J.T. Ginn

P Athletics

Age 28 RHP 6'2" / 200 lbs MLB Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 0.9 · 2028 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

Overview

MLBSPD6040-MANPre-ArbFA 2032

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX3 levels	29	26	137	5.00	3.93	21.0%	8.0%	1.6	K 18.5% · BB 7.7% · FIP 4.27
2025	26	MIX2 levels	28	21	112	4.51	3.93	27.1%	8.2%	1.3	K 26.2% · BB 8.0% · FIP 4.02
2026	27	MLBOAK	27	24	138	3.71	4.16	20.9%	9.7%	1.2
2027PROJ	28	MLBOAK	12	12	73	4.37	4.51	21.9%	8.8%	0.3
2028PROJ95% MLB	29	MLBOAK	18	18	109	4.50	4.63	21.3%	9.0%	0.3
2029PROJ95% MLB	30	MLBOAK	17	17	103	4.70	4.83	20.6%	9.3%	0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 4.1 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2031Service1.227First FA2032

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Arb-1$2M2030Arb-2$2M2031Ext$5M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

Whiff%59

xwOBA vs50

K%41

FB Velo36

CompsBrad Peacock (age 28) · Chase Anderson (age 28) · David Phelps (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114106vR 98

ERA4.37

FIP4.51

K%21.9%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%13.1%

Proj IP73

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 73 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$0M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL5555

CMD5555

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3693.5

Whiff%

p5926.7%

p4120.9%

xwOBA vs

p500.312

FB+5.3 (48%)

CH+1.9 (20%)

SI (37%)

CU (3%)

CT-2.0 (16%)

