Nolan Watson — OGILVIE

Nolan Watson P El Paso Chihuahuas

Age 29 RHP 6'2" / 195 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 13 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.91

FIP4.91

K%18.1%

BB%7.6%

K-BB%10.4%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 13 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—60

STUF4555

CTRL4555

CMD4555

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	18	ROK MLE	Burlington Royals	11	11	29	137	16	11	2	100%	2.7	7.9%	10.0%	-2.1%	2.0%	4.91	4.82	—
2015	18	ROK RAW	Burlington Royals	11	11	29	137	16	11	2	100%	2.7	11.7%	8.0%	3.6%	1.5%	4.91	4.02	—
2016	19	A MLE	Lexington Legends	24	24	96	460	60	44	19	100%	4.0	9.7%	11.3%	-1.6%	4.1%	7.57	5.95	—
2016	19	A RAW	Lexington Legends	24	24	96	460	60	44	19	100%	4.0	13.0%	9.6%	3.5%	4.1%	7.57	5.79	—
2017	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	18	85	420	53	40	8	82%	3.8	9.2%	11.4%	-2.2%	2.3%	7.87	5.04	—
2017	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	18	85	420	53	40	8	82%	3.8	12.6%	9.5%	3.1%	1.9%	7.87	4.49	—
2018	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	125	575	93	47	14	100%	5.2	12.1%	9.5%	2.6%	3.3%	5.24	5.12	—
2018	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	125	575	93	47	14	100%	5.2	16.2%	8.2%	8.0%	2.4%	5.24	4.19	—
2019	22	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	1	1	4	20	3	1	0	100%	4.3	15.0%	5.0%	10.0%	0.0%	0.00	2.47	—
2019	22	A+ RAW	Wilmington Blue Rocks	1	1	4	20	3	1	0	100%	4.3	15.0%	5.0%	10.0%	0.0%	0.00	2.41	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	7	76	355	46	34	12	25%	2.7	10.6%	10.9%	-0.3%	4.8%	6.30	6.21	—
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	7	76	355	46	34	12	25%	2.7	13.0%	9.6%	3.4%	3.4%	6.30	5.29	—
2022	25	AA MLE	San Antonio Missions	29	17	91	427	94	46	8	59%	3.1	17.8%	11.9%	6.0%	2.6%	5.84	4.51	—
2022	25	AA RAW	San Antonio Missions	29	17	91	427	94	46	8	59%	3.1	22.0%	10.8%	11.2%	1.9%	5.84	3.69	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	23	126	563	85	51	19	88%	4.8	12.4%	8.9%	3.5%	4.0%	5.21	5.41	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	23	126	563	85	51	19	88%	4.8	12.4%	8.9%	3.5%	4.0%	5.21	5.41	—
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	23	126	563	85	51	19	88%	4.8	15.1%	9.1%	6.0%	3.4%	5.21	4.93	—
2024	27	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	8	8	36	160	38	13	11	100%	4.5	19.7%	7.3%	12.4%	7.0%	6.81	6.21	—
2024	27	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	8	8	36	160	38	13	11	100%	4.5	19.7%	7.3%	12.4%	7.0%	6.81	6.21	—
2024	27	AAA RAW	El Paso Chihuahuas	8	8	36	160	38	13	11	100%	4.5	23.8%	8.1%	15.6%	6.9%	6.81	6.07	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	29	MLB	SD	2	2	13	55	10	4	2	100%	6.5	18.1%	7.6%	10.4%	3.6%	4.91	4.91	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	SD	23	23	137	579	105	46	22	100%	6.0	18.1%	8.0%	10.2%	3.8%	4.95	5.02	-0.2
2028	31	MLB MLE	SD	21	21	128	540	97	45	21	100%	6.1	18.0%	8.3%	9.7%	3.9%	5.05	5.16	-0.4
2027	30	MLB CTX	SD	8	8	50	211	38	17	8	100%	6.2	18.1%	8.0%	10.2%	3.8%	4.95	5.02	-0.1
