Nick Nelson
P
Lehigh Valley IronPigs
+0.3
WAR
Age 30
RHP
6'1" / 205 lbs
AAA
peak 0.4 · 2026
ERA4.80
FIP4.80
xFIP3.84
SIERA2.90
K%19.8%
BB%10.1%
K-BB%9.7%
IP66
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2026
STUF6060
CTRL3030
CMD4040
K†5555
FB Velo
p7596.3
Whiff%
p7228.7%
K%
p5222.5%
xwOBA vs
p590.303
SL+1.0 (24%)
SI (29%)
CH (18%)
FB-1.7 (56%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 20 | ROK | Pulaski Yankees | 10 | 10 | 21 | 100 | 19 | 22 | 0 | 12.9% | 27.5% | 0.0% | 3.38 | 5.49 | -0.1 |
| 2017 | 21 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | 22 | 22 | 101 | 452 | 110 | 50 | 5 | 18.0% | 13.1% | 1.5% | 4.56 | 4.05 | +1.4 |
| 2018 | 22 | AA | Trenton Thunder | 26 | 25 | 122 | 523 | 144 | 63 | 3 | 21.4% | 13.0% | 0.5% | 3.55 | 3.24 | +2.8 |
| 2019 | 23 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 18 | 17 | 90 | 378 | 114 | 43 | 6 | 24.3% | 12.6% | 1.9% | 2.81 | 3.71 | +1.5 |
| 2020 | 24 | MLB | New York Yankees | 11 | 0 | 21 | 90 | 18 | 11 | 4 | 20.0% | 12.2% | 3.3% | 4.79 | 4.77 | +0.0 |
| 2021 | 25 | MLB | New York Yankees | 40 | 7 | 66 | 314 | 84 | 45 | 6 | 24.4% | 14.8% | 1.9% | 4.88 | 3.93 | +0.8 |
| 2022 | 26 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 47 | 2 | 69 | 306 | 69 | 36 | 1 | 22.5% | 11.8% | 0.3% | 4.85 | 2.86 | +1.7 |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 26 | 25 | 120 | 510 | 95 | 45 | 14 | 16.0% | 9.6% | 3.0% | 3.74 | 4.59 | +1.0 |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 38 | 5 | 60 | 271 | 52 | 29 | 8 | 15.8% | 11.6% | 3.6% | 6.03 | 5.22 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | PHI | 12 | 12 | 66 | 280 | 66 | 32 | 8 | 23.6% | 11.3% | 3.0% | 4.86 | 4.56 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | PHI | 12 | 12 | 64 | 270 | 62 | 31 | 8 | 23.0% | 11.4% | 3.1% | 4.74 | 4.66 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | PHI | 11 | 11 | 61 | 259 | 58 | 30 | 8 | 22.4% | 11.6% | 3.1% | 4.76 | 4.78 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | PHI | 59 | — | 59 | 247 | 54 | 29 | 8 | 21.7% | 11.7% | 3.2% | 4.85 | 4.91 | +0.0 |
| 2030 | 34 | MLB | PHI | 56 | — | 56 | 235 | 49 | 28 | 8 | 21.0% | 11.9% | 3.3% | 4.97 | 5.05 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 35 | MLB | PHI | 52 | — | 52 | 222 | 45 | 27 | 8 | 20.2% | 12.2% | 3.4% | 5.11 | 5.20 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 36 | MLB | PHI | 49 | — | 49 | 207 | 40 | 26 | 7 | 19.5% | 12.4% | 3.6% | 5.26 | 5.36 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 238 | 113 | 669 | 2944 | 586 | 376 | 52 | 19.9% | 12.8% | 1.8% | 4.16 | 4.00 | +9.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 71 | 34 | 200 | 880 | 175 | 112 | 16 | 19.9% | 12.8% | 1.8% | 4.16 | 4.00 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Nick Nelson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.56 | 23.6% | 11.3% | 3.0% | — | 4.78 | 22.4% | 10.8% | 184 | +0.22 | — | — | — |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.06 | 24.4% | 11.8% | 2.8% | .301 | 3.94 | 24.1% | 15.2% | 140 | -0.12 | 1.69 | 468 | 88 |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 86 |
| Blake Wood R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.79 | 24.5% | 10.6% | 2.6% | .307 | 3.35 | 25.3% | 16.0% | 74 | -0.44 | 2.91 | 210 | 85 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2027 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 85 |
| Erik Davis R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.24 | 22.2% | 11.1% | 2.9% | .349 | 3.54 | 17.4% | 8.5% | 65 | -0.70 | 3.05 | 227 | 82 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.72 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.6% | .287 | 3.88 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.16 | 3.38 | 129 | 82 |
| Kevin Jepsen R 2027 · 3.46 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.46 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .241 | 5.68 | 16.9% | 7.2% | 90 | +2.22 | 3.46 | 160 | 82 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2028 · 3.45 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.45 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.18 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.27 | 2.48 | 147 | 82 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2027 · 3.38 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.38 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .241 | 3.98 | 23.3% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.60 | 3.38 | 212 | 82 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2029 · 4.47 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.47 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.9% | .263 | 3.98 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.49 | 3.98 | 104 | 80 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2027 · 5.21 FIP | 31 | SW | 5.21 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.6% | .253 | 3.95 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.26 | 3.80 | 132 | 80 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.62 | 22.3% | 11.0% | 1.8% | .247 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 224 | 79 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2029 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 78 |
| Javy Guerra R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.3% | .303 | 3.87 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.43 | 3.01 | 260 | 78 |
| Esmil Rogers R 2025 · 3.44 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.44 | 18.5% | 8.9% | 1.4% | .348 | 2.85 | 21.7% | 17.9% | 40 | -0.59 | 2.85 | 199 | 77 |
| Blake Smith R 2024 · 3.63 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.63 | 22.4% | 8.6% | 2.4% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.18 | 124 | 76 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.83 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .292 | 1.31 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.52 | 1.30 | 218 | 76 |
| Arquimedes Caminero R 2025 · 4.49 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.49 | 17.9% | 11.4% | 2.6% | .314 | 4.60 | 18.6% | 7.5% | 38 | +0.11 | 3.38 | 173 | 75 |
| Mike Broadway R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.72 | 18.3% | 10.2% | 3.4% | .245 | 4.63 | 23.0% | 12.4% | 49 | -0.09 | 1.74 | 195 | 75 |
| Edwin Jackson R 2027 · 3.75 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.75 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 1.9% | .244 | 4.71 | 17.6% | 7.8% | 377 | +0.96 | 3.75 | 521 | 75 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.