Nick Nelson — OGILVIE

Nick Nelson P Lehigh Valley IronPigs

Age 30 RHP 6'1" / 205 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 11 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 100

ERA5.12

FIP4.82

K%19.6%

BB%10.7%

K-BB%8.9%

ROS IP11

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 11 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL3030

CMD4040

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7596.3

Whiff%

p7228.7%

p5222.5%

xwOBA vs

p590.303

SL+1.0 (24%)

SI (29%)

CH (18%)

FB-1.7 (56%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	20	ROK MLE	Pulaski Yankees	10	10	21	100	19	22	0	100%	2.1	12.9%	27.5%	-14.6%	0.0%	3.38	5.49	—
2016	20	ROK RAW	Pulaski Yankees	10	10	21	100	19	22	0	100%	2.1	19.0%	22.0%	-3.0%	0.0%	3.38	4.41	—
2017	21	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	22	22	101	452	110	50	5	100%	4.6	18.0%	13.1%	5.0%	1.5%	4.56	4.07	—
2017	21	A RAW	Charleston RiverDogs	22	22	101	452	110	50	5	100%	4.6	24.3%	11.1%	13.3%	1.1%	4.56	3.05	—
2018	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	25	122	523	144	63	3	96%	4.7	21.4%	13.0%	8.3%	0.6%	3.55	3.25	—
2018	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	25	122	523	144	63	3	96%	4.7	27.5%	12.0%	15.5%	0.6%	3.55	2.61	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	17	90	378	114	43	6	94%	5.0	24.3%	12.6%	11.7%	1.9%	2.81	3.71	—
2019	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	18	17	90	378	114	43	6	94%	5.0	30.2%	11.4%	18.8%	1.6%	2.81	2.87	—
2020	24	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	11	0	21	90	18	11	4	0%	1.9	20.0%	12.2%	7.8%	4.2%	4.79	5.24	-0.2
2020	24	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	11	0	21	90	18	11	4	0%	1.9	20.0%	12.2%	7.8%	4.4%	4.79	5.47	-0.2
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	7	66	314	84	45	6	18%	1.7	24.4%	14.8%	9.6%	1.8%	4.88	3.92	+0.5
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	7	66	314	84	45	6	18%	1.7	26.8%	14.3%	12.4%	1.9%	4.88	3.78	+0.6
2022	26	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	47	2	69	306	69	36	1	4%	1.5	22.5%	11.8%	10.8%	0.3%	4.85	2.85	+1.4
2022	26	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	47	2	69	306	69	36	1	4%	1.5	22.5%	11.8%	10.8%	0.3%	4.85	2.85	+1.4
2023	27	MIX MLE	4 levels	26	25	120	510	95	45	14	96%	4.6	15.2%	8.2%	7.0%	2.9%	3.74	4.47	+0.6
2023	27	MIX MLE	4 levels	26	25	120	510	95	45	14	96%	4.6	15.2%	8.2%	7.0%	2.9%	3.74	4.47	+0.6
2023	27	MIX RAW	4 levels	26	25	120	510	95	45	14	96%	4.6	18.6%	8.8%	9.8%	2.7%	3.74	4.16	+1.1
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	5	60	271	52	29	8	13%	1.6	14.9%	9.9%	5.0%	3.6%	6.03	5.09	-0.4
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	5	60	271	52	29	8	13%	1.6	14.9%	9.9%	5.0%	3.6%	6.03	5.09	-0.4
2024	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	5	60	271	52	29	8	13%	1.6	19.2%	10.7%	8.5%	3.0%	6.03	4.56	-0.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			74	4	114	520	120	67	6	5%	1.5	23.1%	12.9%	10.2%	1.2%	5.20	3.44	+1.5
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	30	MLB	PHI	10	0	11	46	9	5	1	0%	1.1	19.6%	10.7%	8.9%	3.0%	5.12	4.82	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	PHI	126	0	132	558	105	62	18	0%	1.0	18.8%	11.0%	7.8%	3.2%	5.08	5.05	-0.7
