Trevor Rogers

P Baltimore Orioles

Age 29 LHP 6'5" / 230 lbs MLB Svc 6.0 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 2.3 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MANExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	26	MIX2 levels	30	30	153	5.06	4.12	18.6%	9.2%	2.3	K 18.0% · BB 9.1% · FIP 4.13
2025	27	MIX3 levels	26	26	142	2.66	2.96	23.2%	6.7%	4.4	K 22.5% · BB 6.5% · FIP 2.93
2026	28	MLBBAL	30	30	170	4.03	3.39	22.5%	5.6%	4.2
2027PROJ	29	MLBBAL	20	20	121	3.80	3.82	21.7%	6.3%	2.3
2028PROJ	30	MLBBAL	17	17	100	4.00	4.09	21.0%	6.6%	1.6
2029PROJ	31	MLBBAL	14	14	82	4.20	4.33	20.2%	6.9%	1.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 10.9 · Next 3 projected WAR 5.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service6.273First FA2028

2027Ext / FA-deal$19M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs70

K%52

FB Velo40

Form2.53 ERA (proj 3.80) · K 30.0% (proj 21.7%) · BB 1.7% (proj 6.3%) ▲▲ last 60d · 32 IP through Oct 27

CompsJ.A. Happ (age 29) · Wei-Yin Chen (age 29) · Mark Redman (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8593vR 101

ERA3.80

FIP3.82

K%21.7%

BB%6.3%

K-BB%15.4%

Proj IP121

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 121 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4093.8

Whiff%

p4424.4%

p5222.5%

xwOBA vs

p700.293

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2020

Service 6.273 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$19M	+2.3	$18M	-$0.8M
Totals		$19M		$18M	-$0.8M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	20	A MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	17	17	73	327	85	27	4	100%	4.3	19.2%	9.7%	9.5%	1.4%	5.82	3.49	—
2018	20	A RAW	Greensboro Grasshoppers	17	17	73	327	85	27	4	100%	4.3	26.0%	8.3%	17.7%	1.2%	5.82	2.59	—
2019	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	136	567	150	33	10	100%	5.9	20.6%	6.6%	14.0%	2.6%	2.90	3.64	—
2019	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	136	567	150	33	10	100%	5.9	26.5%	5.8%	20.6%	1.8%	2.90	2.58	—
2020	22	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	7	7	28	130	39	13	5	100%	4.0	30.0%	10.0%	20.0%	4.0%	6.11	4.06	+0.4
2020	22	MLB RAW	Miami Marlins	7	7	28	130	39	13	5	100%	4.0	30.0%	10.0%	20.0%	3.8%	6.11	4.03	+0.5
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	141	582	169	47	6	100%	5.2	28.5%	8.0%	20.5%	1.1%	2.48	2.33	+5.6
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	141	582	169	47	6	100%	5.2	29.0%	8.1%	21.0%	1.0%	2.48	2.26	+5.8
2022	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	27	123	546	131	47	18	100%	4.6	22.2%	9.4%	12.8%	3.3%	5.56	4.24	+1.7
2022	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	27	123	546	131	47	18	100%	4.6	24.0%	8.6%	15.4%	3.3%	5.56	4.02	+2.0
2023	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	6	6	27	110	31	8	2	100%	4.5	24.1%	7.6%	16.5%	2.7%	2.67	3.49	+0.6
2023	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	6	6	27	110	31	8	2	100%	4.5	28.2%	7.3%	20.9%	1.8%	2.67	2.66	+0.9
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	30	153	682	127	63	17	100%	5.1	18.0%	9.1%	8.9%	2.6%	5.06	4.13	+2.3
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	30	153	682	127	63	17	100%	5.1	18.0%	9.1%	8.9%	2.6%	5.06	4.13	+2.3
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	30	153	682	127	63	17	100%	5.1	18.6%	9.2%	9.4%	2.5%	5.06	4.12	+2.3
2025	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	26	142	569	132	38	10	100%	5.5	22.5%	6.5%	16.0%	1.7%	2.66	2.93	+4.4
2025	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	26	142	569	132	38	10	100%	5.5	22.5%	6.5%	16.0%	1.7%	2.66	2.93	+4.4
2025	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	26	142	569	132	38	10	100%	5.5	23.2%	6.7%	16.5%	1.8%	2.66	2.96	+4.4
2026	28	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	30	30	170	699	157	39	19	100%	5.7	22.5%	5.6%	16.9%	2.6%	4.03	3.34	+4.3
2026	28	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	30	30	170	699	157	39	19	100%	5.7	22.5%	5.6%	16.9%	2.6%	4.03	3.34	+4.3
2026	28	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	30	30	170	699	157	39	19	100%	5.7	22.5%	5.6%	16.9%	2.7%	4.03	3.39	+4.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			132	132	690	2920	678	230	67	100%	5.2	23.2%	7.9%	15.3%	2.3%	3.88	3.40	+16.9
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	BAL	20	20	121	511	111	32	13	100%	6.0	21.7%	6.3%	15.4%	2.5%	3.80	3.82	+2.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	BAL	17	17	100	423	89	28	11	100%	5.9	21.0%	6.6%	14.4%	2.7%	3.93	4.02	+1.6
2029	31	MLB MLE	BAL	14	14	82	348	70	24	10	100%	5.9	20.2%	6.9%	13.3%	2.9%	4.13	4.26	+1.1
2030	32	MLB MLE	BAL	11	11	66	277	54	20	9	100%	6.0	19.4%	7.3%	12.1%	3.2%	4.36	4.51	+0.7
2031	33	MLB MLE	BAL	8	8	49	205	38	16	7	100%	6.1	18.6%	7.8%	10.8%	3.5%	4.62	4.79	+0.3
2032	34	MLB MLE	BAL	5	5	33	138	24	11	5	100%	6.5	17.7%	8.3%	9.4%	3.8%	4.90	5.09	+0.1
2028	30	MLB CTX	BAL	17	17	100	422	89	28	12	100%	5.9	21.0%	6.6%	14.4%	2.8%	4.00	4.09	+1.6
2029	31	MLB CTX	BAL	14	14	82	346	70	24	11	100%	5.9	20.2%	6.9%	13.3%	3.1%	4.20	4.33	+1.1
2030	32	MLB CTX	BAL	11	11	66	279	54	20	9	100%	6.0	19.4%	7.3%	12.1%	3.3%	4.44	4.59	+0.7
2031	33	MLB CTX	BAL	8	8	49	207	38	16	7	100%	6.1	18.6%	7.8%	10.8%	3.6%	4.71	4.88	+0.3
2032	34	MLB CTX	BAL	6	6	33	139	25	12	5	100%	5.5	17.7%	8.3%	9.4%	3.9%	4.99	5.18	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		187	187	1019	4311	953	329	112	100%	5.5	22.1%	7.6%	14.5%	2.6%	4.03	3.62	+22.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	37	200	846	187	65	22	100%	5.5	22.1%	7.6%	14.5%	2.6%	4.03	3.62	+4.3
Career	—	MLE		193	193	993	4212	941	327	97	100%	5.1	22.3%	7.8%	14.6%	2.3%	3.96	3.47	+20.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		39	39	200	848	189	66	20	100%	5.1	22.3%	7.8%	14.6%	2.3%	3.96	3.47	+4.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAANorfolk Tides · 30 IPFIP 3.45 → 3.81 (+0.36)K% 19.5% → 16.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.55%	—	×0.860	16.81%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.02%	—	×0.900	5.41%
HR / BF /BF	2.26%	÷0.945	×1.100	2.62%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 89).

