Christian Mejias
P
Biloxi Shuckers
Age 27
RHP
6'0" / 160 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.9 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 84 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122113vR 104
ERA4.55
FIP4.55
K%22.2%
BB%9.7%
K-BB%12.5%
ROS IP85
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 84 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 17 | ROK | DSL Astros Orange | 2 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.5 | 14.3% | 21.4% | -7.1% | 7.1% | 3.00 | 8.53 | — |
| 2016 | 17 | ROK | DSL Astros Orange | 2 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.5 | 14.3% | 21.4% | -7.1% | 7.1% | 3.00 | 9.10 | — |
| 2017 | 18 | ROK | DSL Astros Orange | 14 | 7 | 52 | 217 | 40 | 24 | 1 | 50% | 3.7 | 12.5% | 13.8% | -1.3% | 0.6% | 4.01 | 4.15 | — |
| 2017 | 18 | ROK | DSL Astros Orange | 14 | 7 | 52 | 217 | 40 | 24 | 1 | 50% | 3.7 | 18.4% | 11.1% | 7.4% | 0.5% | 4.01 | 3.20 | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | GCL Astros | 15 | 4 | 36 | 167 | 41 | 20 | 0 | 27% | 2.4 | 16.7% | 15.0% | 1.7% | 0.0% | 3.96 | 3.59 | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | GCL Astros | 15 | 4 | 36 | 167 | 41 | 20 | 0 | 27% | 2.4 | 24.6% | 12.0% | 12.6% | 0.0% | 3.96 | 2.49 | — |
| 2019 | 20 | ROK | GCL Astros | 2 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 22.2% | 11.1% | 11.1% | 0.0% | 3.38 | 2.63 | — |
| 2019 | 20 | ROK | GCL Astros | 2 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 22.2% | 11.1% | 11.1% | 0.0% | 3.38 | 2.73 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | 4 | 3 | 12 | 59 | 21 | 5 | 1 | 75% | 3.0 | 26.3% | 10.0% | 16.3% | 1.6% | 7.50 | 3.04 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | 4 | 3 | 12 | 59 | 21 | 5 | 1 | 75% | 3.0 | 35.6% | 8.5% | 27.1% | 1.7% | 7.50 | 1.93 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 9 | 74 | 320 | 85 | 33 | 9 | 45% | 3.7 | 20.0% | 12.0% | 8.0% | 3.8% | 4.72 | 5.04 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 9 | 74 | 320 | 85 | 33 | 9 | 45% | 3.7 | 26.6% | 10.3% | 16.2% | 2.8% | 4.72 | 3.72 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | 27 | 24 | 121 | 552 | 123 | 58 | 21 | 89% | 4.5 | 18.0% | 11.6% | 6.5% | 4.1% | 6.90 | 5.30 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | 27 | 24 | 121 | 552 | 123 | 58 | 21 | 89% | 4.5 | 22.3% | 10.5% | 11.8% | 3.8% | 6.90 | 4.76 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | MIL | 13 | 13 | 85 | 358 | 80 | 35 | 11 | 100% | 6.5 | 22.2% | 9.7% | 12.5% | 3.1% | 4.55 | 4.55 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | MIL | 13 | 13 | 82 | 348 | 77 | 34 | 11 | 100% | 6.3 | 22.1% | 9.7% | 12.4% | 3.2% | 4.57 | 4.60 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | MIL | 12 | 12 | 79 | 332 | 79 | 30 | 11 | 100% | 6.6 | 23.8% | 9.0% | 14.9% | 3.3% | 4.48 | 4.44 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | MIL | 12 | 12 | 74 | 312 | 73 | 29 | 11 | 100% | 6.2 | 23.5% | 9.3% | 14.2% | 3.5% | 4.55 | 4.61 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | MIL | 11 | 11 | 69 | 291 | 67 | 28 | 11 | 100% | 6.3 | 23.1% | 9.6% | 13.5% | 3.7% | 4.70 | 4.80 | -0.0 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | MIL | 10 | 10 | 64 | 269 | 61 | 27 | 11 | 100% | 6.4 | 22.6% | 10.0% | 12.6% | 4.0% | 4.90 | 5.03 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | MIL | 5 | 5 | 31 | 131 | 29 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 6.2 | 22.1% | 9.7% | 12.4% | 3.1% | 4.53 | 4.56 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | MIL | 7 | 7 | 44 | 186 | 44 | 17 | 6 | 100% | 6.3 | 23.8% | 9.0% | 14.9% | 3.3% | 4.44 | 4.40 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | MIL | 8 | 8 | 50 | 211 | 50 | 20 | 7 | 100% | 6.2 | 23.5% | 9.3% | 14.2% | 3.5% | 4.51 | 4.57 | -0.0 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | MIL | 8 | 8 | 53 | 224 | 52 | 22 | 8 | 100% | 6.6 | 23.1% | 9.6% | 13.5% | 3.7% | 4.66 | 4.76 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | MIL | 8 | 8 | 53 | 224 | 51 | 22 | 9 | 100% | 6.6 | 22.6% | 10.0% | 12.6% | 3.9% | 4.86 | 4.99 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 36 | 36 | 230 | 973 | 225 | 93 | 34 | 100% | 6.4 | 23.1% | 9.5% | 13.6% | 3.5% | 4.61 | 4.29 | +3.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 31 | 31 | 200 | 844 | 195 | 81 | 30 | 100% | 6.4 | 23.1% | 9.5% | 13.6% | 3.5% | 4.61 | 4.29 | +2.6 | ||
