Casey Mize
P
Detroit Tigers
Age 29
RHP
6'3" / 212 lbs
MLB
Svc 5.0 · Ctrl thru 2026
peak 2.1 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION82 act + 52 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8980vR 70
ERA3.27
FIP3.29
K%23.8%
BB%5.9%
K-BB%17.9%
ROS IP52
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 134 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit option yr━ post-control
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p3793.6
Whiff%
p7228.8%
K%
p6725.3%
xwOBA vs
p900.274
SL (30%)
SI (11%)
CU (5%)
FB-1.6 (46%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 5 | 5 | 14 | 55 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 100% | 2.7 | 25.5% | 5.5% | 20.0% | 3.6% | 3.95 | 3.64 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 5 | 5 | 14 | 55 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 100% | 2.7 | 25.5% | 5.5% | 20.0% | 3.6% | 3.95 | 3.61 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 21 | 109 | 430 | 106 | 23 | 5 | 100% | 5.2 | 19.7% | 5.9% | 13.7% | 0.9% | 2.55 | 2.67 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 21 | 109 | 430 | 106 | 23 | 5 | 100% | 5.2 | 24.7% | 5.3% | 19.3% | 1.2% | 2.55 | 2.39 | — |
| 2020 | 23 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 7 | 7 | 28 | 133 | 26 | 13 | 7 | 100% | 4.0 | 19.5% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 5.8% | 6.99 | 5.84 | -0.4 |
| 2020 | 23 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 7 | 7 | 28 | 133 | 26 | 13 | 7 | 100% | 4.0 | 19.5% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 5.3% | 6.99 | 5.85 | -0.4 |
| 2021 | 24 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 30 | 30 | 150 | 612 | 118 | 41 | 24 | 100% | 5.0 | 19.3% | 6.7% | 12.6% | 4.3% | 3.71 | 4.67 | +1.3 |
| 2021 | 24 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 30 | 30 | 150 | 612 | 118 | 41 | 24 | 100% | 5.0 | 19.3% | 6.7% | 12.6% | 3.9% | 3.71 | 4.42 | +1.7 |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 3 | 3 | 11 | 52 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 100% | 3.6 | 7.7% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 7.59 | 5.05 | -0.1 |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 3 | 3 | 11 | 52 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 100% | 3.6 | 7.7% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 7.59 | 5.35 | -0.1 |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 24 | 116 | 506 | 95 | 33 | 11 | 92% | 4.5 | 18.4% | 6.6% | 11.8% | 2.4% | 4.27 | 3.68 | +2.3 |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 24 | 116 | 506 | 95 | 33 | 11 | 92% | 4.5 | 18.8% | 6.5% | 12.3% | 2.2% | 4.27 | 3.55 | +2.5 |
| 2025 | 28 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 28 | 28 | 149 | 627 | 139 | 35 | 21 | 100% | 5.3 | 22.2% | 5.6% | 16.6% | 3.7% | 3.87 | 3.94 | +2.5 |
| 2025 | 28 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 28 | 28 | 149 | 627 | 139 | 35 | 21 | 100% | 5.3 | 22.2% | 5.6% | 16.6% | 3.3% | 3.87 | 3.77 | +2.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 15 | 15 | 82 | 322 | 82 | 19 | 6 | 100% | 5.5 | 25.3% | 5.9% | 19.4% | 1.6% | 2.73 | 2.61 | +2.3 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | DET | 9 | 9 | 52 | 218 | 52 | 13 | 6 | 100% | 5.7 | 23.8% | 5.9% | 17.9% | 2.6% | 3.27 | 3.29 | +0.8 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | DET | 9 | 9 | 52 | 220 | 52 | 13 | 6 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.8% | 5.9% | 17.9% | 2.5% | 3.20 | 3.22 | +0.8 |
| 2026 TOT | 29 | MLB | DET | — | — | 134 | 540 | 134 | 32 | 12 | — | — | 24.8% | 5.9% | 18.9% | 2.2% | 2.94 | 2.87 | +4.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 29 | MLB | DET | — | — | 129 | 544 | 134 | 32 | 11 | — | — | 24.6% | 5.9% | 18.7% | 2.1% | 3.03 | 2.92 | +3.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | DET | 19 | 19 | 114 | 483 | 109 | 30 | 14 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.6% | 6.2% | 16.4% | 2.9% | 3.84 | 3.93 | +2.0 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | DET | 18 | 18 | 107 | 450 | 99 | 30 | 14 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.9% | 6.6% | 15.3% | 3.1% | 4.03 | 4.16 | +1.5 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | DET | 16 | 16 | 99 | 416 | 88 | 29 | 14 | 100% | 6.2 | 21.1% | 7.0% | 14.1% | 3.3% | 4.26 | 4.41 | +1.1 |
| 2030 | 33 | MLB | DET | 15 | 15 | 90 | 382 | 77 | 28 | 14 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 12.8% | 3.6% | 4.52 | 4.69 | +0.5 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | DET | 19 | 19 | 114 | 481 | 109 | 30 | 13 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.6% | 6.2% | 16.4% | 2.7% | 3.77 | 3.86 | +2.0 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | DET | 18 | 18 | 107 | 452 | 99 | 30 | 13 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.9% | 6.6% | 15.3% | 3.0% | 3.96 | 4.09 | +1.6 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | DET | 16 | 16 | 99 | 418 | 88 | 29 | 13 | 100% | 6.2 | 21.1% | 7.0% | 14.1% | 3.2% | 4.18 | 4.33 | +1.2 |
| 2030 | 33 | MLB | DET | 15 | 15 | 90 | 380 | 77 | 28 | 13 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 12.8% | 3.5% | 4.44 | 4.61 | +0.6 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 181 | 179 | 979 | 4122 | 867 | 268 | 127 | 99% | 5.4 | 21.0% | 6.5% | 14.5% | 3.1% | 3.98 | 3.85 | +17.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 37 | 37 | 200 | 842 | 177 | 55 | 26 | 99% | 5.4 | 21.0% | 6.5% | 14.5% | 3.1% | 3.98 | 3.85 | +3.6 | ||
| Career | — | 135 | 133 | 660 | 2737 | 560 | 172 | 82 | 99% | 4.9 | 20.5% | 6.3% | 14.2% | 3.0% | 3.74 | 3.81 | +12.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 41 | 40 | 200 | 830 | 170 | 52 | 25 | 99% | 4.9 | 20.5% | 6.3% | 14.2% | 3.0% | 3.74 | 3.81 | +3.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Casey Mize (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.23 | 21.3% | 5.9% | 3.3% | — | 4.15 | 21.9% | 15.3% | 320 | -0.08 | — | — | — |
| Jason Hammel R 2029 · 3.43 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.43 | 24.2% | 5.1% | 3.2% | .282 | 4.26 | 18.4% | 11.9% | 474 | +0.83 | 3.43 | 645 | 68 |
| Chase Anderson R 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.42 | 23.4% | 7.0% | 2.6% | .259 | 5.00 | 20.8% | 12.5% | 331 | +1.58 | 3.42 | 1,146 | 68 |
| Ian Kennedy R 2027 · 4.46 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.46 | 24.4% | 6.7% | 4.7% | .293 | 4.91 | 21.1% | 13.0% | 469 | +0.45 | 2.87 | 864 | 66 |
| Jake Odorizzi R 2026 · 3.16 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.16 | 27.1% | 8.1% | 2.4% | .299 | 4.25 | 19.8% | 12.5% | 225 | +1.09 | 3.16 | 1,048 | 64 |
| Mario Gonzalez R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.86 | 17.9% | 5.7% | 2.8% | .276 | 4.19 | 14.1% | 9.1% | 104 | +0.33 | 3.86 | 368 | 64 |
| Jesse Chavez R 2028 · 3.80 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.80 | 20.2% | 6.8% | 2.8% | .309 | 4.37 | 22.0% | 16.2% | 300 | +0.57 | 2.03 | 804 | 63 |
| Josh Lowey R 2027 · 3.30 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.30 | 21.1% | 7.8% | 1.8% | .311 | 2.34 | 26.7% | 20.1% | 231 | -0.96 | 2.28 | 426 | 63 |
| Merrill Kelly R 2027 · 4.21 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.21 | 20.3% | 6.8% | 3.6% | .289 | 3.67 | 21.1% | 14.8% | 390 | -0.54 | 3.54 | 1,102 | 63 |
| Charlie Morton R 2028 · 3.55 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.55 | 17.9% | 6.3% | 2.1% | .302 | 3.11 | 27.7% | 18.9% | 331 | -0.44 | 2.55 | 1,534 | 63 |
| Jose Samayoa R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.65 | 19.4% | 7.0% | 4.2% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 262 | 62 |
| Kodai Senga R 2027 · 3.40 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.40 | 29.1% | 11.1% | 2.5% | .274 | 4.64 | 22.8% | 10.3% | 164 | +1.24 | 3.40 | 330 | 62 |
| Lance Lynn R 2025 · 3.24 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.24 | 22.2% | 8.4% | 1.7% | .313 | 4.07 | 21.2% | 11.4% | 343 | +0.83 | 2.87 | 1,390 | 62 |
| Justin Verlander R 2029 · 3.51 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.51 | 21.1% | 5.8% | 2.7% | .265 | 3.18 | 29.6% | 23.4% | 648 | -0.33 | 2.24 | 1,584 | 62 |
| Rick Porcello R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.68 | 23.5% | 5.9% | 3.3% | .276 | 4.10 | 19.1% | 13.5% | 233 | +0.42 | 3.14 | 1,023 | 61 |
| Chris Archer R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.52 | 25.4% | 7.2% | 3.0% | .331 | 4.65 | 26.8% | 17.1% | 153 | +1.13 | 2.88 | 1,018 | 61 |
| Masahiro Tanaka R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.69 | 25.0% | 5.5% | 3.7% | .279 | 4.00 | 20.2% | 15.1% | 230 | +0.31 | 3.33 | 918 | 61 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez R 2028 · 3.67 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.67 | 21.2% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .302 | 4.58 | 20.6% | 10.5% | 285 | +0.91 | 3.67 | 469 | 61 |
| Mike Fiers R 2027 · 3.72 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.72 | 23.7% | 7.8% | 3.0% | .277 | 4.56 | 19.9% | 13.3% | 494 | +0.84 | 3.72 | 918 | 61 |
| Carlos Carrasco R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.60 | 25.0% | 5.3% | 3.5% | .285 | 3.03 | 28.8% | 23.7% | 472 | -0.57 | 2.67 | 1,455 | 60 |
| Jeremy Kehrt R 2026 · 3.34 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.34 | 15.2% | 5.3% | 1.6% | .297 | 4.27 | 12.1% | 3.9% | 143 | +0.93 | 3.34 | 262 | 60 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 106 | 21.5% | 6.6% | 1.24 | 4.16 |
| Jerad Eickhoff ('19) | 4 | 109 | 21.0% | 6.9% | 1.43 | 4.12 |
| Zach Plesac ('23) | 5 | 93 | 18.4% | 6.3% | 1.39 | 4.20 |
| Jordan Montgomery ('24) | 7 | 124 | 21.4% | 6.9% | 1.07 | 4.01 |
| Clay Buchholz ('19) | 4 | 102 | 18.8% | 6.8% | 1.08 | 3.95 |
| Ervin Santana ('21) | 5 | 118 | 18.9% | 7.4% | 1.22 | 3.79 |
| Alex Cobb ('23) | 7 | 114 | 19.5% | 6.6% | 1.03 | 4.14 |