Matt Sauer — OGILVIE

Matt Sauer P Las Vegas Aviators

Age 27 RHP 6'4" / 230 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION20 act + 12 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135127vR 119

ERA5.34

FIP5.35

K%15.9%

BB%8.9%

K-BB%7.0%

ROS IP12

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 32 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4545

CMD3535

K†3040

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4594.2

Whiff%

p1019.2%

p2518.6%

xwOBA vs

p260.340

SI (18%)

SL (19%)

FB-0.9 (40%)

CH-1.6 (9%)

CT-2.8 (32%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	18	ROK MLE	GCL Yankees West	6	6	12	57	12	8	0	100%	1.9	14.3%	17.5%	-3.2%	0.0%	5.40	4.11	—
2017	18	ROK RAW	GCL Yankees West	6	6	12	57	12	8	0	100%	1.9	21.1%	14.0%	7.0%	0.0%	5.40	3.10	—
2019	20	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	2	2	9	39	8	6	0	100%	4.3	20.5%	15.4%	5.1%	0.0%	2.08	3.32	—
2019	20	A RAW	Charleston RiverDogs	2	2	9	39	8	6	0	100%	4.3	20.5%	15.4%	5.1%	0.0%	2.08	3.33	—
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	21	111	490	127	47	13	91%	4.8	19.5%	11.2%	8.3%	3.4%	4.69	4.73	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	21	111	490	127	47	13	91%	4.8	25.9%	9.6%	16.3%	2.7%	4.69	3.60	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	109	469	134	41	13	100%	5.0	22.3%	10.0%	12.3%	3.3%	4.54	4.32	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	109	469	134	41	13	100%	5.0	28.6%	8.7%	19.8%	2.8%	4.54	3.32	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	17	16	74	307	93	34	12	94%	4.4	23.9%	11.4%	12.6%	4.5%	3.41	5.01	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	17	16	74	307	93	34	12	94%	4.4	23.9%	11.4%	12.6%	4.5%	3.41	5.01	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	17	16	74	307	93	34	12	94%	4.4	30.3%	11.1%	19.2%	3.9%	3.41	4.07	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	41	1	49	231	39	22	9	2%	1.2	14.5%	9.3%	5.2%	4.2%	6.66	5.38	-0.5
2024	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	41	1	49	231	39	22	9	2%	1.2	14.5%	9.3%	5.2%	4.2%	6.66	5.38	-0.5
2024	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	41	1	49	231	39	22	9	2%	1.2	16.9%	9.5%	7.4%	3.9%	6.66	5.26	-0.4
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	18	113	501	103	36	20	64%	4.0	17.9%	6.6%	11.3%	4.4%	5.99	4.82	+0.1
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	18	113	501	103	36	20	64%	4.0	17.9%	6.6%	11.3%	4.4%	5.99	4.82	+0.1
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	18	113	501	103	36	20	64%	4.0	20.6%	7.2%	13.4%	4.0%	5.99	4.54	+0.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			24	1	46	213	33	19	9	4%	1.9	15.5%	8.9%	6.6%	4.2%	6.85	5.45	-0.5
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	7	6	20	108	11	19	4	86%	2.8	8.5%	15.8%	-7.4%	4.1%	13.73	6.63	—
YTD	27	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	7	6	20	108	11	19	4	86%	2.8	8.5%	15.8%	-7.4%	4.1%	13.73	6.63	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	AAA RAW	OAK	7	6	20	108	11	19	4	86%	2.8	10.2%	17.6%	-7.4%	3.7%	13.73	6.50	—
ROS	27	MLB MLE	OAK	2	2	12	51	8	5	2	100%	6.0	15.9%	8.9%	7.0%	3.8%	5.34	5.35	-0.1
ROS	27	MLB CTX	OAK	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	15.9%	8.9%	7.0%	3.8%	5.34	5.35	-0.0
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	OAK	—	—	32	159	19	24	6	—	—	12.0%	14.8%	-2.8%	3.7%	10.55	6.14	-0.5
FULL	27	MLB A+C	OAK	—	—	1	5	1	0	0	—	—	15.9%	8.9%	7.0%	3.8%	5.34	4.97	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	OAK	24	24	143	603	99	54	23	100%	5.9	16.4%	8.9%	7.5%	3.8%	5.28	5.32	-0.7
2028	29	MLB MLE	OAK	23	23	136	575	94	52	22	100%	5.9	16.2%	9.1%	7.2%	3.9%	5.32	5.40	-0.8
2029	30	MLB MLE	OAK	21	21	128	541	86	50	22	100%	6.1	15.8%	9.3%	6.5%	4.1%	5.44	5.55	-0.9
2027	28	MLB CTX	OAK	10	10	61	258	42	23	10	100%	6.1	16.4%	8.9%	7.5%	3.8%	5.28	5.32	-0.3
2028	29	MLB CTX	OAK	13	13	80	338	55	31	13	100%	6.2	16.2%	9.1%	7.2%	3.9%	5.32	5.40	-0.4
2029	30	MLB CTX	OAK	15	15	90	380	60	35	15	100%	6.0	15.8%	9.3%	6.5%	4.1%	5.44	5.55	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		63	40	278	1195	191	109	48	63%	4.4	16.0%	9.1%	6.9%	4.0%	5.60	5.09	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		45	29	200	858	137	78	34	63%	4.4	16.0%	9.1%	6.9%	4.0%	5.60	5.09	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		146	92	496	2202	422	224	82	63%	3.4	19.2%	10.2%	9.0%	3.7%	5.28	4.82	-2.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		59	37	200	889	170	91	33	63%	3.4	19.2%	10.2%	9.0%	3.7%	5.28	4.82	-1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Matt Sauer (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.35	15.9%	8.9%	3.8%	—	5.42	16.2%	7.1%	407	+0.07	—	—	—
Alfonso Sanchez R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.346	4.85	14.0%	5.3%	138	-0.11	4.51	224	80
Aldo Montes R 2017 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.4%	8.5%	3.3%	.322	4.69	18.2%	7.6%	75	-0.27	4.69	210	79
Bryce Morrow R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	12.8%	7.9%	2.4%	.316	5.44	10.1%	-0.2%	50	+1.13	4.31	125	77
David Griffin R 2023 · 5.85 FIP	27	SP-	5.85	13.9%	9.2%	5.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.43	239	77
Justin Topa R 2018 · 4.15 FIP	27	SP-	4.15	15.1%	7.9%	2.4%	.374	2.69	19.2%	12.6%	40	-1.46	2.67	280	76
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	74
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	73
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	73
Paul Clemens R 2015 · 5.37 FIP	27	SP-	5.37	14.3%	14.1%	3.1%	.310	4.62	16.9%	7.3%	200	-0.75	4.58	247	73
Shawn Dubin R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	27	SP-	4.93	19.3%	12.9%	3.3%	.292	3.97	21.8%	11.4%	79	-0.96	3.02	341	72
Aaron Northcraft R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	26	SW	4.19	16.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.309	3.32	24.1%	13.4%	34	-0.87	3.32	252	72
Orlando Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	27	SW	4.67	13.7%	10.6%	2.5%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	4.40	119	72
Jacob Turner R 2018 · 4.48 FIP	27	SP-	4.48	14.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	340	71
Jacob Wosinski R 2023 · 6.31 FIP	24	SP-	6.31	17.7%	12.4%	5.7%	.351	4.73	16.8%	5.2%	148	-1.58	3.89	181	71
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	71
Noah Song R 2023 · 6.06 FIP	26	SP	6.06	12.0%	13.2%	4.2%	.239	3.84	19.6%	8.0%	114	-2.22	3.68	136	71
Miguel Ruiz R 2015 · 5.77 FIP	29	SP-	5.77	8.8%	8.0%	4.4%	.346	5.60	10.6%	-0.4%	53	-0.17	5.60	117	71
Kris Medlen R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	29	SP-	4.82	15.4%	6.4%	4.0%	.261	5.17	17.1%	8.6%	173	+0.35	4.59	261	71
Kyle Lloyd R 2018 · 4.23 FIP	27	SP-	4.23	18.2%	9.8%	2.6%	.336	4.75	17.2%	9.3%	110	+0.52	3.50	572	70
Luis Niebla R 2017 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP-	5.12	11.6%	13.2%	2.4%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	156	70

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.7	137	16.1%	9.1%	1.51	5.34
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Homer Bailey ('19)	1.9	96	18.5%	7.8%	1.34	5.56
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12