Juan Mejia
P
Hickory Crawdads
Age 27
LHP
5'11" / 160 lbs
A+
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 36 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 100109vR 119
ERA4.38
FIP4.38
K%22.8%
BB%9.1%
K-BB%13.7%
ROS IP36
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 36 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 18 | ROK | DSL Rangers 2 | 12 | 12 | 67 | 265 | 48 | 12 | 2 | 100% | 5.6 | 12.3% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 1.1% | 2.42 | 3.36 | — |
| 2017 | 18 | ROK | DSL Rangers 2 | 12 | 12 | 67 | 265 | 48 | 12 | 2 | 100% | 5.6 | 18.1% | 4.5% | 13.6% | 0.8% | 2.42 | 2.59 | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | DSL Rangers 1 | 12 | 12 | 71 | 285 | 48 | 8 | 3 | 100% | 5.9 | 11.5% | 3.5% | 7.9% | 1.5% | 2.15 | 3.39 | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | DSL Rangers 1 | 12 | 12 | 71 | 285 | 48 | 8 | 3 | 100% | 5.9 | 16.8% | 2.8% | 14.0% | 1.1% | 2.15 | 2.64 | — |
| 2019 | 20 | ROK | AZL Rangers | 4 | 0 | 7 | 35 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1.8 | 34.3% | 0.0% | 34.3% | 2.9% | 4.91 | 1.77 | — |
| 2019 | 20 | ROK | AZL Rangers | 4 | 0 | 7 | 35 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1.8 | 34.3% | 0.0% | 34.3% | 2.9% | 4.91 | 1.60 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 11 | 0 | 22 | 86 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 0% | 2.0 | 15.4% | 9.2% | 6.2% | 3.3% | 2.08 | 4.77 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 11 | 0 | 22 | 86 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 0% | 2.0 | 30.2% | 8.1% | 22.1% | 1.2% | 2.08 | 2.27 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 26 | 1 | 40 | 180 | 37 | 17 | 7 | 4% | 1.5 | 16.5% | 11.7% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.75 | 6.38 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 26 | 1 | 40 | 180 | 37 | 17 | 7 | 4% | 1.5 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 11.1% | 3.9% | 6.75 | 4.80 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 4 levels | 25 | 5 | 62 | 271 | 52 | 21 | 9 | 20% | 2.5 | 16.2% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 4.2% | 4.94 | 5.10 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 4 levels | 25 | 5 | 62 | 271 | 52 | 21 | 9 | 20% | 2.5 | 19.2% | 7.7% | 11.4% | 3.3% | 4.94 | 4.33 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | TEX | 35 | 0 | 36 | 154 | 35 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.8% | 9.1% | 13.7% | 3.0% | 4.38 | 4.38 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | TEX | 34 | 0 | 35 | 149 | 34 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.7% | 9.3% | 13.5% | 3.1% | 4.43 | 4.46 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | TEX | 12 | 0 | 13 | 55 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.7% | 9.3% | 13.5% | 3.1% | 4.43 | 4.46 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 12 | 0 | 13 | 55 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.7% | 9.3% | 13.5% | 3.1% | 4.43 | 4.08 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 186 | 77 | 31 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.7% | 9.3% | 13.5% | 3.1% | 4.43 | 4.08 | +3.1 | ||
| Career | — | 90 | 30 | 269 | 1122 | 164 | 76 | 33 | 33% | 3.0 | 14.6% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 2.9% | 3.61 | 4.33 | +3.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 67 | 22 | 200 | 834 | 122 | 57 | 24 | 33% | 3.0 | 14.6% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 2.9% | 3.61 | 4.33 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Juan Mejia (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.38 | 22.8% | 9.1% | 3.0% | — | 4.46 | 22.7% | 13.5% | 35 | +0.08 | — | — | — |
| Hector Hernandez L 2027 · 3.57 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.57 | 20.2% | 9.0% | 1.9% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 121 | 82 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.30 | 22.8% | 12.2% | 1.1% | .292 | 3.80 | 20.2% | 11.3% | 127 | +0.50 | 2.68 | 175 | 79 |
| Shinnosuke Ogasawara L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.83 | 16.6% | 9.0% | 3.6% | .308 | 3.98 | 22.0% | 15.2% | 59 | -0.85 | 3.98 | 122 | 73 |
| Aaron Rozek L 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.53 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 3.3% | .311 | 4.31 | 17.2% | 9.9% | 300 | -0.22 | 3.88 | 523 | 70 |
| Edgar Olmos L 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.56 | 18.9% | 9.7% | 1.5% | .252 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.19 | 203 | 70 |
| Garrett Gainey L 2025 · 5.52 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.52 | 17.8% | 8.2% | 5.2% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 116 | 69 |
| Greg Nappo L 2026 · 5.29 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.29 | 17.2% | 10.3% | 4.3% | .285 | 6.48 | 12.3% | -0.3% | 11 | +1.19 | 3.40 | 144 | 69 |
| Andy Otero L 2028 · 4.08 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.08 | 24.7% | 6.2% | 4.2% | .298 | 4.38 | 14.5% | 5.6% | 68 | +0.30 | 2.85 | 200 | 68 |
| Nico Tellache L 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.89 | 16.3% | 7.3% | 2.3% | .373 | 4.65 | 13.4% | 4.8% | 78 | +0.76 | 3.89 | 160 | 68 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2027 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 3.41 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 82 | -0.21 | 3.41 | 153 | 68 |
| Stu Flesland III L 2024 · 4.31 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.31 | 18.7% | 10.5% | 2.7% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.44 | 211 | 67 |
| Juan Grullon L 2025 · 4.86 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.86 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 3.7% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.86 | 134 | 67 |
| Ryan Magdic L 2025 · 3.18 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.18 | 21.5% | 4.8% | 2.4% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.18 | 150 | 67 |
| Chris Nunn L 2026 · 3.26 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.26 | 23.0% | 10.9% | 1.3% | .367 | 4.30 | 23.9% | 9.2% | 95 | +1.04 | 3.26 | 180 | 67 |
| David Huff L 2029 · 3.63 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.63 | 17.1% | 3.8% | 2.7% | .271 | 4.00 | 19.5% | 14.6% | 52 | +0.37 | 3.63 | 158 | 66 |
| Rito Lugo L 2025 · 3.97 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.97 | 18.3% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 176 | 66 |
| Reid Love L 2025 · 3.89 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.89 | 19.6% | 7.2% | 2.8% | .373 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 280 | 66 |
| Carson Teel L 2025 · 4.22 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.22 | 17.7% | 7.1% | 3.1% | .355 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.44 | 248 | 66 |
| Steven Moyers L 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.67 | 18.7% | 7.4% | 2.2% | .273 | 4.94 | 14.7% | 6.6% | 72 | +1.27 | 3.67 | 464 | 66 |
| Tyler Alexander L 2026 · 5.27 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.27 | 21.7% | 9.8% | 5.0% | .289 | 5.37 | 15.7% | 5.0% | 26 | +0.10 | 5.27 | 128 | 66 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 36 | 22.8% | 9.2% | 1.20 | 4.40 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |