Trevor Rogers — OGILVIE

Trevor Rogers P Baltimore Orioles

Age 28 LHP 6'5" / 230 lbs MLB Svc 5.0 · Ctrl thru 2026 peak 1.7 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION152 act + 14 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8088vR 96

ERA3.33

FIP3.36

K%21.6%

BB%6.5%

K-BB%15.1%

ROS IP14

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 166 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—55

STUF5555

CTRL5055

CMD5055

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4093.8

Whiff%

p4023.8%

p4821.9%

xwOBA vs

p680.294

FB+0.6 (56%)

SI (10%)

CT-0.5 (9%)

CH-0.7 (21%)

SL-1.0 (14%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2020

Service 5.273 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.5M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.5M
Totals		$0.5M		$1M	+$0.5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	20	A MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	17	17	73	327	85	27	4	100%	4.3	19.2%	9.7%	9.5%	1.4%	5.82	3.49	—
2018	20	A RAW	Greensboro Grasshoppers	17	17	73	327	85	27	4	100%	4.3	26.0%	8.3%	17.7%	1.2%	5.82	2.59	—
2019	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	136	567	150	33	10	100%	5.9	20.6%	6.6%	14.0%	2.6%	2.90	3.64	—
2019	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	136	567	150	33	10	100%	5.9	26.5%	5.8%	20.6%	1.8%	2.90	2.58	—
2020	22	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	7	7	28	130	39	13	5	100%	4.0	30.0%	10.0%	20.0%	4.0%	6.11	4.06	+0.3
2020	22	MLB RAW	Miami Marlins	7	7	28	130	39	13	5	100%	4.0	30.0%	10.0%	20.0%	3.8%	6.11	4.03	+0.3
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	141	582	169	47	6	100%	5.2	28.5%	8.0%	20.5%	1.1%	2.48	2.33	+4.7
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	141	582	169	47	6	100%	5.2	29.0%	8.1%	21.0%	1.0%	2.48	2.26	+4.8
2022	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	27	123	546	131	47	18	100%	4.6	22.2%	9.4%	12.8%	3.3%	5.56	4.24	+1.0
2022	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	27	123	546	131	47	18	100%	4.6	24.0%	8.6%	15.4%	3.3%	5.56	4.02	+1.3
2023	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	6	6	27	110	31	8	2	100%	4.5	24.1%	7.6%	16.5%	2.7%	2.67	3.49	+0.5
2023	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	6	6	27	110	31	8	2	100%	4.5	24.1%	7.6%	16.5%	2.7%	2.67	3.49	+0.5
2023	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	6	6	27	110	31	8	2	100%	4.5	28.2%	7.3%	20.9%	1.8%	2.67	2.66	+0.8
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	30	153	682	127	63	17	100%	5.1	17.9%	9.1%	8.8%	2.6%	5.06	4.15	+1.4
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	30	153	682	127	63	17	100%	5.1	17.9%	9.1%	8.8%	2.6%	5.06	4.15	+1.4
