Foster Griffin

P Cleveland Guardians

Age 32 LHP 6'3" / 225 lbs MLB Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 1.6 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MANPre-ArbFA 2031

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2021	26	MIX4 levels	15	15	52	3.81	2.43	23.1%	8.1%	—	K 16.4% · BB 7.7% · FIP 3.04
2022	27	MIX2 levels	44	0	58	2.81	2.65	25.2%	7.9%	1.3	K 23.9% · BB 7.0% · FIP 2.88
2026	31	MLBCLE	31	31	173	3.60	3.78	21.9%	6.2%	3.4
2027PROJ	32	MLBCLE	21	21	126	4.04	4.26	20.7%	6.1%	1.7
2028PROJ95% MLB	33	MLBCLE	16	16	94	4.34	4.54	19.9%	6.5%	0.9
2029PROJ90% MLB	34	MLBCLE	11	11	67	4.63	4.83	19.0%	7.0%	0.4

Last 3 seasons WAR 4.7 · Next 3 projected WAR 3.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2030Service2.198First FA2031

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Arb-1$2M2029Arb-2$2M2030Ext$9M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

K%48

xwOBA vs43

FB Velo10

Form6.17 ERA (proj 4.04) · K 20.9% (proj 20.7%) · BB 6.4% (proj 6.1%) · last 60d · 23 IP through Oct 27

CompsShota Imanaga (age 30) · Tomas Solis (age 32) · Arturo Lopez (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 97105vR 113

ERA4.04

FIP4.26

K%20.7%

BB%6.1%

K-BB%14.7%

Proj IP126

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 126 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$19M ctrl surplus

