Aldry Acosta prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Aldry Acosta P Tulsa Drillers

Age 26 RHP 6'4" / 235 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 36 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124115vR 107

ERA4.76

FIP4.76

K%18.8%

BB%9.8%

K-BB%8.9%

ROS IP37

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 36 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	17	ROK MLE	DSL Dodgers 2	14	14	57	212	48	10	0	100%	4.1	15.4%	5.9%	9.5%	0.0%	1.26	2.55	—
2017	17	ROK RAW	DSL Dodgers 2	14	14	57	212	48	10	0	100%	4.1	22.6%	4.7%	17.9%	0.0%	1.26	1.94	—
2018	18	ROK MLE	AZL Dodgers	12	7	41	177	36	15	2	58%	3.4	13.8%	10.6%	3.2%	1.6%	4.39	4.14	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	AZL Dodgers	12	7	41	177	36	15	2	58%	3.4	20.3%	8.5%	11.9%	1.1%	4.39	3.08	—
2019	19	ROK MLE	AZL Dodgers Mota	8	4	16	66	14	7	2	50%	2.0	14.4%	13.3%	1.2%	4.2%	5.06	5.89	—
2019	19	ROK RAW	AZL Dodgers Mota	8	4	16	66	14	7	2	50%	2.0	21.2%	10.6%	10.6%	3.0%	5.06	4.29	—
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	52	234	65	16	2	0%	1.5	20.8%	8.0%	12.9%	1.1%	4.47	2.98	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	0	52	234	65	16	2	0%	1.5	27.8%	6.8%	20.9%	0.9%	4.47	2.03	—
2022	22	A+ MLE	Great Lakes Loons	20	1	24	101	16	10	0	5%	1.2	12.2%	11.4%	0.8%	0.0%	0.74	3.51	—
2022	22	A+ RAW	Great Lakes Loons	20	1	24	101	16	10	0	5%	1.2	15.8%	9.9%	5.9%	0.0%	0.74	3.02	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	53	219	30	21	3	0%	1.3	10.8%	10.7%	0.1%	1.6%	4.10	4.43	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	53	219	30	21	3	0%	1.3	10.8%	10.7%	0.1%	1.6%	4.10	4.43	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	0	53	219	30	21	3	0%	1.3	13.7%	9.6%	4.1%	1.4%	4.10	3.90	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	26	MLB	LAD	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.8%	9.8%	8.9%	2.9%	4.76	4.76	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	LAD	35	0	36	153	29	15	5	0%	1.0	19.2%	9.9%	9.3%	3.0%	4.74	4.76	-0.1
2027	27	MLB CTX	LAD	12	0	13	55	11	5	2	0%	1.1	19.2%	9.9%	9.3%	3.0%	4.74	4.76	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		13	0	13	56	11	6	2	0%	1.0	19.2%	9.9%	9.3%	3.0%	4.74	4.38	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	165	90	30	0%	1.1	19.2%	9.9%	9.3%	3.0%	4.74	4.38	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		129	26	243	1009	151	94	12	20%	1.9	15.0%	9.3%	5.7%	1.2%	3.29	3.65	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		106	21	200	829	124	77	10	20%	1.9	15.0%	9.3%	5.7%	1.2%	3.29	3.65	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Aldry Acosta (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.76	18.8%	9.8%	2.9%	—	4.76	19.2%	9.3%	36	+0.00	—	—	—
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	84
R.J. Alaniz R 2017 · 3.91 FIP	26	SU	3.91	20.7%	8.9%	2.6%	.318	3.28	23.8%	15.0%	96	-0.63	2.45	362	83
Brett McKinney R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	26	SU	4.66	18.5%	9.9%	3.4%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	183	83
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	26	SU	4.46	19.9%	9.8%	3.3%	.278	4.79	22.7%	10.3%	89	+0.33	2.64	315	82
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	82
Billy Corcoran R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	19.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.308	5.26	16.4%	8.7%	208	+1.06	4.20	277	82
Daniel Corcino R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	21.7%	11.4%	2.2%	.292	4.91	19.0%	7.9%	223	+0.98	3.84	318	82
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	81
Josh Zeid R 2013 · 4.00 FIP	26	SU	4.00	20.3%	9.3%	2.6%	.287	4.75	16.2%	4.8%	183	+0.75	4.00	313	81
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	81
Spencer Stockton R 2022 · 4.18 FIP	26	SU	4.18	20.2%	10.3%	2.7%	.276	5.45	18.9%	6.4%	63	+1.27	1.93	233	81
Layne Somsen R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	26	SU	3.74	19.5%	12.5%	1.3%	.265	4.00	19.9%	6.7%	92	+0.26	3.66	154	81
Thomas Balboni Jr. R 2023 · 3.99 FIP	23	SU	3.99	17.5%	10.9%	1.8%	.331	3.47	28.1%	14.3%	79	-0.52	2.99	122	81
Logan Taylor R 2018 · 4.79 FIP	26	SU	4.79	17.2%	12.1%	2.9%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	300	81
Jacob Bosiokovic R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	25	SU	3.84	17.2%	9.8%	1.7%	.289	4.21	24.7%	12.1%	62	+0.37	3.84	181	81
Kyle Martin R 2017 · 4.41 FIP	26	SU	4.41	18.3%	10.0%	2.9%	.304	3.22	23.0%	10.0%	51	-1.19	3.01	214	80
Jonathan Hughes R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	26	SU	4.31	17.1%	9.2%	2.7%	.283	3.54	17.1%	4.9%	50	-0.77	3.44	219	80
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	80
Jon Leicester R 2004 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	20.0%	8.6%	4.0%	.280	4.44	11.0%	2.0%	32	-0.25	3.76	113	80
Troy Neiman R 2017 · 4.03 FIP	26	SU	4.03	18.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	4.03	199	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	37	19.0%	9.9%	1.15	4.75
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Randy Flores ('10)	1.2	42	17.7%	9.3%	1.04	4.61
Chris Ray ('11)	1.4	47	19.1%	10.2%	1.12	4.10
Vic Darensbourg ('05)	1.5	50	17.0%	9.3%	1.01	4.96
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68