 7 | 100% | 4.8 | 14.6% | 9.6% | 5.0% | 2.1% | 4.75 | 4.22 | — |
| 2019 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 22 | 106 | 461 | 91 | 37 | 7 | 100% | 4.8 | 19.7% | 8.0% | 11.7% | 1.5% | 4.75 | 3.29 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 14 | 73 | 299 | 109 | 28 | 8 | 88% | 4.6 | 28.9% | 10.5% | 18.4% | 4.6% | 3.44 | 4.49 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 14 | 73 | 299 | 109 | 28 | 8 | 88% | 4.6 | 36.5% | 9.4% | 27.1% | 2.7% | 3.44 | 2.69 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 26 | 23 | 107 | 459 | 125 | 44 | 15 | 88% | 4.1 | 22.8% | 10.4% | 12.4% | 4.2% | 4.02 | 4.81 | +0.7 |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 26 | 23 | 107 | 459 | 125 | 44 | 15 | 88% | 4.1 | 27.2% | 9.6% | 17.6% | 3.3% | 4.02 | 3.82 | +2.0 |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 11 | 7 | 36 | 151 | 27 | 23 | 6 | 64% | 3.3 | 16.4% | 15.7% | 0.8% | 4.4% | 2.97 | 6.14 | -0.7 |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 11 | 7 | 36 | 151 | 27 | 23 | 6 | 64% | 3.3 | 17.9% | 15.2% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 2.97 | 5.66 | -0.5 |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 7 | 32 | 147 | 36 | 19 | 7 | 30% | 1.4 | 22.0% | 14.7% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 7.39 | 6.28 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 7 | 32 | 147 | 36 | 19 | 7 | 30% | 1.4 | 24.5% | 12.9% | 11.6% | 4.8% | 7.39 | 5.50 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 10 | 76 | 306 | 83 | 35 | 8 | 29% | 2.2 | 23.1% | 11.7% | 11.4% | 3.4% | 3.20 | 4.52 | +0.3 |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 10 | 76 | 306 | 83 | 35 | 8 | 29% | 2.2 | 27.1% | 11.4% | 15.7% | 2.6% | 3.20 | 3.67 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | MIA | 21 | 21 | 127 | 537 | 122 | 67 | 18 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.6% | 12.5% | 10.2% | 3.4% | 4.81 | 5.03 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | MIA | 21 | 21 | 124 | 521 | 117 | 63 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.4% | 12.1% | 10.3% | 3.5% | 4.91 | 5.03 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | MIA | 20 | 20 | 118 | 498 | 109 | 60 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.8% | 12.0% | 9.8% | 3.6% | 5.02 | 5.13 | +0.4 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | MIA | 9 | 9 | 53 | 224 | 50 | 27 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.4% | 12.1% | 10.3% | 3.5% | 4.91 | 5.03 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | MIA | 12 | 12 | 70 | 296 | 64 | 36 | 11 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.8% | 12.0% | 9.8% | 3.6% | 5.02 | 5.13 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 31 | 21 | 145 | 612 | 139 | 77 | 23 | 68% | 4.7 | 22.7% | 12.6% | 10.1% | 3.8% | 4.82 | 4.87 | +0.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 43 | 29 | 200 | 845 | 192 | 106 | 32 | 68% | 4.6 | 22.7% | 12.6% | 10.1% | 3.8% | 4.82 | 4.87 | +1.2 | ||
| Career | — | 167 | 102 | 522 | 2237 | 455 | 257 | 77 | 61% | 3.1 | 20.3% | 11.5% | 8.8% | 3.4% | 4.05 | 4.72 | +4.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 64 | 39 | 200 | 857 | 174 | 98 | 29 | 61% | 3.1 | 20.3% | 11.5% | 8.8% | 3.4% | 4.05 | 4.72 | +1.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Freddy Tarnok (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.03 | 22.6% | 12.5% | 3.4% | — | 5.08 | 22.1% | 10.1% | 241 | +0.05 | — | — | — |
| Dawson Netz R 2024 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.42 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 3.5% | .225 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 102 | 76 |
| Shawn Dubin R 2026 · 5.35 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.35 | 20.5% | 15.1% | 3.8% | .292 | 3.91 | 21.8% | 11.4% | 79 | -1.44 | 3.04 | 341 | 72 |
| Colby Morris R 2024 · 5.76 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.76 | 16.2% | 11.8% | 4.6% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 105 | 69 |
| Jonathan Pintaro R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.11 | 24.4% | 13.2% | 2.5% | .302 | 3.12 | 26.0% | 15.4% | 35 | -0.99 | 3.12 | 187 | 68 |
| Logan Martin R 2024 · 5.68 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.68 | 20.8% | 12.7% | 5.0% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.93 | 223 | 68 |
| Brian Edgington R 2025 · 5.05 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.05 | 19.3% | 12.3% | 3.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 171 | 67 |
| Paul Clemens R 2026 · 5.36 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.36 | 14.3% | 14.1% | 3.1% | .310 | 4.76 | 16.9% | 7.3% | 200 | -0.60 | 4.76 | 247 | 67 |
| Trent Sellers R 2025 · 5.09 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.09 | 23.5% | 14.2% | 4.0% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.39 | 236 | 67 |
| Kyle Lloyd R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.17 | 18.2% | 9.8% | 2.5% | .336 | 4.33 | 17.2% | 9.3% | 110 | +0.16 | 3.46 | 572 | 67 |
| Blake Beers R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.20 | 18.3% | 9.1% | 2.7% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.20 | 416 | 65 |
| Dakota Hawkins R 2025 · 3.90 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.90 | 16.7% | 6.8% | 2.5% | .243 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 167 | 65 |
| Alfonso Sanchez R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.81 | 12.5% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .346 | 4.97 | 14.0% | 5.3% | 138 | +0.16 | 4.54 | 224 | 65 |
| Joel Seddon R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.69 | 18.0% | 10.8% | 3.2% | .390 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 474 | 64 |
| Tyler Ivey R 2025 · 5.93 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.93 | 23.0% | 11.3% | 6.1% | .395 | 5.44 | 16.2% | 3.7% | 122 | -0.49 | 2.96 | 304 | 64 |
| Chase Whitley R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.04 | 19.5% | 7.0% | 3.1% | .217 | 3.24 | 18.0% | 11.8% | 81 | -0.80 | 3.11 | 159 | 64 |
| Andres Santiago R 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.27 | 16.3% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .384 | 5.45 | 13.1% | 3.2% | 159 | +1.18 | 3.74 | 291 | 64 |
| Logan Workman R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.96 | 22.7% | 12.9% | 3.9% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 540 | 64 |
| Michael Murray R 2024 · 4.45 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.45 | 16.2% | 12.9% | 2.0% | .405 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 116 | 63 |
| Taylor Grover R 2025 · 4.89 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.89 | 20.0% | 10.9% | 3.8% | .320 | 4.92 | 16.2% | 8.9% | 14 | +0.03 | 3.63 | 239 | 63 |
| Nick Fraze R 2026 · 5.29 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.29 | 14.9% | 11.8% | 3.6% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 278 | 63 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 123 | 22.3% | 12.2% | 1.35 | 4.91 |
| James Kaprielian ('23) | 3 | 105 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 1.26 | 4.58 |
| Tom Koehler ('17) | 3 | 146 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.24 | 4.62 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez ('17) | 3 | 156 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 1.32 | 5.33 |
| Josiah Gray ('23) | 3 | 126 | 22.6% | 10.8% | 1.88 | 4.64 |
| Brandon Finnegan ('18) | 3 | 80 | 19.7% | 11.6% | 1.57 | 4.19 |
| Tyson Ross ('19) | 4 | 107 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 0.84 | 4.31 |