2028	32	MLB MLE	PHI	116	0	122	516	93	59	18	0%	1.1	18.0%	11.4%	6.6%	3.5%	5.22	5.31	-1.0
2027	31	MLB CTX	PHI	47	0	49	207	39	23	7	0%	1.0	18.8%	11.0%	7.8%	3.2%	5.08	5.05	-0.3
2028	32	MLB CTX	PHI	64	0	67	283	51	32	10	0%	1.0	18.0%	11.4%	6.6%	3.5%	5.22	5.31	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		184	4	230	1009	210	122	22	2%	1.3	20.8%	12.1%	8.7%	2.2%	5.18	4.10	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		160	3	200	877	182	106	19	2%	1.2	20.8%	12.1%	8.7%	2.2%	5.18	4.10	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		238	113	669	2944	580	365	52	47%	2.8	19.7%	12.4%	7.3%	1.8%	4.16	3.98	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		71	34	200	880	173	109	16	47%	2.8	19.7%	12.4%	7.3%	1.8%	4.16	3.98	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nick Nelson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.82	19.6%	10.7%	3.0%	—	5.17	18.4%	7.2%	254	+0.35	—	—	—
Josh Zeid R 2017 · 5.35 FIP	30	SW	5.35	18.3%	10.8%	4.4%	.334	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	265	75
Bud Norris R 2015 · 4.68 FIP	30	SW	4.68	18.8%	8.2%	3.9%	.327	3.78	24.2%	15.5%	233	-0.90	3.51	316	71
Mitch Atkins R 2016 · 3.65 FIP	30	SP-	3.65	21.4%	8.2%	2.4%	.341	4.77	14.3%	6.2%	78	+1.12	3.65	205	69
Jason Berken R 2015 · 4.34 FIP	31	SW	4.34	13.5%	6.6%	2.8%	.315	4.54	11.5%	3.2%	106	+0.20	4.34	219	69
Burch Smith R 2019 · 3.96 FIP	29	SW	3.96	22.6%	12.3%	2.2%	.271	4.19	14.9%	9.0%	43	+0.23	3.50	382	68
Odrisamer Despaigne R 2017 · 4.09 FIP	30	SW	4.09	13.7%	8.7%	1.9%	.270	3.53	19.1%	10.5%	220	-0.56	3.13	593	68
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	65
Scott McGregor R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	11.8%	7.6%	2.4%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	107	65
Scott Carroll R 2015 · 3.92 FIP	30	SW	3.92	12.7%	7.7%	1.7%	.286	5.07	11.2%	2.6%	128	+1.15	3.92	248	65
Chris Leroux R 2015 · 4.20 FIP	31	SU	4.20	15.2%	8.6%	2.4%	.279	4.08	13.5%	5.5%	140	-0.12	4.08	219	64
Deck McGuire R 2018 · 5.28 FIP	29	SW	5.28	18.4%	13.2%	3.8%	.262	—	—	—	—	—	3.41	622	64
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	63
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	63
Alfonso Sanchez R 2017 · 4.51 FIP	29	SW	4.51	12.5%	9.8%	2.2%	.346	7.58	8.6%	1.4%	39	+3.07	4.51	224	63
Donovan Hand R 2015 · 4.30 FIP	29	SW	4.30	11.1%	4.3%	2.9%	.305	4.56	12.5%	5.7%	140	+0.26	4.30	237	63
Daniel McCutchen R 2015 · 4.30 FIP	32	SP-	4.30	13.9%	4.4%	3.3%	.268	4.74	10.8%	4.9%	155	+0.44	4.30	287	63
Rodolfo Aguirre R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	30	SW	4.29	12.4%	6.9%	2.5%	.288	4.81	11.4%	1.3%	125	+0.52	3.39	212	62
Dillon Gee R 2016 · 5.10 FIP	30	SW	5.10	16.2%	6.2%	4.7%	.302	3.85	18.0%	12.1%	127	-1.25	3.67	380	62
Colin Bates R 2015 · 4.57 FIP	27	SP-	4.57	10.5%	6.5%	2.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.57	111	61
Aldo Montes R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	29	SW	4.69	18.2%	10.6%	3.3%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	4.69	210	61

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.0	132	18.8%	11.0%	1.24	5.14
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Homer Bailey ('19)	1.9	96	18.5%	7.8%	1.34	5.56
Josiah Gray ('23)	1.9	126	22.6%	10.8%	1.88	4.64
Ian Anderson ('22)	1.4	91	22.5%	10.4%	0.96	3.97
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45