Juan Mejia — OGILVIE

Juan Mejia P Hickory Crawdads

Age 27 LHP 5'11" / 160 lbs A+

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 3 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 102111vR 119

ERA4.50

FIP4.50

K%20.8%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%12.1%

ROS IP3

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 3 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	18	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers 2	12	12	67	265	48	12	2	100%	5.6	12.3%	5.7%	6.7%	1.1%	2.42	3.36	—
2017	18	ROK RAW	DSL Rangers 2	12	12	67	265	48	12	2	100%	5.6	18.1%	4.5%	13.6%	0.8%	2.42	2.59	—
2018	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers 1	12	12	71	285	48	8	3	100%	5.9	11.5%	3.5%	7.9%	1.5%	2.15	3.39	—
2018	19	ROK RAW	DSL Rangers 1	12	12	71	285	48	8	3	100%	5.9	16.8%	2.8%	14.0%	1.1%	2.15	2.64	—
2019	20	ROK MLE	AZL Rangers	4	0	7	35	12	0	1	0%	1.8	34.3%	0.0%	34.3%	2.9%	4.91	1.77	—
2019	20	ROK RAW	AZL Rangers	4	0	7	35	12	0	1	0%	1.8	34.3%	0.0%	34.3%	2.9%	4.91	1.60	—
2021	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	11	0	22	86	26	7	1	0%	2.0	15.4%	9.2%	6.2%	2.8%	2.08	4.52	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	11	0	22	86	26	7	1	0%	2.0	30.2%	8.1%	22.1%	1.2%	2.08	2.27	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	1	40	180	37	17	7	4%	1.5	16.5%	11.7%	4.8%	5.6%	6.75	6.29	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	1	40	180	37	17	7	4%	1.5	20.6%	9.4%	11.1%	3.9%	6.75	4.80	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	25	5	62	271	52	21	9	20%	2.5	16.2%	8.2%	8.1%	4.1%	4.94	4.99	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	25	5	62	271	52	21	9	20%	2.5	16.2%	8.2%	8.1%	4.1%	4.94	4.99	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	4 levels	25	5	62	271	52	21	9	20%	2.5	19.2%	7.7%	11.4%	3.3%	4.94	4.33	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	27	MLB	TEX	3	0	3	13	3	1	0	0%	1.0	20.8%	8.8%	12.1%	3.0%	4.50	4.50	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	TEX	34	0	35	149	31	13	5	0%	1.0	21.0%	8.9%	12.0%	3.1%	4.53	4.57	-0.0
2027	28	MLB CTX	TEX	12	0	13	55	12	5	2	0%	1.1	21.0%	8.9%	12.0%	3.1%	4.53	4.57	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		12	0	13	55	11	5	2	0%	1.1	21.0%	8.9%	12.0%	3.1%	4.53	4.19	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	170	77	31	0%	1.1	21.0%	8.9%	12.0%	3.1%	4.53	4.19	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		90	30	269	1122	164	76	32	33%	3.0	14.6%	6.8%	7.9%	2.8%	3.61	4.27	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		67	22	200	834	122	57	24	33%	3.0	14.6%	6.8%	7.9%	2.8%	3.61	4.27	-0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Juan Mejia (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.50	20.8%	8.8%	3.0%	—	4.57	21.0%	12.0%	35	+0.07	—	—	—
Hector Hernandez L 2019 · 3.39 FIP	28	SW	3.39	20.2%	9.0%	1.5%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.17	121	82
Jordan Carr L 2023 · 3.49 FIP	26	SW	3.49	17.2%	8.5%	1.4%	.270	5.16	12.7%	2.3%	137	+1.67	3.49	269	77
Greg Nappo L 2016 · 5.09 FIP	27	SU	5.09	17.2%	10.3%	3.9%	.285	6.26	12.3%	-0.3%	11	+1.17	3.37	144	72
Edgar Olmos L 2017 · 3.64 FIP	27	SW	3.64	18.9%	9.7%	1.7%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	203	72
Aaron Rozek L 2023 · 4.87 FIP	27	SP-	4.87	17.4%	8.8%	3.9%	.311	4.43	16.3%	8.9%	346	-0.44	3.70	569	72
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	70
Matt Tracy L 2016 · 3.89 FIP	27	SW	3.89	13.8%	8.3%	1.7%	.328	4.22	15.3%	5.5%	129	+0.33	3.24	298	70
Brent Headrick L 2023 · 4.54 FIP	25	SW	4.54	22.6%	7.6%	4.3%	.299	2.87	28.1%	21.0%	138	-1.67	2.21	409	69
Ryan Verdugo L 2015 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	19.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.281	3.36	22.7%	17.3%	82	-0.25	3.36	153	69
Juan Grullon L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	26	SU	4.64	19.8%	10.9%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	134	69
David Huff L 2015 · 3.40 FIP	30	SW	3.40	17.1%	3.8%	2.3%	.271	4.06	19.5%	14.6%	52	+0.66	3.40	158	68
Chris Reed L 2016 · 4.67 FIP	26	SW	4.67	16.4%	9.8%	3.1%	.238	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	137	68
Rito Lugo L 2022 · 4.04 FIP	26	SW	4.04	18.3%	7.3%	2.8%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	2.30	176	68
Carson Teel L 2022 · 4.26 FIP	26	SU	4.26	17.7%	7.1%	3.2%	.355	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	248	68
Andy Otero L 2021 · 3.89 FIP	29	SP-	3.89	24.7%	6.2%	3.8%	.298	4.36	14.5%	5.6%	68	+0.47	2.86	200	67
Reid Love L 2018 · 3.98 FIP	26	SW	3.98	19.6%	7.2%	3.0%	.373	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	280	67
Brendan Nail L 2023 · 4.39 FIP	27	SU	4.39	18.9%	10.5%	2.8%	.262	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	165	67
Garrett Irvin L 2023 · 4.42 FIP	24	SU	4.42	23.2%	11.6%	3.3%	.283	4.32	17.7%	2.9%	39	-0.10	4.32	110	67
Austin Hamilton L 2019 · 4.02 FIP	25	SW	4.02	17.3%	7.9%	2.5%	.374	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	135	67
Steven Moyers L 2021 · 3.52 FIP	27	SW	3.52	18.7%	7.4%	1.9%	.273	5.24	14.7%	6.6%	72	+1.72	3.52	464	67

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	36	20.9%	8.9%	1.20	4.51
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86