Casey Mize
P
Detroit Tigers
+0.8
WAR
INJURED · Injured 15-Day (D15)
Age 29
RHP
6'3" / 212 lbs
MLB
Svc 5.0 · Ctrl thru 2026
peak 1.2 · 2027
ERA4.11
FIP4.09
xFIP3.70
SIERA3.49
K%21.3%
BB%6.2%
K-BB%15.0%
IP131
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.2peak
2027
K†5055
FB Velo
p3393.3
Whiff%
p6427.5%
K%
p7827.4%
xwOBA vs
p760.287
SL (27%)
SI (10%)
CU (4%)
FB-1.6 (44%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 21 | A+ | Lakeland Flying Tigers | 5 | 5 | 14 | 55 | 14 | 3 | 2 | — | — | — | 3.95 | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 21 | 21 | 109 | 430 | 106 | 23 | 5 | 19.7% | 5.9% | 1.1% | 2.55 | 2.78 | +3.1 |
| 2020 | 23 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 7 | 7 | 28 | 133 | 26 | 13 | 7 | 19.5% | 9.8% | 5.4% | 6.99 | 5.67 | -0.2 |
| 2021 | 24 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 30 | 30 | 150 | 612 | 118 | 41 | 24 | 19.3% | 6.7% | 4.0% | 3.71 | 4.54 | +1.3 |
| 2022 | 25 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 3 | 3 | 11 | 52 | 4 | 2 | 2 | — | — | — | 7.59 | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 26 | 24 | 116 | 506 | 95 | 33 | 11 | 18.4% | 6.6% | 2.2% | 4.27 | 3.58 | +2.3 |
| 2025 | 28 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 28 | 28 | 149 | 627 | 139 | 35 | 21 | 22.2% | 5.6% | 3.2% | 3.87 | 3.69 | +2.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 3 | 3 | 16 | 71 | 18 | 6 | 2 | 25.4% | 8.5% | 2.8% | 3.94 | 3.58 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | DET | 40 | — | 40 | 170 | 39 | 11 | 5 | 22.8% | 6.6% | 3.0% | 3.69 | 3.64 | +0.6 |
| 2026 Total | 29 | MLB | DET | — | — | 56 | 241 | 57 | 17 | 7 | 23.5% | 7.1% | 2.9% | 3.76 | 3.62 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | DET | 17 | 17 | 94 | 396 | 88 | 27 | 12 | 22.2% | 6.7% | 3.0% | 4.10 | 4.11 | +1.2 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | DET | 14 | 14 | 78 | 328 | 78 | 20 | 10 | 23.6% | 6.0% | 3.1% | 4.01 | 3.95 | +1.0 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | DET | 12 | 12 | 64 | 271 | 62 | 17 | 9 | 23.0% | 6.2% | 3.2% | 4.04 | 4.06 | +0.7 |
| 2030 | 33 | MLB | DET | 53 | — | 53 | 223 | 50 | 14 | 7 | 22.4% | 6.4% | 3.3% | 4.13 | 4.19 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 34 | MLB | DET | 43 | — | 43 | 182 | 39 | 12 | 6 | 21.7% | 6.6% | 3.4% | 4.25 | 4.33 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 35 | MLB | DET | 35 | — | 35 | 147 | 31 | 10 | 5 | 20.9% | 6.8% | 3.5% | 4.39 | 4.48 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 36 | MLB | DET | 28 | — | 28 | 119 | 24 | 8 | 4 | 20.1% | 7.0% | 3.6% | 4.54 | 4.65 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 123 | 121 | 593 | 2486 | 497 | 159 | 74 | 20.0% | 6.4% | 3.0% | 3.88 | 3.85 | +9.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 41 | 41 | 200 | 838 | 168 | 54 | 25 | 20.0% | 6.4% | 3.0% | 3.88 | 3.85 | +3.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Casey Mize (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.06 | 21.9% | 6.2% | 3.0% | — | 4.04 | 22.9% | 16.6% | 236 | -0.02 | — | — | — |
| Chris Leroux R 2028 · 4.22 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.22 | 15.2% | 8.6% | 2.4% | .279 | 4.06 | 13.5% | 5.5% | 140 | -0.16 | 4.06 | 219 | 63 |
| Rodolfo Aguirre R 2027 · 4.29 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.29 | 12.4% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .288 | 4.78 | 11.4% | 1.3% | 125 | +0.49 | 3.39 | 212 | 60 |
| Alex Wilson R 2026 · 3.32 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.32 | 16.5% | 5.4% | 1.7% | .278 | 4.30 | 17.7% | 12.7% | 183 | +0.98 | 3.32 | 326 | 60 |
| Pedro Beato R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.25 | 19.2% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .275 | 3.71 | 18.5% | 11.1% | 152 | -0.54 | 3.46 | 295 | 60 |
| Dalier Hinojosa R 2026 · 3.41 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.41 | 20.4% | 9.8% | 1.4% | .283 | 4.31 | 18.7% | 6.1% | 24 | +0.90 | 3.41 | 104 | 60 |
| Yoanner Negrin R 2028 · 3.80 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.80 | 15.1% | 7.5% | 1.9% | .256 | 3.29 | 15.0% | 8.5% | 270 | -0.51 | 3.15 | 485 | 59 |
| Hector Ambriz R 2029 · 3.55 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.55 | 16.0% | 6.4% | 1.8% | .273 | 6.40 | 10.4% | 2.9% | 91 | +2.85 | 3.55 | 155 | 59 |
| Ramon Delgado R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.66 | 13.8% | 5.9% | 3.6% | .332 | 4.35 | 11.2% | 7.2% | 74 | -0.31 | 4.35 | 135 | 59 |
| Jim Johnson R 2029 · 3.34 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.34 | 17.2% | 6.2% | 1.7% | .330 | 3.67 | 22.0% | 14.1% | 185 | +0.33 | 2.57 | 251 | 59 |
| Angel Castro R 2029 · 4.53 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.53 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.2% | .268 | 4.27 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.26 | 3.50 | 292 | 58 |
| Bo Schultz R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.20 | 18.3% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .218 | 3.50 | 15.1% | 8.9% | 77 | -0.70 | 2.73 | 141 | 58 |
| Collin Balester R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.23 | 14.2% | 9.3% | 2.1% | .240 | 3.20 | 21.2% | 15.4% | 43 | -1.03 | 3.20 | 116 | 58 |
| Esmil Rogers R 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.44 | 18.5% | 8.9% | 1.4% | .348 | 2.85 | 21.7% | 17.9% | 40 | -0.59 | 2.85 | 199 | 58 |
| Felipe Arredondo R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.95 | 17.2% | 6.6% | 2.7% | .281 | 4.74 | 15.4% | 8.2% | 139 | +0.79 | 3.93 | 337 | 58 |
| Kevin Jepsen R 2028 · 3.46 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.46 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .241 | 5.68 | 16.9% | 7.2% | 90 | +2.22 | 3.46 | 160 | 58 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.92 | 21.7% | 7.6% | 3.1% | .272 | 3.62 | 22.3% | 11.3% | 62 | -0.30 | 3.62 | 224 | 58 |
| Jair Jurrjens R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.56 | 10.3% | 6.9% | 2.6% | .365 | 4.27 | 16.3% | 8.4% | 54 | -0.29 | 4.27 | 125 | 57 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2028 · 5.21 FIP | 31 | SW | 5.21 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.6% | .253 | 3.95 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.26 | 3.80 | 132 | 57 |
| Shawn Haviland R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.95 | 14.6% | 6.0% | 2.4% | .303 | 4.69 | 16.1% | 8.8% | 169 | +0.74 | 3.69 | 283 | 57 |
| Mario Gonzalez R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.93 | 17.9% | 5.7% | 2.9% | .276 | 4.35 | 14.1% | 9.1% | 104 | +0.42 | 3.93 | 368 | 56 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Arb-3
MLB Debut 2020
Service 5.645 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2026
First FA Year 2027
OPT
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Arb-3 | $6M | +0.8 | $3M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $3M | $3M | +$0.0M | ||
| Options · projected decision | |||
| 2027 | CLUB OPT | $2025.0M / $0.0M buyout | DECLINE |
| 2028 | CLUB OPT | $3.1M / $0.0M buyout | DECLINE |