SL-3.8 (16%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2024

Service 1.227 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2029	Arb-1	$2M	—	—	—
2030	Arb-2	$2M	—	—	—
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$0.8M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	18	92	370	81	21	3	100%	5.1	16.6%	6.6%	10.0%	1.1%	3.03	3.12	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	18	92	370	81	21	3	100%	5.1	21.9%	5.7%	16.2%	0.8%	3.03	2.45	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	12	42	186	46	14	3	100%	3.5	20.5%	9.5%	11.0%	2.8%	5.10	4.11	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	12	42	186	46	14	3	100%	3.5	24.7%	7.5%	17.2%	1.6%	5.10	2.84	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	8	27	130	17	16	2	100%	3.3	8.2%	13.2%	-5.0%	2.3%	7.43	5.36	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	8	8	27	130	17	16	2	100%	3.3	13.1%	12.3%	0.8%	1.5%	7.43	4.60	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	26	137	599	126	48	17	90%	4.7	18.5%	7.7%	10.9%	3.2%	5.00	4.27	+1.0
2024	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	26	137	599	126	48	17	90%	4.7	18.5%	7.7%	10.9%	3.2%	5.00	4.27	+1.0
2024	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	29	26	137	599	126	48	17	90%	4.7	21.0%	8.0%	13.0%	2.8%	5.00	3.93	+1.6
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	21	112	476	129	39	18	75%	4.0	26.2%	8.0%	18.2%	3.9%	4.51	4.02	+1.2
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	21	112	476	129	39	18	75%	4.0	26.2%	8.0%	18.2%	3.9%	4.51	4.02	+1.2
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	21	112	476	129	39	18	75%	4.0	27.1%	8.2%	18.9%	3.8%	4.51	3.93	+1.3
2026	27	MLB MLE	Athletics	27	24	138	580	121	56	17	89%	5.1	20.9%	9.7%	11.2%	3.0%	3.71	4.21	+1.1
2026	27	MLB MLE	Athletics	27	24	138	580	121	56	17	89%	5.1	20.9%	9.7%	11.2%	3.0%	3.71	4.21	+1.1
2026	27	MLB RAW	Athletics	27	24	138	580	121	56	17	89%	5.1	20.9%	9.7%	11.2%	2.9%	3.71	4.16	+1.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			58	46	263	1114	249	94	38	79%	4.5	22.4%	8.4%	13.9%	3.4%	4.25	4.16	+2.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	OAK	12	12	73	308	68	27	10	100%	6.1	21.9%	8.8%	13.1%	3.2%	4.37	4.51	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	OAK	19	19	115	486	104	44	16	100%	6.1	21.3%	9.0%	12.3%	3.4%	4.55	4.68	+0.3
2029	30	MLB MLE	OAK	18	18	108	457	94	43	16	100%	6.0	20.6%	9.3%	11.3%	3.6%	4.75	4.88	+0.0
2030	31	MLB MLE	OAK	17	17	101	426	85	41	16	100%	5.9	19.9%	9.7%	10.2%	3.8%	4.97	5.11	-0.2
2028	29	MLB CTX	OAK	18	18	109	460	98	42	15	100%	6.1	21.3%	9.0%	12.3%	3.3%	4.50	4.63	+0.3
2029	30	MLB CTX	OAK	17	17	103	435	90	41	15	100%	6.1	20.6%	9.3%	11.3%	3.5%	4.70	4.83	+0.0
2030	31	MLB CTX	OAK	16	16	96	405	81	39	15	100%	6.0	19.9%	9.7%	10.2%	3.7%	4.92	5.06	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		109	97	571	2414	517	215	83	89%	5.2	21.4%	8.9%	12.5%	3.5%	4.49	4.31	+3.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		38	34	200	846	181	75	29	89%	5.2	21.4%	8.9%	12.5%	3.5%	4.49	4.31	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		122	109	548	2341	467	199	67	89%	4.5	19.9%	8.5%	11.4%	2.9%	4.37	4.07	+2.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	40	200	855	171	73	25	89%	4.5	19.9%	8.5%	11.4%	2.9%	4.37	4.07	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
J.T. Ginn (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.51	21.9%	8.8%	3.2%	—	4.88	20.6%	11.3%	324	+0.37	—	—	—
Brad Peacock R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	28	SP-	3.97	20.9%	8.7%	2.8%	.302	3.45	29.4%	20.4%	289	-0.52	2.97	748	80
Chase Anderson R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	28	SP	4.83	18.5%	8.2%	4.1%	.285	4.25	21.3%	13.3%	438	-0.58	3.30	1,260	79
David Phelps R 2015 · 3.94 FIP	28	SP	3.94	16.0%	6.8%	2.4%	.299	2.82	29.9%	20.6%	142	-1.12	2.50	672	72
Taylor Jungmann R 2017 · 3.88 FIP	27	SP-	3.88	18.8%	11.1%	1.8%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	435	71
Matt Shoemaker R 2015 · 4.38 FIP	28	SP	4.38	20.4%	5.8%	4.1%	.280	3.74	21.8%	15.9%	269	-0.64	3.12	728	68
Victor Santos R 2005 · 4.67 FIP	28	SP	4.67	13.9%	8.1%	3.1%	.278	4.90	16.0%	7.8%	179	+0.23	4.09	602	66
Anthony DeSclafani R 2018 · 4.47 FIP	28	SP	4.47	22.3%	5.8%	4.6%	.290	3.95	22.6%	16.0%	368	-0.52	3.38	1,014	66
Zack Godley R 2018 · 3.56 FIP	28	SP	3.56	23.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.315	5.07	17.6%	6.5%	219	+1.51	3.21	953	66
Dan Straily R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	28	SP	4.48	22.1%	7.3%	4.2%	.283	5.36	18.7%	10.3%	237	+0.88	3.50	1,134	66
Sam Gaviglio R 2018 · 4.31 FIP	28	SP	4.31	19.9%	6.3%	3.8%	.298	4.27	21.5%	16.3%	122	-0.04	3.66	754	65
Paul Clemens R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	28	SP	4.58	17.6%	9.1%	3.3%	.271	4.72	14.9%	3.9%	53	+0.14	4.58	345	65
Hector Velázquez R 2017 · 3.65 FIP	28	SP-	3.65	18.0%	6.6%	2.2%	.251	4.28	16.7%	7.4%	158	+0.63	2.75	536	64
Brian Edgington R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.28	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.29	3.99	171	64
Yariel Rodríguez R 2024 · 3.76 FIP	27	SP	3.76	24.9%	11.4%	2.4%	.275	3.72	24.1%	12.7%	89	-0.04	2.32	196	64
Nick Tropeano R 2019 · 4.96 FIP	28	SP-	4.96	20.3%	9.2%	4.4%	.336	3.93	22.7%	10.0%	83	-1.03	2.34	468	64
Dane Dunning R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	28	SP-	3.84	19.4%	7.6%	2.6%	.282	4.37	20.2%	11.5%	242	+0.53	2.62	950	63
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2015 · 3.97 FIP	30	SP	3.97	17.4%	7.1%	2.6%	.315	4.94	15.9%	8.7%	305	+0.97	3.97	567	63
Nate Karns R 2016 · 3.88 FIP	28	SP-	3.88	24.2%	10.6%	2.7%	.322	4.46	27.1%	20.7%	45	+0.58	3.88	299	63
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	613	63
Mike Thurman R 2001 · 4.45 FIP	28	SP	4.45	14.6%	6.5%	3.2%	.303	3.46	15.1%	7.9%	33	-0.99	3.46	482	63

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.3	95	21.5%	9.0%	1.34	4.51
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	106	20.5%	9.7%	1.30	4.61
Kyle Wright ('23)	1.4	94	21.9%	9.7%	1.25	4.45
John Patterson ('07)	2.3	76	21.2%	9.1%	1.19	4.32
Eddie Stack ('10-'14, 2 WAR*)	2.5	123	19.1%*	9.2%*	1.24*	4.60*
John Tsitouris ('57-'68, 1 WAR*)	3.3	110	19.5%*	9.7%*	1.30*	4.80*
Slick Castleman ('34-'39, 2 WAR*)	2.9	117	19.2%*	9.8%*	1.45*	4.67*