Bryan Mata

P Worcester Red Sox

Age 28 RHP 6'3" / 223 lbs AAA peak 0.6 · 2027

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	24	AAABOS	9	7	27	6.33	4.84	19.9%	21.3%	—	K 17.1% · BB 19.1% · FIP 4.51
2024	25	MIX4 levels	11	7	23	4.37	3.10	20.6%	9.3%	—	K 20.6% · BB 9.3% · FIP 3.10
2025	26	AAABOS	42	0	67	5.08	3.23	29.1%	12.2%	—	K 25.0% · BB 11.0% · FIP 3.53
2027PROJ	28	MLBBOS	21	21	125	4.20	4.20	25.5%	10.6%	1.0
2028PROJ37% MLB	29	MLBBOS	7	7	44	4.28	4.33	24.9%	10.6%	0.3
2029PROJ55% MLB	30	MLBBOS	10	10	62	4.41	4.51	24.3%	10.7%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 1.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff55Control40Command55

CompsFabio Castillo (age 28) · Yariel Rodríguez (age 27) · Jose Contreras (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113105vR 97

ERA4.20

FIP4.20

K%25.5%

BB%10.6%

K-BB%14.9%

Proj IP125

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 125 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL4040

CMD5555

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2016	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox 2	14	14	61	247	61	19	2	100%	4.4	16.8%	9.6%	7.2%	1.1%	2.80	3.52	—
2016	17	ROK RAW	DSL Red Sox 2	14	14	61	247	61	19	2	100%	4.4	24.7%	7.7%	17.0%	0.8%	2.80	2.46	—
2017	18	A MLE	Greenville Drive	17	17	77	326	74	26	3	100%	4.5	16.8%	9.4%	7.4%	0.8%	3.74	3.30	—
2017	18	A RAW	Greenville Drive	17	17	77	326	74	26	3	100%	4.5	22.7%	8.0%	14.7%	0.9%	3.74	2.70	—
2018	19	A+ MLE	Salem Red Sox	17	17	72	327	61	58	1	100%	4.2	14.4%	20.4%	-6.0%	0.4%	3.50	4.69	—
2018	19	A+ RAW	Salem Red Sox	17	17	72	327	61	58	1	100%	4.2	18.7%	17.7%	0.9%	0.3%	3.50	4.00	—
2019	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	105	450	111	42	7	100%	5.0	19.5%	10.5%	9.1%	1.9%	3.43	3.84	—
2019	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	21	105	450	111	42	7	100%	5.0	24.7%	9.3%	15.3%	1.6%	3.43	3.05	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	19	18	83	347	105	46	5	95%	4.4	24.5%	13.7%	10.8%	1.6%	2.49	3.64	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	4 levels	19	18	83	347	105	46	5	95%	4.4	30.3%	13.3%	17.0%	1.4%	2.49	3.02	—
2023	24	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	9	7	27	141	28	30	1	78%	3.0	17.1%	19.1%	-2.1%	0.8%	6.33	4.51	—
2023	24	AAA RAW	Worcester Red Sox	9	7	27	141	28	30	1	78%	3.0	19.9%	21.3%	-1.4%	0.7%	6.33	4.84	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	4 levels	11	7	23	97	20	9	1	64%	2.1	20.6%	9.3%	11.3%	1.0%	4.37	3.10	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	4 levels	11	7	23	97	20	9	1	64%	2.1	20.6%	9.3%	11.3%	1.0%	4.37	3.10	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	4 levels	11	7	23	97	20	9	1	64%	2.1	20.6%	9.3%	11.3%	1.0%	4.37	3.10	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	42	0	67	320	93	39	6	0%	1.6	25.0%	11.0%	14.0%	2.1%	5.08	3.53	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	42	0	67	320	93	39	6	0%	1.6	25.0%	11.0%	14.0%	2.1%	5.08	3.53	—
2025	26	AAA RAW	Worcester Red Sox	42	0	67	320	93	39	6	0%	1.6	29.1%	12.2%	16.9%	1.9%	5.08	3.23	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	BOS	21	21	125	528	135	56	15	100%	6.0	25.5%	10.6%	14.9%	2.8%	4.20	4.20	+1.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	BOS	20	20	119	504	126	53	15	100%	6.0	24.9%	10.6%	14.3%	3.0%	4.28	4.33	+0.8
2029	30	MLB MLE	BOS	19	19	112	474	115	50	15	100%	5.9	24.3%	10.7%	13.7%	3.2%	4.41	4.51	+0.5
2030	31	MLB MLE	BOS	17	17	105	442	105	48	15	100%	6.2	23.8%	10.8%	13.0%	3.4%	4.57	4.69	+0.3
2031	32	MLB MLE	BOS	16	16	97	409	95	46	15	100%	6.0	23.3%	11.2%	12.2%	3.6%	4.77	4.91	-0.0
2032	33	MLB MLE	BOS	15	15	89	375	86	44	15	100%	5.9	22.8%	11.6%	11.2%	3.9%	5.00	5.16	-0.3
