Matt Sauer
P
Oklahoma City Comets
Age 27
RHP
6'4" / 230 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 101 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 141132vR 123
ERA5.40
FIP5.44
K%16.4%
BB%9.6%
K-BB%6.8%
ROS IP102
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 101 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p4594.2
Whiff%
p1019.2%
K%
p2518.6%
xwOBA vs
p260.340
SI (18%)
SL (19%)
FB-0.9 (40%)
CH-1.6 (9%)
CT-2.8 (32%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 18 | ROK | GCL Yankees West | 6 | 6 | 12 | 57 | 12 | 8 | 0 | 100% | 1.9 | 14.3% | 17.5% | -3.2% | 0.0% | 5.40 | 4.11 | — |
| 2017 | 18 | ROK | GCL Yankees West | 6 | 6 | 12 | 57 | 12 | 8 | 0 | 100% | 1.9 | 21.1% | 14.0% | 7.0% | 0.0% | 5.40 | 3.10 | — |
| 2019 | 20 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | 2 | 2 | 9 | 39 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 100% | 4.3 | 20.5% | 15.4% | 5.1% | 0.0% | 2.08 | 3.32 | — |
| 2019 | 20 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | 2 | 2 | 9 | 39 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 100% | 4.3 | 20.5% | 15.4% | 5.1% | 0.0% | 2.08 | 3.33 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 21 | 111 | 490 | 127 | 47 | 13 | 91% | 4.8 | 19.5% | 11.2% | 8.3% | 3.4% | 4.69 | 4.73 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 21 | 111 | 490 | 127 | 47 | 13 | 91% | 4.8 | 25.9% | 9.6% | 16.3% | 2.7% | 4.69 | 3.60 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 22 | 109 | 469 | 134 | 41 | 13 | 100% | 5.0 | 22.3% | 10.0% | 12.3% | 3.3% | 4.54 | 4.28 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 22 | 109 | 469 | 134 | 41 | 13 | 100% | 5.0 | 28.6% | 8.7% | 19.8% | 2.8% | 4.54 | 3.32 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 17 | 16 | 74 | 307 | 93 | 34 | 12 | 94% | 4.4 | 23.9% | 11.4% | 12.6% | 4.4% | 3.41 | 4.94 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 17 | 16 | 74 | 307 | 93 | 34 | 12 | 94% | 4.4 | 30.3% | 11.1% | 19.2% | 3.9% | 3.41 | 4.07 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 41 | 1 | 49 | 231 | 39 | 22 | 9 | 2% | 1.2 | 14.7% | 9.8% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 6.66 | 5.37 | -0.5 |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 41 | 1 | 49 | 231 | 39 | 22 | 9 | 2% | 1.2 | 16.9% | 9.5% | 7.4% | 3.9% | 6.66 | 5.26 | -0.4 |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 18 | 113 | 501 | 103 | 36 | 20 | 64% | 4.0 | 18.7% | 7.5% | 11.2% | 4.6% | 5.99 | 5.01 | +0.5 |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 18 | 113 | 501 | 103 | 36 | 20 | 64% | 4.0 | 20.6% | 7.2% | 13.4% | 4.0% | 5.99 | 4.54 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | LAD | 24 | 24 | 143 | 603 | 99 | 58 | 23 | 100% | 5.9 | 16.4% | 9.6% | 6.8% | 3.9% | 5.40 | 5.44 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | LAD | 24 | 24 | 143 | 603 | 101 | 57 | 24 | 100% | 5.9 | 16.8% | 9.5% | 7.3% | 3.9% | 5.36 | 5.41 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | LAD | 23 | 23 | 136 | 575 | 96 | 55 | 23 | 100% | 5.9 | 16.6% | 9.6% | 7.0% | 4.0% | 5.40 | 5.48 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | LAD | 10 | 10 | 61 | 258 | 43 | 25 | 10 | 100% | 6.1 | 16.8% | 9.5% | 7.3% | 3.9% | 5.36 | 5.41 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | LAD | 13 | 13 | 80 | 338 | 56 | 32 | 13 | 100% | 6.2 | 16.6% | 9.6% | 7.0% | 4.0% | 5.40 | 5.48 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 48 | 25 | 187 | 809 | 133 | 76 | 33 | 52% | 3.9 | 16.4% | 9.4% | 7.0% | 4.0% | 5.74 | 5.11 | +0.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 51 | 26 | 200 | 865 | 142 | 81 | 35 | 52% | 3.9 | 16.4% | 9.4% | 7.0% | 4.0% | 5.74 | 5.11 | +0.7 | ||
| Career | — | 139 | 86 | 476 | 2094 | 417 | 213 | 78 | 62% | 3.4 | 19.9% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 3.7% | 4.93 | 4.75 | +3.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 58 | 36 | 200 | 880 | 175 | 89 | 33 | 62% | 3.4 | 19.9% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 3.7% | 4.93 | 4.75 | +1.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Matt Sauer (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.44 | 16.4% | 9.6% | 3.9% | — | 5.44 | 16.7% | 7.2% | 279 | +0.00 | — | — | — |
