Nolan Watson
P
El Paso Chihuahuas
Age 29
RHP
6'2" / 195 lbs
AAA
peak 0.2 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 34 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129120vR 111
ERA4.87
FIP4.87
K%20.7%
BB%9.2%
K-BB%11.5%
ROS IP34
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 34 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 18 | ROK | Burlington Royals | 11 | 11 | 29 | 137 | 16 | 11 | 2 | 100% | 2.7 | 7.9% | 10.0% | -2.1% | 2.0% | 4.91 | 4.82 | — |
| 2015 | 18 | ROK | Burlington Royals | 11 | 11 | 29 | 137 | 16 | 11 | 2 | 100% | 2.7 | 11.7% | 8.0% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 4.91 | 4.02 | — |
| 2016 | 19 | A | Lexington Legends | 24 | 24 | 96 | 460 | 60 | 44 | 19 | 100% | 4.0 | 9.7% | 11.3% | -1.6% | 3.3% | 7.57 | 5.52 | — |
| 2016 | 19 | A | Lexington Legends | 24 | 24 | 96 | 460 | 60 | 44 | 19 | 100% | 4.0 | 13.0% | 9.6% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 7.57 | 5.79 | — |
| 2017 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 18 | 85 | 420 | 53 | 40 | 8 | 82% | 3.8 | 9.2% | 11.4% | -2.2% | 2.2% | 7.87 | 4.97 | — |
| 2017 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 18 | 85 | 420 | 53 | 40 | 8 | 82% | 3.8 | 12.6% | 9.5% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 7.87 | 4.49 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 24 | 125 | 575 | 93 | 47 | 14 | 100% | 5.2 | 12.1% | 9.5% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 5.24 | 5.39 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 24 | 125 | 575 | 93 | 47 | 14 | 100% | 5.2 | 16.2% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 2.4% | 5.24 | 4.19 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | 1 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 4.3 | 15.0% | 5.0% | 10.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 2.47 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | 1 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 4.3 | 15.0% | 5.0% | 10.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 2.41 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 7 | 76 | 355 | 46 | 34 | 12 | 25% | 2.7 | 10.6% | 10.9% | -0.3% | 5.0% | 6.30 | 6.34 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 7 | 76 | 355 | 46 | 34 | 12 | 25% | 2.7 | 13.0% | 9.6% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 6.30 | 5.29 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA | San Antonio Missions | 29 | 17 | 91 | 427 | 94 | 46 | 8 | 59% | 3.1 | 17.8% | 11.9% | 6.0% | 3.0% | 5.84 | 4.76 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA | San Antonio Missions | 29 | 17 | 91 | 427 | 94 | 46 | 8 | 59% | 3.1 | 22.0% | 10.8% | 11.2% | 1.9% | 5.84 | 3.69 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 23 | 126 | 563 | 85 | 51 | 19 | 88% | 4.8 | 12.8% | 9.7% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 5.21 | 5.70 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 23 | 126 | 563 | 85 | 51 | 19 | 88% | 4.8 | 15.1% | 9.1% | 6.0% | 3.4% | 5.21 | 4.93 | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | 8 | 8 | 36 | 160 | 38 | 13 | 11 | 100% | 4.5 | 20.9% | 8.5% | 12.4% | 6.5% | 6.81 | 6.01 | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | 8 | 8 | 36 | 160 | 38 | 13 | 11 | 100% | 4.5 | 23.8% | 8.1% | 15.6% | 6.9% | 6.81 | 6.07 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | SD | 6 | 6 | 34 | 144 | 30 | 13 | 5 | 100% | 5.7 | 20.7% | 9.2% | 11.5% | 3.6% | 4.87 | 4.87 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | SD | 5 | 5 | 32 | 135 | 28 | 13 | 5 | 100% | 6.4 | 20.6% | 9.5% | 11.1% | 3.7% | 4.92 | 4.99 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | SD | 5 | 5 | 30 | 126 | 26 | 12 | 5 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.4% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 3.9% | 5.04 | 5.14 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | SD | 2 | 2 | 12 | 51 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.6% | 9.5% | 11.1% | 3.7% | 4.92 | 4.99 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | SD | 3 | 3 | 16 | 68 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 100% | 5.3 | 20.4% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 3.9% | 5.04 | 5.14 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 5 | 5 | 28 | 119 | 24 | 12 | 5 | 100% | 5.6 | 20.5% | 9.7% | 10.8% | 3.8% | 4.99 | 4.70 | -0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 170 | 85 | 35 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.5% | 9.7% | 10.8% | 3.8% | 4.99 | 4.70 | +1.6 | ||