| Career | — | 84 | 47 | 301 | 1338 | 238 | 167 | 38 | 56% | 3.6 | 17.8% | 12.5% | 5.3% | 2.9% | 5.47 | 4.75 | +2.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 56 | 31 | 200 | 888 | 158 | 111 | 25 | 56% | 3.6 | 17.8% | 12.5% | 5.3% | 2.9% | 5.47 | 4.75 | +1.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Christian Mejias (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.55 | 22.2% | 9.7% | 3.1% | — | 4.55 | 23.1% | 13.8% | 235 | -0.00 | — | — | — |
| Lisalverto Bonilla R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.60 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .304 | 4.88 | 15.8% | 3.2% | 11 | +0.28 | 3.25 | 221 | 80 |
| Dawson Netz R 2024 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.42 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 3.5% | .225 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 102 | 79 |
| J.P. France R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.64 | 24.9% | 10.9% | 4.1% | .301 | 4.41 | 18.7% | 8.6% | 205 | -0.23 | 4.11 | 563 | 78 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.16 | 16.1% | 8.3% | 2.5% | .309 | 3.28 | 24.1% | 13.4% | 34 | -0.88 | 3.28 | 252 | 77 |
| Hector Noesí R 2027 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 77 |
| Raynel Espinal R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.76 | 22.4% | 7.1% | 3.0% | .313 | 3.72 | 22.3% | 12.4% | 224 | -0.04 | 2.53 | 507 | 76 |
| Preston Johnson R 2025 · 3.47 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.47 | 23.4% | 9.5% | 2.1% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 146 | 75 |
| Kolton Mahoney R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.59 | 19.4% | 8.8% | 1.8% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.44 | 302 | 75 |
| Jacob Turner R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.69 | 14.9% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 340 | 75 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.13 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.7% | .315 | 5.25 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.12 | 4.13 | 115 | 75 |
| Patrick Johnson R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.52 | 17.3% | 6.9% | 1.8% | .286 | 4.03 | 15.7% | 6.4% | 120 | +0.51 | 3.52 | 248 | 75 |
| Mitch Atkins R 2029 · 3.37 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.37 | 21.4% | 8.2% | 1.9% | .341 | 4.49 | 14.3% | 6.2% | 78 | +1.12 | 3.37 | 205 | 75 |
| Sam Lewis R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.43 | 21.0% | 10.8% | 1.3% | .246 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.10 | 224 | 74 |
| Jonathan Pintaro R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.11 | 24.4% | 13.2% | 2.5% | .302 | 3.12 | 26.0% | 15.4% | 35 | -0.99 | 3.12 | 187 | 72 |
| Rafael Montero R 2025 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.85 | 22.0% | 11.2% | 2.2% | .339 | 3.46 | 28.7% | 22.8% | 47 | -0.39 | 2.38 | 663 | 72 |
| Mike Wright Jr. R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.00 | 19.5% | 7.4% | 2.9% | .298 | 3.98 | 19.5% | 11.4% | 172 | -0.02 | 3.73 | 725 | 72 |
| Chase Whitley R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.04 | 19.5% | 7.0% | 3.1% | .217 | 3.24 | 18.0% | 11.8% | 81 | -0.80 | 3.11 | 159 | 72 |
| André Rienzo R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.24 | 15.7% | 11.1% | 1.9% | .264 | 4.00 | 19.8% | 5.1% | 74 | -0.24 | 3.58 | 200 | 72 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.30 | 19.0% | 12.0% | 2.3% | .285 | 5.87 | 16.1% | 5.4% | 99 | +1.57 | 3.92 | 233 | 72 |
| Noah Davis R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.87 | 18.9% | 9.5% | 2.1% | .368 | 4.57 | 19.3% | 8.1% | 148 | +0.70 | 3.64 | 560 | 72 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 75 | 22.9% | 9.5% | 1.34 | 4.61 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Austin Voth ('24) | 6 | 58 | 22.2% | 8.2% | 1.50 | 4.63 |
| Robert Stephenson ('23) | 6 | 57 | 26.2% | 9.9% | 1.39 | 4.33 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Trevor Cahill ('21) | 7 | 67 | 21.3% | 10.1% | 1.29 | 4.66 |