Result: FIP 3.45 → 3.81, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAANorfolk Tides · 29 IPFIP 3.31 → 3.65 (+0.34)K% 25.0% → 21.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.860	21.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.50%	—	×0.900	6.75%
HR / BF /BF	2.50%	÷0.996	×1.100	2.76%

Result: FIP 3.31 → 3.65, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 8 IPFIP 3.58 → 4.54 (+0.96)K% 31.4% → 25.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.43%	—	×0.810	25.46%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×1.100	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	5.71%	÷1.048	×1.200	6.54%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 110).

Result: FIP 3.58 → 4.54, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 8 IPFIP 1.98 → 2.54 (+0.56)K% 41.2% → 36.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	41.18%	—	×0.880	36.24%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.88%	—	×1.050	6.18%
HR / BF /BF	2.94%	÷1.032	×1.100	3.14%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 106).

Result: FIP 1.98 → 2.54, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AJupiter Hammerheads · 8 IPFIP 1.12 → 2.16 (+1.04)K% 37.5% → 27.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.50%	—	×0.740	27.75%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.38%	—	×1.180	11.06%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.891	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 78).

Result: FIP 1.12 → 2.16, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Jupiter Hammerheads · 110 IPFIP 2.35 → 3.44 (+1.09)K% 26.8% → 20.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.75%	—	×0.770	20.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.26%	—	×1.150	6.05%
HR / BF /BF	1.54%	÷0.803	×1.250	2.39%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 61).

Result: FIP 2.35 → 3.44, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 26 IPFIP 3.48 → 4.44 (+0.96)K% 25.2% → 20.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.23%	—	×0.810	20.43%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.11%	—	×1.100	8.92%
HR / BF /BF	2.70%	÷0.918	×1.200	3.53%

Result: FIP 3.48 → 4.44, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AGreensboro Grasshoppers · 73 IPFIP 2.62 → 3.49 (+0.87)K% 26.0% → 19.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.99%	—	×0.740	19.24%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.26%	—	×1.180	9.74%
HR / BF /BF	1.22%	÷1.117	×1.300	1.42%

Result: FIP 2.62 → 3.49, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Trevor Rogers (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.5%	—	4.23	20.3%	13.4%	248	+0.41	—	—	—
J.A. Happ L 2012 · 3.94 FIP	29	SP	3.94	23.0%	8.8%	3.0%	.313	3.87	20.1%	12.5%	423	-0.07	3.37	1,890	71
Wei-Yin Chen L 2014 · 3.63 FIP	29	SP	3.63	17.6%	4.3%	2.7%	.293	4.08	19.2%	14.1%	348	+0.45	3.63	1,065	69
Mark Redman L 2003 · 3.52 FIP	29	SP	3.52	18.8%	7.2%	2.0%	.270	4.58	12.0%	4.4%	536	+1.06	3.52	1,239	69
Wandy Rodriguez L 2008 · 3.41 FIP	29	SP	3.41	22.3%	7.0%	2.4%	.304	3.61	21.7%	14.2%	592	+0.20	3.37	1,572	67
Chris Narveson L 2011 · 4.01 FIP	29	SP	4.01	18.0%	9.2%	2.3%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	4.00	625	67
Doug Davis L 2005 · 3.93 FIP	29	SP	3.93	22.0%	9.3%	2.8%	.272	4.16	17.2%	6.9%	542	+0.23	3.47	1,713	64
Mike Sirotka L 2000 · 4.35 FIP	29	SP	4.35	15.4%	8.2%	2.8%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	710	63
Scott Diamond L 2015 · 3.77 FIP	29	SP	3.77	12.6%	4.3%	2.2%	.330	3.46	12.7%	7.9%	166	-0.31	3.46	659	62
Joe Saunders L 2010 · 4.46 FIP	29	SP	4.46	13.0%	7.2%	2.8%	.305	4.43	13.4%	7.0%	570	-0.03	3.86	1,378	58
Wade Miley L 2016 · 4.07 FIP	29	SP	4.07	19.3%	6.8%	3.2%	.323	4.25	18.8%	9.1%	431	+0.18	3.12	1,805	58
Nate Robertson L 2007 · 4.35 FIP	29	SP	4.35	15.2%	7.8%	2.8%	.306	4.51	14.2%	5.9%	320	+0.16	4.13	1,144	56
Dallas Keuchel L 2017 · 3.76 FIP	29	SP	3.76	21.4%	8.0%	2.6%	.254	3.72	17.7%	10.7%	381	-0.04	2.86	1,841	55
Kaz Ishii L 2003 · 4.51 FIP	29	SP	4.51	21.3%	14.8%	2.4%	.280	5.18	13.2%	0.9%	263	+0.67	4.51	564	55
James Paxton L 2018 · 3.21 FIP	29	SP	3.21	32.2%	6.5%	3.7%	.298	3.63	29.3%	20.7%	171	+0.42	2.46	1,022	53
Erik Bedard L 2008 · 4.12 FIP	29	SP	4.12	20.7%	10.7%	2.6%	.266	3.61	24.2%	14.9%	212	-0.51	2.96	1,317	52
Cliff Lee L 2008 · 2.70 FIP	29	SP	2.70	19.1%	3.7%	1.4%	.299	2.68	22.2%	18.5%	677	-0.02	2.49	2,146	52
C.J. Wilson L 2010 · 3.42 FIP	29	SP	3.42	20.0%	10.9%	1.1%	.262	3.46	21.1%	12.0%	638	+0.04	2.55	1,430	51
Christian Friedrich L 2016 · 3.96 FIP	29	SP	3.96	17.6%	8.8%	2.2%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	297	49
Ryan Bollinger L 2018 · 3.56 FIP	27	SP	3.56	17.1%	7.5%	1.7%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	112	49
Paul Oseguera L 2015 · 3.83 FIP	31	SP	3.83	17.6%	8.5%	2.1%	.297	5.62	5.6%	-6.9%	28	+1.79	3.83	162	49

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.7	95	22.1%	7.6%	0.98	3.98
Garrett Richards ('22)	4.9	98	20.4%	8.7%	0.85	3.87
Alex Wood ('24)	6.3	114	22.1%	7.1%	0.91	3.78
Collin McHugh ('23)	5.0	90	23.3%	6.7%	0.96	3.72
Ron Robinson ('84-'92, 8 WAR*)	4.0	100	18.0%*	7.3%*	0.97*	3.99*
Joe Hesketh ('84-'94, 10 WAR*)	4.8	87	23.2%*	8.8%*	1.07*	3.95*
Alejandro Peña ('81-'96, 15 WAR*)	5.3	81	24.7%*	7.5%*	0.96*	3.61*