2028	29	MLB CTX	BOS	7	7	44	186	46	20	5	100%	6.3	24.9%	10.6%	14.3%	3.0%	4.28	4.33	+0.3
2029	30	MLB CTX	BOS	10	10	62	262	64	28	8	100%	6.2	24.3%	10.7%	13.7%	3.2%	4.41	4.51	+0.3
2030	31	MLB CTX	BOS	12	12	71	300	71	33	10	100%	5.9	23.8%	10.8%	13.0%	3.4%	4.57	4.69	+0.2
2031	32	MLB CTX	BOS	12	12	74	312	73	35	11	100%	6.2	23.3%	11.2%	12.2%	3.6%	4.77	4.91	-0.0
2032	33	MLB CTX	BOS	12	12	73	308	70	36	12	100%	6.1	22.8%	11.6%	11.2%	3.9%	5.00	5.16	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		54	54	323	1365	324	150	47	100%	6.0	23.7%	11.0%	12.7%	3.4%	4.64	4.38	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	200	93	29	100%	6.0	23.7%	11.0%	12.7%	3.4%	4.64	4.38	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		150	101	515	2255	440	287	30	67%	3.4	19.5%	12.7%	6.8%	1.3%	3.67	3.79	+1.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		58	39	200	876	171	111	12	67%	3.4	19.5%	12.7%	6.8%	1.3%	3.67	3.79	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bryan Mata (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.20	25.5%	10.6%	2.8%	—	4.50	24.4%	13.7%	336	+0.30	—	—	—
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	78
Yariel Rodríguez R 2024 · 3.76 FIP	27	SP	3.76	24.9%	11.4%	2.4%	.275	3.72	24.1%	12.7%	89	-0.04	2.32	196	73
Jose Contreras R 2003 · 3.03 FIP	31	SP-	3.03	24.6%	9.9%	1.4%	.255	4.30	17.9%	9.5%	571	+1.27	2.43	1,279	73
Erik Hiljus R 2001 · 3.35 FIP	28	SP-	3.35	23.1%	6.9%	2.4%	.321	6.07	14.1%	4.4%	46	+2.72	3.35	112	73
Patrick Johnson R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	17.3%	6.9%	2.4%	.286	4.14	15.7%	6.4%	120	+0.32	3.82	248	72
Jose A. Flores R 2017 · 3.09 FIP	28	SP-	3.09	20.1%	8.7%	1.1%	.297	4.77	13.7%	3.4%	57	+1.68	2.94	237	69
Mitch Atkins R 2016 · 3.65 FIP	30	SP-	3.65	21.4%	8.2%	2.4%	.341	4.77	14.3%	6.2%	78	+1.12	3.65	215	68
Raynel Espinal R 2019 · 3.90 FIP	27	SP-	3.90	22.4%	7.1%	3.2%	.313	4.01	22.3%	12.4%	224	+0.11	2.48	507	68
Omar Bencomo R 2017 · 4.50 FIP	28	SP-	4.50	18.9%	6.3%	4.0%	.333	4.48	14.9%	10.1%	186	-0.02	3.70	381	68
Braydon Tucker R 2024 · 3.25 FIP	25	SP-	3.25	18.3%	7.1%	1.5%	.291	4.70	15.3%	6.3%	208	+1.45	3.25	314	67
Osvaldo Bido R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	28	SP-	3.86	23.8%	8.5%	3.1%	.268	5.48	18.0%	8.0%	116	+1.62	3.67	732	67
Hisashi Iwakuma R 2012 · 4.28 FIP	31	SP-	4.28	19.5%	7.7%	3.4%	.277	3.45	21.5%	17.8%	528	-0.83	3.19	884	67
Kolton Mahoney R 2019 · 3.56 FIP	27	SW	3.56	19.4%	8.8%	1.8%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	302	66
Hector Velázquez R 2017 · 3.65 FIP	28	SP-	3.65	18.0%	6.6%	2.2%	.251	4.28	16.7%	7.4%	158	+0.63	2.75	536	66
Matt Swarmer R 2022 · 5.01 FIP	28	SP-	5.01	22.4%	10.6%	4.5%	.270	5.47	16.9%	2.8%	32	+0.46	3.23	617	66
Austin Bergner R 2024 · 4.84 FIP	27	SP	4.84	22.2%	12.5%	3.7%	.325	4.42	18.7%	7.3%	107	-0.42	4.06	464	65
Brian Keller R 2022 · 3.67 FIP	28	SP-	3.67	23.6%	11.6%	2.0%	.254	—	—	—	—	—	1.89	613	65
Nate Karns R 2016 · 3.88 FIP	28	SP-	3.88	24.2%	10.6%	2.7%	.322	4.46	27.1%	20.7%	45	+0.58	3.88	299	65
Todd Redmond R 2013 · 4.14 FIP	28	SP-	4.14	23.5%	6.5%	4.0%	.266	3.57	17.0%	10.1%	170	-0.57	3.21	247	65
Asher Wojciechowski R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	28	SW	3.99	23.4%	6.5%	3.7%	.299	5.06	21.5%	13.1%	323	+1.07	3.15	678	65

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.2	108	24.2%	10.9%	1.26	4.51
Frank Lange ('10-'13, 4 WAR*)	2.5	125	26.5%*	11.1%*	1.30*	4.20*
Duster Mails ('15-'26, 4 WAR*)	2.6	129	26.5%*	10.4%*	1.24*	4.23*
Jack Bentley ('13-'27, 5 WAR*)	3.6	143	21.1%*	9.8%*	1.35*	4.67*
John Maine ('13)	3.0	99	19.5%	10.5%	1.23	4.45
Nate Karns ('19)	1.6	105	24.0%	9.3%	1.34	4.30
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	106	20.5%	9.7%	1.30	4.61