Jake Mangum
LF Pittsburgh Pirates| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 28 | AAATB | 428 | .317/.360/.442 | 6 | 20 | 89 | — | .279/.313/.375 |
| 2025 | 29 | MLBTB | 428 | .296/.331/.368 | 3 | 27 | 93 | 0.7 | |
| 2026 | 30 | MLBPIT | 479 | .276/.333/.363 | 5 | 23 | 97 | 0.4 | |
| 2027PROJ | 31 | MLBPIT | 365 | .264/.315/.350 | 4 | 21 | 89 | 0.2 | |
| 2028PROJ82% MLB | 32 | MLBPIT | 280 | .257/.308/.335 | 3 | 12 | 83 | -0.4 |
Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 50 / POW 35
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 25 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 330 | 303 | 89 | 21 | 4 | 7 | 16 | 58 | 8 | 14 | 6 | 294 | 346 | 459 | 804 | 165 | 340 | 18 | 5 | 353 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | A+ | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 38 | 34 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 206 | 289 | 412 | 701 | 206 | 294 | 39 | 8 | 313 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | — | 148 | 138 | 46 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 23 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 333 | 370 | 471 | 841 | 138 | 383 | 16 | 5 | 368 | 116 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 158 | 143 | 39 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 34 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 273 | 338 | 399 | 736 | 126 | 346 | 22 | 8 | 328 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 515 | 473 | 141 | 29 | 8 | 5 | 28 | 91 | 9 | 16 | 6 | 298 | 349 | 425 | 774 | 127 | 356 | 18 | 5 | 342 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AAA | Durham Bulls | — | 428 | 398 | 126 | 30 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 73 | 4 | 20 | 8 | 317 | 360 | 442 | 802 | 126 | 373 | 17 | 5 | 355 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | — | 428 | 405 | 120 | 18 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 64 | 2 | 27 | 6 | 296 | 331 | 368 | 699 | 72 | 345 | 15 | 4 | 314 | 93 | -4 | +3 | +3 | -5 | +9 | 0.7 |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA | Durham Bulls | — | 22 | 18 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 444 | 545 | 500 | 1.045 | 56 | 533 | 14 | 18 | 473 | 170 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | — | 479 | 435 | 120 | 19 | 2 | 5 | 25 | 93 | 12 | 23 | 9 | 276 | 333 | 363 | 696 | 87 | 339 | 19 | 5 | 312 | 97 | -2 | +1 | -0 | -5 | +10 | 0.4 |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 907 | 840 | 240 | 37 | 3 | 8 | 44 | 157 | 14 | 50 | 15 | 286 | 332 | 365 | 697 | 80 | 342 | 17 | 5 | 313 | 98 | -2 | +4 | +3 | -10 | +20 | 1.4 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 25 | AA MLE | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 330 | 308 | 79 | 18 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 70 | 8 | 14 | 6 | 256 | 300 | 390 | 689 | 133 | 307 | 21 | 3 | 297 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | A+ MLE | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 38 | 35 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 143 | 211 | 257 | 468 | 114 | 266 | 50 | 5 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Mets | — | 148 | 140 | 45 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 29 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 321 | 349 | 429 | 778 | 107 | 382 | 20 | 3 | 339 | 116 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AA MLE | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 158 | 147 | 36 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 41 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 245 | 293 | 347 | 640 | 102 | 328 | 26 | 5 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA MLE | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 515 | 482 | 130 | 26 | 8 | 3 | 19 | 105 | 9 | 16 | 6 | 270 | 310 | 376 | 685 | 106 | 329 | 20 | 4 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 428 | 405 | 113 | 25 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 86 | 4 | 20 | 8 | 279 | 313 | 375 | 688 | 96 | 340 | 20 | 4 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB MLE | Tampa Bay Rays | — | 428 | 405 | 117 | 17 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 64 | 2 | 27 | 6 | 289 | 324 | 358 | 682 | 69 | 345 | 15 | 4 | 306 | 93 | -4 | +3 | +3 | -5 | +9 | 0.7 |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 22 | 19 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 421 | 500 | 474 | 974 | 53 | 504 | 14 | 14 | 420 | 170 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 30 | MLB MLE | Pittsburgh Pirates | — | 479 | 436 | 119 | 18 | 2 | 5 | 24 | 93 | 12 | 23 | 9 | 273 | 328 | 358 | 686 | 85 | 339 | 19 | 5 | 311 | 97 | -2 | +1 | -0 | -5 | +10 | 0.4 |
| 2021 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 368 | 343 | 84 | 18 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 89 | 9 | 14 | 7 | 245 | 290 | 382 | 672 | 137 | 308 | 24 | 4 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 368 | 337 | 96 | 22 | 4 | 9 | 19 | 73 | 9 | 14 | 7 | 285 | 340 | 454 | 794 | 169 | 337 | 20 | 5 | 349 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 306 | 287 | 81 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 69 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 282 | 320 | 387 | 707 | 105 | 359 | 23 | 4 | 308 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 306 | 281 | 85 | 15 | 5 | 4 | 19 | 57 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 302 | 353 | 434 | 787 | 132 | 365 | 19 | 6 | 347 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA MLE | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 515 | 482 | 130 | 26 | 8 | 3 | 19 | 105 | 9 | 16 | 6 | 270 | 310 | 376 | 685 | 106 | 335 | 20 | 4 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA RAW | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 515 | 473 | 141 | 29 | 8 | 5 | 28 | 91 | 9 | 16 | 6 | 298 | 349 | 425 | 774 | 127 | 356 | 18 | 5 | 342 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 428 | 405 | 113 | 25 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 86 | 4 | 20 | 8 | 279 | 313 | 375 | 688 | 96 | 343 | 20 | 4 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AAA RAW | Durham Bulls | — | 428 | 398 | 126 | 30 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 73 | 4 | 20 | 8 | 317 | 360 | 442 | 802 | 126 | 373 | 17 | 5 | 355 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 450 | 424 | 125 | 18 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 67 | 2 | 27 | 6 | 295 | 333 | 363 | 696 | 68 | 344 | 15 | 5 | 311 | 97 | -2 | +3 | +3 | -5 | +10 | 0.9 |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 450 | 423 | 128 | 19 | 1 | 3 | 23 | 67 | 2 | 27 | 6 | 303 | 342 | 374 | 715 | 71 | 353 | 15 | 5 | 322 | 97 | -2 | +3 | +3 | -5 | +10 | 0.9 |
| 2026 | 30 | MLB MLE | Pittsburgh Pirates | — | 479 | 436 | 119 | 18 | 2 | 5 | 24 | 93 | 12 | 23 | 9 | 273 | 328 | 358 | 686 | 85 | 335 | 19 | 5 | 311 | 97 | -2 | +1 | -0 | -5 | +10 | 0.4 |
| 2026 | 30 | MLB RAW | Pittsburgh Pirates | — | 479 | 435 | 120 | 19 | 2 | 5 | 25 | 93 | 12 | 23 | 9 | 276 | 333 | 363 | 696 | 87 | 339 | 19 | 5 | 312 | 97 | -2 | +1 | -0 | -5 | +10 | 0.4 |
| 2021 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 368 | 343 | 84 | 18 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 89 | 9 | 14 | 7 | 245 | 290 | 382 | 672 | 137 | 303 | 24 | 4 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 306 | 287 | 81 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 69 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 282 | 320 | 387 | 707 | 105 | 354 | 23 | 4 | 308 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA MLE | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 515 | 482 | 130 | 26 | 8 | 3 | 19 | 105 | 9 | 16 | 6 | 270 | 310 | 376 | 685 | 106 | 329 | 20 | 4 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 428 | 405 | 113 | 25 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 86 | 4 | 20 | 8 | 279 | 313 | 375 | 688 | 96 | 340 | 20 | 4 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 450 | 423 | 125 | 18 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 67 | 2 | 27 | 6 | 296 | 333 | 364 | 697 | 69 | 353 | 15 | 5 | 311 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 30 | MLB MLE | Pittsburgh Pirates | — | 479 | 440 | 119 | 18 | 2 | 5 | 24 | 93 | 12 | 23 | 9 | 270 | 328 | 355 | 683 | 84 | 339 | 19 | 5 | 311 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 28 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 428 | 405 | 113 | 25 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 86 | 4 | 20 | 8 | 279 | 313 | 375 | 688 | 96 | 340 | 20 | 4 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 450 | 423 | 125 | 18 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 67 | 2 | 27 | 6 | 296 | 333 | 364 | 697 | 69 | 353 | 15 | 5 | 311 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 30 | MLB MLE | Pittsburgh Pirates | — | 479 | 440 | 119 | 18 | 2 | 5 | 24 | 93 | 12 | 23 | 9 | 270 | 328 | 355 | 683 | 84 | 339 | 19 | 5 | 311 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB MLE | PIT | 100% | 455 | 421 | 111 | 17 | 2 | 5 | 24 | 84 | 7 | 26 | 5 | 264 | 316 | 351 | 667 | 87 | 316 | 18 | 5 | 300 | 89 | -6 | +3 | +0 | -5 | +10 | 0.3 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB CTX | PIT | 100% | 365 | 337 | 88 | 14 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 67 | 6 | 21 | 4 | 264 | 315 | 350 | 665 | 86 | 317 | 18 | 5 | 300 | 89 | -5 | +3 | +0 | -4 | +8 | 0.2 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 32 | MLB MLE | PIT | 82% | 342 | 316 | 81 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 65 | 5 | 14 | 3 | 257 | 308 | 336 | 644 | 78 | 311 | 19 | 5 | 291 | 83 | -7 | +2 | -3 | -4 | +7 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB CTX | PIT | 82% | 280 | 259 | 67 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 53 | 4 | 12 | 2 | 257 | 308 | 335 | 642 | 78 | 311 | 19 | 5 | 290 | 83 | -6 | +2 | -3 | -3 | +6 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 1187 | 1099 | 307 | 47 | 4 | 11 | 59 | 210 | 18 | 62 | 17 | 279 | 327 | 359 | 686 | 80 | 336 | 18 | 5 | 307 | 90 | -8 | +6 | -0 | -13 | +26 | 1.0 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 602 | 168 | 26 | 2 | 6 | 32 | 115 | 10 | 34 | 9 | 279 | 326 | 359 | 685 | 80 | 335 | 18 | 5 | 307 | 90 | -4 | +3 | -0 | -7 | +14 | 0.6 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3253 | 3030 | 822 | 144 | 22 | 32 | 144 | 641 | 50 | 149 | 46 | 271 | 315 | 365 | 680 | 94 | 332 | 20 | 4 | 302 | 90 | -14 | +8 | -0 | -18 | +35 | 1.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 605 | 164 | 29 | 4 | 6 | 29 | 128 | 10 | 30 | 9 | 271 | 315 | 362 | 677 | 91 | 333 | 20 | 4 | 302 | 90 | -6 | +3 | -0 | -7 | +14 | 0.5 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 AAADurham Bulls · 22 PAwOBA .462 → .420 (−43)K% 13.6% → 15.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.64% | ÷1.057 | ×1.200 | — | — | 15.48% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 18.18% | ÷1.030 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 11.97% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 46.67% | ÷0.956 | ×0.930 | — | ×0.982 | 44.60% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.67% | ÷0.940 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.982 | 5.78% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.380 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 176, 1B 91, 2B 88, 3B 80, K 111, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .462 → .420; ISO .056 → .051; BABIP .533 → .504. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAADurham Bulls · 428 PAwOBA .348 → .300 (−48)K% 17.1% → 20.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.06% | ÷1.014 | ×1.200 | — | — | 20.18% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.37% | ÷0.971 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 3.79% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.93% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 0.87% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.38% | ÷0.985 | ×0.930 | ×1.010 | ×0.992 | 25.90% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.23% | ÷0.994 | ×0.830 | ×1.010 | ×0.992 | 7.72% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.31% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×1.010 | ×0.992 | 0.33% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.85% | ÷1.061 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 1.21% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 97, 2B 99, 3B 80, K 103, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.010.
Result: wOBA .348 → .300; ISO .126 → .097; BABIP .373 → .340. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 515 PAwOBA .337 → .299 (−38)K% 17.7% → 20.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.67% | ÷1.040 | ×1.200 | — | — | 20.38% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.44% | ÷1.008 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 3.73% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.75% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 1.65% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.92% | ÷1.016 | ×0.930 | ×1.022 | ×1.003 | 24.32% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.59% | ÷0.955 | ×0.830 | ×1.022 | ×1.003 | 6.77% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.09% | ÷1.039 | ×0.970 | ×1.022 | ×1.003 | 2.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.31% | ÷1.031 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 0.89% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 103, 2B 91, 3B 108, K 108, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.022.
Result: wOBA .337 → .299; ISO .127 → .109; BABIP .356 → .329. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 158 PAwOBA .320 → .279 (−41)K% 21.5% → 25.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.52% | ÷1.017 | ×1.220 | — | — | 25.81% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.59% | ÷1.057 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 4.97% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.27% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 1.06% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.61% | ÷0.983 | ×0.970 | ×1.005 | ×0.988 | 26.07% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.67% | ÷0.988 | ×0.860 | ×1.005 | ×0.988 | 3.17% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.67% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×1.005 | ×0.988 | 3.01% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.83% | ÷0.895 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 1.58% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 79, 1B 97, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 103, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.005.
Result: wOBA .320 → .279; ISO .126 → .105; BABIP .346 → .328. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAASyracuse Mets · 148 PAwOBA .363 → .339 (−24)K% 15.5% → 19.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.54% | ÷0.961 | ×1.200 | — | — | 19.41% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.73% | ÷1.019 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 3.26% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.68% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.65% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.83% | ÷0.953 | ×0.930 | ×1.039 | ×1.018 | 28.73% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.57% | ÷0.951 | ×0.830 | ×1.039 | ×1.018 | 8.83% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.87% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.039 | ×1.018 | 0.89% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.74% | ÷1.033 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 1.20% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 91, 2B 90, 3B 100, K 92, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.039.
Result: wOBA .363 → .339; ISO .138 → .117; BABIP .383 → .382. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 330 PAwOBA .347 → .297 (−50)K% 17.6% → 21.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.58% | ÷1.017 | ×1.220 | — | — | 21.08% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.85% | ÷1.018 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.998 | 3.28% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.42% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 2.06% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.27% | ÷1.045 | ×0.940 | ×1.034 | ×0.998 | 21.59% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.57% | ÷1.053 | ×0.870 | ×1.034 | ×0.998 | 7.31% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.63% | ÷1.060 | ×0.920 | ×1.034 | ×0.998 | 1.46% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.86% | ÷0.995 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 2.24% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 109, 2B 111, 3B 112, K 103, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.034.
Result: wOBA .347 → .297; ISO .165 → .136; BABIP .340 → .307. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 A+Brooklyn Cyclones · 38 PAwOBA .304 → .224 (−81)K% 39.5% → 51.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 39.47% | ÷1.041 | ×1.350 | — | — | 51.20% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.89% | ÷1.006 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.978 | 5.45% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.63% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.978 | 2.08% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.05% | ÷0.957 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.978 | 19.58% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.26% | ÷0.930 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.978 | 4.59% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.028 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 10.53% | ÷0.925 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.978 | 9.24% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 91, 2B 86, 3B 106, K 108, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .304 → .224; ISO .206 → .149; BABIP .294 → .266. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).