Matt Vierling

CF Detroit Tigers

Age 30 R/R 6'1" / 205 lbs MLB HR -8% Svc 4.151 · Ctrl thru 2028 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

Overview

MLBD6040-MANArb-2FA 2029

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR
2024	27	MLBDET	567	.257/.315/.423	16	6	109	2.0
2025	28	MLBDET	100	.239/.316/.307	1	2	81	0.1
2026	29	MLBDET	291	.207/.260/.335	5	4	66	-0.6
2027PROJ	30	MLBDET	195	.249/.308/.387	4	8	99	0.5
2028PROJ	31	MLBDET	308	.245/.303/.377	6	10	94	0.4
2029PROJ	32	MLBDET	289	.239/.297/.365	5	6	89	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.5 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2028Service4.151First FA2029

2027Arb-2$2M2028Arb-3$4M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Whiff%90

Chase%90

Speed71

Avg EV55

xwOBA53

Bat Spd45

CompsCameron Maybin (age 30) · Tyler Greene (age 29) · Josh Rojas (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 10399vR 87

AVG/OBP/SLG.249 / .308 / .387

PA195

HR4

SB8

K%19

BB%7

BABIP294

ISO140

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$3M ctrl surplus

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 55 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT55

Whiff%

905.2%

xAVG

520.253

POWER50

Barrel%

437.2

Avg EV

5589.5

Bat Spd

4570.8

EYE60

Chase%

9017.9%

SPEED55

Sprint

7128.3

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 719 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

219

500

—

wRC+

105

◀L

wOBA

323

309

◀L

ISO

118

167

▶▶R

BABIP

345

281

◀◀L

21.9%

21.2%

▶R

BB%

7.8%

6.6%

◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2021

Service 4.151 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-2	$2M	+0.7	$3M	+$0.4M
2028	Arb-3	$4M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$4M	+$0.4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2018	21	A	Lakewood BlueClaws	—	204	184	54	15	0	6	10	38	5	5	5	293	347	473	820	179	336	19	5	354	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	A+	Clearwater Threshers	—	483	431	100	23	2	5	34	94	9	22	5	232	302	329	631	97	279	19	7	283	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	77	71	23	3	1	2	4	20	1	2	0	324	368	479	847	155	420	26	5	371	128	+3	+0	+0	-7	+2	-0.2
2021	24	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	236	206	51	6	1	5	24	46	3	5	1	248	335	359	694	112	291	19	10	313	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AA	Reading Fightin Phils	—	102	87	30	6	1	6	12	18	1	5	1	345	430	644	1.074	299	369	18	12	454	130	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	357	325	80	12	2	6	23	70	3	7	4	246	302	351	653	105	290	20	6	290	81	-8	-0	-1	+2	+8	-0.0
2022	25	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	95	85	23	6	2	2	10	15	0	8	2	271	347	459	806	188	309	16	11	356	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	530	479	125	21	5	10	44	112	5	6	6	261	330	388	718	127	321	21	8	322	107	+4	-1	+0	-6	+11	0.9
2024	27	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	567	518	133	28	5	16	41	121	3	6	1	257	315	423	738	166	303	21	7	325	109	+6	+1	-2	+2	+12	2.0
2025	28	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	100	88	21	3	0	1	7	24	3	2	0	239	316	307	623	68	308	24	7	284	81	-2	+0	-0	+1	+2	0.1
2025	28	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	69	60	12	2	0	2	8	23	1	1	0	200	304	333	638	133	286	33	12	294	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	29	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	291	266	55	13	3	5	19	49	0	4	2	207	260	335	594	128	230	17	7	261	66	-12	+0	-2	+1	+6	-0.6
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1922	1747	437	80	16	40	138	396	15	27	13	250	311	383	693	133	298	21	7	308	94	-13	+0	-4	-8	+42	1.7
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2018	21	A MLE	Lakewood BlueClaws	—	204	187	47	12	0	5	7	52	5	5	5	251	296	396	692	144	299	25	3	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	A+ MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	483	439	76	16	1	4	26	139	9	22	5	173	234	241	476	68	231	29	5	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	77	72	23	3	1	2	3	20	1	2	0	319	355	472	827	153	420	26	4	358	128	+3	+0	+0	-7	+2	-0.2
2021	24	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	236	214	49	6	1	4	16	56	3	5	1	229	292	322	614	93	277	24	7	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	—	102	91	27	5	1	4	8	22	1	5	1	297	360	505	865	209	331	22	8	361	130	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	357	325	80	12	2	6	23	70	3	7	4	246	302	351	653	105	290	20	6	288	81	-8	-0	-1	+2	+8	-0.0
2022	25	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	95	88	20	5	2	1	7	19	0	8	2	227	284	364	648	136	278	20	7	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	530	480	126	21	5	10	43	112	5	6	6	263	330	390	719	127	321	21	8	326	107	+4	-1	+0	-6	+11	0.9
2024	27	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	567	519	136	29	5	17	40	121	3	6	1	262	319	435	754	173	303	21	7	330	109	+6	+1	-2	+2	+12	2.0
2025	28	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	100	88	21	3	0	1	7	24	3	2	0	239	316	307	623	68	308	24	7	288	81	-2	+0	-0	+1	+2	0.1
2025	28	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	—	69	62	11	2	0	2	6	26	1	1	0	177	261	306	567	129	256	38	9	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	29	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	291	266	55	13	3	5	19	49	0	4	2	207	260	335	594	128	230	17	7	266	66	-12	+0	-2	+1	+6	-0.6
2018	21	A MLE	Lakewood BlueClaws	—	204	187	47	12	0	5	7	52	5	5	5	251	296	396	692	144	316	25	3	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	A RAW	Lakewood BlueClaws	—	204	184	54	15	0	6	10	38	5	5	5	293	347	473	820	179	336	19	5	354	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	A+ MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	483	439	76	16	1	4	26	139	9	22	5	173	234	241	476	68	237	29	5	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	A+ RAW	Clearwater Threshers	—	483	431	100	23	2	5	34	94	9	22	5	232	302	329	631	97	279	19	7	283	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	415	377	98	14	3	9	27	98	5	12	2	260	318	385	702	125	322	24	7	308	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	415	364	104	15	3	13	40	84	5	12	2	286	364	451	815	165	333	20	10	359	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	452	413	100	17	4	7	30	89	3	15	6	242	298	354	652	111	288	20	7	288	81	-10	+1	-1	+2	+10	0.1
2022	25	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	452	410	103	18	4	8	33	85	3	15	6	251	312	373	685	122	294	19	7	304	81	-10	+1	-1	+2	+10	0.1
2023	26	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	530	480	126	21	5	10	43	112	5	6	6	263	330	390	719	127	323	21	8	326	107	+4	-1	+0	-6	+11	0.9
2023	26	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	—	530	479	125	21	5	10	44	112	5	6	6	261	330	388	718	127	321	21	8	322	107	+4	-1	+0	-6	+11	0.9
2024	27	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	567	519	136	29	5	17	40	121	3	6	1	262	319	435	754	173	308	21	7	330	109	+6	+1	-2	+2	+12	2.0
2024	27	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	—	567	518	133	28	5	16	41	121	3	6	1	257	315	423	738	166	303	21	7	325	109	+6	+1	-2	+2	+12	2.0
2025	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	169	150	33	5	0	3	13	50	4	3	0	220	299	313	613	93	303	30	8	266	66	-7	+1	-0	+1	+4	-0.2
2025	28	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	169	148	33	5	0	3	15	47	4	3	0	223	311	318	629	95	300	28	9	288	66	-7	+1	-0	+1	+4	-0.2
2026	29	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	291	266	55	13	3	5	19	49	0	4	2	207	260	335	594	128	230	17	7	266	66	-12	+0	-2	+1	+6	-0.6
2026	29	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	—	291	266	55	13	3	5	19	49	0	4	2	207	260	335	594	128	230	17	7	261	66	-12	+0	-2	+1	+6	-0.6
2018	21	A MLE	Lakewood BlueClaws	—	204	190	47	12	0	5	7	52	5	5	5	247	296	389	686	142	299	25	3	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	A+ MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	483	445	76	16	1	4	26	139	9	22	5	171	234	238	472	67	231	29	5	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	415	380	98	14	3	9	27	98	5	12	2	258	318	382	699	124	317	24	7	308	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	452	416	100	17	4	7	30	89	3	15	6	240	298	351	649	111	288	20	7	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	530	477	126	21	5	10	43	112	5	6	6	264	330	392	722	128	321	21	8	326	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	567	519	136	29	5	17	40	121	3	6	1	262	319	435	754	173	303	21	7	330	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	169	150	33	5	0	3	13	50	4	3	0	220	299	313	613	93	287	30	8	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	29	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	291	270	55	13	3	5	19	49	0	4	2	204	260	330	589	126	230	17	7	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	27	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	567	519	136	29	5	17	40	121	3	6	1	262	319	435	754	173	303	21	7	330	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	169	150	33	5	0	3	13	50	4	3	0	220	299	313	613	93	287	30	8	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	29	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	291	270	55	13	3	5	19	49	0	4	2	204	260	330	589	126	230	17	7	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	30	MLB MLE	DET	100%	291	266	68	14	3	6	21	57	2	12	3	254	312	396	708	142	298	20	7	314	99	-0	+1	-1	+1	+6	0.7
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	30	MLB CTX	DET	100%	195	178	45	9	2	4	14	38	1	8	2	249	308	387	695	138	294	19	7	309	99	-0	+1	-0	+1	+4	0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	DET	100%	308	281	70	14	3	6	22	62	2	10	2	249	307	386	693	137	295	20	7	308	94	-2	+1	-3	+1	+7	0.4
2029	32	MLB MLE	DET	100%	289	265	65	13	2	6	20	59	2	6	2	243	300	373	673	129	291	20	7	300	89	-4	+0	-4	+1	+6	-0.0
2030	33	MLB MLE	DET	100%	259	238	57	11	2	5	18	55	1	3	1	236	292	357	649	120	286	21	7	290	82	-5	+0	-5	+1	+6	-0.4
2028	31	MLB CTX	DET	100%	308	281	69	14	3	6	22	62	2	10	2	245	303	377	680	132	291	20	7	303	94	-2	+1	-3	+1	+7	0.4
2029	32	MLB CTX	DET	100%	289	265	63	13	2	5	20	59	2	6	2	239	297	365	661	125	287	20	7	295	89	-4	+0	-4	+1	+6	-0.0
2030	33	MLB CTX	DET	100%	259	238	55	11	2	4	18	55	1	3	1	232	288	349	637	117	281	21	7	285	82	-5	+0	-5	+1	+6	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2778	2531	624	118	23	55	198	572	20	46	18	247	306	377	683	130	295	21	7	304	85	-24	+2	-17	-5	+60	1.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	592	146	28	5	13	46	134	5	11	4	247	306	377	683	130	295	21	7	304	85	-6	+0	-4	-1	+14	0.4
Career	—	MLE		—	4162	3793	908	174	30	81	279	924	40	100	34	239	298	365	664	126	292	22	7	293	85	-24	+3	-17	-4	+64	2.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	592	142	27	5	13	44	144	6	16	5	240	299	368	667	128	293	22	7	293	85	-5	+1	-4	-1	+14	0.5

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Aaron Hickslast yr '24 career totals — 12 seasons, 3,651 PA	5.5	3,651	109	71	231	330	383	+7	-9	11.8	12.4
/162	664	20	13	+1.3	-1.6	2.1	pk7: 13
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 10 projected seasons	4.5	2,995	61	54	249	305	382	+7	-12	6.6	6.7
/162	664	14	12	+1.6	-2.6	1.5	pk7: 7
#2Deion Sanders'89-'01 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,325 PA	3.5	2,325	39	186	254*	311*	399*	-1	-4	4.9	5.7
/162	664	11	53	-0.4	-1.2	1.4	pk7: 6
#3Heinie Mueller'20-'35 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,368 PA	3.6	2,368	22	37	249*	319*	399*	-5	-12	4.2	4.9
/162	664	6	10	-1.5	-3.3	1.2	pk7: 6
#4Leury Garcíalast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,387 PA	3.6	2,387	34	63	253	293	351	+5	+10	3.1	4.3
/162	664	9	18	+1.4	+2.7	0.9	pk7: 6
#5Danny Santanalast yr '21 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,834 PA	2.8	1,834	47	74	256	296	415	-6	-6	3.6	3.6
/162	664	17	27	-2.3	-2.2	1.3	pk7: 4
#6Willie Tasby'58-'63 * career totals — 6 seasons, 2,111 PA	3.2	2,111	46	12	247*	320*	382*	+2	-13	3.2	3.2
/162	664	14	4	+0.5	-4.2	1.0	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Matt Vierling (OGILVIE)	30	55	50	55	60	251/310/392	141	298	5	9	20%	7%	99	+0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Cameron Maybin 2017 · MLB	30	56→60	42→50	54→55	52	267/331/379	112	319	9	20	19%	8%	102	+1.5	250/328/377	127	308	12	25	21%	10%	101	+1.4	244/328/376	132	305	13	27	23%	11%	102	+1.0
✕Tyler Greene 2013 · MLB	29	47→50	50	56→55	43	235/297/391	157	308	17	24	29%	7%	93	+0.8	223/270/343	120	322	11	14	33%	5%	72	-0.7	217/259/318	101	325	8	10	34%	4%	59	-1.2
✕Josh Rojas 2024 · MLB	30	51→53	43→50	54→55	51	248/315/361	114	306	11	19	22%	9%	93	+0.8	220/287/331	111	273	11	13	22%	8%	76	-0.4	204/271/311	108	249	10	9	22%	8%	65	-0.7
✕Hernán Pérez 2021 · MLB	30	46→56	50	52→55	43	236/281/386	150	287	18	16	25%	6%	86	+0.3	231/277/354	123	294	14	20	25%	6%	77	-0.3	224/269/332	108	287	13	24	26%	5%	67	-0.4
✕Alejandro De Aza 2014 · MLB	30	55→61	46→50	52→55	48	267/326/405	137	320	13	21	20%	7%	107	+1.8	249/314/389	140	311	12	15	23%	8%	99	+1.2	242/311/378	136	306	11	14	23%	8%	96	+0.7
●Eduardo Núñez 2017 · MLB	30	55→65	49→50	58→60	45	277/315/425	148	304	16	32	15%	5%	107	+1.9	272/303/406	134	296	14	22	13%	4%	99	+1.2	266/293/388	122	289	13	18	13%	3%	91	+0.4
✕Jon Berti 2020 · MLB	30	53→62	46→45	60	48	259/328/392	133	322	12	32	23%	8%	105	+1.7	247/336/366	119	318	11	30	23%	11%	102	+1.5	268/335/372	103	335	9	39	21%	8%	103	+0.8
✕Ryan Roberts 2011 · MLB	30	47→52	45→50	52→55	51	230/299/358	127	277	12	16	21%	9%	86	+0.3	229/301/369	140	267	16	15	20%	9%	90	+0.6	227/300/361	134	261	16	13	19%	9%	88	+0.4
✕Tim Locastro 2022 · MLB	30	46→53	44→45	55→60	46	225/314/344	120	268	11	23	20%	6%	91	+0.6	211/292/333	122	261	12	24	23%	5%	80	-0.2	210/293/320	110	261	10	36	22%	5%	75	-0.2
✕Eric Campbell 2016 · MLB	29	53→56	44→45	49→50	55	257/344/380	123	311	11	14	20%	10%	109	+2.0	240/324/350	110	296	10	12	21%	9%	94	+0.9	228/312/340	112	280	10	9	21%	9%	86	+0.2
✕Elvis Andrus 2019 · MLB	30	55→61	46→50	50→60	49	269/318/403	135	299	12	16	15%	6%	103	+1.6	252/299/364	112	285	10	19	15%	6%	87	+0.4	245/297/358	113	280	10	17	16%	6%	86	+0.2
✕Drew Stubbs 2015 · MLB	30	50→57	48→50	57→60	44	245/305/392	146	336	16	24	30%	8%	97	+1.1	222/297/354	132	325	14	22	33%	9%	85	+0.2	197/281/304	107	299	11	23	35%	10%	66	-0.5
✕Garrett Hampson 2024 · MLB	29	53→57	42→45	56→60	47	250/314/358	108	326	8	19	25%	8%	92	+0.7	226/286/314	88	309	5	16	26%	7%	71	-0.8	207/251/282	75	285	3	16	27%	5%	48	-1.1
✕Angel Berroa 2005 · MLB	28	54→56	46→50	53→50	44	264/312/402	139	297	12	16	16%	4%	101	+1.4	252/289/364	112	289	11	8	17%	4%	84	+0.1	244/286/384	140	291	15	5	21%	4%	86	+0.2
✕Jonathan Villar 2021 · MLB	30	52→60	47→50	58→65	48	255/320/390	135	325	15	34	25%	8%	101	+1.4	243/303/389	146	311	16	21	26%	8%	95	+0.9	240/299/387	148	306	17	20	26%	7%	93	+0.6
✕Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2024 · MLB	29	53→58	40	52→55	49	253/307/341	88	291	8	21	16%	6%	85	+0.2	255/302/350	95	298	8	18	17%	5%	85	+0.2	256/301/341	85	300	6	19	16%	5%	83	+0.1
✕Greg Allen 2023 · MLB	30	51→57	43→45	60→65	45	240/329/356	116	317	10	34	26%	7%	99	+1.2	217/305/332	115	286	9	35	26%	7%	84	+0.1	203/292/312	108	273	8	40	26%	6%	73	-0.2
✕Pokey Reese 2003 · MLB	30	50→54	42→45	56→55	50	244/302/352	109	281	9	22	17%	7%	86	+0.3	229/285/325	96	282	8	16	21%	7%	73	-0.6	212/260/280	69	271	6	19	23%	6%	53	-0.7
✕Miguel Cairo 2005 · MLB	31	54→58	44→45	52→55	47	259/312/382	123	282	10	12	13%	5%	97	+1.1	244/293/336	92	271	5	21	12%	5%	78	-0.3	247/304/364	118	270	11	10	13%	6%	89	+0.2
✕Pablo Ozuna 2005 · MLB	30	48	45→40	54→55	50	236/302/361	125	262	12	15	16%	7%	88	+0.5	266/310/358	92	295	6	23	12%	5%	89	+0.5	288/324/371	83	316	3	24	10%	3%	98	+0.3

Matt Vierling

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps