Nick Nelson

P Lehigh Valley IronPigs

Age 31 RHP 6'1" / 205 lbs AAA peak 0.2 · 2027

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	26	MLBPHI	47	2	69	4.85	2.85	22.5%	11.8%	1.4
2023	27	MIX4 levels	26	25	120	3.74	4.16	18.6%	8.8%	1.8	K 15.7% · BB 8.2% · FIP 4.43
2024	28	MIX2 levels	38	5	60	6.03	4.56	19.2%	10.7%	-0.0	K 15.4% · BB 9.9% · FIP 5.05
2025	29	No MLB games played
2026	30	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	31	MLBPHI	13	0	14	4.57	4.39	23.8%	10.3%	0.0
2028PROJ37% MLB	32	MLBPHI	38	0	40	4.62	4.65	23.0%	10.8%	-0.0
2029PROJ55% MLB	33	MLBPHI	46	0	48	4.80	4.92	22.2%	11.2%	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 3.2 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2022

FB Velo75

xwOBA vs59

K%52

CompsJosh A. Smith (age 31) · Elian Leyva (age 30) · Hisashi Iwakuma (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111102vR 94

ERA4.57

FIP4.39

K%23.8%

BB%10.3%

K-BB%13.5%

Proj IP142

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 142 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7596.3

Whiff%

p7228.7%

p5222.5%

xwOBA vs

p590.303

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2016	20	ROK MLE	Pulaski Yankees	10	10	21	100	19	22	0	100%	2.1	12.9%	27.5%	-14.6%	0.0%	3.38	5.49	—
2016	20	ROK RAW	Pulaski Yankees	10	10	21	100	19	22	0	100%	2.1	19.0%	22.0%	-3.0%	0.0%	3.38	4.41	—
2017	21	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	22	22	101	452	110	50	5	100%	4.6	18.0%	13.1%	5.0%	1.5%	4.56	4.07	—
2017	21	A RAW	Charleston RiverDogs	22	22	101	452	110	50	5	100%	4.6	24.3%	11.1%	13.3%	1.1%	4.56	3.05	—
2018	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	25	122	523	144	63	3	96%	4.7	21.4%	13.0%	8.3%	0.6%	3.55	3.25	—
2018	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	25	122	523	144	63	3	96%	4.7	27.5%	12.0%	15.5%	0.6%	3.55	2.61	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	17	90	378	114	43	6	94%	5.0	24.3%	12.6%	11.7%	1.9%	2.81	3.71	—
2019	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	18	17	90	378	114	43	6	94%	5.0	30.2%	11.4%	18.8%	1.6%	2.81	2.87	—
2020	24	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	11	0	21	90	18	11	4	0%	1.9	20.0%	12.2%	7.8%	4.2%	4.79	5.24	-0.2
2020	24	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	11	0	21	90	18	11	4	0%	1.9	20.0%	12.2%	7.8%	4.4%	4.79	5.47	-0.2
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	7	66	314	84	45	6	18%	1.7	24.4%	14.8%	9.6%	1.8%	4.88	3.92	+0.5
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	7	66	314	84	45	6	18%	1.7	26.8%	14.3%	12.4%	1.9%	4.88	3.78	+0.6
2022	26	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	47	2	69	306	69	36	1	4%	1.5	22.5%	11.8%	10.8%	0.3%	4.85	2.85	+1.4
2022	26	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	47	2	69	306	69	36	1	4%	1.5	22.5%	11.8%	10.8%	0.3%	4.85	2.85	+1.4
2023	27	MIX MLE	4 levels	26	25	120	510	95	45	14	96%	4.6	15.7%	8.2%	7.5%	2.9%	3.74	4.43	+1.4
2023	27	MIX RAW	4 levels	26	25	120	510	95	45	14	96%	4.6	18.6%	8.8%	9.8%	2.7%	3.74	4.16	+1.8
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	5	60	271	52	29	8	13%	1.6	15.4%	9.9%	5.5%	3.6%	6.03	5.05	-0.3
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	5	60	271	52	29	8	13%	1.6	15.4%	9.9%	5.5%	3.6%	6.03	5.05	-0.3
2024	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	5	60	271	52	29	8	13%	1.6	19.2%	10.7%	8.5%	3.0%	6.03	4.56	-0.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			74	4	114	520	120	67	6	5%	1.5	23.1%	12.9%	10.2%	1.2%	5.20	3.44	+1.5
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	31	MLB	PHI	13	0	14	59	14	6	2	0%	1.1	23.8%	10.3%	13.5%	2.9%	4.57	4.39	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	PHI	103	0	108	458	105	49	15	0%	1.1	23.0%	10.8%	12.3%	3.2%	4.62	4.65	-0.1
2029	33	MLB MLE	PHI	83	0	88	369	82	41	13	0%	1.1	22.2%	11.2%	11.0%	3.5%	4.80	4.92	-0.4
2028	32	MLB CTX	PHI	38	0	40	169	39	18	5	0%	1.1	23.0%	10.8%	12.3%	3.2%	4.62	4.65	-0.0
2029	33	MLB CTX	PHI	46	0	48	203	45	23	7	0%	1.0	22.2%	11.2%	11.0%	3.5%	4.80	4.92	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		158	4	202	892	204	108	18	3%	1.3	22.9%	12.1%	10.8%	2.1%	4.99	3.83	+1.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		156	4	200	881	202	107	18	3%	1.3	22.9%	12.1%	10.8%	2.1%	4.99	3.83	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		238	113	669	2944	584	365	52	47%	2.8	19.8%	12.4%	7.4%	1.8%	4.16	3.97	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		71	34	200	880	174	109	16	47%	2.8	19.8%	12.4%	7.4%	1.8%	4.16	3.97	+0.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 54 IPFIP 4.77 → 5.05 (+0.27)K% 18.0% → 15.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.96%	—	×0.860	15.44%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.02%	—	×0.900	9.92%
HR / BF /BF	3.27%	÷0.989	×1.100	3.63%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 98).

