Trevor Rogers
P
Baltimore Orioles
Age 28
LHP
6'5" / 230 lbs
MLB
Svc 5.0 · Ctrl thru 2026
peak 1.7 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION90 act + 60 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9099vR 109
ERA3.79
FIP3.82
K%18.9%
BB%8.0%
K-BB%10.9%
ROS IP60
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 151 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p3693.5
Whiff%
p3222.8%
K%
p2218.1%
xwOBA vs
p430.320
FB+0.6 (55%)
SI (11%)
CT-0.5 (10%)
CH-0.7 (23%)
SL-1.0 (12%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 20 | A | Greensboro Grasshoppers | 17 | 17 | 73 | 327 | 85 | 27 | 4 | 100% | 4.3 | 19.2% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 1.3% | 5.82 | 3.42 | — |
| 2018 | 20 | A | Greensboro Grasshoppers | 17 | 17 | 73 | 327 | 85 | 27 | 4 | 100% | 4.3 | 26.0% | 8.3% | 17.7% | 1.2% | 5.82 | 2.59 | — |
| 2019 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 23 | 136 | 567 | 150 | 33 | 10 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.6% | 6.6% | 14.0% | 3.3% | 2.90 | 4.02 | — |
| 2019 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 23 | 136 | 567 | 150 | 33 | 10 | 100% | 5.9 | 26.5% | 5.8% | 20.6% | 1.8% | 2.90 | 2.58 | — |
| 2020 | 22 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 7 | 7 | 28 | 130 | 39 | 13 | 5 | 100% | 4.0 | 30.0% | 10.0% | 20.0% | 4.1% | 6.11 | 4.07 | +0.2 |
| 2020 | 22 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 7 | 7 | 28 | 130 | 39 | 13 | 5 | 100% | 4.0 | 30.0% | 10.0% | 20.0% | 3.8% | 6.11 | 4.03 | +0.2 |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 141 | 582 | 169 | 47 | 6 | 100% | 5.2 | 28.5% | 8.0% | 20.5% | 1.2% | 2.48 | 2.34 | +5.1 |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 141 | 582 | 169 | 47 | 6 | 100% | 5.2 | 29.0% | 8.1% | 21.0% | 1.0% | 2.48 | 2.26 | +5.2 |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 27 | 27 | 123 | 546 | 131 | 47 | 18 | 100% | 4.6 | 22.2% | 9.4% | 12.8% | 3.3% | 5.56 | 4.24 | +1.7 |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 27 | 27 | 123 | 546 | 131 | 47 | 18 | 100% | 4.6 | 24.0% | 8.6% | 15.4% | 3.3% | 5.56 | 4.02 | +2.0 |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 6 | 6 | 27 | 110 | 31 | 8 | 2 | 100% | 4.5 | 24.1% | 7.6% | 16.5% | 2.7% | 2.67 | 3.50 | +0.3 |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 6 | 6 | 27 | 110 | 31 | 8 | 2 | 100% | 4.5 | 28.2% | 7.3% | 20.9% | 1.8% | 2.67 | 2.66 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 30 | 153 | 682 | 127 | 63 | 17 | 100% | 5.1 | 18.1% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 2.4% | 5.06 | 4.07 | +2.4 |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 30 | 153 | 682 | 127 | 63 | 17 | 100% | 5.1 | 18.6% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 2.5% | 5.06 | 4.12 | +2.3 |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 26 | 26 | 142 | 569 | 132 | 38 | 10 | 100% | 5.5 | 22.6% | 6.7% | 15.9% | 1.7% | 2.66 | 2.96 | +4.1 |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 26 | 26 | 142 | 569 | 132 | 38 | 10 | 100% | 5.5 | 23.2% | 6.7% | 16.5% | 1.8% | 2.66 | 2.96 | +4.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 17 | 17 | 90 | 382 | 69 | 31 | 10 | 100% | 5.3 | 18.1% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 2.6% | 4.48 | 4.04 | +1.2 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | BAL | 10 | 10 | 60 | 254 | 48 | 20 | 6 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.9% | 8.0% | 10.9% | 2.4% | 3.79 | 3.82 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | BAL | 10 | 10 | 60 | 253 | 48 | 20 | 6 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.9% | 8.0% | 10.9% | 2.5% | 3.84 | 3.87 | +0.5 |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 151 | 636 | 117 | 51 | 16 | — | — | 18.4% | 8.1% | 10.3% | 2.5% | 4.21 | 3.95 | +2.