Gerardo Carrillo
P
Reno Aces
Age 27
RHP
6'1" / 170 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION42 act + 60 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118109vR 100
ERA4.36
FIP4.36
K%21.9%
BB%10.1%
K-BB%11.8%
ROS IP60
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 102 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 18 | ROK | DSL Dodgers 2 | 14 | 10 | 48 | 210 | 32 | 14 | 1 | 71% | 3.5 | 10.4% | 8.3% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 2.79 | 3.65 | — |
| 2017 | 18 | ROK | DSL Dodgers 2 | 14 | 10 | 48 | 210 | 32 | 14 | 1 | 71% | 3.5 | 15.2% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 0.5% | 2.79 | 2.91 | — |
| 2018 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 10 | 60 | 237 | 50 | 16 | 3 | 77% | 4.6 | 14.0% | 8.5% | 5.6% | 1.7% | 1.50 | 3.90 | — |
| 2018 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 10 | 60 | 237 | 50 | 16 | 3 | 77% | 4.6 | 21.1% | 6.8% | 14.3% | 1.3% | 1.50 | 2.88 | — |
| 2019 | 20 | A+ | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | 23 | 21 | 86 | 405 | 86 | 51 | 3 | 91% | 3.7 | 16.4% | 14.5% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 5.44 | 4.10 | — |
| 2019 | 20 | A+ | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | 23 | 21 | 86 | 405 | 86 | 51 | 3 | 91% | 3.7 | 21.2% | 12.6% | 8.6% | 0.7% | 5.44 | 3.33 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | 23 | 22 | 96 | 444 | 108 | 50 | 14 | 96% | 4.2 | 19.7% | 12.4% | 7.3% | 3.5% | 4.76 | 4.94 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | 23 | 22 | 96 | 444 | 108 | 50 | 14 | 96% | 4.2 | 24.3% | 11.3% | 13.1% | 3.2% | 4.76 | 4.30 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 21 | 1 | 23 | 115 | 28 | 13 | 2 | 5% | 1.1 | 23.7% | 15.2% | 8.6% | 2.2% | 6.94 | 4.20 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 21 | 1 | 23 | 115 | 28 | 13 | 2 | 5% | 1.1 | 24.3% | 11.3% | 13.0% | 1.7% | 6.94 | 3.49 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 14.3% | 28.6% | -14.3% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 5.51 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 14.3% | 28.6% | -14.3% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 4.81 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 42 | 0 | 49 | 210 | 56 | 18 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 21.7% | 10.0% | 11.7% | 1.3% | 3.88 | 3.23 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 42 | 0 | 49 | 210 | 56 | 18 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 26.7% | 8.6% | 18.1% | 1.0% | 3.88 | 2.44 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AAA | Reno Aces | 32 | 0 | 42 | 185 | 56 | 25 | 5 | 0% | 1.3 | 26.6% | 14.2% | 12.4% | 3.0% | 4.25 | 4.28 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | ARI | 57 | 0 | 60 | 251 | 55 | 25 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.9% | 10.1% | 11.8% | 2.6% | 4.36 | 4.36 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | ARI | 6 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.9% | 10.1% | 11.8% | 2.6% | 4.36 | 4.36 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 102 | 436 | 111 | 50 | 12 | — | — | 25.4% | 11.5% | 13.9% | 2.7% | 4.32 | 4.33 | +1.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 6 | 25 | 5 | 3 | 1 | — | — | 21.9% | 10.1% | 11.8% | 2.6% | 4.36 | 3.98 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | ARI | 55 | 0 | 58 | 244 | 53 | 25 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.9% | 10.1% | 11.8% | 2.8% | 4.41 | 4.44 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | ARI | 52 | 0 | 55 | 233 | 51 | 24 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.8% | 10.3% | 11.5% | 3.0% | 4.50 | 4.56 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | ARI | 49 | 0 | 52 | 219 | 47 | 23 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.5% | 10.5% | 11.0% | 3.2% | 4.63 | 4.73 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | ARI | 24 | 0 | 25 | 106 | 23 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.9% | 10.1% | 11.8% | 2.8% | 4.41 | 4.44 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | ARI | 31 | 0 | 33 | 139 | 30 | 14 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.8% | 10.3% | 11.5% | 3.0% | 4.50 | 4.56 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | ARI | 34 | 0 | 36 | 152 | 33 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.5% | 10.5% | 11.0% | 3.2% | 4.63 | 4.73 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 95 | 0 | 99 | 420 | 91 | 43 | 12 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.7% | 10.3% | 11.4% | 3.0% | 4.52 | 4.20 | +1.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 183 | 86 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.7% | 10.3% | 11.4% | 3.0% | 4.52 | 4.20 | +2.8 | ||
