Tyler Brown prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Tyler Brown P Corpus Christi Hooks

Age 27 RHP 6'4" / 242 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 29 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.68

FIP4.68

K%21.7%

BB%11.1%

K-BB%10.6%

ROS IP29

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 29 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	15	91	420	108	56	18	65%	3.9	20.2%	15.0%	5.1%	4.7%	6.95	5.91	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	15	91	420	108	56	18	65%	3.9	25.7%	13.3%	12.4%	4.3%	6.95	5.15	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	11	70	319	74	29	16	58%	3.7	19.2%	10.3%	8.9%	6.2%	6.46	6.17	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	11	70	319	74	29	16	58%	3.7	23.2%	9.1%	14.1%	5.0%	6.46	5.21	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	56	241	56	30	8	0%	1.3	19.0%	13.7%	5.3%	2.2%	3.72	4.42	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	56	241	56	30	8	0%	1.3	19.0%	13.7%	5.3%	2.2%	3.72	4.42	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	0	56	241	56	30	8	0%	1.3	23.2%	12.4%	10.8%	3.3%	3.72	4.57	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	27	MLB	HOU	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.7%	11.1%	10.6%	3.0%	4.68	4.68	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	HOU	27	0	28	119	26	13	4	0%	1.0	21.8%	11.1%	10.7%	3.1%	4.69	4.73	-0.1
2027	28	MLB CTX	HOU	10	0	11	46	10	5	1	0%	1.1	21.8%	11.1%	10.7%	3.1%	4.69	4.73	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	0	11	45	10	5	1	0%	1.1	21.8%	11.1%	10.7%	3.1%	4.69	4.35	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	188	94	19	0%	1.1	21.8%	11.1%	10.7%	3.1%	4.69	4.35	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		85	26	216	980	192	129	45	31%	2.5	19.6%	13.2%	6.4%	4.6%	5.96	5.63	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		79	24	200	907	178	119	42	31%	2.5	19.6%	13.2%	6.4%	4.6%	5.96	5.63	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tyler Brown (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.68	21.7%	11.1%	3.0%	—	4.73	21.8%	10.7%	28	+0.05	—	—	—
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	79
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	79
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	78
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	76
Jake Stinnett R 2019 · 4.23 FIP	27	SW	4.23	21.1%	12.2%	2.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	356	76
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	76
Carlos Torres R 2010 · 4.50 FIP	27	SW	4.50	18.3%	11.3%	2.8%	.438	3.89	20.1%	13.2%	139	-0.61	2.89	604	75
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	75
Tristan Stevens R 2023 · 4.14 FIP	25	SW	4.14	17.3%	8.2%	2.7%	.411	3.68	15.0%	7.7%	91	-0.46	3.68	126	75
Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	4.34	19.4%	10.8%	193	+0.10	3.88	257	75
Roberto Gómez R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	27	SW	3.95	18.4%	8.9%	2.3%	.315	5.25	13.8%	4.9%	18	+1.30	3.95	115	74
Calvin Drummond R 2016 · 3.55 FIP	26	SW	3.55	16.9%	11.1%	0.9%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	112	74
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	74
Andres Santiago R 2017 · 4.16 FIP	27	SW	4.16	16.3%	9.1%	2.3%	.384	5.26	13.1%	3.2%	159	+1.10	3.76	291	73
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.11	17.6%	6.7%	206	+1.46	3.65	248	72
Noah Denoyer R 2023 · 5.24 FIP	25	SW	5.24	22.2%	14.0%	4.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.26	181	72
Linder Castro R 2017 · 4.63 FIP	26	SW	4.63	18.9%	10.7%	3.2%	.305	5.68	21.1%	6.3%	62	+1.05	4.23	279	72
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	72
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.23	26.7%	16.4%	76	-0.81	2.28	121	71
Logan Taylor R 2018 · 4.79 FIP	26	SU	4.79	17.2%	12.1%	2.9%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	300	71

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	29	21.7%	11.1%	1.17	4.68
Manny Acosta ('12)	1.2	41	20.5%	10.9%	1.09	3.99
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68
Chris Ray ('11)	1.4	47	19.1%	10.2%	1.12	4.10
Yorkis Perez ('02)	1.4	40	20.8%	11.8%	0.93	4.44