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	30	153	682	127	63	17	100%	5.1	18.6%	9.2%	9.4%	2.5%	5.06	4.12	+1.4
2025	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	26	142	569	132	38	10	100%	5.5	22.4%	6.5%	15.9%	1.7%	2.66	2.94	+3.5
2025	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	26	142	569	132	38	10	100%	5.5	22.4%	6.5%	15.9%	1.7%	2.66	2.94	+3.5
2025	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	26	142	569	132	38	10	100%	5.5	23.2%	6.7%	16.5%	1.8%	2.66	2.96	+3.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			129	129	672	2850	659	228	64	100%	5.2	23.1%	8.0%	15.1%	2.2%	3.90	3.39	+12.4
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	27	27	152	629	138	37	16	100%	5.6	21.9%	5.9%	16.1%	2.4%	4.15	3.33	+2.9
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	27	27	152	629	138	37	16	100%	5.6	21.9%	5.9%	16.1%	2.4%	4.15	3.33	+2.9
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	MLB RAW	BAL	27	27	152	629	138	37	16	100%	5.6	21.9%	5.9%	16.1%	2.5%	4.15	3.39	+2.8
SO FAR	28	MLB RAW	BAL	27	27	152	629	138	37	16	100%	5.6	21.9%	5.9%	16.1%	2.5%	4.15	3.39	+2.8
ROS	28	MLB MLE	BAL	2	2	14	59	13	4	1	100%	7.0	21.6%	6.5%	15.1%	2.3%	3.33	3.36	+0.3
ROS	28	MLB CTX	BAL	2	2	14	59	13	4	1	100%	7.0	21.6%	6.5%	15.1%	2.4%	3.39	3.42	+0.3
2026 TOT	28	MLB MLE	BAL	—	—	166	688	151	41	17	—	—	21.9%	5.9%	16.0%	2.5%	4.08	3.33	+3.2
FULL	28	MLB A+C	BAL	—	—	166	699	151	41	17	—	—	21.6%	5.8%	15.7%	2.5%	4.09	3.39	+3.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	BAL	15	15	92	390	81	26	10	100%	6.2	20.8%	6.7%	14.1%	2.6%	3.90	3.98	+1.0
2028	30	MLB MLE	BAL	14	14	87	366	74	26	10	100%	6.2	20.2%	7.0%	13.1%	2.8%	4.07	4.19	+0.7
2029	31	MLB MLE	BAL	13	13	81	342	66	25	10	100%	6.2	19.4%	7.4%	12.0%	3.0%	4.28	4.42	+0.5
2030	32	MLB MLE	BAL	12	12	75	316	65	22	10	100%	6.2	20.6%	7.0%	13.6%	3.2%	4.35	4.40	+0.4
2031	33	MLB MLE	BAL	11	11	69	290	57	22	10	100%	6.2	19.8%	7.4%	12.3%	3.5%	4.55	4.68	+0.2
2032	34	MLB MLE	BAL	10	10	62	263	50	21	10	100%	6.2	18.9%	7.9%	10.9%	3.8%	4.81	4.99	-0.1
2027	29	MLB CTX	BAL	15	15	92	388	81	26	10	100%	6.1	20.8%	6.7%	14.1%	2.7%	3.96	4.04	+1.0
2028	30	MLB CTX	BAL	14	14	87	367	74	26	11	100%	6.2	20.2%	7.0%	13.1%	2.9%	4.14	4.26	+0.7
2029	31	MLB CTX	BAL	14	14	81	342	66	25	11	100%	5.8	19.4%	7.4%	12.0%	3.1%	4.35	4.49	+0.5
2030	32	MLB CTX	BAL	12	12	75	317	65	22	11	100%	6.2	20.6%	7.0%	13.6%	3.4%	4.43	4.48	+0.4
2031	33	MLB CTX	BAL	12	12	69	291	58	22	11	100%	5.8	19.8%	7.4%	12.3%	3.7%	4.64	4.77	+0.2
2032	34	MLB CTX	BAL	10	10	62	262	49	21	10	100%	6.2	18.9%	7.9%	10.9%	4.0%	4.90	5.08	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		209	209	1151	4875	1065	374	129	100%	5.5	21.8%	7.7%	14.2%	2.6%	4.08	3.68	+17.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	36	200	847	185	65	22	100%	5.5	21.8%	7.7%	14.2%	2.6%	4.08	3.68	+3.0
