Rony García prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Rony García P Toledo Mud Hens

Age 28 RHP 6'3" / 200 lbs AAA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 58 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 137129vR 121

ERA4.72

FIP4.90

K%21.2%

BB%9.6%

K-BB%11.6%

ROS IP59

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 58 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5555

CMD5050

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2792.9

Whiff%

p2421.7%

p5623.3%

xwOBA vs

p100.388

FB+2.7

SL-0.8

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	18	ROK MLE	GCL Yankees East	14	12	71	287	56	13	1	86%	5.1	13.3%	5.7%	7.6%	0.5%	2.28	2.96	—
2016	18	ROK RAW	GCL Yankees East	14	12	71	287	56	13	1	86%	5.1	19.5%	4.5%	15.0%	0.3%	2.28	2.25	—
2017	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	13	76	308	56	17	4	100%	5.8	12.8%	6.8%	6.0%	1.6%	2.50	3.75	—
2017	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	13	76	308	56	17	4	100%	5.8	18.2%	5.5%	12.7%	1.3%	2.50	2.98	—
2018	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	119	510	107	28	7	100%	5.2	15.8%	6.4%	9.4%	2.0%	4.31	3.66	—
2018	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	119	510	107	28	7	100%	5.2	21.0%	5.5%	15.5%	1.4%	4.31	2.77	—
2019	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	24	130	548	129	44	16	96%	5.2	18.9%	8.9%	10.0%	3.7%	4.01	4.65	—
2019	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	24	130	548	129	44	16	96%	5.2	23.5%	8.0%	15.5%	2.9%	4.01	3.73	—
2020	22	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	15	2	21	96	14	9	7	13%	1.4	14.6%	9.4%	5.2%	7.6%	8.14	7.24	-0.6
2020	22	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	15	2	21	96	14	9	7	13%	1.4	14.6%	9.4%	5.2%	7.3%	8.14	7.39	-0.7
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	4	23	96	26	12	5	67%	3.9	25.1%	12.5%	12.6%	5.0%	3.09	5.29	-0.1
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	4	23	96	26	12	5	67%	3.9	27.1%	12.5%	14.6%	5.2%	3.09	5.20	-0.1
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	8	55	222	50	14	9	44%	3.1	23.3%	6.3%	17.0%	4.6%	4.58	4.44	+0.1
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	8	55	222	50	14	9	44%	3.1	22.5%	6.3%	16.2%	4.1%	4.58	4.17	+0.2
2023	25	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	27	2	38	186	50	25	8	7%	1.4	23.1%	12.1%	11.0%	5.3%	8.29	5.56	—
2023	25	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	27	2	38	186	50	25	8	7%	1.4	23.1%	12.1%	11.0%	5.3%	8.29	5.56	—
2023	25	AAA RAW	Toledo Mud Hens	27	2	38	186	50	25	8	7%	1.4	26.9%	13.4%	13.4%	4.3%	8.29	5.18	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			33	10	76	314	64	24	17	30%	2.3	20.4%	7.6%	12.7%	5.4%	5.35	5.28	-0.6
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	28	MLB	DET	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.2%	9.6%	11.6%	3.6%	4.72	4.90	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	DET	9	9	56	237	49	23	9	100%	6.2	20.8%	9.8%	11.1%	3.7%	4.86	5.00	-0.1
2028	30	MLB MLE	DET	9	9	53	223	45	22	9	100%	5.9	20.3%	10.0%	10.3%	3.9%	5.02	5.15	-0.1
2027	29	MLB CTX	DET	3	3	21	89	18	9	3	100%	7.0	20.8%	9.8%	11.1%	3.7%	4.86	5.00	-0.0
2028	30	MLB CTX	DET	5	5	29	122	25	12	5	100%	5.8	20.3%	10.0%	10.3%	3.9%	5.02	5.15	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		41	18	125	524	107	45	25	44%	3.1	20.4%	8.5%	11.9%	4.8%	5.19	5.07	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		66	29	200	836	171	72	40	44%	3.0	20.4%	8.5%	11.9%	4.8%	5.19	5.07	-1.2
Career	—	MLE		141	88	533	2253	394	176	68	62%	3.8	17.5%	7.8%	9.7%	3.0%	4.12	4.28	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	33	200	845	148	66	26	62%	3.8	17.5%	7.8%	9.7%	3.0%	4.12	4.28	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Rony García (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.90	21.2%	9.6%	3.6%	—	5.07	20.6%	10.7%	109	+0.17	—	—	—
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	79
Clay Condrey R 2003 · 5.41 FIP	27	SP-	5.41	14.9%	10.1%	4.2%	.303	4.07	13.1%	7.4%	29	-1.34	3.18	250	71
Omar Bencomo R 2017 · 4.50 FIP	28	SP-	4.50	18.9%	6.3%	4.0%	.333	4.48	14.9%	10.1%	186	-0.02	3.70	381	71
Dustin Nippert R 2009 · 4.09 FIP	28	SP-	4.09	18.0%	9.7%	2.3%	.271	4.49	17.9%	6.1%	57	+0.40	3.83	268	70
Todd Redmond R 2013 · 4.14 FIP	28	SP-	4.14	23.5%	6.5%	4.0%	.266	3.57	17.0%	10.1%	170	-0.57	3.21	247	69
David Griffin R 2023 · 5.83 FIP	27	SP-	5.83	14.2%	9.2%	5.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.43	239	69
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2017 · 4.61 FIP	27	SW	4.61	18.2%	10.5%	3.1%	.304	4.70	15.8%	3.2%	11	+0.09	3.22	242	68
Patrick Johnson R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	17.3%	6.9%	2.4%	.286	4.14	15.7%	6.4%	120	+0.32	3.82	248	68
Zach Stewart R 2015 · 4.43 FIP	28	SP-	4.43	14.4%	8.3%	2.7%	.322	5.17	11.7%	2.1%	51	+0.74	4.27	194	68
Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	20.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.309	3.40	21.6%	13.7%	145	-0.31	1.85	254	67
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	67
Raynel Espinal R 2019 · 3.90 FIP	27	SP-	3.90	22.4%	7.1%	3.2%	.313	4.01	22.3%	12.4%	224	+0.11	2.48	507	66
Matt Swarmer R 2022 · 5.01 FIP	28	SP-	5.01	22.4%	10.6%	4.5%	.270	5.47	16.9%	2.8%	32	+0.46	3.23	617	66
Hisashi Iwakuma R 2012 · 4.28 FIP	31	SP-	4.28	19.5%	7.7%	3.4%	.277	3.45	21.5%	17.8%	528	-0.83	3.19	884	66
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	65
Kyle Snyder R 2006 · 4.47 FIP	28	SP-	4.47	19.9%	5.9%	4.2%	.373	4.83	16.9%	4.5%	54	+0.36	3.80	236	65
Chris Ellis R 2021 · 5.41 FIP	28	SP	5.41	19.6%	11.5%	4.6%	.274	6.15	12.2%	-0.9%	64	+0.74	3.84	780	65
Tristan Stevens R 2023 · 4.14 FIP	25	SW	4.14	17.3%	8.2%	2.7%	.411	3.68	15.0%	7.7%	91	-0.46	3.68	126	65
Eddie Bonine R 2009 · 5.60 FIP	28	SW	5.60	13.1%	7.6%	4.8%	.306	4.54	8.6%	2.0%	68	-1.06	4.40	129	65
Chris Kachmar R 2023 · 4.82 FIP	26	SW	4.82	20.5%	7.8%	4.5%	.319	4.65	18.4%	7.3%	248	-0.17	4.29	360	65

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.2	49	20.7%	9.1%	1.64	5.01
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.3	53	23.0%	8.3%	1.61	5.21
Drew VerHagen ('23)	1.4	47	19.1%	9.4%	1.37	4.98
Josh Osich ('21)	1.1	55	20.7%	9.0%	1.84	5.02
Scott Proctor ('11)	1.7	57	19.0%	10.9%	1.52	4.78
Adam Morgan ('21)	1.8	62	20.8%	7.2%	1.58	4.80
A.J. Cole ('21)	1.0	41	23.0%	9.1%	1.71	4.51