Casey Mize — OGILVIE

Casey Mize P San Diego Padres

Age 29 RHP 6'3" / 212 lbs MLB Svc 5.0 · Ctrl thru 2026 peak 1.8 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION124 act + 12 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9991vR 83

ERA3.71

FIP3.71

K%21.8%

BB%6.0%

K-BB%15.9%

ROS IP12

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 136 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL6060

CMD5050

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3493.4

Whiff%

p4324.3%

p4922.0%

xwOBA vs

p740.289

SL (32%)

SI (10%)

CU (4%)

FB-1.6 (44%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2020

Service 5.645 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.5M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.2M
Totals		$0.5M		$0.7M	+$0.2M

Options · projected decision
2027	CLUB OPT	$6.2M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2028	CLUB OPT	$3.1M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	5	14	55	14	3	2	100%	2.7	25.5%	5.5%	20.0%	3.6%	3.95	3.64	—
2018	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	5	14	55	14	3	2	100%	2.7	25.5%	5.5%	20.0%	3.6%	3.95	3.61	—
2019	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	109	430	106	23	5	100%	5.2	19.7%	5.9%	13.7%	1.1%	2.55	2.78	—
2019	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	21	109	430	106	23	5	100%	5.2	24.7%	5.3%	19.3%	1.2%	2.55	2.39	—
2020	23	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	7	7	28	133	26	13	7	100%	4.0	19.5%	9.8%	9.8%	5.5%	6.99	5.70	-0.3
2020	23	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	7	7	28	133	26	13	7	100%	4.0	19.5%	9.8%	9.8%	5.3%	6.99	5.85	-0.3
2021	24	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	30	30	150	612	118	41	24	100%	5.0	19.3%	6.7%	12.6%	4.1%	3.71	4.57	+0.6
2021	24	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	30	30	150	612	118	41	24	100%	5.0	19.3%	6.7%	12.6%	3.9%	3.71	4.42	+0.8
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	3	3	11	52	4	2	2	100%	3.6	7.7%	3.8%	3.8%	3.8%	7.59	5.05	-0.0
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	3	3	11	52	4	2	2	100%	3.6	7.7%	3.8%	3.8%	3.8%	7.59	5.35	-0.1
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	24	116	506	95	33	11	92%	4.5	18.2%	6.4%	11.8%	2.3%	4.27	3.63	+1.8
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	24	116	506	95	33	11	92%	4.5	18.2%	6.4%	11.8%	2.3%	4.27	3.63	+1.8
2024	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	24	116	506	95	33	11	92%	4.5	18.8%	6.5%	12.3%	2.2%	4.27	3.55	+1.9
2025	28	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	28	28	149	627	139	35	21	100%	5.3	22.2%	5.6%	16.6%	3.5%	3.87	3.85	+1.9
2025	28	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	28	28	149	627	139	35	21	100%	5.3	22.2%	5.6%	16.6%	3.5%	3.87	3.85	+1.9
2025	28	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	28	28	149	627	139	35	21	100%	5.3	22.2%	5.6%	16.6%	3.3%	3.87	3.77	+2.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			112	110	559	2355	472	149	78	98%	5.0	20.0%	6.3%	13.7%	3.3%	4.09	4.02	+5.8
▸ 2026 season
YTD	29	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	24	24	124	504	112	30	15	100%	5.2	22.0%	6.0%	16.0%	2.8%	3.62	3.54	+2.1
YTD	29	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	24	24	124	504	112	30	15	100%	5.2	22.0%	6.0%	16.0%	2.8%	3.62	3.54	+2.1
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	29	A RAW	SD	1	1	5	18	5	1	1	100%	5.0	27.8%	5.6%	22.2%	5.6%	1.80	4.51	—
2026	29	MLB RAW	SD	23	23	119	486	107	29	14	100%	5.2	22.0%	6.0%	16.0%	2.9%	3.70	3.58	+1.9
SO FAR	29	MLB RAW	SD	23	23	119	486	107	29	14	100%	5.2	22.0%	6.0%	16.0%	2.9%	3.70	3.58	+1.9
ROS	29	MLB MLE	SD	2	2	12	50	11	3	2	100%	5.9	21.8%	6.0%	15.9%	3.1%	3.71	3.71	+0.2
ROS	29	MLB CTX	SD	2	2	12	51	11	3	2	100%	6.0	21.8%	6.0%	15.9%	3.2%	3.75	3.75	+0.2
2026 TOT	29	MLB MLE	SD	—	—	136	554	123	33	17	—	—	22.2%	6.0%	16.2%	3.0%	3.63	3.55	+2.2
FULL	29	MLB A+C	SD	—	—	131	554	123	33	17	—	—	22.2%	6.0%	16.2%	3.0%	3.77	3.62	+2.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	SD	19	19	114	483	102	30	16	100%	6.0	21.0%	6.2%	14.8%	3.2%	4.18	4.27	+0.8
2028	31	MLB MLE	SD	18	18	107	450	91	30	16	100%	5.9	20.3%	6.6%	13.7%	3.4%	4.37	4.50	+0.5
2029	32	MLB MLE	SD	16	16	99	416	81	29	15	100%	6.2	19.5%	7.0%	12.5%	3.7%	4.60	4.75	+0.2
2030	33	MLB MLE	SD	15	15	90	382	71	28	15	100%	6.0	18.6%	7.4%	11.2%	4.0%	4.86	5.03	-0.1
2027	30	MLB CTX	SD	19	19	114	481	101	30	16	100%	6.0	21.0%	6.2%	14.8%	3.3%	4.22	4.31	+0.8
2028	31	MLB CTX	SD	18	18	107	452	92	30	16	100%	5.9	20.3%	6.6%	13.7%	3.5%	4.42	4.55	+0.5
2029	32	MLB CTX	SD	16	16	99	418	81	29	16	100%	6.2	19.5%	7.0%	12.5%	3.8%	4.65	4.80	+0.2
2030	33	MLB CTX	SD	15	15	90	380	71	28	15	100%	6.0	18.6%	7.4%	11.2%	4.1%	4.91	5.08	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		183	181	981	4136	828	269	143	99%	5.4	20.0%	6.5%	13.5%	3.5%	4.27	4.13	+8.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	37	200	843	169	55	29	99%	5.4	20.0%	6.5%	13.5%	3.5%	4.27	4.13	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		144	142	702	2919	589	182	89	99%	4.9	20.2%	6.2%	13.9%	3.0%	3.84	3.85	+7.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		41	40	200	832	168	52	25	99%	4.9	20.2%	6.2%	13.9%	3.0%	3.84	3.85	+1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Casey Mize (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.17	21.3%	5.9%	3.2%	—	4.49	20.3%	13.7%	320	+0.32	—	—	—
Chase Anderson R 2017 · 3.30 FIP	29	SP	3.30	23.4%	7.0%	2.3%	.259	4.81	20.8%	12.5%	331	+1.51	3.30	1,146	81
Anthony DeSclafani R 2019 · 3.99 FIP	29	SP	3.99	24.0%	6.3%	3.9%	.268	3.98	21.1%	14.5%	220	-0.01	3.38	981	70
Matt Harvey R 2018 · 4.17 FIP	29	SP	4.17	19.8%	5.3%	3.8%	.294	4.74	16.9%	9.2%	222	+0.57	2.90	806	69
Ian Kennedy R 2015 · 4.22 FIP	30	SP	4.22	24.4%	6.7%	4.2%	.293	4.94	21.1%	13.0%	469	+0.72	2.88	864	68
Carlos Carrasco R 2016 · 3.59 FIP	29	SP	3.59	25.0%	5.3%	3.5%	.285	3.02	28.8%	23.7%	472	-0.57	2.67	1,455	68
Zack Wheeler R 2019 · 3.28 FIP	29	SP	3.28	23.6%	5.6%	2.7%	.308	2.47	26.6%	21.3%	437	-0.81	2.28	1,586	68
Andrew Cashner R 2016 · 4.59 FIP	29	SP	4.59	19.0%	9.7%	3.4%	.307	4.56	14.5%	5.4%	470	-0.03	3.64	786	67
Jason Hammel R 2015 · 3.54 FIP	32	SP	3.54	24.2%	5.1%	3.4%	.282	4.31	18.4%	11.9%	474	+0.77	3.54	645	67
Mario Gonzalez R 2016 · 3.94 FIP	29	SP	3.94	17.9%	5.7%	2.9%	.276	4.53	14.1%	9.1%	104	+0.59	3.94	368	67
Kenta Maeda R 2017 · 3.81 FIP	29	SP	3.81	25.1%	5.9%	3.8%	.273	3.24	28.7%	21.7%	346	-0.57	2.87	1,092	67
Jose Samayoa R 2019 · 4.05 FIP	29	SP	4.05	19.4%	7.0%	3.1%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	262	66
Jameson Taillon R 2021 · 4.09 FIP	29	SP	4.09	23.2%	7.1%	3.7%	.268	4.02	20.2%	15.0%	497	-0.07	3.12	1,401	66
Matt Shoemaker R 2016 · 3.29 FIP	29	SP	3.29	21.4%	4.3%	2.6%	.310	4.27	22.4%	14.0%	137	+0.98	3.17	592	66
Collin McHugh R 2016 · 3.84 FIP	29	SP	3.84	22.2%	6.7%	3.2%	.335	3.44	26.5%	18.5%	225	-0.40	1.77	806	65
Jesse Chavez R 2015 · 3.87 FIP	31	SP	3.87	20.2%	6.8%	2.9%	.309	4.29	22.0%	16.2%	300	+0.42	2.03	804	65
Charlie Morton R 2015 · 3.63 FIP	31	SP	3.63	17.9%	6.3%	2.3%	.302	3.22	27.7%	18.9%	331	-0.41	2.52	1,534	65
Merrill Kelly R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	30	SP	4.41	20.3%	6.8%	4.0%	.289	3.83	21.1%	14.8%	390	-0.58	3.60	1,160	65
Kyle Gibson R 2017 · 4.42 FIP	29	SP	4.42	18.6%	8.6%	3.3%	.323	4.09	21.7%	12.9%	424	-0.33	3.56	1,689	65
Josh Lowey R 2015 · 3.35 FIP	30	SP	3.35	21.1%	7.8%	1.9%	.311	2.30	26.7%	20.1%	231	-1.05	2.22	426	64
Jhoulys Chacín R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	29	SP	3.85	20.0%	8.8%	2.4%	.262	4.33	20.3%	11.4%	296	+0.48	3.71	887	64

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.7	106	20.3%	6.6%	1.34	4.41
Zach Plesac ('23)	2.3	93	18.4%	6.3%	1.39	4.20
Yonny Chirinos ('24)	1.7	84	18.9%	6.6%	1.38	4.37
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Alex Cobb ('23)	4.0	114	19.5%	6.6%	1.03	4.14
Cole Irvin ('24)	2.9	118	17.1%	5.6%	1.28	4.46
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01