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 151 | 636 | 117 | 51 | 16 | — | — | 18.4% | 8.1% | 10.4% | 2.6% | 4.23 | 3.97 | +2.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | BAL | 15 | 15 | 92 | 390 | 72 | 32 | 10 | 100% | 6.2 | 18.6% | 8.2% | 10.4% | 2.5% | 4.26 | 4.34 | +1.0 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | BAL | 14 | 14 | 87 | 366 | 65 | 31 | 10 | 100% | 6.2 | 17.9% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 2.7% | 4.43 | 4.55 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | BAL | 13 | 13 | 81 | 342 | 58 | 30 | 10 | 100% | 6.2 | 17.1% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 3.0% | 4.64 | 4.78 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | BAL | 12 | 12 | 75 | 316 | 58 | 27 | 10 | 100% | 6.2 | 18.3% | 8.4% | 9.9% | 3.2% | 4.71 | 4.76 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | BAL | 11 | 11 | 69 | 290 | 51 | 26 | 10 | 100% | 6.2 | 17.5% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 3.5% | 4.91 | 5.04 | -0.2 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB | BAL | 10 | 10 | 62 | 263 | 44 | 25 | 10 | 100% | 6.2 | 16.6% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 3.8% | 5.17 | 5.35 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | BAL | 15 | 15 | 92 | 388 | 72 | 32 | 10 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.6% | 8.2% | 10.4% | 2.6% | 4.31 | 4.39 | +0.9 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | BAL | 14 | 14 | 87 | 367 | 66 | 31 | 10 | 100% | 6.2 | 17.9% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 2.8% | 4.49 | 4.61 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | BAL | 14 | 14 | 81 | 342 | 59 | 30 | 11 | 100% | 5.8 | 17.1% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 3.1% | 4.70 | 4.84 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | BAL | 12 | 12 | 75 | 317 | 58 | 27 | 11 | 100% | 6.2 | 18.3% | 8.4% | 9.9% | 3.3% | 4.78 | 4.83 | +0.0 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | BAL | 12 | 12 | 69 | 291 | 51 | 26 | 11 | 100% | 5.8 | 17.5% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 3.6% | 4.98 | 5.11 | -0.3 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB | BAL | 10 | 10 | 62 | 262 | 43 | 25 | 10 | 100% | 6.2 | 16.6% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 3.9% | 5.25 | 5.43 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 208 | 208 | 1136 | 4824 | 987 | 413 | 127 | 100% | 5.5 | 20.5% | 8.6% | 11.9% | 2.6% | 4.24 | 3.90 | +20.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 37 | 37 | 200 | 849 | 174 | 73 | 22 | 100% | 5.5 | 20.5% | 8.6% | 11.9% | 2.6% | 4.24 | 3.90 | +3.5 | ||
| Career | — | 180 | 180 | 914 | 3895 | 854 | 322 | 92 | 100% | 5.1 | 21.9% | 8.3% | 13.7% | 2.4% | 4.00 | 3.59 | +19.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 39 | 39 | 200 | 852 | 187 | 70 | 20 | 100% | 5.1 | 21.9% | 8.3% | 13.7% | 2.4% | 4.00 | 3.59 | +4.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Trevor Rogers (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.94 | 20.5% | 7.8% | 2.2% | — | 4.55 | 17.9% | 9.4% | 260 | +0.61 | — | — | — |
| Ryan Bollinger L 2025 · 3.53 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.53 | 17.1% | 7.5% | 1.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.53 | 112 | 71 |
