Trevor Rogers — OGILVIE

Trevor Rogers P Baltimore Orioles

+0.6 WAR

INJURED · Injured 15-Day (D15)

Age 28 LHP 6'5" / 230 lbs MLB Svc 5.0 · Ctrl thru 2026 peak 1.2 · 2027

ERA3.76

FIP3.85

xFIP4.17

SIERA4.04

K%21.4%

BB%7.9%

K-BB%13.4%

IP104

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.2peak

2027

K†5050

FB Velo

p2292.5

Whiff%

p5826.6%

p3820.5%

xwOBA vs

p670.295

FB+0.6 (53%)

SI (11%)

CU (2%)

CT-0.5 (12%)

CH-0.7 (24%)

SL-1.0 (8%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2018	20	A	Greensboro Grasshoppers	17	17	73	327	85	27	4	19.2%	9.7%	1.4%	5.82	3.50	+1.3
2019	21	AA	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	23	23	136	567	150	33	10	20.6%	6.6%	2.6%	2.90	3.60	+2.6
2020	22	MLB	Miami Marlins	7	7	28	130	39	13	5	30.0%	10.0%	4.3%	6.11	4.18	+0.2
2021	23	MLB	Miami Marlins	27	27	141	582	169	47	6	28.5%	8.0%	1.2%	2.48	2.35	+4.7
2022	24	MLB	Miami Marlins	27	27	123	546	131	47	18	22.2%	9.4%	3.2%	5.56	4.17	+1.6
2023	25	MLB	Miami Marlins	6	6	27	110	31	8	2	24.1%	7.6%	2.5%	2.67	3.42	+0.5
2024	26	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	30	30	153	682	127	63	17	18.1%	9.3%	2.4%	5.06	4.09	+2.1
2025	27	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	26	26	142	569	132	38	10	22.6%	6.7%	1.6%	2.66	2.93	+3.8
▸ 2026 Season
2026	28	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	4	4	24	98	20	6	1	20.4%	6.1%	1.0%	3.04	2.71	+0.6
ROS	28	MLB	MIA	21	—	21	89	18	7	2	20.3%	7.5%	2.0%	3.25	3.45	+0.4
2026 Total	28	MLB	MIA	—	—	45	187	38	13	3	20.3%	6.8%	1.5%	3.14	3.06	+1.0
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	29	MLB	MIA	14	14	75	318	69	22	7	21.8%	6.8%	2.1%	3.63	3.63	+1.2
2028	30	MLB	MIA	11	11	63	265	56	18	6	21.2%	6.9%	2.1%	3.69	3.73	+0.9
2029	31	MLB	MIA	52	—	52	220	45	15	5	20.6%	7.0%	2.2%	3.77	3.83	+0.7
2030	32	MLB	MIA	43	—	43	181	36	13	4	20.0%	7.2%	2.3%	3.88	3.95	+0.5
2031	33	MLB	MIA	35	—	35	149	29	11	4	19.4%	7.4%	2.4%	4.00	4.07	+0.4
2032	34	MLB	MIA	29	—	29	122	23	9	3	18.7%	7.6%	2.5%	4.13	4.21	+0.2
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			167	167	847	3611	805	297	79	22.3%	8.2%	2.2%	3.92	3.45	+17.7
/ 200 IP	—			39	39	200	852	190	70	19	22.3%	8.2%	2.2%	3.92	3.45	+4.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Trevor Rogers (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.99	20.2%	7.9%	2.2%	—	3.72	21.3%	14.4%	190	-0.27	—	—	—
Kyle Hunter L 2026 · 4.50 FIP	28	SW	4.50	14.0%	6.1%	3.3%	.335	—	—	—	—	—	4.34	188	65
Jimmy Reyes L 2026 · 4.88 FIP	28	SW	4.88	13.8%	8.0%	3.5%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.03	200	64
Jeremy Bleich L 2026 · 3.30 FIP	28	SW	3.30	14.3%	6.3%	1.1%	.291	3.67	16.5%	10.2%	155	+0.37	3.20	241	64
Franklin Morales L 2027 · 3.33 FIP	29	SW	3.33	15.9%	5.4%	1.6%	.271	4.03	15.0%	7.0%	39	+0.70	3.33	101	64
Christian Friedrich L 2026 · 3.77 FIP	28	SW	3.77	16.7%	8.5%	1.8%	.355	3.86	17.6%	8.8%	129	+0.09	3.77	188	64
Colt Hynes L 2028 · 3.42 FIP	30	SU	3.42	16.2%	8.4%	1.1%	.290	3.68	17.9%	13.2%	105	+0.26	3.42	152	63
Enrique Lechuga L 2027 · 4.67 FIP	29	SW	4.67	10.0%	10.5%	2.0%	.354	3.79	10.5%	4.4%	59	-0.88	3.79	137	63
Ryan Verdugo L 2026 · 3.61 FIP	28	SW	3.61	19.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.281	3.36	22.7%	17.3%	82	-0.25	3.36	153	62
Brian Flynn L 2026 · 4.02 FIP	28	SW	4.02	14.0%	9.5%	1.6%	.325	4.49	17.7%	7.6%	73	+0.47	3.82	277	62
Dan Jennings L 2026 · 3.06 FIP	28	SW	3.06	18.9%	7.4%	1.1%	.294	3.79	17.8%	8.5%	188	+0.73	3.06	244	62
Jeremy Horst L 2027 · 4.12 FIP	29	SW	4.12	18.8%	11.2%	2.2%	.291	3.71	15.1%	2.7%	48	-0.41	3.71	108	62
Duane Below L 2027 · 3.65 FIP	29	SU	3.65	12.5%	3.7%	2.1%	.266	4.56	14.7%	9.6%	140	+0.91	3.65	189	61
Matt Grace L 2026 · 3.62 FIP	28	SW	3.62	16.4%	7.4%	1.8%	.296	3.89	18.3%	13.7%	106	+0.27	2.68	289	61
Caleb Thielbar L 2026 · 4.16 FIP	28	SU	4.16	11.8%	10.8%	1.2%	.253	2.66	19.0%	16.6%	57	-1.50	2.22	459	61
Jeff Ibarra L 2026 · 3.79 FIP	28	SU	3.79	17.8%	9.7%	1.8%	.321	3.32	19.2%	13.8%	66	-0.47	2.89	101	61
Matt Lujan L 2026 · 4.61 FIP	28	SW	4.61	14.3%	6.4%	3.5%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	4.09	227	61
Marlon Arias L 2028 · 4.30 FIP	30	SW	4.30	16.8%	12.2%	2.0%	.330	3.73	17.2%	9.5%	22	-0.57	3.73	154	60
Dylan Phillips L 2024 · 4.27 FIP	26	SW	4.27	16.9%	10.3%	2.4%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	2.64	172	60
Garrett Schoenle L 2025 · 4.18 FIP	27	SW	4.18	17.9%	8.5%	2.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.32	304	60
James Russell L 2027 · 3.59 FIP	29	SU	3.59	13.5%	4.7%	1.9%	.331	4.20	14.1%	8.7%	111	+0.61	2.65	233	60

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2020

Service 5.273 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Arb-3	$6M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$0.0M