Nolan Watson

P El Paso Chihuahuas

Age 30 RHP 6'2" / 195 lbs AAA peak 0.2 · 2027

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%20%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	25	AASD	29	17	91	5.84	3.69	22.0%	10.8%	—	K 17.8% · BB 11.9% · FIP 4.51
2023	26	MIX2 levels	26	23	126	5.21	4.93	15.1%	9.1%	—	K 12.6% · BB 8.9% · FIP 5.39
2024	27	AAASD	8	8	36	6.81	6.07	23.8%	8.1%	—	K 20.4% · BB 7.3% · FIP 6.15
2025	28	No MLB games played
2026	29	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	30	MLBSD	5	5	29	4.27	4.27	23.3%	7.9%	0.4
2028PROJ47% MLB	31	MLBSD	10	10	58	4.38	4.46	22.8%	8.2%	0.6
2029PROJ65% MLB	32	MLBSD	11	11	68	4.55	4.67	22.3%	8.6%	0.6

Next 3 projected WAR 1.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsAustin Bibens-Dirkx (age 30) · Fabio Castillo (age 28) · Jarrett Grube (age 33)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114106vR 98

ERA4.27

FIP4.27

K%23.3%

BB%7.9%

K-BB%15.5%

Proj IP146

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 146 IP

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	18	ROK MLE	Burlington Royals	11	11	29	137	16	11	2	100%	2.7	7.9%	10.0%	-2.1%	2.0%	4.91	4.82	—
2015	18	ROK RAW	Burlington Royals	11	11	29	137	16	11	2	100%	2.7	11.7%	8.0%	3.6%	1.5%	4.91	4.02	—
2016	19	A MLE	Lexington Legends	24	24	96	460	60	44	19	100%	4.0	9.7%	11.3%	-1.6%	4.1%	7.57	5.95	—
2016	19	A RAW	Lexington Legends	24	24	96	460	60	44	19	100%	4.0	13.0%	9.6%	3.5%	4.1%	7.57	5.79	—
2017	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	18	85	420	53	40	8	82%	3.8	9.2%	11.4%	-2.2%	2.3%	7.87	5.04	—
2017	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	18	85	420	53	40	8	82%	3.8	12.6%	9.5%	3.1%	1.9%	7.87	4.49	—
2018	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	125	575	93	47	14	100%	5.2	12.1%	9.5%	2.6%	3.3%	5.24	5.12	—
2018	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	125	575	93	47	14	100%	5.2	16.2%	8.2%	8.0%	2.4%	5.24	4.19	—
2019	22	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	1	1	4	20	3	1	0	100%	4.3	15.0%	5.0%	10.0%	0.0%	0.00	2.47	—
2019	22	A+ RAW	Wilmington Blue Rocks	1	1	4	20	3	1	0	100%	4.3	15.0%	5.0%	10.0%	0.0%	0.00	2.41	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	7	76	355	46	34	12	25%	2.7	10.6%	10.9%	-0.3%	4.8%	6.30	6.21	—
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	7	76	355	46	34	12	25%	2.7	13.0%	9.6%	3.4%	3.4%	6.30	5.29	—
2022	25	AA MLE	San Antonio Missions	29	17	91	427	94	46	8	59%	3.1	17.8%	11.9%	6.0%	2.6%	5.84	4.51	—
2022	25	AA RAW	San Antonio Missions	29	17	91	427	94	46	8	59%	3.1	22.0%	10.8%	11.2%	1.9%	5.84	3.69	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	23	126	563	85	51	19	88%	4.8	12.6%	8.9%	3.7%	4.0%	5.21	5.39	—
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	23	126	563	85	51	19	88%	4.8	15.1%	9.1%	6.0%	3.4%	5.21	4.93	—
2024	27	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	8	8	36	160	38	13	11	100%	4.5	20.4%	7.3%	13.1%	7.0%	6.81	6.15	—
2024	27	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	8	8	36	160	38	13	11	100%	4.5	20.4%	7.3%	13.1%	7.0%	6.81	6.15	—
2024	27	AAA RAW	El Paso Chihuahuas	8	8	36	160	38	13	11	100%	4.5	23.8%	8.1%	15.6%	6.9%	6.81	6.07	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	SD	5	5	29	122	29	10	4	100%	5.8	23.3%	7.9%	15.5%	3.2%	4.27	4.27	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	SD	20	20	122	516	118	42	18	100%	6.1	22.8%	8.2%	14.6%	3.4%	4.38	4.46	+1.3
2029	32	MLB MLE	SD	18	18	106	447	100	38	16	100%	5.9	22.3%	8.6%	13.7%	3.6%	4.55	4.67	+0.9
2030	33	MLB MLE	SD	15	15	92	387	84	35	15	100%	6.1	21.8%	9.0%	12.8%	3.9%	4.75	4.90	+0.5
2031	34	MLB MLE	SD	13	13	78	328	70	31	14	100%	6.0	21.2%	9.4%	11.8%	4.1%	4.99	5.16	+0.2
2028	31	MLB CTX	SD	10	10	58	245	56	20	8	100%	5.8	22.8%	8.2%	14.6%	3.4%	4.38	4.46	+0.6
2029	32	MLB CTX	SD	11	11	68	287	64	25	10	100%	6.2	22.3%	8.6%	13.7%	3.6%	4.55	4.67	+0.6
2030	33	MLB CTX	SD	12	12	69	291	63	26	11	100%	5.8	21.8%	9.0%	12.8%	3.9%	4.75	4.90	+0.4
2031	34	MLB CTX	SD	9	9	55	232	49	22	10	100%	6.1	21.2%	9.4%	11.8%	4.1%	4.99	5.16	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		42	42	251	1060	234	93	40	100%	6.0	22.0%	8.8%	13.3%	3.8%	4.66	4.42	+2.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	186	74	32	100%	6.0	22.0%	8.8%	13.3%	3.8%	4.66	4.42	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		173	133	668	3117	384	320	113	77%	3.9	12.3%	10.3%	2.0%	3.6%	6.14	5.34	+3.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	40	200	933	115	96	34	77%	3.9	12.3%	10.3%	2.0%	3.6%	6.14	5.34	+1.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 36 IPFIP 5.90 → 6.15 (+0.26)K% 23.8% → 20.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.75%	—	×0.860	20.42%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.12%	—	×0.900	7.31%
HR / BF /BF	6.88%	÷1.078	×1.100	7.02%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 116).

Result: FIP 5.90 → 6.15, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 62 IPFIP 5.34 → 5.50 (+0.15)K% 15.1% → 13.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.07%	—	×0.860	12.96%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.93%	—	×0.900	8.94%
HR / BF /BF	4.11%	÷1.052	×1.100	4.30%

Result: FIP 5.34 → 5.50, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AASan Antonio Missions · 64 IPFIP 4.27 → 5.27 (+1.00)K% 15.1% → 12.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.13%	—	×0.810	12.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.12%	—	×1.100	8.93%
HR / BF /BF	2.58%	÷0.820	×1.200	3.78%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 64).

Result: FIP 4.27 → 5.27, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AASan Antonio Missions · 91 IPFIP 3.63 → 4.51 (+0.88)K% 22.0% → 17.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.01%	—	×0.810	17.83%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.77%	—	×1.100	11.85%
HR / BF /BF	1.87%	÷0.870	×1.200	2.58%

Result: FIP 3.63 → 4.51, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 68 IPFIP 5.35 → 6.21 (+0.87)K% 13.1% → 10.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	13.06%	—	×0.810	10.58%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.87%	—	×1.100	10.86%
HR / BF /BF	3.82%	÷0.957	×1.200	4.79%

Result: FIP 5.35 → 6.21, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Quad Cities River Bandits · 7 IPFIP 3.00 → 3.37 (+0.38)K% 12.2% → 9.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	12.20%	—	×0.770	9.39%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.32%	—	×1.150	8.41%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.013	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 103).

Result: FIP 3.00 → 3.37, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 4 IPFIP 2.47 → 2.85 (+0.39)K% 15.0% → 11.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.00%	—	×0.770	11.55%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.00%	—	×1.150	5.75%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.884	×1.250	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.47 → 2.85, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 ALexington Legends · 67 IPFIP 3.81 → 4.76 (+0.95)K% 19.7% → 14.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.75%	—	×0.740	14.61%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.58%	—	×1.180	7.77%
HR / BF /BF	2.82%	÷1.051	×1.300	3.49%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 110).

Result: FIP 3.81 → 4.76, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nolan Watson (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.2%	—	4.66	22.3%	13.8%	320	+0.39	—	—	—
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2015 · 3.97 FIP	30	SP	3.97	17.4%	7.1%	2.6%	.315	4.94	15.9%	8.7%	305	+0.97	3.97	567	72
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	71
Jarrett Grube R 2015 · 3.75 FIP	33	SP	3.75	18.7%	4.2%	3.1%	.285	4.57	17.3%	9.6%	253	+0.82	3.75	393	70
Tim Adleman R 2017 · 5.35 FIP	29	SP-	5.35	20.3%	9.4%	5.1%	.276	4.30	22.8%	15.0%	117	-1.05	3.63	605	70
Hisashi Iwakuma R 2012 · 4.28 FIP	31	SP-	4.28	19.5%	7.7%	3.4%	.277	3.45	21.5%	17.8%	528	-0.83	3.19	884	70
Yariel Rodríguez R 2024 · 3.76 FIP	27	SP	3.76	24.9%	11.4%	2.4%	.275	3.72	24.1%	12.7%	89	-0.04	2.32	196	69
Bruce Billings R 2015 · 3.09 FIP	29	SP-	3.09	15.6%	5.6%	1.1%	.309	—	—	—	—	—	3.09	121	69
Chris Bassitt R 2019 · 4.20 FIP	30	SP	4.20	23.0%	7.7%	3.8%	.258	3.35	23.2%	16.9%	402	-0.85	2.92	1,596	67
Raynel Espinal R 2022 · 4.41 FIP	30	SP-	4.41	23.9%	10.5%	3.6%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	2.48	507	67
Jorge Campillo R 2008 · 3.93 FIP	29	SP-	3.93	16.3%	5.5%	2.8%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	172	67
Mitch Atkins R 2016 · 3.65 FIP	30	SP-	3.65	21.4%	8.2%	2.4%	.341	4.77	14.3%	6.2%	78	+1.12	3.65	215	67
Jose Samayoa R 2019 · 4.05 FIP	29	SP	4.05	19.4%	7.0%	3.1%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	262	67
Travis Driskill R 2002 · 4.95 FIP	30	SP-	4.95	13.2%	8.0%	3.6%	.291	4.26	15.3%	12.0%	48	-0.69	4.26	181	65
Scott Richmond R 2009 · 5.11 FIP	29	SP	5.11	19.2%	9.5%	4.4%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	166	64
Aaron Wilkerson R 2019 · 4.67 FIP	30	SP-	4.67	20.9%	9.8%	3.8%	.291	3.33	24.6%	19.0%	112	-1.34	2.75	902	64
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	63
Merrill Kelly R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	30	SP	4.41	20.3%	6.8%	4.0%	.289	3.83	21.1%	14.8%	390	-0.58	3.60	1,170	63
Tiago Da Silva R 2015 · 3.10 FIP	30	SW	3.10	19.6%	4.5%	2.0%	.278	2.38	21.4%	18.5%	98	-0.72	2.21	287	63
Kodai Senga R 2023 · 3.40 FIP	30	SP	3.40	29.1%	11.1%	2.5%	.274	4.52	23.4%	10.8%	186	+1.12	3.40	352	63
Juan Delgadillo R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	32	SP	4.54	15.5%	7.2%	3.3%	.316	4.47	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.07	4.47	143	63

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.7	109	22.4%	8.5%	1.39	4.53
Chuck Cary ('85-'93, 3 WAR*)	2.1	68	24.6%*	8.7%*	1.45*	4.41*
Mark Leiter ('90-'01, 5 WAR*)	5.9	118	20.7%*	7.8%*	1.36*	4.61*
Rubby De La Rosa ('17)	2.1	105	19.6%	8.6%	1.32	4.49
Bob Johnson ('69-'77, 6 WAR*)	3.5	115	23.4%*	8.9%*	1.49*	4.12*
Chris Narveson ('16)	2.2	109	19.4%	8.6%	1.20	4.71
Félix Peña ('21)	1.3	65	23.9%	8.5%	1.35	4.66