| Felix Doubront L 2025 · 3.87 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.87 | 18.0% | 8.4% | 2.2% | .304 | 4.45 | 23.7% | 14.7% | 42 | +0.58 | 3.39 | 291 | 70 |
| Irwin Delgado L 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.47 | 18.7% | 10.2% | 1.2% | .345 | 4.78 | 15.6% | 6.1% | 89 | +1.31 | 3.42 | 383 | 67 |
| John Gast L 2024 · 3.80 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.80 | 14.1% | 7.9% | 1.6% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 122 | 66 |
| Kramer Sneed L 2025 · 4.29 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.29 | 13.2% | 8.2% | 2.3% | .265 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.29 | 116 | 66 |
| Orlando Lara L 2028 · 4.00 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.00 | 15.2% | 10.3% | 1.6% | .348 | 4.09 | 14.2% | 7.2% | 230 | +0.09 | 3.82 | 426 | 65 |
| Alejandro Soto L 2027 · 4.16 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.16 | 12.8% | 7.0% | 2.3% | .367 | 4.34 | 14.6% | 9.1% | 128 | +0.18 | 3.97 | 280 | 65 |
| Shinnosuke Ogasawara L 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.98 | 22.0% | 6.8% | 3.4% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 122 | 65 |
| Jo-Jo Reyes L 2028 · 3.53 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.53 | 14.9% | 6.4% | 1.6% | .326 | 3.42 | 16.3% | 10.7% | 90 | -0.11 | 3.06 | 240 | 64 |
| Nico Tellache L 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.65 | 13.4% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 160 | 64 |
| Paul Oseguera L 2029 · 4.06 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.06 | 17.6% | 8.5% | 2.5% | .297 | 5.58 | 5.6% | -6.9% | 28 | +1.52 | 4.06 | 162 | 64 |
| Brad Mills L 2028 · 4.98 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.98 | 14.5% | 10.0% | 3.3% | .294 | 6.49 | 14.4% | 2.6% | 44 | +1.51 | 4.98 | 182 | 64 |
| Jaime García L 2027 · 2.89 FIP | 29 | SP | 2.89 | 19.0% | 5.9% | 1.2% | .265 | 4.24 | 19.7% | 11.0% | 411 | +1.35 | 2.89 | 540 | 64 |
| Kyle Hald L 2024 · 4.17 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.17 | 12.1% | 7.4% | 2.1% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.17 | 124 | 63 |
| Frank Garces L 2027 · 4.56 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.56 | 15.0% | 7.9% | 3.1% | .334 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.13 | 306 | 63 |
| Justin Marks L 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.75 | 19.1% | 9.3% | 2.0% | .283 | 3.84 | 18.7% | 7.7% | 76 | +0.09 | 3.75 | 324 | 62 |
| Madison Bumgarner L 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.86 | 19.8% | 7.3% | 2.8% | .268 | 4.19 | 21.8% | 16.5% | 396 | +0.33 | 2.81 | 1,257 | 62 |
| Scott Diamond L 2027 · 3.73 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.73 | 12.6% | 4.3% | 2.1% | .330 | 3.36 | 12.7% | 7.9% | 166 | -0.37 | 3.36 | 316 | 62 |
| Mike Belfiore L 2024 · 4.52 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.52 | 12.0% | 9.2% | 2.3% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.52 | 135 | 62 |
| James Gillheeney L 2025 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.80 | 14.4% | 8.0% | 1.6% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 129 | 62 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 7 | 80 | 18.2% | 8.5% | 1.13 | 4.52 |
| Kendall Graveman ('23) | 7 | 90 | 17.7% | 7.9% | 1.07 | 3.89 |
| Wily Peralta ('22) | 7 | 71 | 16.1% | 9.8% | 1.22 | 4.66 |
| Robert Gsellman ('21) | 5 | 67 | 18.4% | 7.8% | 0.96 | 4.38 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| Matt Moore ('24) | 8 | 98 | 20.5% | 9.3% | 1.33 | 4.82 |
| Luis Cessa ('23) | 8 | 53 | 18.3% | 7.8% | 1.40 | 4.43 |