| Alfonso Sanchez R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.81 | 12.5% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .346 | 4.97 | 14.0% | 5.3% | 138 | +0.16 | 4.54 | 224 | 79 |
| Bryce Morrow R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.48 | 12.8% | 7.9% | 2.7% | .316 | 5.59 | 10.1% | -0.2% | 50 | +1.11 | 4.48 | 125 | 78 |
| Aldo Montes R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.65 | 12.4% | 8.5% | 2.8% | .322 | 4.41 | 18.2% | 7.6% | 75 | -0.24 | 4.41 | 210 | 77 |
| David Griffin R 2026 · 6.04 FIP | 27 | SP- | 6.04 | 14.5% | 10.3% | 5.2% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.52 | 239 | 76 |
| Colby Morris R 2024 · 5.76 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.76 | 16.2% | 11.8% | 4.6% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 105 | 74 |
| Paul Clemens R 2026 · 5.36 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.36 | 14.3% | 14.1% | 3.1% | .310 | 4.76 | 16.9% | 7.3% | 200 | -0.60 | 4.76 | 247 | 74 |
| Nolan Sanburn R 2025 · 4.25 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.25 | 15.0% | 10.4% | 2.0% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 169 | 73 |
| Dawson Netz R 2024 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.42 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 3.5% | .225 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 102 | 72 |
| Orlando Rodriguez R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.53 | 13.7% | 10.6% | 2.3% | .252 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.50 | 119 | 72 |
| Jacob Turner R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.69 | 14.9% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 340 | 72 |
| Nick Fraze R 2026 · 5.29 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.29 | 14.9% | 11.8% | 3.6% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 278 | 72 |
| Brian Edgington R 2025 · 5.05 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.05 | 19.3% | 12.3% | 3.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 171 | 71 |
| Noah Song R 2025 · 6.24 FIP | 26 | SP | 6.24 | 12.0% | 13.2% | 4.5% | .239 | 4.28 | 17.8% | 4.6% | 85 | -1.96 | 3.62 | 106 | 70 |
| Mike Connolly R 2025 · 5.26 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.26 | 13.2% | 9.4% | 3.8% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.24 | 328 | 70 |
| Sean Hunley R 2026 · 6.22 FIP | 27 | SP- | 6.22 | 13.7% | 11.0% | 5.2% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 365 | 70 |
| Josh Roeder R 2025 · 4.75 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.75 | 15.1% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.75 | 175 | 70 |
| Kris Medlen R 2028 · 4.77 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.77 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.0% | .261 | 5.16 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 173 | +0.39 | 4.66 | 261 | 70 |
| Miguel Ruiz R 2028 · 6.00 FIP | 29 | SP- | 6.00 | 8.8% | 8.0% | 4.8% | .346 | 5.44 | 10.6% | -0.4% | 53 | -0.56 | 5.44 | 117 | 69 |
| Andres Santiago R 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.27 | 16.3% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .384 | 5.45 | 13.1% | 3.2% | 159 | +1.18 | 3.74 | 291 | 69 |
| Adam Panayotovich R 2024 · 5.45 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.45 | 9.6% | 9.0% | 3.7% | .375 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 121 | 69 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 141 | 16.6% | 9.6% | 1.52 | 5.39 |
| Chris Tillman ('18) | 4 | 116 | 16.5% | 9.7% | 1.34 | 5.42 |
| Matt Garza ('17) | 3 | 122 | 15.5% | 8.5% | 1.26 | 5.10 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez ('17) | 3 | 156 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 1.32 | 5.33 |
| Yovani Gallardo ('18) | 4 | 132 | 15.4% | 10.2% | 1.18 | 4.97 |
| Tom Koehler ('17) | 3 | 146 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.24 | 4.62 |
| James Shields ('18) | 4 | 176 | 19.8% | 9.6% | 1.71 | 4.81 |