Career	—	MLE		190	190	975	4142	920	325	95	100%	5.1	22.2%	7.8%	14.4%	2.3%	3.98	3.47	+15.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		39	39	200	849	189	67	19	100%	5.1	22.2%	7.8%	14.4%	2.3%	3.98	3.47	+2.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Trevor Rogers (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.96	20.4%	7.6%	2.2%	—	4.19	20.2%	13.1%	260	+0.23	—	—	—
Tyler Skaggs L 2019 · 3.64 FIP	28	SP	3.64	23.3%	8.4%	2.6%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.18	372	71
Steven Matz L 2019 · 4.21 FIP	28	SP	4.21	22.1%	6.5%	3.9%	.292	4.03	23.9%	17.6%	244	-0.18	3.19	1,220	69
Danny Duffy L 2017 · 3.42 FIP	28	SP	3.42	21.3%	6.7%	2.3%	.306	4.64	21.0%	11.8%	342	+1.22	3.29	915	69
Ryan Bollinger L 2018 · 3.56 FIP	27	SP	3.56	17.1%	7.5%	1.7%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	112	68
Felix Doubront L 2015 · 3.92 FIP	27	SP	3.92	18.0%	8.4%	2.3%	.304	4.12	23.7%	14.7%	42	+0.20	3.44	291	66
Drew Pomeranz L 2017 · 3.74 FIP	28	SP	3.74	23.5%	9.3%	2.6%	.308	4.62	25.6%	14.1%	216	+0.88	2.21	751	65
Jaime García L 2015 · 2.93 FIP	29	SP	2.93	19.0%	5.9%	1.3%	.265	4.32	19.7%	11.0%	411	+1.39	2.93	540	65
Matt Moore L 2017 · 4.57 FIP	28	SP	4.57	18.7%	8.1%	3.7%	.314	4.76	18.3%	9.8%	102	+0.19	2.80	861	64
Héctor Santiago L 2016 · 5.12 FIP	28	SP	5.12	18.3%	10.1%	4.2%	.257	5.09	20.1%	8.4%	310	-0.03	4.32	713	63
Irwin Delgado L 2017 · 3.54 FIP	28	SP	3.54	18.7%	10.2%	1.3%	.345	4.73	15.6%	6.1%	89	+1.19	3.52	383	63
Tyler Anderson L 2018 · 4.20 FIP	28	SP	4.20	22.3%	7.9%	3.6%	.278	4.42	18.5%	11.9%	247	+0.22	3.10	1,288	63
Paul Oseguera L 2015 · 3.83 FIP	31	SP	3.83	17.6%	8.5%	2.1%	.297	5.62	5.6%	-6.9%	28	+1.79	3.83	162	61
Cole Irvin L 2022 · 4.24 FIP	28	SP	4.24	17.3%	4.5%	3.7%	.268	4.41	16.5%	11.0%	238	+0.17	3.37	1,174	61
Jo-Jo Reyes L 2015 · 3.51 FIP	30	SP	3.51	14.9%	6.4%	1.6%	.326	3.31	16.3%	10.7%	90	-0.20	3.01	240	61
John Lamb L 2018 · 4.64 FIP	28	SP	4.64	22.5%	7.2%	4.6%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	3.38	390	60
John Gast L 2015 · 3.96 FIP	26	SP	3.96	14.1%	7.9%	1.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	122	60
Justin Marks L 2016 · 3.91 FIP	28	SP	3.91	19.1%	9.3%	2.3%	.283	3.83	18.7%	7.7%	76	-0.08	3.83	324	60
Scott Kazmir L 2015 · 3.84 FIP	31	SP	3.84	20.3%	7.7%	2.7%	.268	4.30	21.6%	12.9%	148	+0.46	3.84	395	59
Kramer Sneed L 2016 · 4.21 FIP	27	SP	4.21	13.2%	8.2%	2.2%	.265	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	116	59
Tommy Henry L 2023 · 4.56 FIP	26	SP	4.56	17.4%	8.5%	3.4%	.285	4.83	16.8%	6.9%	285	+0.27	4.40	671	59

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.8	80	20.1%	7.3%	1.14	4.23
Michael Fulmer ('23)	3.4	96	20.3%	7.6%	0.99	3.94
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Austin Pruitt ('23)	1.5	61	16.9%	5.6%	1.22	4.45