Christian Mejias

Christian Mejias P Biloxi Shuckers

Age 27 RHP 6'0" / 160 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.6 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 7 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 109

ERA4.87

FIP4.87

K%20.1%

BB%10.8%

K-BB%9.3%

ROS IP7

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 7 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$0M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	17	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	2	0	3	14	2	3	1	0%	1.5	14.3%	21.4%	-7.1%	7.1%	3.00	8.53	—
2016	17	ROK RAW	DSL Astros Orange	2	0	3	14	2	3	1	0%	1.5	14.3%	21.4%	-7.1%	7.1%	3.00	9.10	—
2017	18	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	14	7	52	217	40	24	1	50%	3.7	12.5%	13.8%	-1.3%	0.6%	4.01	4.15	—
2017	18	ROK RAW	DSL Astros Orange	14	7	52	217	40	24	1	50%	3.7	18.4%	11.1%	7.4%	0.5%	4.01	3.20	—
2018	19	ROK MLE	GCL Astros	15	4	36	167	41	20	0	27%	2.4	16.7%	15.0%	1.7%	0.0%	3.96	3.59	—
2018	19	ROK RAW	GCL Astros	15	4	36	167	41	20	0	27%	2.4	24.6%	12.0%	12.6%	0.0%	3.96	2.49	—
2019	20	ROK MLE	GCL Astros	2	0	3	9	2	1	0	0%	1.3	22.2%	11.1%	11.1%	0.0%	3.38	2.63	—
2019	20	ROK RAW	GCL Astros	2	0	3	9	2	1	0	0%	1.3	22.2%	11.1%	11.1%	0.0%	3.38	2.73	—
2021	22	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	4	3	12	59	21	5	1	75%	3.0	26.3%	10.0%	16.3%	1.9%	7.50	3.17	—
2021	22	A RAW	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	4	3	12	59	21	5	1	75%	3.0	35.6%	8.5%	27.1%	1.7%	7.50	1.93	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	9	74	320	85	33	9	45%	3.7	20.0%	12.0%	8.0%	3.7%	4.72	4.96	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	9	74	320	85	33	9	45%	3.7	26.6%	10.3%	16.2%	2.8%	4.72	3.72	—
2023	24	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	27	24	121	552	123	58	21	89%	4.5	18.0%	11.6%	6.5%	4.3%	6.90	5.41	—
2023	24	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	27	24	121	552	123	58	21	89%	4.5	18.0%	11.6%	6.5%	4.3%	6.90	5.41	—
2023	24	AA RAW	Biloxi Shuckers	27	24	121	552	123	58	21	89%	4.5	22.3%	10.5%	11.8%	3.8%	6.90	4.76	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	27	MLB	MIL	1	1	7	30	6	3	1	100%	7.0	20.1%	10.8%	9.3%	3.1%	4.87	4.87	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	MIL	13	13	82	348	70	37	11	100%	6.3	20.1%	10.6%	9.5%	3.2%	4.86	4.89	+0.0
2028	29	MLB MLE	MIL	12	12	79	332	73	33	11	100%	6.6	22.0%	9.8%	12.2%	3.4%	4.75	4.71	+0.2
2029	30	MLB MLE	MIL	12	12	74	312	68	31	11	100%	6.2	21.8%	10.1%	11.7%	3.5%	4.81	4.86	+0.0
2027	28	MLB CTX	MIL	5	5	31	131	26	14	4	100%	6.2	20.1%	10.6%	9.5%	3.4%	4.95	4.98	+0.0
2028	29	MLB CTX	MIL	7	7	44	186	41	18	7	100%	6.3	22.0%	9.8%	12.2%	3.5%	4.84	4.80	+0.1
2029	30	MLB CTX	MIL	8	8	50	211	46	21	8	100%	6.2	21.8%	10.1%	11.7%	3.7%	4.91	4.96	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		20	20	125	528	113	53	19	100%	6.3	21.4%	10.1%	11.3%	3.6%	4.89	4.53	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		31	31	200	844	181	85	30	100%	6.4	21.4%	10.1%	11.3%	3.6%	4.89	4.53	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		84	47	301	1338	238	167	39	56%	3.6	17.8%	12.5%	5.3%	2.9%	5.47	4.79	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		56	31	200	888	158	111	26	56%	3.6	17.8%	12.5%	5.3%	2.9%	5.47	4.79	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Christian Mejias (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.87	20.1%	10.8%	3.1%	—	4.82	21.3%	11.1%	235	-0.05	—	—	—
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	84
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2017 · 4.61 FIP	27	SW	4.61	18.2%	10.5%	3.1%	.304	4.70	15.8%	3.2%	11	+0.09	3.22	221	84
Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	20.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.309	3.50	21.1%	13.0%	142	-0.21	1.87	251	81
Aaron Northcraft R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	26	SW	4.19	16.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.309	3.32	24.1%	13.4%	34	-0.87	3.32	252	81
Jacob Turner R 2018 · 4.48 FIP	27	SP-	4.48	14.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	340	80
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	78
André Rienzo R 2015 · 4.22 FIP	27	SW	4.22	15.7%	11.1%	1.9%	.264	4.02	19.8%	5.1%	74	-0.20	3.53	200	78
Paxton Schultz R 2023 · 4.90 FIP	25	SP-	4.90	19.1%	11.9%	3.5%	.319	4.05	22.7%	14.3%	222	-0.85	3.90	538	78
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	77
TJ Shook R 2023 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	21.0%	9.6%	3.6%	.273	4.07	21.2%	12.4%	191	-0.44	3.35	451	77
Patrick Johnson R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	17.3%	6.9%	2.4%	.286	4.14	15.7%	6.4%	120	+0.32	3.82	248	77
Bryce Morrow R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	12.8%	7.9%	2.4%	.316	5.44	10.1%	-0.2%	50	+1.13	4.31	125	76
Kanekoa Texeira R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	29	SP-	4.13	14.5%	11.2%	1.5%	.280	4.10	10.2%	-0.2%	63	-0.03	4.10	165	76
Roberto Gómez R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	27	SW	3.95	18.4%	8.9%	2.3%	.315	5.25	13.8%	4.9%	18	+1.30	3.95	115	76
J.P. France R 2022 · 4.44 FIP	27	SW	4.44	24.9%	10.9%	3.8%	.301	4.49	18.4%	8.8%	205	+0.05	4.04	577	76
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	75
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	75
Mike Connolly R 2018 · 5.13 FIP	26	SW	5.13	13.2%	9.4%	3.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	328	75
Logan Bawcom R 2016 · 3.73 FIP	27	SW	3.73	16.6%	9.2%	1.6%	.251	4.85	16.0%	6.7%	234	+1.12	3.73	399	74
David Griffin R 2023 · 5.85 FIP	27	SP-	5.85	13.9%	9.2%	5.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.43	239	74

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.6	80	21.0%	10.3%	1.28	4.82
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Jharel Cotton ('22)	1.2	58	19.8%	9.2%	1.59	4.50
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21