Drew Waters — OGILVIE

Drew WatersLF Omaha Storm Chasers

Age 27 S/R 6'1" / 185 lbs AAA HR -6% Svc 4.000 · Ctrl thru 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION278 act + 185 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 731vR 92

AVG/OBP/SLG.235 / .289 / .370

PA185

HR4

SB5

K%30

BB%6

BABIP320

ISO135

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 45 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2023-2025

CONTACT45

Whiff%

1015.6%

xwOBA

350.291

POWER40

Barrel%

457.5

Avg EV

1786.6

Bat Spd

5271.6

EYE40

Chase%

3035.5%

SPEED50

Sprint

5227.6

Platoon Splits2025 · 219 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

175

—

wRC+

—

wOBA

185

292

▶▶R

ISO

—

090

—

BABIP

222

364

▶▶R

29.5%

26.9%

▶R

BB%

6.8%

4.6%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2022

Service 4.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Arb-2	$0.2M	+0.0	$0.1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2027	Arb-3	$5M	+1.0	$7M	+$3M
Totals		$5M		$7M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2017	18	ROK	Danville Braves	—	224	206	39	9	1	3	15	99	3	6	3	189	254	286	541	97	346	44	7	236	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	ROK	Danville Braves	—	224	198	55	14	2	4	23	70	3	6	3	278	362	429	791	152	411	31	10	355	130	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	A	2 teams	—	498	469	113	28	7	9	20	158	7	23	5	241	282	388	670	147	342	32	4	289	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	A	2 teams	—	498	460	135	39	9	9	29	105	7	23	5	293	345	476	821	183	362	21	6	360	134	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	AA	2 teams	—	573	539	128	36	9	7	27	222	4	16	6	237	279	377	656	139	387	39	5	283	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	AA	2 teams	—	573	527	163	40	9	7	39	164	4	16	6	309	361	459	821	150	435	29	7	362	135	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	—	459	419	82	16	1	9	32	179	7	28	9	196	264	303	567	107	315	39	7	249	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	—	459	404	97	22	1	11	47	142	7	28	9	240	330	381	711	141	341	31	10	322	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	AAA	2 teams	—	462	421	91	15	4	15	37	168	2	18	1	216	283	378	660	162	317	36	8	290	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	AAA	2 teams	—	462	409	106	18	6	17	48	138	2	18	1	259	339	457	796	198	348	30	10	351	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	MLB	2 teams	—	395	356	85	17	6	10	31	123	5	18	5	239	309	404	713	166	332	31	8	314	98	-1	+2	+4	+1	+11	1.8
2023	24	MLB	2 teams	—	395	354	86	17	7	10	33	120	5	18	5	243	316	415	732	172	335	30	8	323	106	+2	+2	+4	+1	+11	2.1
2024	25	AAA	2 teams	—	476	429	104	31	4	9	35	159	7	20	7	242	310	396	706	154	357	33	7	307	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AAA	2 teams	—	476	409	117	34	4	13	55	127	7	20	7	286	380	484	864	198	380	27	12	379	148	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AAA	2 teams	—	450	418	91	15	5	7	28	139	3	12	4	218	272	328	599	110	309	31	6	261	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AAA	2 teams	—	450	414	99	16	5	8	32	127	3	12	4	239	298	360	658	121	326	28	7	296	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	27	AAA	KC	—	278	262	58	16	1	8	15	85	0	8	2	221	264	382	645	160	294	31	5	277	70	-9	+1	+0	+1	+8	0.0
YTD	27	AAA	KC	—	278	255	66	19	1	10	22	71	0	8	2	259	318	459	777	200	320	26	8	341	119	+6	+1	+0	+1	+8	1.6
ROS	27	AAA	KC	10%	185	170	40	7	2	4	12	55	1	5	1	235	289	370	659	135	327	30	6	302	89	-2	+1	-1	+1	+5	0.4
ROS	27	MLB	KC	10%	19	18	4	1	0	0	1	6	0	1	0	222	263	278	541	56	323	32	5	294	83	-0	+0	-0	+0	+1	0.0
FULL	27	AAA	KC	—	297	280	62	17	1	8	16	91	0	9	2	221	264	375	639	154	297	31	5	278	71	-10	+1	-0	+1	+8	0.1
TOT	27	AAA	KC	—	463	432	98	23	3	12	27	140	1	13	3	227	274	377	651	150	305	30	6	287	78	-12	+1	-1	+2	+13	0.4
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	28	MLB	KC	31%	466	431	104	18	6	11	30	140	2	12	3	241	294	387	681	146	330	30	6	303	90	-5	+1	-3	+2	+13	0.9
2028	29	MLB	KC	40%	454	420	102	18	6	11	29	137	2	11	3	243	295	393	688	150	329	30	6	301	89	-6	+1	-3	+2	+13	0.7
2027	28	MLB	KC	31%	145	134	32	6	2	3	9	43	1	4	1	239	292	381	672	142	326	30	6	296	85	-3	+0	-1	+1	+4	0.2
2028	29	MLB	KC	40%	180	165	39	7	2	4	12	54	1	4	1	236	292	376	668	139	325	30	7	294	83	-3	+0	-1	+1	+5	0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1028	937	220	38	13	21	74	316	10	30	10	235	297	370	668	136	329	31	7	298	87	-16	+2	-4	-12	+29	-0.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	592	139	24	8	13	47	200	6	19	6	235	297	368	665	133	330	31	7	298	87	-10	+1	-2	-8	+18	-0.0
Career	—			—	4642	4278	979	210	51	95	296	1579	43	169	47	229	285	368	654	140	337	34	6	286	77	-120	+15	-8	-3	+132	1.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	599	136	29	7	13	41	221	6	24	7	227	283	364	647	137	334	34	6	286	77	-17	+2	-1	-0	+18	0.2

