Gerardo Carrillo

Gerardo Carrillo P Reno Aces

Age 27 RHP 6'1" / 170 lbs AAA peak 0.2 · 2026 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION63 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108100vR 92

ERA3.96

FIP3.96

K%23.0%

BB%10.8%

K-BB%12.2%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 68 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL4545

CMD5050

K†5055

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p8496.9

Whiff%

p7228.8%

p7025.9%

xwOBA vs

p630.299

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	18	ROK MLE	DSL Dodgers 2	14	10	48	210	32	14	1	71%	3.5	10.4%	8.3%	2.0%	0.7%	2.79	3.65	—
2017	18	ROK RAW	DSL Dodgers 2	14	10	48	210	32	14	1	71%	3.5	15.2%	6.7%	8.6%	0.5%	2.79	2.91	—
2018	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	10	60	237	50	16	3	77%	4.6	14.0%	8.5%	5.6%	1.8%	1.50	3.99	—
2018	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	10	60	237	50	16	3	77%	4.6	21.1%	6.8%	14.3%	1.3%	1.50	2.88	—
2019	20	A+ MLE	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	23	21	86	405	86	51	3	91%	3.7	16.4%	14.5%	1.9%	1.0%	5.44	4.08	—
2019	20	A+ RAW	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	23	21	86	405	86	51	3	91%	3.7	21.2%	12.6%	8.6%	0.7%	5.44	3.33	—
2021	22	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	23	22	96	444	108	50	14	96%	4.2	19.7%	12.4%	7.3%	3.6%	4.76	5.01	—
2021	22	AA RAW	Harrisburg Senators	23	22	96	444	108	50	14	96%	4.2	24.3%	11.3%	13.1%	3.2%	4.76	4.30	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	1	23	115	28	13	2	5%	1.1	23.7%	15.2%	8.6%	2.1%	6.94	4.18	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	1	23	115	28	13	2	5%	1.1	24.3%	11.3%	13.0%	1.7%	6.94	3.49	—
2023	24	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	2	0	2	7	1	2	0	0%	1.2	14.3%	28.6%	-14.3%	0.0%	0.00	5.51	—
2023	24	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	2	0	2	7	1	2	0	0%	1.2	14.3%	28.6%	-14.3%	0.0%	0.00	5.51	—
2023	24	AA RAW	Harrisburg Senators	2	0	2	7	1	2	0	0%	1.2	14.3%	28.6%	-14.3%	0.0%	0.00	4.81	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	49	210	56	18	2	0%	1.2	21.7%	10.0%	11.7%	1.2%	3.88	3.22	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	49	210	56	18	2	0%	1.2	21.7%	10.0%	11.7%	1.2%	3.88	3.22	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	0	49	210	56	18	2	0%	1.2	26.7%	8.6%	18.1%	1.0%	3.88	2.44	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			13	0	17	81	21	15	0	0%	1.3	25.9%	18.5%	7.4%	0.0%	4.15	3.27	+0.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	48	0	63	276	82	41	5	0%	1.3	26.0%	13.9%	12.0%	2.0%	4.02	3.76	—
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	48	0	63	276	82	41	5	0%	1.3	26.0%	13.9%	12.0%	2.0%	4.02	3.76	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	AAA RAW	ARI	35	0	45	195	61	26	5	0%	1.3	31.3%	13.3%	17.9%	2.6%	3.97	3.55	—
2026	27	MLB RAW	ARI	13	0	17	81	21	15	0	0%	1.3	25.9%	18.5%	7.4%	0.0%	4.15	3.26	+0.3
SO FAR	27	MLB RAW	ARI	13	0	17	81	21	15	0	0%	1.3	25.9%	18.5%	7.4%	0.0%	4.15	3.26	+0.3
ROS	27	MLB MLE	ARI	5	0	5	21	5	2	1	0%	1.0	23.0%	10.8%	12.2%	2.6%	3.96	3.96	+0.0
ROS	27	MLB CTX	ARI	5	0	5	21	5	2	1	0%	1.0	23.0%	10.8%	12.2%	2.6%	3.96	3.96	+0.0
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	ARI	—	—	68	297	87	43	6	—	—	29.2%	14.6%	14.7%	1.9%	4.02	3.78	+0.7
FULL	27	MLB A+C	ARI	—	—	22	94	87	43	6	—	—	92.1%	45.9%	46.2%	5.9%	12.16	4.37	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	ARI	55	0	58	244	55	28	6	0%	1.0	22.7%	11.6%	11.1%	2.4%	4.34	4.38	+0.1
2028	29	MLB MLE	ARI	52	0	55	233	52	27	6	0%	1.1	22.5%	11.6%	10.9%	2.6%	4.43	4.50	+0.0
2027	28	MLB CTX	ARI	52	0	55	232	53	27	6	0%	1.1	22.7%	11.6%	11.1%	2.4%	4.34	4.38	+0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	ARI	50	0	52	220	49	26	6	0%	1.0	22.5%	11.6%	10.9%	2.6%	4.43	4.50	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		120	0	130	555	128	70	12	0%	1.1	23.1%	12.6%	10.5%	2.2%	4.34	3.94	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		185	0	200	857	198	108	19	0%	1.1	23.1%	12.6%	10.5%	2.2%	4.34	3.94	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		186	64	428	1904	354	230	36	34%	2.3	18.6%	12.1%	6.5%	1.9%	4.10	4.11	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		87	30	200	890	166	108	17	34%	2.3	18.6%	12.1%	6.5%	1.9%	4.10	4.11	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Gerardo Carrillo (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.36	21.9%	10.1%	2.6%	—	4.44	22.6%	11.0%	113	+0.08	—	—	—
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.37	14.7%	3.6%	156	+0.91	4.46	215	80
Jake Stinnett R 2019 · 4.23 FIP	27	SW	4.23	21.1%	12.2%	2.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	356	78
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.07	26.7%	16.7%	73	-0.97	2.28	118	77
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	76
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	76
Blake Smith R 2015 · 3.17 FIP	27	SU	3.17	23.3%	10.5%	1.3%	.290	3.59	22.4%	13.8%	71	+0.42	3.17	124	76
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	76
Grant Sides R 2016 · 3.83 FIP	27	SU	3.83	22.4%	11.9%	2.0%	.247	3.31	21.7%	11.9%	47	-0.52	3.31	159	76
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	76
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	75
Jacob Bosiokovic R 2021 · 3.93 FIP	27	SU	3.93	26.4%	14.3%	2.3%	.274	4.86	21.0%	9.6%	69	+0.93	3.84	181	75
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	75
Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	4.36	19.2%	10.6%	193	+0.12	3.92	257	75
Pierce Johnson R 2018 · 3.92 FIP	27	SU	3.92	22.4%	11.3%	2.3%	.269	3.00	32.2%	22.0%	79	-0.92	2.75	593	74
Cody Satterwhite R 2015 · 3.71 FIP	28	SU	3.71	20.2%	9.8%	1.9%	.333	4.04	17.7%	10.2%	75	+0.33	3.69	147	74
Austin Adams R 2015 · 3.51 FIP	28	SU	3.51	18.6%	9.5%	1.4%	.331	3.40	21.1%	15.0%	56	-0.11	3.40	162	74
Kyle Schepel R 2017 · 3.54 FIP	26	SU	3.54	21.6%	11.6%	1.5%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.54	156	74
Lucas Erceg R 2022 · 4.48 FIP	27	SU	4.48	20.8%	14.0%	2.5%	.339	2.96	24.5%	15.8%	193	-1.52	2.10	346	74
Luis García R 2015 · 3.23 FIP	28	SU	3.23	20.7%	9.5%	1.2%	.327	3.22	21.6%	12.8%	187	-0.01	2.33	617	74
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	74

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	56	22.4%	11.1%	1.00	4.38
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Cory Gearrin ('19)	1.1	57	21.5%	9.8%	0.79	3.42
Archie Bradley ('21)	2.2	74	23.2%	9.8%	0.85	3.93
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68