Gerardo Carrillo

Gerardo Carrillo P Reno Aces

+0.3 WAR

Age 27 RHP 6'1" / 170 lbs AAA peak 0.3 · 2026

ERA4.22

FIP4.22

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%22.8%

BB%9.5%

K-BB%13.2%

IP39

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.3peak

2026

STUF5050

CTRL4545

CMD5050

K†5555

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2017	18	ROK	DSL Dodgers 2	14	10	48	210	32	14	1	10.4%	8.3%	0.7%	2.79	3.65	+0.7
2018	19	A	Great Lakes Loons	13	10	60	237	50	16	3	14.0%	8.5%	1.7%	1.50	3.94	+0.7
2019	20	A+	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	23	21	86	405	86	51	3	16.4%	14.5%	1.0%	5.44	4.08	+1.1
2021	22	AA	Harrisburg Senators	23	22	96	444	108	50	14	19.7%	12.4%	3.7%	4.76	5.02	+0.3
2022	23	AA	Harrisburg Senators	21	1	23	115	28	13	2	23.7%	15.2%	2.1%	6.94	4.18	+0.2
2023	24	AA	Harrisburg Senators	2	0	2	7	1	2	0	—	—	—	0.00	—	—
2025	26	AAA	Round Rock Express	42	0	49	210	56	18	2	21.7%	10.0%	1.3%	3.88	3.22	+1.0
▸ 2026 Season
2026	27	AAA	Reno Aces	5	0	10	41	15	4	1	—	—	—	3.60	—	—
ROS	27	MLB	ARI	39	—	39	166	38	16	4	22.8%	9.8%	2.6%	4.25	4.25	+0.3
2026 Total	27	MLB	ARI	—	—	49	207	53	20	5	25.5%	9.8%	2.6%	4.12	3.39	+0.9
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	28	MLB	ARI	39	—	39	164	37	16	4	22.8%	9.8%	2.7%	4.27	4.28	+0.3
2028	29	MLB	ARI	38	—	38	160	36	16	4	22.7%	9.8%	2.8%	4.31	4.33	+0.3
2029	30	MLB	ARI	37	—	37	155	35	15	4	22.5%	9.8%	2.8%	4.36	4.39	+0.2
2030	31	MLB	ARI	36	—	36	150	33	15	4	22.3%	10.0%	2.9%	4.42	4.46	+0.2
2031	32	MLB	ARI	34	—	34	144	32	15	4	22.0%	10.1%	3.0%	4.50	4.55	+0.2
2032	33	MLB	ARI	33	—	33	138	30	14	4	21.7%	10.3%	3.1%	4.59	4.65	+0.1
2033	34	MLB	ARI	31	—	31	131	28	14	4	21.4%	10.5%	3.2%	4.69	4.76	+0.1
2034	35	MLB	ARI	29	—	29	123	26	13	4	21.0%	10.7%	3.3%	4.80	4.88	+0.0
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			143	64	375	1669	298	196	32	17.8%	11.7%	1.9%	4.10	4.12	+5.0
/ 200 IP	—			76	34	200	890	159	105	17	17.8%	11.7%	1.9%	4.10	4.12	+2.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Gerardo Carrillo (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.25	22.8%	9.8%	2.6%	—	4.33	22.7%	12.9%	114	+0.08	—	—	—
Matt Ramsey R 2026 · 3.21 FIP	27	SU	3.21	24.2%	9.6%	1.7%	.330	3.20	23.6%	14.6%	81	-0.01	2.42	125	90
Taylor Williams R 2026 · 3.48 FIP	27	SW	3.48	24.2%	8.9%	2.4%	.309	4.33	22.5%	12.7%	108	+0.85	2.36	309	84
Jason Adam R 2026 · 3.37 FIP	27	SU	3.37	24.2%	9.0%	2.1%	.237	2.63	33.1%	24.9%	88	-0.74	2.40	362	84
Blake Smith R 2026 · 3.18 FIP	27	SW	3.18	23.3%	10.5%	1.3%	.290	3.63	22.4%	13.8%	71	+0.45	3.18	124	84
Michael Dimock R 2026 · 4.12 FIP	27	SU	4.12	18.9%	7.8%	3.0%	.339	3.39	23.5%	12.8%	29	-0.73	3.11	166	84
Pedro Garcia R 2026 · 3.29 FIP	27	SU	3.29	22.9%	9.1%	1.8%	.276	6.26	27.5%	9.3%	50	+2.97	2.80	155	84
Joe Colón J R 2026 · 4.30 FIP	27	SU	4.30	20.4%	12.1%	2.5%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.24	113	83
Jaye Chapman R 2027 · 3.34 FIP	28	SW	3.34	21.6%	8.5%	1.8%	.276	4.07	20.3%	11.3%	85	+0.73	3.25	150	83
Tyler Sturdevant R 2028 · 4.33 FIP	29	SU	4.33	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.99	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.34	3.47	149	83
Austin Ross R 2026 · 3.80 FIP	27	SW	3.80	22.9%	8.0%	3.0%	.295	3.70	12.4%	5.2%	127	-0.10	3.17	269	82
Trevin Michael R 2026 · 3.82 FIP	27	SW	3.82	23.0%	9.1%	2.8%	.230	—	—	—	—	—	2.68	149	82
Kaleb Fleck R 2026 · 3.60 FIP	27	SU	3.60	21.6%	9.7%	2.0%	.340	3.98	21.8%	13.6%	94	+0.38	2.68	177	82
Juan Ramon Noriega R 2025 · 4.46 FIP	26	SU	4.46	21.3%	8.3%	3.8%	.243	3.46	24.8%	17.1%	57	-1.00	3.46	198	82
Cole Sulser R 2026 · 3.54 FIP	27	SW	3.54	22.6%	10.2%	1.9%	.321	2.87	28.2%	18.4%	140	-0.67	2.39	509	82
Antonio Guzman R 2026 · 3.60 FIP	27	SU	3.60	18.8%	11.2%	1.2%	.328	3.47	20.6%	11.3%	170	-0.13	3.16	254	82
Rob Scahill R 2027 · 3.75 FIP	28	SU	3.75	16.9%	7.7%	2.0%	.288	3.35	17.9%	10.1%	171	-0.40	3.08	201	81
Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.57 FIP	27	SU	4.57	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.08	3.70	187	81
Seth Simmons R 2026 · 3.07 FIP	27	SW	3.07	23.8%	9.7%	1.4%	.277	4.88	16.6%	7.6%	175	+1.81	3.07	251	81
Cody Satterwhite R 2027 · 3.72 FIP	28	SW	3.72	20.2%	9.8%	2.0%	.333	4.05	17.7%	10.2%	75	+0.33	3.70	147	81
Collin Baumgartner R 2025 · 3.76 FIP	26	SW	3.76	23.9%	12.3%	2.0%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	2.99	117	81

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.