Freddy Tarnok — OGILVIE

Freddy Tarnok P Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp

Age 27 RHP 6'4" / 185 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 10 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.71

FIP4.86

K%21.5%

BB%10.9%

K-BB%10.6%

ROS IP10

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 10 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL4545

CMD5050

K†5050

FB+1.2 (41%)

SL+0.6 (17%)

CH (25%)

SI (7%)

CU (18%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	18	ROK MLE	GCL Braves	8	8	14	58	10	3	0	100%	1.8	11.7%	6.5%	5.3%	0.0%	2.57	2.93	—
2017	18	ROK RAW	GCL Braves	8	8	14	58	10	3	0	100%	1.8	17.2%	5.2%	12.1%	0.0%	2.57	2.31	—
2018	19	A MLE	Rome Braves	27	11	77	356	83	41	5	41%	2.9	17.3%	13.6%	3.7%	2.1%	3.96	4.50	—
2018	19	A RAW	Rome Braves	27	11	77	356	83	41	5	41%	2.9	23.3%	11.5%	11.8%	1.4%	3.96	3.38	—
2019	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	106	461	91	37	7	100%	4.8	14.6%	9.6%	5.0%	1.9%	4.75	4.12	—
2019	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	106	461	91	37	7	100%	4.8	19.7%	8.0%	11.7%	1.5%	4.75	3.29	—
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	14	73	299	109	28	8	88%	4.6	28.9%	10.5%	18.4%	3.8%	3.44	4.10	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	14	73	299	109	28	8	88%	4.6	36.5%	9.4%	27.1%	2.7%	3.44	2.69	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	23	107	459	125	44	15	88%	4.1	22.8%	10.4%	12.4%	4.0%	4.02	4.69	+0.3
2022	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	23	107	459	125	44	15	88%	4.1	27.2%	9.6%	17.6%	3.3%	4.02	3.82	+1.4
2023	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	11	7	36	151	27	23	6	64%	3.3	16.1%	14.5%	1.5%	4.6%	2.97	6.10	-0.5
2023	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	11	7	36	151	27	23	6	64%	3.3	16.1%	14.5%	1.5%	4.6%	2.97	6.10	-0.5
2023	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	11	7	36	151	27	23	6	64%	3.3	17.9%	15.2%	2.6%	4.0%	2.97	5.66	-0.3
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	7	32	147	36	19	7	30%	1.4	20.8%	12.6%	8.2%	5.7%	7.39	6.08	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	7	32	147	36	19	7	30%	1.4	20.8%	12.6%	8.2%	5.7%	7.39	6.08	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	7	32	147	36	19	7	30%	1.4	24.5%	12.9%	11.6%	4.8%	7.39	5.50	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	10	76	306	83	35	8	29%	2.2	21.8%	10.0%	11.8%	3.1%	3.20	4.22	+0.3
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	10	76	306	83	35	8	29%	2.2	21.8%	10.0%	11.8%	3.1%	3.20	4.22	+0.3
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	10	76	306	83	35	8	29%	2.2	27.1%	11.4%	15.7%	2.6%	3.20	3.67	+0.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			11	1	23	96	25	15	5	9%	2.1	26.0%	15.6%	10.4%	5.2%	3.97	5.75	-0.3
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	27	MLB	MIA	2	2	10	42	9	5	1	100%	5.0	21.5%	10.9%	10.6%	3.3%	4.71	4.86	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	MIA	21	21	124	521	112	56	18	100%	5.9	21.4%	10.8%	10.7%	3.4%	4.79	4.89	+0.0
2028	29	MLB MLE	MIA	20	20	118	498	104	54	17	100%	5.9	20.9%	10.8%	10.1%	3.5%	4.89	5.00	-0.1
2029	30	MLB MLE	MIA	18	18	111	468	95	51	17	100%	6.2	20.2%	10.9%	9.3%	3.7%	5.04	5.17	-0.3
2027	28	MLB CTX	MIA	9	9	53	224	48	24	8	100%	5.9	21.4%	10.8%	10.7%	3.4%	4.79	4.89	+0.0
2028	29	MLB CTX	MIA	12	12	70	296	62	32	10	100%	5.8	20.9%	10.8%	10.1%	3.5%	4.89	5.00	-0.1
2029	30	MLB CTX	MIA	13	13	78	329	67	36	12	100%	6.0	20.2%	10.9%	9.3%	3.7%	5.04	5.17	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		44	34	223	941	200	106	35	77%	5.1	21.3%	11.3%	10.0%	3.7%	4.83	4.76	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		40	31	200	845	180	95	31	77%	5.0	21.3%	11.3%	10.0%	3.7%	4.83	4.76	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		167	102	522	2237	448	247	71	61%	3.1	20.0%	11.0%	9.0%	3.2%	4.05	4.54	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		64	39	200	857	172	95	27	61%	3.1	20.0%	11.0%	9.0%	3.2%	4.05	4.54	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Freddy Tarnok (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.86	21.5%	10.9%	3.3%	—	5.01	20.9%	10.1%	352	+0.15	—	—	—
Shawn Dubin R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	27	SP-	4.93	19.3%	12.9%	3.3%	.292	3.97	21.8%	11.4%	79	-0.96	3.02	341	73
Tristan Stevens R 2023 · 4.14 FIP	25	SW	4.14	17.3%	8.2%	2.7%	.411	3.68	15.0%	7.7%	91	-0.46	3.68	126	71
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	70
Kyle Lloyd R 2018 · 4.23 FIP	27	SP-	4.23	18.2%	9.8%	2.6%	.336	4.75	17.2%	9.3%	110	+0.52	3.50	572	69
Alfonso Sanchez R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.346	4.85	14.0%	5.3%	138	-0.11	4.51	224	68
Paul Clemens R 2015 · 5.37 FIP	27	SP-	5.37	14.3%	14.1%	3.1%	.310	4.62	16.9%	7.3%	200	-0.75	4.58	247	67
Chase Whitley R 2016 · 4.10 FIP	27	SP-	4.10	19.5%	7.0%	3.2%	.217	3.22	18.0%	11.8%	81	-0.88	3.09	159	67
Chris Kachmar R 2023 · 4.82 FIP	26	SW	4.82	20.5%	7.8%	4.5%	.319	4.67	18.2%	7.1%	248	-0.15	4.29	360	66
Andres Santiago R 2017 · 4.16 FIP	27	SW	4.16	16.3%	9.1%	2.3%	.384	5.26	13.1%	3.2%	159	+1.10	3.76	291	66
Orlando Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	27	SW	4.67	13.7%	10.6%	2.5%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	4.40	119	66
Tyler Ivey R 2022 · 5.63 FIP	26	SW	5.63	23.0%	11.3%	5.5%	.395	5.21	15.3%	4.6%	122	-0.42	2.93	304	66
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	66
Aldo Montes R 2017 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.4%	8.5%	3.3%	.322	4.69	18.2%	7.6%	75	-0.27	4.69	210	66
Joel Seddon R 2019 · 4.87 FIP	27	SW	4.87	18.0%	10.8%	3.5%	.390	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	474	65
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	64
Michael Murray R 2019 · 4.47 FIP	25	SP-	4.47	16.2%	12.9%	2.0%	.405	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	116	64
Aaron Northcraft R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	26	SW	4.19	16.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.309	3.32	24.1%	13.4%	34	-0.87	3.32	252	64
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	64
Zac Kristofak R 2023 · 4.10 FIP	25	SW	4.10	15.5%	8.9%	2.1%	.252	4.70	10.8%	5.0%	19	+0.60	4.10	168	64
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	63

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.4	120	21.0%	10.8%	1.34	4.85
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Josiah Gray ('23)	1.9	126	22.6%	10.8%	1.88	4.64
Ian Anderson ('22)	1.4	91	22.5%	10.4%	0.96	3.97
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Triston McKenzie ('24)	2.1	105	26.0%	9.4%	1.52	3.94