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2017	18	ROK	Danville Braves	—	224	198	55	14	2	4	23	70	3	6	3	278	362	429	791	152	411	31	10	355	130	+7	+0	—	—	+6	1.4
2018	19	A+	Florida Fire Frogs	—	133	123	33	7	3	0	8	33	1	3	0	268	318	374	692	106	363	25	6	308	94	-1	+1	—	—	+4	0.4
2018	19	A	Rome Braves	—	365	337	102	32	6	9	21	72	6	20	5	303	354	513	868	211	362	20	6	379	148	+20	+2	—	—	+10	3.3
2019	20	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	—	119	107	29	5	0	2	11	43	0	3	0	271	339	374	713	103	429	36	9	321	104	+0	+1	—	—	+3	0.5
2019	20	AA	Mississippi Braves	—	454	420	134	35	9	5	28	121	4	13	6	319	367	481	848	162	436	27	6	373	143	+22	+0	—	—	+13	3.6
2021	22	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	—	459	404	97	22	1	11	47	142	7	28	9	240	330	381	711	141	341	31	10	322	104	+2	+2	—	—	+13	1.8
2022	23	MLB	Kansas City Royals	—	109	96	23	6	1	5	12	40	0	0	0	240	321	479	800	240	353	37	11	349	125	+3	+0	-3	-5	+3	-0.1
2022	23	AAA	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	353	313	83	12	5	12	36	98	2	18	1	265	345	450	795	185	346	28	10	351	127	+11	+3	—	—	+10	2.4
2023	24	MLB	Kansas City Royals	—	337	302	69	11	5	8	27	107	5	16	5	228	302	377	680	149	321	32	8	303	90	-4	+1	+4	+1	+10	1.3
2023	24	AAA	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	58	52	17	6	2	2	6	13	0	2	0	327	397	635	1.031	308	405	22	10	442	196	+6	+0	—	—	+2	0.9
2024	25	MLB	Kansas City Royals	—	19	16	3	1	0	0	2	6	1	0	0	188	316	250	566	62	300	32	11	275	69	-1	+0	-0	-5	+1	-0.6
2024	25	AAA	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	457	393	114	33	4	13	53	121	6	20	7	290	383	494	876	204	383	26	12	383	152	+27	+1	—	—	+13	4.2
2025	26	MLB	Kansas City Royals	—	219	206	50	6	3	1	11	60	2	5	3	243	288	316	603	73	338	27	5	274	68	-8	-0	-3	-5	+6	-1.0
2025	26	AAA	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	231	208	49	10	2	7	21	67	1	7	1	236	309	404	713	168	313	29	9	317	101	+0	+1	—	—	+7	0.8
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	684	620	145	24	9	14	52	213	8	21	8	234	301	369	670	135	331	31	8	300	88	-9	+1	-1	-13	+19	-0.4

