Max Castillo — OGILVIE

Max Castillo P Lehigh Valley IronPigs

Age 27 RHP 6'2" / 280 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 13 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133124vR 116

ERA5.00

FIP5.23

K%16.3%

BB%7.8%

K-BB%8.5%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 13 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF5050

CTRL5050

CMD5555

K†4040

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3693.5

Whiff%

p1016.2%

p1011.2%

xwOBA vs

p100.370

CH+1.3

FB-1.1

SL-1.4

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	17	ROK MLE	GCL Blue Jays	13	12	50	213	40	16	2	92%	3.8	12.8%	9.4%	3.4%	1.3%	4.14	3.93	—
2016	17	ROK RAW	GCL Blue Jays	13	12	50	213	40	16	2	92%	3.8	18.8%	7.5%	11.3%	0.9%	4.14	2.98	—
2017	18	ROK MLE	Bluefield Blue Jays	10	10	47	200	52	7	4	100%	4.7	17.7%	4.4%	13.3%	2.8%	3.80	3.70	—
2017	18	ROK RAW	Bluefield Blue Jays	10	10	47	200	52	7	4	100%	4.7	26.0%	3.5%	22.5%	2.0%	3.80	2.45	—
2018	19	A MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	28	22	131	568	115	42	12	79%	4.7	15.0%	8.7%	6.3%	2.7%	4.52	4.40	—
2018	19	A RAW	Lansing Lugnuts	28	22	131	568	115	42	12	79%	4.7	20.2%	7.4%	12.9%	2.1%	4.52	3.50	—
2019	20	A+ MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	24	24	130	523	114	28	8	100%	5.4	16.8%	6.2%	10.6%	1.6%	2.69	3.34	—
2019	20	A+ RAW	Dunedin Blue Jays	24	24	130	523	114	28	8	100%	5.4	21.8%	5.4%	16.4%	1.5%	2.69	2.79	—
2021	22	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	21	20	102	441	89	35	12	95%	4.9	16.3%	8.7%	7.6%	3.4%	4.85	4.67	—
2021	22	AA RAW	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	21	20	102	441	89	35	12	95%	4.9	20.2%	7.9%	12.2%	2.7%	4.85	3.91	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	32	21	117	505	123	48	16	66%	3.7	21.8%	10.0%	11.9%	3.5%	4.46	4.45	+0.6
2022	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	32	21	117	505	123	48	16	66%	3.7	24.4%	9.5%	14.9%	3.2%	4.46	4.01	+1.2
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	21	136	579	104	36	33	72%	4.7	15.2%	5.7%	9.5%	6.6%	4.56	6.18	-1.9
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	21	136	579	104	36	33	72%	4.7	15.2%	5.7%	9.5%	6.6%	4.56	6.18	-1.9
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	21	136	579	104	36	33	72%	4.7	18.0%	6.2%	11.7%	5.7%	4.56	5.51	-0.9
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	13	52	244	40	25	12	93%	3.7	14.7%	10.3%	4.4%	5.9%	7.62	6.38	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	13	52	244	40	25	12	93%	3.7	14.7%	10.3%	4.4%	5.9%	7.62	6.38	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	13	52	244	40	25	12	93%	3.7	16.4%	10.2%	6.1%	4.9%	7.62	6.00	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			21	6	60	259	47	23	10	29%	2.8	18.1%	8.9%	9.3%	3.9%	5.43	4.86	-0.2
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	27	MLB	PHI	2	2	13	55	9	4	2	100%	6.5	16.3%	7.8%	8.5%	3.9%	5.00	5.23	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	PHI	26	26	156	660	111	52	26	100%	6.0	16.8%	8.0%	8.8%	3.9%	5.09	5.22	-0.6
2028	29	MLB MLE	PHI	25	25	149	630	104	51	25	100%	6.0	16.6%	8.2%	8.4%	4.0%	5.19	5.31	-0.7
2029	30	MLB MLE	PHI	23	23	140	592	96	50	25	100%	6.1	16.1%	8.4%	7.7%	4.1%	5.33	5.46	-0.9
2027	28	MLB CTX	PHI	11	11	66	279	47	22	11	100%	6.0	16.8%	8.0%	8.8%	3.9%	5.09	5.22	-0.2
2028	29	MLB CTX	PHI	15	15	88	372	62	30	15	100%	5.9	16.6%	8.2%	8.4%	4.0%	5.19	5.31	-0.4
2029	30	MLB CTX	PHI	16	16	99	418	67	35	17	100%	6.2	16.1%	8.4%	7.7%	4.1%	5.33	5.46	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		63	48	313	1329	223	111	53	76%	5.0	16.8%	8.3%	8.4%	4.0%	5.26	4.94	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		40	31	200	849	142	71	34	76%	5.0	16.8%	8.3%	8.4%	4.0%	5.26	4.94	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		171	143	766	3273	542	258	117	84%	4.5	16.5%	7.9%	8.7%	3.6%	4.39	4.66	-2.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	37	200	854	141	67	31	84%	4.5	16.5%	7.9%	8.7%	3.6%	4.39	4.66	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Max Castillo (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.23	16.3%	7.8%	3.9%	—	5.33	16.5%	8.3%	446	+0.10	—	—	—
Jared Mortensen R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	27	SP-	4.42	16.9%	7.8%	3.2%	.287	4.99	20.9%	2.1%	72	+0.57	4.42	200	86
David Hale R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	27	SP-	4.15	16.2%	6.8%	2.8%	.343	4.11	13.8%	8.1%	251	-0.04	3.30	493	85
Nestor Molina R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	27	SP	4.83	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.22	3.01	401	83
Deck McGuire R 2016 · 5.23 FIP	27	SP	5.23	17.2%	8.5%	4.6%	.287	4.05	19.8%	9.4%	277	-1.18	3.41	622	82
Anthony Ranaudo R 2016 · 5.10 FIP	26	SP	5.10	15.5%	6.1%	4.6%	.255	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	275	82
Joe Wieland R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	26	SP	4.27	18.6%	7.3%	3.3%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	3.38	270	78
Juan Carlos Sulbaran R 2016 · 4.65 FIP	26	SP	4.65	15.0%	8.9%	3.1%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	4.65	278	78
Chi Chi González R 2019 · 4.99 FIP	27	SP	4.99	16.7%	10.5%	3.6%	.302	4.55	15.3%	7.8%	225	-0.44	4.01	800	77
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	77
Glenn Sparkman R 2019 · 5.74 FIP	27	SP-	5.74	13.4%	6.6%	5.3%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	363	77
Brannon Easterling R 2017 · 4.40 FIP	26	SP-	4.40	12.7%	8.2%	2.4%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	334	77
Caleb Kilian R 2023 · 4.66 FIP	26	SP	4.66	15.4%	6.2%	3.8%	.290	3.57	21.4%	13.2%	105	-1.09	2.42	444	77
Brian Van Belle R 2023 · 5.33 FIP	26	SP	5.33	18.2%	8.3%	5.0%	.289	3.50	17.2%	12.3%	199	-1.83	3.13	556	76
Gabriel Arias R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	25	SP	4.42	13.1%	7.2%	2.8%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	195	76
Nate Long R 2015 · 4.67 FIP	29	SP	4.67	14.8%	10.6%	2.7%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	151	76
Andrew Quezada R 2023 · 5.33 FIP	26	SP-	5.33	14.4%	9.5%	4.1%	.344	4.92	12.5%	5.0%	173	-0.41	4.40	412	75
Chris Tillman R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	27	SP	4.15	16.2%	8.5%	2.4%	.290	4.85	16.2%	5.9%	316	+0.70	3.92	489	75
Josh DeGraaf R 2018 · 4.52 FIP	25	SP	4.52	17.2%	7.1%	3.6%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	3.90	320	75
Frank Batista R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	26	SP-	4.29	12.1%	8.2%	2.1%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	118	75
Nick Martinez R 2017 · 5.09 FIP	26	SP-	5.09	13.9%	5.6%	4.5%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	1,134	74

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.0	151	16.4%	8.1%	1.54	5.15
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Homer Bailey ('19)	1.9	96	18.5%	7.8%	1.34	5.56
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Cole Irvin ('24)	2.9	118	17.1%	5.6%	1.28	4.46