Christian Mejias
P
Biloxi Shuckers
+1.0
WAR
Age 27
RHP
6'0" / 160 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 1.0 · 2026
ERA4.55
FIP4.55
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.2%
BB%9.7%
K-BB%12.5%
IP120
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.0peak
2026
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 17 | ROK | DSL Astros Orange | 2 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 1 | — | — | — | 3.00 | — | — |
| 2017 | 18 | ROK | DSL Astros Orange | 14 | 7 | 52 | 217 | 40 | 24 | 1 | 12.5% | 13.8% | 0.6% | 4.01 | 4.15 | +0.5 |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | GCL Astros | 15 | 4 | 36 | 167 | 41 | 20 | 0 | 16.7% | 15.0% | 0.0% | 3.96 | 3.59 | +0.6 |
| 2019 | 20 | ROK | GCL Astros | 2 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 3.38 | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | 4 | 3 | 12 | 59 | 21 | 5 | 1 | 26.3% | 10.0% | 1.6% | 7.50 | 3.03 | +0.3 |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Asheville Tourists | 20 | 9 | 74 | 320 | 85 | 33 | 9 | 20.0% | 12.0% | 3.7% | 4.72 | 4.96 | +0.1 |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | 27 | 24 | 121 | 552 | 123 | 58 | 21 | 18.0% | 11.6% | 4.2% | 6.90 | 5.37 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | MIL | 22 | 22 | 120 | 507 | 113 | 49 | 16 | 22.2% | 9.7% | 3.1% | 4.55 | 4.55 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | MIL | 22 | 22 | 120 | 508 | 113 | 49 | 16 | 22.2% | 9.6% | 3.1% | 4.54 | 4.55 | +1.0 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | MIL | 21 | 21 | 118 | 496 | 109 | 47 | 16 | 22.0% | 9.5% | 3.2% | 4.55 | 4.57 | +1.0 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | MIL | 21 | 21 | 114 | 481 | 105 | 46 | 16 | 21.8% | 9.5% | 3.2% | 4.59 | 4.62 | +0.9 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | MIL | 20 | 20 | 110 | 464 | 100 | 45 | 15 | 21.6% | 9.6% | 3.3% | 4.64 | 4.68 | +0.8 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | MIL | 19 | 19 | 106 | 446 | 95 | 44 | 15 | 21.3% | 9.8% | 3.4% | 4.72 | 4.77 | +0.6 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | MIL | 18 | 18 | 101 | 426 | 89 | 42 | 15 | 21.0% | 9.9% | 3.5% | 4.81 | 4.87 | +0.5 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | MIL | 17 | 17 | 96 | 404 | 84 | 41 | 14 | 20.7% | 10.1% | 3.6% | 4.91 | 4.98 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | MIL | 16 | 16 | 90 | 381 | 77 | 40 | 14 | 20.3% | 10.4% | 3.7% | 5.02 | 5.10 | +0.1 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | MIL | 15 | 15 | 84 | 356 | 71 | 38 | 14 | 19.8% | 10.6% | 3.8% | 5.15 | 5.23 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 84 | 47 | 301 | 1338 | 238 | 167 | 39 | 17.8% | 12.5% | 2.9% | 5.47 | 4.76 | +1.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 56 | 31 | 200 | 888 | 158 | 111 | 26 | 17.8% | 12.5% | 2.9% | 5.47 | 4.76 | +1.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Christian Mejias (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.55 | 22.2% | 9.7% | 3.1% | — | 4.58 | 22.0% | 12.5% | 352 | +0.03 | — | — | — |
| Roberto Gómez R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.98 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .315 | 5.24 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.26 | 3.98 | 115 | 86 |
| Jared Mortensen R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.42 | 16.9% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .287 | 5.02 | 20.9% | 2.1% | 72 | +0.60 | 4.42 | 200 | 84 |
| Brett Sears R 2024 · 3.63 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.63 | 21.1% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .244 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 111 | 84 |
| Patrick Johnson R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.89 | 17.3% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .286 | 4.13 | 15.7% | 6.4% | 120 | +0.24 | 3.89 | 248 | 83 |
| Hector Noesí R 2027 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 250 | 83 |
| Mitch Atkins R 2029 · 3.70 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.70 | 21.4% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .341 | 4.75 | 14.3% | 6.2% | 78 | +1.05 | 3.70 | 205 | 83 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2027 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.94 | 22.4% | 6.8% | 3.4% | .324 | 3.78 | 22.0% | 12.8% | 135 | -0.16 | 3.62 | 224 | 82 |
| J.P. France R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.46 | 24.9% | 10.9% | 3.8% | .301 | 4.57 | 18.7% | 8.6% | 205 | +0.11 | 4.07 | 530 | 82 |
| Mat Latos R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.55 | 20.2% | 6.3% | 2.5% | .306 | 5.15 | 14.5% | 4.4% | 128 | +1.60 | 3.55 | 244 | 82 |
| Yariel Rodríguez R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.76 | 25.1% | 11.8% | 2.3% | .275 | 3.86 | 22.1% | 11.7% | 73 | +0.10 | 3.76 | 180 | 82 |
| Lisalverto Bonilla R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.60 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .304 | 4.72 | 15.8% | 3.2% | 11 | +0.12 | 3.22 | 221 | 81 |
| Justin De Fratus R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.80 | 18.8% | 8.3% | 2.3% | .325 | 4.62 | 12.4% | 6.9% | 279 | +0.82 | 3.80 | 500 | 81 |
| Joe Wieland R 2025 · 4.28 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.28 | 18.6% | 7.3% | 3.3% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.45 | 270 | 81 |
| Zack Wheeler R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.89 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 4.2% | .327 | 3.06 | 23.0% | 16.8% | 449 | -1.83 | 2.32 | 1,443 | 81 |
| David Hale R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.26 | 16.2% | 6.8% | 3.1% | .343 | 4.14 | 13.8% | 8.1% | 251 | -0.12 | 3.32 | 493 | 80 |
| Jose Pina R 2028 · 4.86 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.86 | 16.9% | 9.2% | 3.7% | .231 | 3.67 | 13.6% | 6.9% | 246 | -1.19 | 3.65 | 424 | 79 |
| K.C. Hunt R 2024 · 4.34 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.34 | 19.3% | 9.0% | 3.1% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 223 | 79 |
| David Phelps R 2027 · 3.95 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.95 | 16.0% | 6.8% | 2.4% | .299 | 2.78 | 29.9% | 20.6% | 142 | -1.17 | 2.49 | 373 | 79 |
| Kolton Mahoney R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.57 | 19.4% | 8.8% | 1.8% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 302 | 79 |
| Taylor Jungmann R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.86 | 18.8% | 11.1% | 1.7% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 435 | 79 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.8 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.1 | $0.5M | -$0.1M |
| Totals | $5M | $15M | +$9M | ||