Freddy Tarnok — OGILVIE

Freddy Tarnok P Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp

+0.1 WAR

Age 27 RHP 6'4" / 185 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2026

ERA4.85

FIP4.82

xFIP3.08

SIERA3.02

K%22.8%

BB%11.4%

K-BB%11.4%

IP53

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.1peak

2026

STUF5050

CTRL4545

CMD5050

K†5555

FB Velo

p6095.2

Whiff%

p2421.7%

p4521.5%

xwOBA vs

p100.399

FB+1.2 (41%)

SL+0.6 (17%)

CH (25%)

SI (7%)

CU (18%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2017	18	ROK	GCL Braves	8	8	14	58	10	3	0	11.7%	6.5%	0.0%	2.57	2.93	+0.3
2018	19	A	Rome Braves	27	11	77	356	83	41	5	17.3%	13.6%	2.0%	3.96	4.48	+0.5
2019	20	A+	Florida Fire Frogs	22	22	106	461	91	37	7	14.6%	9.6%	1.9%	4.75	4.13	+1.4
2021	22	AA	Mississippi Braves	16	14	73	299	109	28	8	28.9%	10.5%	4.0%	3.44	4.21	+0.7
2022	23	MLB	Atlanta Braves	26	23	107	459	125	44	15	22.8%	10.4%	4.0%	4.02	4.67	+0.8
2023	24	MLB	Oakland Athletics	11	7	36	151	27	23	6	16.4%	15.7%	4.3%	2.97	6.08	-0.5
2024	25	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	23	7	32	147	36	19	7	22.0%	14.7%	5.7%	7.39	6.24	-0.5
2025	26	MLB	Miami Marlins	34	10	76	306	83	35	8	23.1%	11.7%	3.1%	3.20	4.35	+0.6
▸ 2026 Season
2026	27	MLB	MIA	53	—	53	225	51	26	7	22.8%	11.6%	3.3%	4.88	4.85	+0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	28	MLB	MIA	52	—	52	221	50	25	7	22.8%	11.5%	3.3%	4.82	4.82	+0.1
2028	29	MLB	MIA	51	—	51	216	48	25	7	22.4%	11.4%	3.3%	4.83	4.86	+0.1
2029	30	MLB	MIA	50	—	50	210	46	24	7	21.9%	11.3%	3.4%	4.87	4.92	+0.0
2030	31	MLB	MIA	48	—	48	203	43	23	7	21.3%	11.4%	3.4%	4.95	5.01	-0.0
2031	32	MLB	MIA	46	—	46	195	40	23	7	20.7%	11.6%	3.5%	5.06	5.13	-0.1
2032	33	MLB	MIA	44	—	44	186	37	22	7	20.0%	11.7%	3.6%	5.18	5.25	-0.1
2033	34	MLB	MIA	42	—	42	176	34	21	7	19.3%	11.9%	3.7%	5.31	5.39	-0.2
2034	35	MLB	MIA	39	—	39	166	31	20	6	18.6%	12.2%	3.8%	5.45	5.54	-0.3
2035	36	MLB	MIA	37	—	37	155	28	19	6	17.8%	12.4%	3.9%	5.60	5.71	-0.3
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			167	102	522	2237	455	257	71	20.3%	11.5%	3.2%	4.05	4.57	+4.3
/ 200 IP	—			64	39	200	857	174	98	27	20.3%	11.5%	3.2%	4.05	4.57	+1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Freddy Tarnok (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.85	22.8%	11.6%	3.3%	—	4.87	22.4%	11.0%	153	+0.02	—	—	—
Joe Colón J R 2026 · 4.30 FIP	27	SU	4.30	20.4%	12.1%	2.5%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.24	113	81
Spencer Bivens R 2027 · 4.85 FIP	28	SU	4.85	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.87	18.2%	10.2%	272	-0.98	3.45	315	79
José Cisnero R 2026 · 4.50 FIP	27	SU	4.50	26.1%	11.7%	3.9%	.367	3.92	24.5%	13.3%	75	-0.58	2.26	279	78
Cole McDonald R 2026 · 5.16 FIP	27	SU	5.16	21.1%	13.8%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.84	153	78
Beck Wheeler R 2026 · 4.41 FIP	27	SW	4.41	24.9%	14.5%	2.9%	.360	5.38	15.3%	3.1%	58	+0.97	3.46	173	78
Hunter Parsons R 2025 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	22.8%	10.9%	4.3%	.274	6.70	25.5%	9.0%	29	+1.77	4.76	183	78
Tanner Scheppers R 2027 · 4.38 FIP	28	SW	4.38	17.7%	11.2%	2.5%	.263	4.82	15.7%	9.0%	48	+0.44	4.38	101	77
Collin Baumgartner R 2025 · 3.76 FIP	26	SW	3.76	23.9%	12.3%	2.0%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	2.99	117	77
Trevin Michael R 2026 · 3.82 FIP	27	SW	3.82	23.0%	9.1%	2.8%	.230	—	—	—	—	—	2.68	149	77
Michael Ynoa R 2026 · 4.68 FIP	27	SU	4.68	23.1%	13.8%	3.2%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	3.32	142	77
Nolan Clenney R 2026 · 4.81 FIP	27	SW	4.81	23.3%	10.7%	4.2%	.341	4.59	17.2%	7.5%	71	-0.22	3.74	223	77
Brad Deppermann R 2026 · 4.30 FIP	27	SU	4.30	22.7%	9.4%	3.5%	.417	2.29	18.7%	12.7%	59	-2.01	1.94	131	77
Luis Mateo R 2026 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	17.6%	11.2%	2.8%	.309	5.45	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.87	3.47	160	76
Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.57 FIP	27	SU	4.57	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.08	3.70	187	76
José A. Váldez R 2026 · 4.55 FIP	27	SW	4.55	21.6%	8.3%	4.0%	.325	4.15	18.8%	6.4%	153	-0.40	4.02	328	76
Grant Sides R 2026 · 3.83 FIP	27	SW	3.83	22.4%	11.9%	2.0%	.247	3.31	21.7%	11.9%	47	-0.52	3.31	159	76
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 5.00 FIP	27	SU	5.00	22.2%	11.4%	4.2%	.256	4.51	23.3%	9.7%	39	-0.49	2.65	315	76
Ryan Cook R 2027 · 4.78 FIP	28	SW	4.78	16.5%	9.9%	3.3%	.297	3.85	25.1%	14.3%	50	-0.93	3.85	102	76
Matt Pidich R 2026 · 4.56 FIP	27	SW	4.56	20.4%	11.0%	3.3%	.342	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	196	76
Wirfin Obispo R 2029 · 4.83 FIP	30	SU	4.83	18.6%	12.2%	3.2%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.52	1.30	218	76

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.