Matt Sauer
P
Oklahoma City Comets
+0.0
WAR
Age 27
RHP
6'4" / 230 lbs
AAA
peak 0.3 · 2027
ERA5.75
FIP4.99
xFIP4.24
SIERA4.03
K%19.2%
BB%8.4%
K-BB%10.8%
IP89
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2027
STUF3535
CTRL4545
CMD3535
K†4045
FB Velo
p4594.2
Whiff%
p1019.2%
K%
p2518.6%
xwOBA vs
p260.340
SI (18%)
SL (19%)
FB-0.9 (40%)
CH-1.6 (9%)
CT-2.8 (32%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 18 | ROK | GCL Yankees West | 6 | 6 | 12 | 57 | 12 | 8 | 0 | 14.3% | 17.5% | 0.0% | 5.40 | 4.11 | +0.1 |
| 2019 | 20 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | 2 | 2 | 9 | 39 | 8 | 6 | 0 | — | — | — | 2.08 | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ | Hudson Valley Renegades | 23 | 21 | 111 | 490 | 127 | 47 | 13 | 19.5% | 11.2% | 3.4% | 4.69 | 4.73 | +0.7 |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | Somerset Patriots | 22 | 22 | 109 | 469 | 134 | 41 | 13 | 22.3% | 10.0% | 3.3% | 4.54 | 4.32 | +1.2 |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Somerset Patriots | 17 | 16 | 74 | 307 | 93 | 34 | 12 | 23.9% | 11.4% | 4.6% | 3.41 | 5.03 | +0.0 |
| 2024 | 25 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 41 | 1 | 49 | 231 | 39 | 22 | 9 | 14.7% | 9.8% | 4.2% | 6.66 | 5.41 | -0.3 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 28 | 18 | 113 | 501 | 103 | 36 | 20 | 18.7% | 7.5% | 4.3% | 5.99 | 4.81 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | LAD | 16 | 16 | 89 | 376 | 66 | 36 | 14 | 17.5% | 9.7% | 3.7% | 6.13 | 5.28 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | LAD | 16 | 16 | 90 | 379 | 68 | 36 | 14 | 17.9% | 9.5% | 3.7% | 5.54 | 5.21 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | LAD | 16 | 16 | 88 | 370 | 66 | 35 | 14 | 17.7% | 9.5% | 3.7% | 5.31 | 5.21 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | LAD | 15 | 15 | 85 | 359 | 62 | 34 | 13 | 17.4% | 9.5% | 3.7% | 5.26 | 5.25 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | LAD | 15 | 15 | 82 | 347 | 59 | 33 | 13 | 16.9% | 9.6% | 3.8% | 5.29 | 5.33 | -0.2 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | LAD | 14 | 14 | 79 | 333 | 61 | 30 | 13 | 18.3% | 8.9% | 3.8% | 5.22 | 5.18 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | LAD | 14 | 14 | 75 | 318 | 56 | 29 | 13 | 17.6% | 9.1% | 3.9% | 5.27 | 5.31 | -0.2 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | LAD | 13 | 13 | 72 | 302 | 51 | 28 | 12 | 16.9% | 9.3% | 4.0% | 5.37 | 5.44 | -0.3 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | LAD | 12 | 12 | 67 | 285 | 46 | 27 | 12 | 16.2% | 9.5% | 4.1% | 5.51 | 5.60 | -0.4 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | LAD | 11 | 11 | 63 | 266 | 41 | 26 | 11 | 15.4% | 9.8% | 4.3% | 5.66 | 5.76 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 139 | 86 | 476 | 2094 | 417 | 213 | 77 | 19.9% | 10.2% | 3.7% | 4.93 | 4.73 | +3.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 58 | 36 | 200 | 880 | 175 | 89 | 32 | 19.9% | 10.2% | 3.7% | 4.93 | 4.73 | +1.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Matt Sauer (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.28 | 17.5% | 9.7% | 3.7% | — | 5.22 | 17.6% | 8.2% | 262 | -0.06 | — | — | — |
| Josh Roeder R 2025 · 4.72 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.72 | 15.1% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.72 | 175 | 77 |
| David Griffin R 2026 · 5.94 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.94 | 14.5% | 10.3% | 5.0% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 239 | 76 |
| Bud Norris R 2029 · 4.64 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.64 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 3.8% | .327 | 3.81 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -0.83 | 3.39 | 316 | 76 |
| Alejandro Martinez R 2025 · 4.43 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.43 | 17.5% | 10.9% | 2.6% | .393 | 4.26 | 9.2% | 3.9% | 53 | -0.17 | 4.26 | 166 | 76 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2025 · 4.23 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.23 | 16.1% | 8.3% | 2.6% | .309 | 3.32 | 24.1% | 13.4% | 34 | -0.91 | 3.32 | 252 | 75 |
| Hector Noesí R 2027 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 250 | 74 |
| Zack Wheeler R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.89 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 4.2% | .327 | 3.06 | 23.0% | 16.8% | 449 | -1.83 | 2.32 | 1,443 | 74 |
| Dennis O'Grady R 2025 · 4.98 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.98 | 13.5% | 11.0% | 3.0% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 157 | 73 |
| Lisalverto Bonilla R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.60 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .304 | 4.72 | 15.8% | 3.2% | 11 | +0.12 | 3.22 | 221 | 72 |
| Austin Bergner R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.00 | 22.3% | 13.6% | 3.8% | .325 | 4.04 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 91 | -0.96 | 4.04 | 448 | 72 |
| Jacob Turner R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.43 | 14.9% | 8.8% | 2.7% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 340 | 71 |
| Kris Medlen R 2028 · 4.76 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.76 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 3.9% | .261 | 5.17 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 173 | +0.41 | 4.58 | 261 | 71 |
| Nestor Molina R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.81 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 3.6% | .304 | 3.61 | 17.0% | 10.2% | 289 | -1.20 | 3.03 | 401 | 71 |
| Mike Connolly R 2025 · 5.12 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.12 | 13.2% | 9.4% | 3.5% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.88 | 328 | 70 |
| Luis Cessa R 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.54 | 21.9% | 8.7% | 4.0% | .272 | 4.05 | 18.9% | 11.2% | 167 | -0.49 | 3.15 | 891 | 70 |
| Dustin Beggs R 2025 · 4.37 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.37 | 15.6% | 7.4% | 3.0% | .329 | 5.09 | 11.3% | 3.6% | 48 | +0.72 | 3.42 | 407 | 70 |
| Sam Highfill R 2023 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 15.0% | 8.6% | 3.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.80 | 106 | 70 |
| Matt Cain R 2029 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.87 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | .296 | 5.04 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 214 | +0.17 | 4.87 | 294 | 70 |
| Andrew Quezada R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.65 | 14.6% | 6.6% | 3.5% | .294 | 5.29 | 11.3% | 1.8% | 91 | +0.64 | 4.37 | 412 | 69 |
| Chris Jensen R 2026 · 5.31 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.31 | 12.0% | 10.6% | 3.4% | .347 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.41 | 488 | 69 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.