Max Castillo
P
Lehigh Valley IronPigs
Age 27
RHP
6'2" / 280 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 56 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 145136vR 127
ERA5.32
FIP5.62
K%15.8%
BB%10.3%
K-BB%5.5%
ROS IP56
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 56 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p3693.5
Whiff%
p1016.2%
K%
p1011.2%
xwOBA vs
p100.370
CH+1.3
FB-1.1
SL-1.4
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 17 | ROK | GCL Blue Jays | 13 | 12 | 50 | 213 | 40 | 16 | 2 | 92% | 3.8 | 12.8% | 9.4% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 4.14 | 3.93 | — |
| 2016 | 17 | ROK | GCL Blue Jays | 13 | 12 | 50 | 213 | 40 | 16 | 2 | 92% | 3.8 | 18.8% | 7.5% | 11.3% | 0.9% | 4.14 | 2.98 | — |
| 2017 | 18 | ROK | Bluefield Blue Jays | 10 | 10 | 47 | 200 | 52 | 7 | 4 | 100% | 4.7 | 17.7% | 4.4% | 13.3% | 2.8% | 3.80 | 3.70 | — |
| 2017 | 18 | ROK | Bluefield Blue Jays | 10 | 10 | 47 | 200 | 52 | 7 | 4 | 100% | 4.7 | 26.0% | 3.5% | 22.5% | 2.0% | 3.80 | 2.45 | — |
| 2018 | 19 | A | Lansing Lugnuts | 28 | 22 | 131 | 568 | 115 | 42 | 12 | 79% | 4.7 | 15.0% | 8.7% | 6.3% | 2.6% | 4.52 | 4.35 | — |
| 2018 | 19 | A | Lansing Lugnuts | 28 | 22 | 131 | 568 | 115 | 42 | 12 | 79% | 4.7 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 12.9% | 2.1% | 4.52 | 3.50 | — |
| 2019 | 20 | A+ | Dunedin Blue Jays | 24 | 24 | 130 | 523 | 114 | 28 | 8 | 100% | 5.4 | 16.8% | 6.2% | 10.6% | 1.4% | 2.69 | 3.22 | — |
| 2019 | 20 | A+ | Dunedin Blue Jays | 24 | 24 | 130 | 523 | 114 | 28 | 8 | 100% | 5.4 | 21.8% | 5.4% | 16.4% | 1.5% | 2.69 | 2.79 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | 21 | 20 | 102 | 441 | 89 | 35 | 12 | 95% | 4.9 | 16.3% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 3.4% | 4.85 | 4.72 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | 21 | 20 | 102 | 441 | 89 | 35 | 12 | 95% | 4.9 | 20.2% | 7.9% | 12.2% | 2.7% | 4.85 | 3.91 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 32 | 21 | 117 | 505 | 123 | 48 | 16 | 66% | 3.7 | 21.8% | 10.0% | 11.9% | 3.5% | 4.46 | 4.44 | +1.3 |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 32 | 21 | 117 | 505 | 123 | 48 | 16 | 66% | 3.7 | 24.4% | 9.5% | 14.9% | 3.2% | 4.46 | 4.01 | +1.9 |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 21 | 136 | 579 | 104 | 36 | 33 | 72% | 4.7 | 16.0% | 6.5% | 9.6% | 7.0% | 4.56 | 6.43 | -1.6 |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 21 | 136 | 579 | 104 | 36 | 33 | 72% | 4.7 | 18.0% | 6.2% | 11.7% | 5.7% | 4.56 | 5.51 | -0.2 |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 13 | 52 | 244 | 40 | 25 | 12 | 93% | 3.7 | 15.6% | 12.1% | 3.5% | 5.9% | 7.62 | 6.56 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 13 | 52 | 244 | 40 | 25 | 12 | 93% | 3.7 | 16.4% | 10.2% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 7.62 | 6.00 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | PHI | 9 | 9 | 56 | 239 | 38 | 25 | 9 | 100% | 6.3 | 15.8% | 10.3% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 5.32 | 5.62 | -0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | PHI | 9 | 9 | 55 | 231 | 38 | 24 | 9 | 100% | 6.1 | 16.4% | 10.3% | 6.1% | 4.0% | 5.42 | 5.57 | -0.7 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | PHI | 9 | 9 | 52 | 221 | 36 | 23 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 5.52 | 5.64 | -0.7 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | PHI | 8 | 8 | 49 | 208 | 33 | 22 | 9 | 100% | 6.2 | 16.0% | 10.7% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 5.65 | 5.78 | -0.7 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | PHI | 4 | 4 | 23 | 97 | 16 | 10 | 4 | 100% | 5.8 | 16.4% | 10.3% | 6.1% | 4.0% | 5.42 | 5.57 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | PHI | 5 | 5 | 31 | 131 | 21 | 14 | 5 | 100% | 6.2 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 5.52 | 5.64 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | PHI | 6 | 6 | 35 | 148 | 24 | 16 | 6 | 100% | 5.8 | 16.0% | 10.7% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 5.65 | 5.78 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 36 | 21 | 148 | 634 | 108 | 63 | 25 | 58% | 4.1 | 17.0% | 9.9% | 7.2% | 4.0% | 5.50 | 5.10 | +0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 48 | 28 | 200 | 854 | 145 | 85 | 34 | 58% | 4.1 | 17.0% | 9.9% | 7.2% | 4.0% | 5.50 | 5.10 | +0.7 | ||
| Career | — | 171 | 143 | 766 | 3273 | 548 | 266 | 118 | 84% | 4.5 | 16.8% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 3.6% | 4.39 | 4.70 | +6.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 45 | 37 | 200 | 854 | 143 | 69 | 31 | 84% | 4.5 | 16.8% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 3.6% | 4.39 | 4.70 | +1.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Max Castillo (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.62 | 15.8% | 10.3% | 4.0% | — | 5.66 | 16.3% | 5.8% | 156 | +0.04 | — | — | — |
| Nestor Molina R 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 27 | SP | 5.13 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 4.2% | .304 | 3.57 | 17.0% | 10.2% | 289 | -1.56 | 3.07 | 401 | 79 |
| Dylan Cumming R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.71 | 16.4% | 7.6% | 3.7% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 366 | 78 |
| David Griffin R 2026 · 6.04 FIP | 27 | SP- | 6.04 | 14.5% | 10.3% | 5.2% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.52 | 239 | 78 |
| Miguel Ruiz R 2028 · 6.00 FIP | 29 | SP- | 6.00 | 8.8% | 8.0% | 4.8% | .346 | 5.44 | 10.6% | -0.4% | 53 | -0.56 | 5.44 | 117 | 76 |
| Brett Gillis R 2025 · 5.10 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.10 | 15.8% | 9.1% | 4.0% | .231 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.37 | 119 | 75 |
| Bryce Morrow R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.48 | 12.8% | 7.9% | 2.7% | .316 | 5.59 | 10.1% | -0.2% | 50 | +1.11 | 4.48 | 125 | 75 |
| Dom Hamel R 2026 · 5.62 FIP | 27 | SP | 5.62 | 15.4% | 12.2% | 4.2% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 514 | 75 |
| Kris Medlen R 2028 · 4.77 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.77 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.0% | .261 | 5.16 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 173 | +0.39 | 4.66 | 261 | 75 |
| Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.13 | 11.6% | 9.8% | 3.2% | .263 | 4.14 | 15.3% | 5.2% | 167 | -0.99 | 3.84 | 272 | 75 |
| Matt Cain R 2029 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.90 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | .296 | 4.88 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 214 | -0.02 | 4.83 | 294 | 74 |
| Alex Williams R 2025 · 5.23 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.23 | 17.7% | 10.5% | 4.2% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 322 | 74 |
| Asher Wojciechowski R 2026 · 5.60 FIP | 27 | SP | 5.60 | 13.5% | 11.0% | 4.1% | .315 | 4.61 | 22.2% | 14.4% | 379 | -0.99 | 3.19 | 678 | 74 |
| Kohei Arihara R 2027 · 6.20 FIP | 28 | SP | 6.20 | 13.5% | 7.3% | 6.0% | .262 | 4.67 | 16.4% | 9.2% | 94 | -1.53 | 4.67 | 135 | 74 |
| Jair Jurrjens R 2028 · 4.46 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.46 | 10.3% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .365 | 4.29 | 16.3% | 8.4% | 54 | -0.17 | 4.29 | 125 | 74 |
| Kyle Brnovich R 2026 · 5.49 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.49 | 19.6% | 13.6% | 4.2% | .330 | 6.70 | 15.2% | 5.2% | 69 | +1.21 | 3.69 | 333 | 74 |
| Anders Tolhurst R 2024 · 6.41 FIP | 25 | SP | 6.41 | 17.3% | 10.6% | 6.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.86 | 159 | 74 |
| Alex Cobb R 2027 · 5.20 FIP | 28 | SP | 5.20 | 14.0% | 6.9% | 4.4% | .366 | 4.43 | 16.3% | 10.7% | 344 | -0.77 | 2.78 | 844 | 73 |
| Jordan Cooper R 2025 · 5.05 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.05 | 9.2% | 10.2% | 2.6% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.05 | 106 | 72 |
| Alex Blackford R 2025 · 5.71 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.71 | 14.9% | 12.5% | 4.2% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.60 | 229 | 72 |
| Jacob Turner R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.69 | 14.9% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 340 | 72 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 53 | 16.2% | 10.5% | 1.56 | 5.47 |
| Ross Detwiler ('22) | 5 | 51 | 17.3% | 9.5% | 1.76 | 6.03 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Mike Wright Jr. ('19) | 5 | 52 | 17.7% | 8.4% | 1.53 | 6.00 |
| Edwin Jackson ('19) | 5 | 75 | 17.0% | 9.7% | 1.75 | 5.37 |
| Eddie Butler ('18) | 4 | 62 | 13.3% | 9.8% | 1.49 | 5.74 |
| Dylan Covey ('23) | 4 | 73 | 15.4% | 9.9% | 1.53 | 6.14 |