Result: FIP 4.77 → 5.05, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 97 IPFIP 4.55 → 4.75 (+0.20)K% 17.7% → 15.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.73%	—	×0.860	15.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.93%	—	×0.900	8.94%
HR / BF /BF	3.07%	÷1.028	×1.100	3.29%

Result: FIP 4.55 → 4.75, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAReading Fightin Phils · 13 IPFIP 1.33 → 1.74 (+0.41)K% 24.0% → 19.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.00%	—	×0.810	19.44%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.00%	—	×1.100	2.20%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.050	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 110).

Result: FIP 1.33 → 1.74, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 52 IPFIP 3.83 → 4.12 (+0.28)K% 26.3% → 23.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.27%	—	×0.880	23.12%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.29%	—	×1.050	12.90%
HR / BF /BF	2.54%	÷1.149	×1.100	2.43%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 130).

Result: FIP 3.83 → 4.12, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AATrenton Thunder · 65 IPFIP 2.96 → 3.81 (+0.85)K% 30.3% → 24.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.29%	—	×0.810	24.54%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.77%	—	×1.100	14.05%
HR / BF /BF	1.46%	÷0.960	×1.200	1.82%

Result: FIP 2.96 → 3.81, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 21 IPFIP 3.05 → 3.39 (+0.34)K% 27.0% → 23.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.97%	—	×0.880	23.73%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.87%	—	×1.050	8.26%
HR / BF /BF	2.25%	÷1.087	×1.100	2.27%

Result: FIP 3.05 → 3.39, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 A+Tampa Tarpons · 88 IPFIP 2.61 → 3.36 (+0.75)K% 26.3% → 20.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.26%	—	×0.770	20.22%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.47%	—	×1.150	14.34%
HR / BF /BF	0.27%	÷1.205	×1.250	0.28%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 141).

Result: FIP 2.61 → 3.36, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 ACharleston RiverDogs · 25 IPFIP 1.60 → 2.84 (+1.25)K% 34.7% → 25.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.65%	—	×0.740	25.64%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.93%	—	×1.180	8.18%
HR / BF /BF	0.99%	÷0.811	×1.300	1.59%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 62).

Result: FIP 1.60 → 2.84, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nick Nelson (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.9%	—	4.77	22.7%	11.7%	196	+0.38	—	—	—
Josh A. Smith R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	31	SW	4.65	20.8%	6.4%	4.5%	.341	3.67	17.4%	8.6%	59	-0.98	2.91	598	61
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	61
Hisashi Iwakuma R 2012 · 4.28 FIP	31	SP-	4.28	19.5%	7.7%	3.4%	.277	3.45	21.5%	17.8%	528	-0.83	3.19	884	60
Mitch Lively R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	31	SP-	3.47	17.0%	6.4%	1.8%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	2.39	158	59
Mike Wright Jr. R 2021 · 3.89 FIP	31	SP-	3.89	19.1%	8.8%	2.4%	.237	4.79	14.4%	1.1%	56	+0.90	3.76	725	59
Jorge Campillo R 2008 · 3.93 FIP	29	SP-	3.93	16.3%	5.5%	2.8%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	172	58
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	58
Robert Stock R 2021 · 4.18 FIP	31	SW	4.18	23.0%	8.5%	3.5%	.301	7.20	14.3%	0.1%	23	+3.02	2.74	378	56
Luke Hudson R 2006 · 3.81 FIP	29	SP-	3.81	14.5%	8.4%	1.6%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	235	56
Angel Sánchez R 2023 · 4.90 FIP	33	SW	4.90	19.0%	10.5%	3.8%	.333	3.77	11.8%	6.8%	27	-1.13	3.77	284	56
David Hale R 2019 · 3.30 FIP	31	SW	3.30	16.4%	5.5%	1.6%	.307	4.23	18.3%	12.1%	44	+0.93	3.30	581	55
Pete Walker R 2002 · 4.59 FIP	33	SP-	4.59	13.4%	7.7%	3.0%	.279	5.16	12.0%	2.8%	139	+0.57	4.45	327	55
Scott McGregor R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	11.8%	7.6%	2.4%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	107	55
Spencer Bivens R 2024 · 4.07 FIP	30	SU	4.07	18.0%	5.8%	3.2%	.265	3.88	18.2%	10.9%	157	-0.19	3.52	391	54
Chris Jakubauskas R 2009 · 4.97 FIP	30	SW	4.97	12.1%	6.2%	3.9%	.250	4.42	15.7%	7.8%	72	-0.55	4.42	165	54
Felipe Arredondo R 2017 · 4.76 FIP	30	SW	4.76	14.8%	7.3%	3.6%	.311	4.65	16.2%	9.1%	64	-0.11	3.92	337	54
Toru Murata R 2016 · 3.63 FIP	31	SW	3.63	12.9%	5.7%	1.6%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	267	53
Samuel Deduno R 2014 · 3.92 FIP	31	SW	3.92	18.7%	9.9%	2.1%	.287	3.84	19.8%	12.3%	39	-0.08	2.99	327	53
Nick Martinez R 2022 · 4.26 FIP	31	SW	4.26	21.2%	9.2%	3.3%	.273	3.56	19.7%	14.0%	418	-0.70	2.94	1,288	53
Mark Leiter Jr. R 2022 · 3.98 FIP	31	SW	3.98	26.9%	7.8%	3.9%	.259	3.13	29.2%	20.8%	171	-0.85	2.53	827	53

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.3	90	23.1%	11.3%	1.02	4.78
Mike Kilkenny ('69-'73, 0 WAR*)	2.0	102	22.2%*	11.4%*	1.11*	5.16*
Darrell Jackson ('78-'82, 3 WAR*)	2.1	82	21.0%*	10.4%*	1.05*	4.43*
Dick Kelley ('64-'71, 3 WAR*)	2.6	87	21.4%*	10.6%*	1.04*	4.26*
Steven Brault ('22)	1.8	59	18.8%	11.3%	0.97	4.73
James McDonald ('13)	2.6	102	20.0%	10.4%	0.98	4.20
Zack Godley ('21)	2.8	95	22.1%	9.6%	1.16	4.92