| Career | — | 170 | 64 | 407 | 1813 | 332 | 218 | 36 | 38% | 2.4 | 18.3% | 12.0% | 6.3% | 2.0% | 4.13 | 4.16 | +5.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 83 | 31 | 200 | 890 | 163 | 107 | 17 | 38% | 2.4 | 18.3% | 12.0% | 6.3% | 2.0% | 4.13 | 4.16 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Gerardo Carrillo (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.36 | 21.9% | 10.1% | 2.6% | — | 4.57 | 21.7% | 11.4% | 165 | +0.21 | — | — | — |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2027 · 4.14 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.14 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 3.3% | .348 | 3.66 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 86 | -0.48 | 2.38 | 160 | 83 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.13 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.7% | .315 | 5.25 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.12 | 4.13 | 115 | 82 |
| Derek Gordon R 2024 · 4.72 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.72 | 19.9% | 9.3% | 3.9% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.72 | 146 | 81 |
| Taylor Grover R 2025 · 4.89 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.89 | 20.0% | 10.9% | 3.8% | .320 | 4.92 | 16.2% | 8.9% | 14 | +0.03 | 3.63 | 239 | 81 |
| Grant Black R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.49 | 19.0% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .327 | 5.46 | 15.2% | 3.1% | 156 | +0.97 | 4.49 | 215 | 80 |
| Esmil Rogers R 2028 · 3.51 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.51 | 18.5% | 8.9% | 1.6% | .348 | 2.88 | 21.7% | 17.9% | 40 | -0.63 | 2.88 | 199 | 80 |
| Jake Stinnett R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.07 | 21.1% | 12.2% | 2.2% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.88 | 356 | 80 |
| Luis Mateo R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.33 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 2.4% | .309 | 5.34 | 8.6% | -4.8% | 43 | +1.01 | 3.43 | 160 | 79 |
| Edwin Quirarte R 2027 · 3.59 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.59 | 16.7% | 6.2% | 2.0% | .311 | 3.45 | 12.7% | 4.9% | 83 | -0.14 | 3.21 | 157 | 79 |
| Austin Ross R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.86 | 22.9% | 8.0% | 3.1% | .295 | 3.60 | 12.4% | 5.2% | 127 | -0.26 | 3.19 | 269 | 78 |
| Wil Jensen R 2025 · 3.41 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.41 | 22.7% | 8.4% | 2.1% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 368 | 78 |
| Bud Norris R 2029 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.90 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | .327 | 3.85 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -1.05 | 3.52 | 316 | 77 |
| Evan Gates R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.87 | 22.5% | 11.8% | 2.1% | .312 | 4.34 | 18.5% | 10.4% | 35 | +0.47 | 3.74 | 277 | 77 |
| Trevor Cahill R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.15 | 16.4% | 9.4% | 2.3% | .297 | 4.10 | 22.9% | 12.0% | 293 | -0.05 | 3.33 | 556 | 77 |
| Jordan Milbrath R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.88 | 21.5% | 9.5% | 2.5% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.26 | 386 | 77 |
| Dalier Hinojosa R 2028 · 3.56 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.56 | 20.4% | 9.8% | 1.7% | .283 | 4.38 | 18.7% | 6.1% | 24 | +0.82 | 3.56 | 104 | 77 |
| Robert Kwiatkowski R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.01 | 18.3% | 9.0% | 2.4% | .255 | 4.31 | 15.9% | 2.3% | 20 | +0.30 | 4.01 | 254 | 76 |
| Jorge Reyes R 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.25 | 15.9% | 8.5% | 4.4% | .307 | 3.44 | 14.2% | 6.2% | 129 | -1.81 | 3.32 | 227 | 76 |
| Calvin Drummond R 2025 · 3.51 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.51 | 16.9% | 11.1% | 0.8% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 112 | 76 |
| Cole Sulser R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.43 | 22.6% | 10.2% | 1.7% | .321 | 2.78 | 28.2% | 18.4% | 140 | -0.65 | 2.29 | 538 | 76 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 56 | 21.8% | 10.2% | 1.11 | 4.47 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Scott Oberg ('19) | 5 | 51 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 0.91 | 3.85 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |