Nick Nelson
P
Lehigh Valley IronPigs
Age 30
RHP
6'1" / 205 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 115 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119110vR 101
ERA5.22
FIP4.93
K%20.2%
BB%12.0%
K-BB%8.2%
ROS IP116
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 115 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p7596.3
Whiff%
p7228.7%
K%
p5222.5%
xwOBA vs
p590.303
SL+1.0 (24%)
SI (29%)
CH (18%)
FB-1.7 (56%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 20 | ROK | Pulaski Yankees | 10 | 10 | 21 | 100 | 19 | 22 | 0 | 100% | 2.1 | 12.9% | 27.5% | -14.6% | 0.0% | 3.38 | 5.49 | — |
| 2016 | 20 | ROK | Pulaski Yankees | 10 | 10 | 21 | 100 | 19 | 22 | 0 | 100% | 2.1 | 19.0% | 22.0% | -3.0% | 0.0% | 3.38 | 4.41 | — |
| 2017 | 21 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | 22 | 22 | 101 | 452 | 110 | 50 | 5 | 100% | 4.6 | 18.0% | 13.1% | 5.0% | 1.6% | 4.56 | 4.12 | — |
| 2017 | 21 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | 22 | 22 | 101 | 452 | 110 | 50 | 5 | 100% | 4.6 | 24.3% | 11.1% | 13.3% | 1.1% | 4.56 | 3.05 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 26 | 25 | 122 | 523 | 144 | 63 | 3 | 96% | 4.7 | 21.4% | 13.0% | 8.3% | 0.6% | 3.55 | 3.29 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 26 | 25 | 122 | 523 | 144 | 63 | 3 | 96% | 4.7 | 27.5% | 12.0% | 15.5% | 0.6% | 3.55 | 2.61 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 18 | 17 | 90 | 378 | 114 | 43 | 6 | 94% | 5.0 | 24.3% | 12.6% | 11.7% | 2.0% | 2.81 | 3.72 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 18 | 17 | 90 | 378 | 114 | 43 | 6 | 94% | 5.0 | 30.2% | 11.4% | 18.8% | 1.6% | 2.81 | 2.87 | — |
| 2020 | 24 | MLB | New York Yankees | 11 | 0 | 21 | 90 | 18 | 11 | 4 | 0% | 1.9 | 20.0% | 12.2% | 7.8% | 4.1% | 4.79 | 5.23 | -0.2 |
| 2020 | 24 | MLB | New York Yankees | 11 | 0 | 21 | 90 | 18 | 11 | 4 | 0% | 1.9 | 20.0% | 12.2% | 7.8% | 4.4% | 4.79 | 5.47 | -0.2 |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 7 | 66 | 314 | 84 | 45 | 6 | 18% | 1.7 | 24.4% | 14.8% | 9.6% | 1.6% | 4.88 | 3.80 | +0.7 |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 7 | 66 | 314 | 84 | 45 | 6 | 18% | 1.7 | 26.8% | 14.3% | 12.4% | 1.9% | 4.88 | 3.78 | +0.7 |
| 2022 | 26 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 47 | 2 | 69 | 306 | 69 | 36 | 1 | 4% | 1.5 | 22.5% | 11.8% | 10.8% | 0.3% | 4.85 | 2.86 | +1.5 |
| 2022 | 26 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 47 | 2 | 69 | 306 | 69 | 36 | 1 | 4% | 1.5 | 22.5% | 11.8% | 10.8% | 0.3% | 4.85 | 2.85 | +1.5 |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 4 levels | 26 | 25 | 120 | 510 | 95 | 45 | 14 | 96% | 4.6 | 16.0% | 9.6% | 6.5% | 2.9% | 3.74 | 4.53 | +1.2 |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 4 levels | 26 | 25 | 120 | 510 | 95 | 45 | 14 | 96% | 4.6 | 18.6% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 2.7% | 3.74 | 4.16 | +1.8 |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 5 | 60 | 271 | 52 | 29 | 8 | 13% | 1.6 | 15.8% | 11.6% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 6.03 | 5.25 | -0.5 |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 5 | 60 | 271 | 52 | 29 | 8 | 13% | 1.6 | 19.2% | 10.7% | 8.5% | 3.0% | 6.03 | 4.56 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | PHI | 135 | 0 | 142 | 598 | 121 | 72 | 18 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.2% | 12.0% | 8.2% | 3.0% | 5.22 | 4.93 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | PHI | 126 | 0 | 132 | 558 | 108 | 69 | 18 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.4% | 12.3% | 7.1% | 3.2% | 5.18 | 5.16 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | PHI | 116 | 0 | 122 | 516 | 96 | 66 | 18 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.6% | 12.7% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 5.32 | 5.42 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | PHI | 47 | 0 | 49 | 207 | 40 | 25 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.4% | 12.3% | 7.1% | 3.2% | 5.18 | 5.16 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | PHI | 64 | 0 | 67 | 283 | 53 | 36 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.6% | 12.7% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 5.32 | 5.42 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 184 | 4 | 230 | 1009 | 213 | 128 | 22 | 2% | 1.3 | 21.1% | 12.7% | 8.4% | 2.2% | 5.23 | 4.15 | +3.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 160 | 3 | 200 | 877 | 185 | 111 | 19 | 2% | 1.2 | 21.1% | 12.7% | 8.4% | 2.2% | 5.23 | 4.15 | +2.9 | ||
| Career | — | 238 | 113 | 669 | 2944 | 586 | 376 | 52 | 47% | 2.8 | 19.9% | 12.8% | 7.1% | 1.8% | 4.16 | 4.01 | +10.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 71 | 34 | 200 | 880 | 175 | 112 | 16 | 47% | 2.8 | 19.9% | 12.8% | 7.1% | 1.8% | 4.16 | 4.01 | +3.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Nick Nelson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.93 | 20.2% | 12.0% | 3.0% | — | 5.28 | 19.1% | 6.6% | 254 | +0.35 | — | — | — |
| Josh Zeid R 2026 · 5.41 FIP | 30 | SW | 5.41 | 18.3% | 10.8% | 4.5% | .334 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 265 | 75 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.15 | 13.7% | 8.7% | 2.0% | .270 | 3.45 | 19.1% | 10.5% | 220 | -0.70 | 3.16 | 593 | 70 |
| Burch Smith R 2025 · 3.94 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.94 | 22.6% | 12.3% | 2.2% | .271 | 4.11 | 14.9% | 9.0% | 43 | +0.17 | 3.39 | 382 | 70 |
| Bud Norris R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.90 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | .327 | 3.85 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -1.05 | 3.52 | 316 | 69 |
| Jason Berken R 2027 · 4.69 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.69 | 13.5% | 6.6% | 3.5% | .315 | 4.31 | 11.5% | 3.2% | 106 | -0.38 | 4.31 | 219 | 66 |
| Deck McGuire R 2025 · 5.39 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.39 | 18.4% | 13.2% | 4.0% | .262 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.23 | 622 | 64 |
| Elian Leyva R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.30 | 17.0% | 8.5% | 2.9% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 158 | 64 |
| Chris Leroux R 2027 · 4.50 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.50 | 15.2% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .279 | 3.94 | 13.5% | 5.5% | 140 | -0.56 | 3.94 | 219 | 63 |
| Neftalí Feliz R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.69 | 16.2% | 13.7% | 2.2% | .281 | 3.58 | 33.6% | 23.7% | 41 | -1.11 | 3.57 | 291 | 63 |
| Scott McGregor R 2024 · 4.19 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.19 | 11.8% | 7.6% | 2.1% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 107 | 63 |
| Scott Carroll R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.78 | 12.7% | 7.7% | 1.4% | .286 | 5.39 | 11.2% | 2.6% | 128 | +1.61 | 3.78 | 248 | 62 |
| Fabio Castillo R 2024 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.00 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 62 |
| Alfonso Sanchez R 2025 · 4.54 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.54 | 12.5% | 9.8% | 2.3% | .346 | 7.46 | 8.6% | 1.4% | 39 | +2.92 | 4.54 | 224 | 62 |
| Yoanner Negrin R 2027 · 4.02 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.02 | 15.1% | 7.5% | 2.3% | .256 | 3.39 | 15.0% | 8.5% | 270 | -0.63 | 3.19 | 485 | 62 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.30 | 15.0% | 12.6% | 1.6% | .289 | 4.40 | 22.0% | 10.3% | 115 | +0.10 | 4.23 | 221 | 61 |
| Aldo Montes R 2025 · 4.41 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.41 | 18.2% | 10.6% | 2.8% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.41 | 210 | 61 |
| Rodolfo Aguirre R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.28 | 12.4% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .288 | 4.99 | 11.4% | 1.3% | 125 | +0.71 | 3.49 | 212 | 60 |
| Dillon Gee R 2026 · 5.07 FIP | 30 | SW | 5.07 | 16.2% | 6.2% | 4.7% | .302 | 3.88 | 18.0% | 12.1% | 127 | -1.19 | 3.62 | 380 | 60 |
| Hector Noesí R 2024 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 59 |
| Donovan Hand R 2025 · 4.29 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.29 | 11.1% | 4.3% | 2.9% | .305 | 4.30 | 12.5% | 5.7% | 140 | +0.01 | 4.29 | 237 | 59 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 132 | 19.5% | 12.3% | 1.24 | 5.24 |
| Tom Koehler ('17) | 3 | 146 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.24 | 4.62 |
| Yovani Gallardo ('18) | 4 | 132 | 15.4% | 10.2% | 1.18 | 4.97 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez ('17) | 3 | 156 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 1.32 | 5.33 |
| Chris Tillman ('18) | 4 | 116 | 16.5% | 9.7% | 1.34 | 5.42 |
| James Kaprielian ('23) | 3 | 105 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 1.26 | 4.58 |
| Tyson Ross ('19) | 4 | 107 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 0.84 | 4.31 |