2028	31	MLB CTX	SD	12	12	70	296	53	24	12	100%	5.8	18.0%	8.3%	9.7%	3.9%	5.05	5.16	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		20	20	121	511	92	42	20	100%	6.0	18.0%	8.1%	9.9%	3.9%	5.01	4.72	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	152	69	33	100%	6.0	18.0%	8.1%	9.9%	3.9%	5.01	4.72	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		173	133	668	3117	381	320	113	77%	3.9	12.2%	10.3%	2.0%	3.6%	6.14	5.35	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	40	200	933	114	96	34	77%	3.9	12.2%	10.3%	2.0%	3.6%	6.14	5.35	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nolan Watson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.91	18.1%	7.6%	3.6%	—	5.09	18.1%	9.9%	265	+0.18	—	—	—
Shawn Haviland R 2015 · 3.95 FIP	29	SP-	3.95	14.6%	6.0%	2.4%	.303	4.67	16.1%	8.8%	169	+0.72	3.69	283	81
Daniel McCutchen R 2015 · 4.30 FIP	32	SP-	4.30	13.9%	4.4%	3.3%	.268	4.74	10.8%	4.9%	155	+0.44	4.30	287	81
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	80
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2015 · 3.97 FIP	30	SP	3.97	17.4%	7.1%	2.6%	.315	4.94	15.9%	8.7%	305	+0.97	3.97	567	77
Kris Medlen R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	29	SP-	4.82	15.4%	6.4%	4.0%	.261	5.17	17.1%	8.6%	173	+0.35	4.59	261	75
Tim Adleman R 2017 · 5.35 FIP	29	SP-	5.35	20.3%	9.4%	5.1%	.276	4.30	22.8%	15.0%	117	-1.05	3.63	605	75
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	74
Aaron Brooks R 2019 · 4.72 FIP	29	SP-	4.72	17.0%	7.1%	3.9%	.281	4.38	15.8%	8.8%	70	-0.34	3.71	879	73
Yohan Pino R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	31	SP-	4.13	17.8%	5.8%	3.3%	.312	5.33	15.2%	11.6%	35	+1.20	4.13	133	73
Frank Batista R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	26	SP-	4.29	12.1%	8.2%	2.1%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	118	72
Matt Cain R 2015 · 4.88 FIP	30	SP-	4.88	17.1%	6.8%	4.3%	.296	4.87	15.2%	7.6%	214	-0.01	4.82	294	72
Kyle Friedrichs R 2021 · 4.73 FIP	29	SP-	4.73	13.9%	6.2%	3.7%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	603	71
Jason Berken R 2015 · 4.34 FIP	31	SW	4.34	13.5%	6.6%	2.8%	.315	4.54	11.5%	3.2%	106	+0.20	4.34	219	71
Jesse Chavez R 2015 · 3.87 FIP	31	SP	3.87	20.2%	6.8%	2.9%	.309	4.29	22.0%	16.2%	300	+0.42	2.03	804	71
Scott McGregor R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	11.8%	7.6%	2.4%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	107	71
Jacob Turner R 2018 · 4.48 FIP	27	SP-	4.48	14.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	340	71
Luke Irvine R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	71
Nate Long R 2015 · 4.67 FIP	29	SP	4.67	14.8%	10.6%	2.7%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	151	70
Forrest Snow R 2018 · 5.14 FIP	29	SP-	5.14	19.6%	7.7%	5.0%	.282	5.53	18.8%	10.3%	28	+0.39	3.02	406	70
Dylan Axelrod R 2015 · 4.75 FIP	30	SP-	4.75	14.1%	6.6%	3.6%	.304	4.28	13.7%	7.4%	133	-0.47	4.28	251	70

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.1	137	18.1%	7.9%	1.46	4.97
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Homer Bailey ('19)	1.9	96	18.5%	7.8%	1.34	5.56
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Kutter Crawford ('24)	2.0	130	23.9%	7.2%	1.45	4.47
Cole Irvin ('24)	2.9	118	17.1%	5.6%	1.28	4.46