Gerald Ogando — OGILVIE

Gerald Ogando P Norfolk Tides

Age 26 RHP 6'2" / 180 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION48 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.52

FIP4.52

K%21.9%

BB%11.8%

K-BB%10.1%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 54 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL4545

CMD5050

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	17	ROK MLE	DSL D-backs 1	6	0	16	76	15	7	1	0%	2.7	13.4%	11.5%	1.9%	1.8%	7.16	4.44	—
2017	17	ROK RAW	DSL D-backs 1	6	0	16	76	15	7	1	0%	2.7	19.7%	9.2%	10.5%	1.3%	7.16	3.34	—
2018	18	ROK MLE	DSL D-backs 1	12	11	52	220	35	22	3	92%	4.3	10.8%	12.5%	-1.7%	1.9%	3.29	4.82	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	DSL D-backs 1	12	11	52	220	35	22	3	92%	4.3	15.9%	10.0%	5.9%	1.4%	3.29	3.77	—
2019	19	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	9	7	34	142	35	15	1	78%	3.8	16.8%	13.2%	3.6%	1.0%	3.18	3.90	—
2019	19	ROK RAW	ACL D-backs	9	7	34	142	35	15	1	78%	3.8	24.6%	10.6%	14.1%	0.7%	3.18	2.75	—
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	0	31	136	31	9	3	0%	1.4	17.2%	7.7%	9.4%	3.1%	3.19	4.34	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	0	31	136	31	9	3	0%	1.4	22.8%	6.6%	16.2%	2.2%	3.19	3.23	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	0	31	119	27	9	3	0%	1.5	19.4%	9.7%	9.8%	4.1%	3.23	4.95	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	0	31	119	27	9	3	0%	1.5	22.7%	7.6%	15.1%	2.5%	3.23	3.49	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	33	0	44	204	57	30	4	0%	1.3	20.0%	17.8%	2.3%	2.4%	5.48	5.00	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	33	0	44	204	57	30	4	0%	1.3	20.0%	17.8%	2.3%	2.4%	5.48	5.00	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	33	0	44	204	57	30	4	0%	1.3	27.9%	14.7%	13.2%	2.0%	5.48	3.73	—
2025	25	AA MLE	Chesapeake Baysox	36	0	50	218	59	22	2	0%	1.4	21.9%	11.1%	10.8%	0.9%	3.58	3.14	—
2025	25	AA MLE	Chesapeake Baysox	36	0	50	218	59	22	2	0%	1.4	21.9%	11.1%	10.8%	0.9%	3.58	3.14	—
2025	25	AA RAW	Chesapeake Baysox	36	0	50	218	59	22	2	0%	1.4	27.1%	10.1%	17.0%	0.9%	3.58	2.58	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	42	0	48	220	57	37	3	0%	1.1	21.2%	16.0%	5.2%	1.5%	5.10	4.16	—
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	42	0	48	220	57	37	3	0%	1.1	21.2%	16.0%	5.2%	1.5%	5.10	4.16	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AA RAW	BAL	20	0	21	93	31	10	0	0%	1.1	33.3%	10.8%	22.6%	0.0%	3.80	1.65	—
2026	26	AAA RAW	BAL	22	0	26	127	26	27	3	0%	1.2	20.5%	21.3%	-0.8%	2.4%	6.15	5.36	—
ROS	26	MLB MLE	BAL	6	0	6	25	5	3	1	0%	1.0	21.9%	11.8%	10.1%	2.5%	4.52	4.52	+0.0
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	BAL	—	—	54	245	62	40	4	—	—	25.5%	16.3%	9.2%	1.5%	5.03	4.20	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	BAL	66	0	69	291	64	34	8	0%	1.0	22.0%	11.6%	10.4%	2.6%	4.52	4.54	+0.0
2028	28	MLB MLE	BAL	64	0	67	282	62	33	8	0%	1.0	22.0%	11.6%	10.4%	2.8%	4.56	4.60	-0.0
2029	29	MLB MLE	BAL	61	0	64	270	59	32	8	0%	1.0	21.8%	11.7%	10.1%	2.9%	4.65	4.72	-0.1
2027	27	MLB CTX	BAL	28	0	29	122	27	14	3	0%	1.0	22.0%	11.6%	10.4%	2.6%	4.52	4.54	+0.0
2028	28	MLB CTX	BAL	40	0	42	177	39	21	5	0%	1.1	22.0%	11.6%	10.4%	2.8%	4.56	4.60	-0.0
2029	29	MLB CTX	BAL	45	0	47	198	43	23	6	0%	1.0	21.8%	11.7%	10.1%	2.9%	4.65	4.72	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		113	0	118	500	110	58	14	0%	1.0	21.9%	11.7%	10.3%	2.8%	4.59	4.25	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	186	98	24	0%	1.1	21.9%	11.7%	10.3%	2.8%	4.59	4.25	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		181	18	306	1335	240	173	26	10%	1.7	17.9%	12.9%	5.0%	2.0%	4.11	4.31	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		118	12	200	872	156	113	17	10%	1.7	17.9%	12.9%	5.0%	2.0%	4.11	4.31	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Gerald Ogando (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.52	21.9%	11.8%	2.5%	—	4.62	22.0%	10.3%	200	+0.10	—	—	—
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	91
Ronald Peña R 2018 · 4.19 FIP	26	SU	4.19	23.4%	11.6%	2.9%	.273	4.52	18.7%	7.1%	88	+0.33	3.72	187	89
Daniel Corcino R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	21.7%	11.4%	2.2%	.292	4.91	19.0%	7.9%	223	+0.98	3.84	299	89
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	88
Colton Murray R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	26	SU	3.97	21.2%	9.4%	2.7%	.295	4.27	21.8%	13.1%	41	+0.30	3.34	187	87
Jeff Ames R 2017 · 3.94 FIP	26	SU	3.94	25.1%	13.4%	2.3%	.310	4.65	25.4%	10.8%	79	+0.71	3.85	272	87
Héctor Neris R 2015 · 4.00 FIP	26	SU	4.00	20.9%	10.0%	2.5%	.298	3.03	31.5%	23.7%	221	-0.97	2.03	682	86
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	86
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	86
Jason Stoffel R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	26	SU	3.61	23.4%	10.1%	2.2%	.267	3.49	27.2%	19.2%	59	-0.12	3.49	103	86
Dylan Hall R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	25	SU	3.98	21.0%	13.2%	1.8%	.305	7.24	15.1%	2.4%	58	+3.26	3.47	153	86
Mason Vinyard R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	24	SU	3.73	22.7%	13.6%	1.5%	.270	4.67	19.3%	5.9%	147	+0.94	3.60	207	85
R.J. Alaniz R 2017 · 3.91 FIP	26	SU	3.91	20.7%	8.9%	2.6%	.318	3.28	23.8%	15.0%	96	-0.63	2.45	362	85
Dustin Antolin R 2016 · 3.43 FIP	26	SU	3.43	23.9%	13.1%	1.3%	.286	4.35	16.2%	1.8%	50	+0.92	2.95	159	85
Kyle Schepel R 2017 · 3.54 FIP	26	SU	3.54	21.6%	11.6%	1.5%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.54	156	85
Cody Satterwhite R 2015 · 3.71 FIP	28	SU	3.71	20.2%	9.8%	1.9%	.333	4.04	17.7%	10.2%	75	+0.33	3.69	147	85
Gonzalez Germen R 2015 · 4.24 FIP	27	SU	4.24	18.0%	12.5%	1.9%	.296	3.88	19.2%	8.3%	54	-0.36	3.70	146	85
Eduard Santos R 2016 · 3.86 FIP	26	SU	3.86	22.2%	14.4%	1.5%	.248	2.04	31.1%	18.7%	16	-1.82	2.04	138	85
Chase Plymell R 2023 · 4.23 FIP	25	SU	4.23	19.2%	13.0%	2.0%	.330	4.53	13.6%	5.9%	162	+0.30	3.85	291	85
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	26	SU	4.46	19.9%	9.8%	3.3%	.278	4.79	22.7%	10.3%	89	+0.33	2.64	315	85

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	67	21.9%	11.7%	1.05	4.56
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Archie Bradley ('21)	2.2	74	23.2%	9.8%	0.85	3.93