Dauri Moreta — OGILVIE

Dauri Moreta P Indianapolis Indians

+0.7 WAR

Age 30 RHP 6'2" / 225 lbs AAA Svc 4.0 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 0.6 · 2026

ERA3.79

FIP3.90

xFIP3.87

SIERA3.57

K%28.1%

BB%10.8%

K-BB%17.3%

IP53

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.6peak

2026

K†6565

FB Velo

p5194.6

Whiff%

p9032.4%

p8127.9%

xwOBA vs

p350.329

FB+0.8 (42%)

SL (57%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2015	19	ROK	DSL Reds	11	0	21	92	30	6	1	22.2%	8.2%	1.5%	1.69	3.10	+0.4
2016	20	ROK	Billings Mustangs	22	0	33	148	56	20	0	25.7%	16.9%	0.0%	1.89	3.07	+0.7
2017	21	A	Dayton Dragons	23	0	31	129	45	12	4	24.9%	8.6%	4.0%	4.31	4.29	+0.2
2018	22	A	Dayton Dragons	39	0	56	261	79	26	3	21.9%	12.0%	1.4%	6.79	3.55	+0.9
2019	23	A+	Daytona Tortugas	35	0	57	220	64	9	6	22.4%	4.7%	3.1%	2.35	3.49	+0.9
2021	25	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	46	0	57	213	62	10	6	24.3%	4.9%	2.9%	1.11	3.26	+1.1
2022	26	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	63	1	66	280	67	24	16	22.7%	8.8%	5.5%	4.80	5.29	-0.2
2023	27	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	61	1	66	277	89	32	5	31.8%	9.6%	1.8%	4.39	2.62	+1.8
2025	29	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	55	1	56	229	77	27	4	31.2%	12.6%	2.0%	2.59	3.15	+1.1
▸ 2026 Season
2026	30	MLB	PIT	53	—	53	223	64	24	6	28.6%	10.8%	2.9%	3.72	4.02	+0.6
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	31	MLB	PIT	51	—	51	215	60	23	6	28.0%	10.9%	3.0%	3.96	4.12	+0.5
2028	32	MLB	PIT	49	—	49	206	57	23	6	27.4%	11.1%	3.1%	4.13	4.24	+0.4
2029	33	MLB	PIT	47	—	47	197	53	22	6	26.8%	11.2%	3.1%	4.27	4.37	+0.3
2030	34	MLB	PIT	44	—	44	187	49	21	6	26.1%	11.4%	3.2%	4.41	4.51	+0.2
2031	35	MLB	PIT	42	—	42	176	45	21	6	25.3%	11.7%	3.4%	4.56	4.66	+0.1
2032	36	MLB	PIT	39	—	39	165	41	20	6	24.5%	11.9%	3.5%	4.72	4.82	+0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			355	3	443	1849	472	176	48	25.5%	9.5%	2.6%	3.52	3.57	+8.7
/ 200 IP	—			160	1	200	835	213	80	22	25.5%	9.5%	2.6%	3.52	3.57	+3.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dauri Moreta (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.02	28.6%	10.8%	2.9%	—	4.24	27.4%	16.4%	146	+0.22	—	—	—
Pedro Báez R 2026 · 2.89 FIP	30	SW	2.89	26.2%	8.9%	1.6%	.280	3.33	23.7%	15.4%	87	+0.44	2.29	332	75
AJ Ramos R 2026 · 3.96 FIP	30	SW	3.96	27.9%	12.8%	2.9%	.288	5.08	25.0%	8.0%	20	+1.12	2.55	266	74
Spencer Patton R 2024 · 2.83 FIP	28	SW	2.83	30.3%	12.2%	1.4%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.83	239	73
Jay Jackson R 2027 · 2.84 FIP	31	SW	2.84	32.4%	9.1%	2.4%	.272	3.57	29.4%	19.9%	41	+0.73	2.37	261	73
Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 4.06 FIP	30	SW	4.06	24.4%	11.8%	2.8%	.301	3.94	24.1%	15.2%	140	-0.12	1.69	468	72
Ryan Cook R 2027 · 3.85 FIP	31	SW	3.85	25.1%	10.8%	2.7%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	102	72
Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 2.93 FIP	30	SU	2.93	27.1%	6.6%	2.3%	.292	4.62	22.6%	14.0%	137	+1.69	2.93	176	72
Jonathan Broxton R 2027 · 3.73 FIP	31	SW	3.73	24.5%	8.2%	3.0%	.325	3.80	21.7%	13.5%	76	+0.07	3.65	137	72
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2027 · 3.38 FIP	31	SW	3.38	26.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.241	3.98	23.3%	13.2%	105	+0.60	3.38	212	70
Yennier Cano R 2026 · 3.33 FIP	30	SW	3.33	26.1%	9.2%	2.3%	.310	3.89	21.1%	11.9%	58	+0.56	2.39	332	70
Brad Brach R 2026 · 2.80 FIP	30	SW	2.80	29.6%	7.7%	2.2%	.266	3.43	23.7%	13.8%	185	+0.63	2.80	410	70
John Brebbia R 2025 · 2.96 FIP	29	SW	2.96	28.6%	8.2%	2.2%	.285	3.28	22.8%	17.4%	102	+0.32	2.96	523	69
Daniel Robert R 2026 · 3.18 FIP	30	SU	3.18	24.4%	10.2%	1.6%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	2.28	186	69
Ross Ohlendorf R 2028 · 3.33 FIP	32	SW	3.33	23.7%	7.2%	2.4%	.342	4.98	23.4%	12.7%	66	+1.65	3.33	122	69
C.C. Lee R 2026 · 3.11 FIP	30	SU	3.11	28.4%	9.6%	2.2%	.359	3.02	34.7%	25.6%	25	-0.09	2.58	121	69
Rubby De La Rosa R 2026 · 4.25 FIP	30	SU	4.25	27.7%	8.0%	4.5%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.95	281	68
Tommy Nance R 2026 · 3.87 FIP	30	SU	3.87	24.9%	8.8%	3.2%	.228	3.40	24.3%	16.7%	99	-0.47	2.11	300	68
Jake Cousins R 2026 · 3.49 FIP	30	SU	3.49	34.2%	12.3%	3.1%	.192	—	—	—	—	—	1.11	160	68
Ryan Tepera R 2026 · 3.84 FIP	30	SW	3.84	25.9%	8.7%	3.3%	.282	3.13	28.4%	19.9%	104	-0.71	2.27	445	67
Will Harris R 2026 · 3.47 FIP	30	SW	3.47	24.6%	7.6%	2.7%	.190	2.46	28.0%	22.8%	166	-1.01	2.15	315	67

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2022

Service 4.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Arb-2	$3M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2027	Arb-3	$4M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$4M		$4M	+$0.0M