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Luis Rivaslast yr '08 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,279 PA	7	2,279	33	81	257	303	376	-0	-5	3.8	3.8
#1Luis Rivaslast yr '08 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,279 PA	/162	664	10	24	257	303	376	-0.0	-1.4	1.1	pk7: 4
#2Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	6	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
	/162	664	13	9	241	304	367	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#3John Mayberry Jr.last yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,506 PA	6	1,506	54	15	234	298	417	-6	-18	1.7	1.7
	/162	664	24	7	234	298	417	-2.8	-8.1	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	4	1,024	22	30	238	297	380	-1	-3	1.5	1.5
	/162	664	15	20	238	297	380	-0.6	-1.8	1.0	pk7: 2
#4Jose Maciaslast yr '05 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,785 PA	6	1,785	25	43	256	298	370	-8	+2	1.4	1.4
	/162	664	9	16	256	298	370	-3.1	+0.6	0.5	pk7: 1
#5Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	7	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
#5Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	/162	664	19	6	236	292	400	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#6Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Drew Waters (OGILVIE)	27	45	40	50	40	227/274/377	150	305	12	13	30%	6%	78	+0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Kaleb Cowart 2019 · MLB	27	44→52	44→45	53→50	43	217/268/343	126	279	11	16	26%	6%	68	-0.5	215/262/336	121	274	11	10	25%	6%	63	-0.9	207/250/317	110	260	10	6	24%	5%	51	-1.1
✕Dalton Guthrie 2023 · MLB	27	50→54	44→45	52→50	40	245/295/368	123	319	11	19	26%	5%	85	+0.7	235/294/334	99	310	8	18	25%	6%	76	+0.1	231/296/307	76	309	5	17	25%	6%	66	-0.3
✕Eli White 2021 · MLB	27	43→49	43→50	49→60	41	212/277/326	114	300	11	14	32%	7%	67	-0.5	217/291/351	134	302	16	22	32%	8%	80	+0.4	238/302/384	146	318	18	31	30%	7%	89	+0.5
✕Daniel Ortmeier 2008 · MLB	27	45→51	47→50	53→55	42	229/279/366	137	279	14	18	24%	5%	79	+0.3	225/284/330	105	293	9	14	25%	6%	71	-0.3	221/286/300	79	296	6	13	26%	7%	64	-0.4
✕Darnell Sweeney 2018 · MLB	27	43→48	43→50	47→55	41	214/261/326	112	281	10	18	27%	6%	60	-1.0	205/258/328	123	319	13	12	38%	6%	59	-1.1	181/239/303	122	306	14	8	43%	6%	43	-0.9
✕Skye Bolt 2021 · AAA	27	42→39	47→50	49→50	42	208/271/344	135	299	14	12	34%	8%	69	-0.4	235/297/385	150	308	17	13	28%	7%	91	+1.1	238/304/382	144	312	16	12	28%	7%	89	+0.4
●Junior Lake 2017 · MLB	27	44→54	43→50	48→55	41	216/270/324	108	307	10	17	32%	7%	63	-0.8	232/300/370	138	297	14	16	25%	8%	89	+0.9	252/328/418	165	294	19	21	20%	9%	110	+1.5
✕Mel Rojas Jr. 2017 · AAA	27	46→50	43→45	50	43	226/274/340	114	289	10	12	25%	6%	69	-0.4	227/274/354	127	292	13	10	26%	6%	73	-0.1	228/273/356	127	292	14	4	26%	5%	72	-0.1
✕Darrell Ceciliani 2017 · MLB	27	47→56	44→45	52→55	40	231/272/351	120	295	11	20	25%	5%	71	-0.3	215/261/321	106	294	10	13	29%	5%	59	-1.1	162/199/180	19	260	0	5	36%	3%	-9	-1.0
●Derek Hill 2023 · MLB	27	48→51	44→50	55→60	39	232/278/357	125	327	11	16	32%	6%	75	-0.0	244/293/389	145	324	15	19	28%	6%	90	+1.0	248/301/422	175	338	22	29	32%	6%	100	+0.7
✕Ryan LaMarre 2016 · MLB	27	41→51	43→45	48→60	38	206/254/314	107	279	11	16	30%	5%	54	-1.4	241/291/344	103	348	9	18	32%	5%	77	+0.1	234/305/370	135	335	13	23	32%	7%	86	+0.4
✕Riley Unroe 2023 · AAA	27	46→48	45→50	54→55	49	228/299/352	124	289	12	20	25%	9%	83	+0.6	228/305/365	137	299	15	23	27%	10%	89	+1.0	227/311/367	139	295	15	26	27%	10%	89	+0.5
✕Nick Franklin 2018 · MLB	27	43→50	47→50	53→50	45	218/275/352	135	264	14	14	24%	7%	73	-0.1	213/284/332	119	268	11	12	24%	8%	72	-0.2	170/251/269	99	226	8	8	27%	9%	41	-1.3
✕Taylor Kohlwey 2021 · AAA	27	47→55	43→45	49→50	42	226/293/339	114	319	11	11	31%	7%	78	+0.2	235/305/333	98	312	8	11	25%	8%	80	+0.4	233/311/331	98	302	8	11	24%	9%	81	+0.3
✕Dalton Pompey 2021 · AAA	28	47→57	42→45	48→55	45	227/294/333	106	310	10	14	29%	8%	76	+0.1	229/286/351	122	298	13	10	26%	7%	78	+0.2	223/283/334	111	284	13	7	25%	6%	69	-0.1
✕Andrew Velazquez 2021 · MLB	27	44→51	45→50	53→60	41	217/268/344	128	290	12	19	29%	6%	68	-0.5	216/272/340	124	317	12	33	33%	7%	69	-0.4	206/265/326	120	304	12	41	34%	7%	59	-0.6
✕Luis González 2023 · MLB	27	49→52	46→45	52→50	49	242/315/369	128	306	14	18	25%	9%	95	+1.4	239/311/356	117	315	10	17	25%	8%	89	+1.0	225/307/310	85	284	4	28	20%	9%	73	-0.0
✕Casey Rogowski 2008 · AAA	27	46→53	45	50→55	46	228/290/357	129	285	13	18	24%	7%	81	+0.4	225/284/353	128	302	14	16	28%	7%	77	+0.1	222/282/345	123	305	13	17	30%	8%	71	-0.2
✕Jeff Duncan 2006 · MLB	27	45→46	42→45	53→60	46	219/283/325	106	289	9	15	26%	8%	69	-0.4	233/299/319	86	303	8	21	24%	7%	74	-0.1	238/309/298	60	308	6	28	23%	7%	70	-0.1
✕JaCoby Jones 2019 · MLB	27	43→46	46→50	52→50	38	213/268/352	139	299	13	16	32%	6%	70	-0.3	229/293/393	164	321	17	11	32%	7%	92	+1.2	222/288/377	154	325	17	7	35%	7%	82	+0.2