| Career | — | 173 | 133 | 668 | 3117 | 386 | 326 | 116 | 77% | 3.9 | 12.4% | 10.5% | 1.9% | 3.7% | 6.14 | 5.42 | -0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 52 | 40 | 200 | 933 | 115 | 98 | 35 | 77% | 3.9 | 12.4% | 10.5% | 1.9% | 3.7% | 6.14 | 5.42 | -0.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Nolan Watson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.87 | 20.7% | 9.2% | 3.6% | — | 5.06 | 20.5% | 10.8% | 62 | +0.19 | — | — | — |
| Zack Segovia R 2029 · 5.00 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.00 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .314 | 3.41 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.59 | 3.41 | 144 | 78 |
| Fabio Castillo R 2025 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.00 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 78 |
| Hector Noesí R 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 74 |
| Matt Cain R 2027 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.90 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | .296 | 4.88 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 214 | -0.02 | 4.83 | 294 | 74 |
| Reinier Roibal R 2027 · 4.86 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.86 | 17.5% | 11.8% | 3.2% | .426 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.07 | 133 | 73 |
| Trevor Cahill R 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.10 | 22.8% | 11.5% | 4.5% | .321 | 4.41 | 21.3% | 11.7% | 251 | -0.69 | 3.33 | 556 | 73 |
| Kris Medlen R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.77 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.0% | .261 | 5.16 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 173 | +0.39 | 4.66 | 261 | 72 |
| Ariel Peña R 2025 · 3.93 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.93 | 22.5% | 12.0% | 2.2% | .304 | 5.94 | 19.9% | -5.7% | 21 | +2.01 | 3.91 | 223 | 70 |
| Connor Schultz R 2024 · 4.85 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.85 | 21.5% | 10.9% | 4.0% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 171 | 70 |
| Hiram Burgos R 2026 · 5.14 FIP | 29 | SP | 5.14 | 19.3% | 7.5% | 4.9% | .351 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 355 | 70 |
| Yohan Pino R 2028 · 3.95 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.95 | 17.8% | 5.8% | 2.9% | .312 | 5.48 | 15.2% | 11.6% | 35 | +1.53 | 3.95 | 133 | 67 |
| David Griffin R 2024 · 6.04 FIP | 27 | SP- | 6.04 | 14.5% | 10.3% | 5.2% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.52 | 239 | 66 |
| Mat Latos R 2026 · 5.79 FIP | 29 | SP | 5.79 | 16.8% | 11.2% | 4.9% | .309 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 244 | 66 |
| Kohei Arihara R 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.67 | 16.4% | 7.2% | 3.7% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.67 | 135 | 66 |
| Andrew Triggs R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.57 | 23.6% | 9.9% | 4.0% | .263 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.66 | 242 | 65 |
| Tyler Cloyd R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.89 | 17.6% | 12.4% | 1.3% | .211 | 4.90 | 16.9% | 9.7% | 230 | +1.01 | 3.89 | 250 | 65 |
| Shawn Haviland R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.93 | 14.6% | 6.0% | 2.4% | .303 | 4.49 | 16.1% | 8.8% | 169 | +0.56 | 3.57 | 283 | 65 |
| Justin Masterson R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.06 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 2.1% | .307 | 3.76 | 17.3% | 6.4% | 196 | -0.30 | 3.51 | 269 | 65 |
| Cody Anderson R 2025 · 4.36 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.36 | 18.9% | 7.5% | 3.5% | .328 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.75 | 279 | 65 |
| Randall Delgado R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.66 | 17.3% | 7.5% | 3.8% | .342 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.05 | 290 | 65 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 32 | 20.6% | 9.5% | 1.45 | 4.94 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Alex Young ('23) | 5 | 52 | 19.5% | 8.6% | 1.61 | 4.43 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |