Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 17 | ROK | DSL Yankees 2 | 12 | 12 | 48 | 193 | 61 | 32 | 1 | 100% | 4.0 | 21.5% | 20.7% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 2.61 | 4.31 | — |
| 2016 | 17 | ROK | DSL Yankees 2 | 12 | 12 | 48 | 193 | 61 | 32 | 1 | 100% | 4.0 | 31.6% | 16.6% | 15.0% | 0.5% | 2.61 | 2.83 | — |
| 2017 | 18 | ROK | Pulaski Yankees | 13 | 10 | 60 | 232 | 85 | 18 | 7 | 77% | 4.6 | 24.9% | 9.7% | 15.2% | 4.2% | 3.30 | 4.54 | — |
| 2017 | 18 | ROK | Pulaski Yankees | 13 | 10 | 60 | 232 | 85 | 18 | 7 | 77% | 4.6 | 36.6% | 7.8% | 28.9% | 3.0% | 3.30 | 2.68 | — |
| 2018 | 19 | MIX | 3 levels | 14 | 14 | 74 | 296 | 105 | 20 | 5 | 100% | 5.3 | 26.4% | 7.5% | 18.8% | 3.7% | 2.55 | 3.88 | — |
| 2018 | 19 | MIX | 3 levels | 14 | 14 | 74 | 296 | 105 | 20 | 5 | 100% | 5.3 | 35.5% | 6.8% | 28.7% | 1.7% | 2.55 | 1.95 | — |
| 2019 | 20 | MIX | 3 levels | 26 | 21 | 111 | 486 | 165 | 54 | 10 | 81% | 4.3 | 27.9% | 12.1% | 15.8% | 2.1% | 4.28 | 3.42 | — |
| 2019 | 20 | MIX | 3 levels | 26 | 21 | 111 | 486 | 165 | 54 | 10 | 81% | 4.3 | 34.0% | 11.1% | 22.8% | 2.1% | 4.28 | 2.76 | — |
| 2020 | 21 | MLB | New York Yankees | 6 | 6 | 34 | 146 | 33 | 6 | 6 | 100% | 5.7 | 22.6% | 4.1% | 18.5% | 3.8% | 4.98 | 3.81 | +0.3 |
| 2020 | 21 | MLB | New York Yankees | 6 | 6 | 34 | 146 | 33 | 6 | 6 | 100% | 5.7 | 22.6% | 4.1% | 18.5% | 4.1% | 4.98 | 3.97 | +0.2 |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 24 | 99 | 475 | 104 | 72 | 22 | 92% | 3.8 | 19.5% | 16.3% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 6.82 | 5.76 | -0.4 |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 24 | 99 | 475 | 104 | 72 | 22 | 92% | 3.8 | 21.9% | 15.2% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 6.82 | 6.07 | -0.8 |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 13 | 64 | 294 | 76 | 32 | 13 | 65% | 3.2 | 21.9% | 11.6% | 10.3% | 4.9% | 6.89 | 5.40 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 13 | 64 | 294 | 76 | 32 | 13 | 65% | 3.2 | 25.9% | 10.9% | 15.0% | 4.4% | 6.89 | 4.87 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 1 | 70 | 325 | 72 | 50 | 13 | 2% | 1.6 | 19.9% | 16.0% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.50 | 5.34 | -0.5 |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 1 | 70 | 325 | 72 | 50 | 13 | 2% | 1.6 | 22.2% | 15.4% | 6.8% | 4.0% | 4.50 | 5.60 | -0.7 |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 54 | 5 | 65 | 294 | 77 | 37 | 7 | 9% | 1.2 | 23.7% | 13.0% | 10.6% | 2.5% | 6.37 | 4.11 | +0.4 |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 54 | 5 | 65 | 294 | 77 | 37 | 7 | 9% | 1.2 | 26.2% | 12.6% | 13.6% | 2.4% | 6.37 | 3.84 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Nashville Sounds | 10 | 6 | 33 | 155 | 27 | 17 | 2 | 60% | 3.3 | 15.3% | 11.5% | 3.8% | 1.2% | 5.45 | 3.90 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Nashville Sounds | 10 | 6 | 33 | 155 | 27 | 17 | 2 | 60% | 3.3 | 17.4% | 11.0% | 6.5% | 1.3% | 5.45 | 3.80 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | MIL | 22 | 22 | 131 | 554 | 112 | 75 | 16 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.2% | 13.4% | 6.8% | 2.8% | 4.76 | 5.02 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | MIL | 22 | 22 | 131 | 554 | 112 | 72 | 16 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.3% | 13.0% | 7.3% | 2.9% | 4.89 | 5.03 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | MIL | 21 | 21 | 125 | 529 | 105 | 68 | 16 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.8% | 12.8% | 7.0% | 3.1% | 5.01 | 5.13 | +0.4 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | MIL | 9 | 9 | 56 | 236 | 48 | 31 | 7 | 100% | 6.2 | 20.3% | 13.0% | 7.3% | 2.9% | 4.89 | 5.03 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | MIL | 12 | 12 | 74 | 312 | 62 | 40 | 10 | 100% | 6.2 | 19.8% | 12.8% | 7.0% | 3.1% | 5.01 | 5.13 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 52 | 30 | 202 | 867 | 175 | 103 | 28 | 58% | 3.9 | 20.2% | 11.9% | 8.3% | 3.2% | 4.98 | 4.64 | +1.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 51 | 29 | 200 | 861 | 174 | 102 | 28 | 57% | 3.9 | 20.2% | 11.9% | 8.3% | 3.2% | 4.98 | 4.64 | +1.8 | ||
| Career | — | 224 | 112 | 659 | 2896 | 661 | 369 | 92 | 50% | 2.9 | 22.8% | 12.8% | 10.1% | 3.2% | 4.83 | 4.53 | +6.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 68 | 34 | 200 | 879 | 201 | 112 | 28 | 50% | 2.9 | 22.8% | 12.8% | 10.1% | 3.2% | 4.83 | 4.53 | +2.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Deivi García (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.02 | 20.2% | 13.4% | 2.8% | — | 5.08 | 20.1% | 7.1% | 257 | +0.06 | — | — | — |
| Lisalverto Bonilla R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.60 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .304 | 4.88 | 15.8% | 3.2% | 11 | +0.28 | 3.25 | 221 | 79 |
| André Rienzo R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.24 | 15.7% | 11.1% | 1.9% | .264 | 4.00 | 19.8% | 5.1% | 74 | -0.24 | 3.58 | 200 | 78 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.13 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.7% | .315 | 5.25 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.12 | 4.13 | 115 | 76 |
| Rafael Montero R 2025 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.85 | 22.0% | 11.2% | 2.2% | .339 | 3.46 | 28.7% | 22.8% | 47 | -0.39 | 2.38 | 663 | 75 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.16 | 16.1% | 8.3% | 2.5% | .309 | 3.28 | 24.1% | 13.4% | 34 | -0.88 | 3.28 | 252 | 74 |
| J.P. France R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.64 | 24.9% | 10.9% | 4.1% | .301 | 4.41 | 18.7% | 8.6% | 205 | -0.23 | 4.11 | 563 | 73 |
| Dennis O'Grady R 2025 · 5.19 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.19 | 13.5% | 11.0% | 3.4% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.79 | 157 | 73 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.30 | 19.0% | 12.0% | 2.3% | .285 | 5.87 | 16.1% | 5.4% | 99 | +1.57 | 3.92 | 233 | 73 |
| Kanekoa Texeira R 2028 · 4.12 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.12 | 14.5% | 11.2% | 1.5% | .280 | 4.05 | 10.2% | -0.2% | 63 | -0.07 | 4.05 | 165 | 73 |
| Jose Pina R 2028 · 5.09 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.09 | 16.9% | 9.2% | 4.1% | .231 | 3.69 | 13.6% | 6.9% | 246 | -1.40 | 3.68 | 424 | 72 |
| Jacob Turner R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.69 | 14.9% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 340 | 71 |
| Drake Fellows R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.58 | 17.1% | 10.0% | 3.0% | .298 | 4.81 | 13.9% | 5.6% | 38 | +0.23 | 4.58 | 226 | 71 |
| Deylen Miley R 2024 · 5.05 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.05 | 22.3% | 17.5% | 2.9% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.07 | 185 | 71 |
| Cody Sedlock R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.18 | 20.1% | 13.0% | 2.1% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 378 | 71 |
| Jonathan Pintaro R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.11 | 24.4% | 13.2% | 2.5% | .302 | 3.12 | 26.0% | 15.4% | 35 | -0.99 | 3.12 | 187 | 70 |
| Josh Roeder R 2025 · 4.75 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.75 | 15.1% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.75 | 175 | 70 |
| Sugar Ray Marimon R 2025 · 4.08 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.08 | 12.4% | 9.1% | 1.6% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.08 | 107 | 70 |
| Mike Connolly R 2025 · 5.26 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.26 | 13.2% | 9.4% | 3.8% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.24 | 328 | 70 |
| Keyvius Sampson R 2025 · 5.21 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.21 | 19.6% | 16.4% | 3.1% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.11 | 316 | 70 |
| Noah Davis R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.87 | 18.9% | 9.5% | 2.1% | .368 | 4.57 | 19.3% | 8.1% | 148 | +0.70 | 3.64 | 560 | 69 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 129 | 20.1% | 13.1% | 1.14 | 4.88 |
| Tom Koehler ('17) | 3 | 146 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.24 | 4.62 |
| Tyson Ross ('19) | 4 | 107 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 0.84 | 4.31 |
| Yovani Gallardo ('18) | 4 | 132 | 15.4% | 10.2% | 1.18 | 4.97 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| James Kaprielian ('23) | 3 | 105 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 1.26 | 4.58 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez ('17) | 3 | 156 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 1.32 | 5.33 |