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.5

Whiff%

p3523.2%

p4821.9%

xwOBA vs

p430.320

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2022

Service 2.198 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.7	$14M	+$13M
2028	Arb-1	$2M	+0.9	$3M	+$1M
2029	Arb-2	$2M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$18M	+$14M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	20	A MLE	Lexington Legends	22	22	103	458	71	35	8	100%	4.7	11.5%	9.0%	2.5%	2.1%	5.44	4.40	—
2015	20	A RAW	Lexington Legends	22	22	103	458	71	35	8	100%	4.7	15.5%	7.6%	7.9%	1.7%	5.44	3.75	—
2016	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	133	611	105	52	12	100%	4.9	13.1%	9.8%	3.3%	2.4%	5.43	4.57	—
2016	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	133	611	105	52	12	100%	4.9	17.2%	8.5%	8.7%	2.0%	5.43	3.87	—
2017	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	161	669	141	52	13	100%	5.8	16.7%	8.7%	8.0%	2.2%	3.35	4.02	—
2017	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	28	161	669	141	52	13	100%	5.8	21.1%	7.8%	13.3%	1.9%	3.35	3.37	—
2018	23	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	28	26	153	673	117	40	20	93%	5.5	14.1%	6.5%	7.5%	3.5%	5.13	4.68	—
2018	23	AA RAW	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	28	26	153	673	117	40	20	93%	5.5	17.4%	5.9%	11.4%	3.0%	5.13	4.06	—
2019	24	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	25	25	131	590	111	61	20	100%	5.2	16.6%	10.9%	5.7%	3.6%	5.23	5.08	—
2019	24	AAA RAW	Omaha Storm Chasers	25	25	131	590	111	61	20	100%	5.2	18.8%	10.3%	8.5%	3.4%	5.23	4.79	—
2020	25	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	1	0	2	6	1	0	0	0%	1.7	16.7%	0.0%	16.7%	0.0%	0.00	1.69	+0.1
2020	25	MLB RAW	Kansas City Royals	1	0	2	6	1	0	0	0%	1.7	16.7%	0.0%	16.7%	0.0%	0.00	1.90	+0.1
2021	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	15	15	52	221	51	18	1	100%	3.5	16.4%	7.7%	8.8%	0.6%	3.81	3.04	—
2021	26	MIX RAW	4 levels	15	15	52	221	51	18	1	100%	3.5	23.1%	8.1%	14.9%	0.5%	3.81	2.43	—
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	58	242	61	19	3	0%	1.3	23.9%	7.0%	16.9%	1.7%	2.81	2.88	+1.2
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	0	58	242	61	19	3	0%	1.3	25.2%	7.9%	17.4%	1.2%	2.81	2.65	+1.3
2026	31	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	31	31	173	721	158	45	23	100%	5.6	21.9%	6.2%	15.7%	3.2%	3.60	3.80	+3.3
2026	31	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	31	31	173	721	158	45	23	100%	5.6	21.9%	6.2%	15.7%	3.2%	3.60	3.80	+3.3
2026	31	MLB RAW	Cleveland Guardians	31	31	173	721	158	45	23	100%	5.6	21.9%	6.2%	15.7%	3.2%	3.60	3.78	+3.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			38	31	181	759	163	50	23	82%	4.8	21.5%	6.6%	14.9%	3.0%	3.74	3.78	+3.5
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	32	MLB	CLE	21	21	126	532	110	32	17	100%	6.0	20.7%	6.1%	14.7%	3.2%	4.04	4.26	+1.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	CLE	16	16	99	417	83	27	14	100%	6.2	19.9%	6.5%	13.4%	3.5%	4.34	4.54	+1.0
2029	34	MLB MLE	CLE	12	12	74	312	59	22	12	100%	6.1	19.0%	7.0%	11.9%	3.8%	4.64	4.84	+0.5
2028	33	MLB CTX	CLE	16	16	94	397	79	26	14	100%	5.9	19.9%	6.5%	13.4%	3.5%	4.34	4.54	+0.9
2029	34	MLB CTX	CLE	11	11	67	283	54	20	11	100%	6.1	19.0%	7.0%	11.9%	3.8%	4.63	4.83	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		65	58	341	1437	295	96	47	89%	5.2	20.5%	6.6%	13.9%	3.3%	4.08	4.02	+5.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		38	34	200	842	173	56	28	89%	5.3	20.5%	6.6%	13.9%	3.3%	4.08	4.02	+3.3
Career	—	MLE		221	174	964	4191	690	346	113	79%	4.4	16.5%	8.3%	8.2%	2.7%	4.43	4.24	+4.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	36	200	870	143	72	23	79%	4.4	16.5%	8.3%	8.2%	2.7%	4.43	4.24	+2.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2022 AAABuffalo Bisons · 51 IPFIP 2.44 → 2.88 (+0.44)K% 27.1% → 23.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.14%	—	×0.880	23.89%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.67%	—	×1.050	7.00%
HR / BF /BF	1.43%	÷0.951	×1.100	1.65%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 90).

Result: FIP 2.44 → 2.88, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 25 IPFIP 3.28 → 3.54 (+0.26)K% 16.5% → 14.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.52%	—	×0.880	14.54%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.70%	—	×1.050	9.13%
HR / BF /BF	0.87%	÷1.027	×1.100	0.93%

Result: FIP 3.28 → 3.54, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 13 IPFIP 1.44 → 1.90 (+0.46)K% 25.5% → 20.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.49%	—	×0.810	20.65%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.92%	—	×1.100	4.31%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.957	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 91).

Result: FIP 1.44 → 1.90, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKACL Royals Blue · 6 IPFIP 2.65 → 4.08 (+1.43)K% 32.1% → 21.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.14%	—	×0.680	21.86%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.86%	—	×1.250	22.32%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.65 → 4.08, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AColumbia Fireflies · 8 IPFIP 0.44 → 1.34 (+0.90)K% 37.0% → 27.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.04%	—	×0.740	27.41%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.70%	—	×1.180	4.37%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.237	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 147).

Result: FIP 0.44 → 1.34, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 131 IPFIP 4.68 → 5.08 (+0.40)K% 18.8% → 16.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.81%	—	×0.880	16.56%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.34%	—	×1.050	10.86%
HR / BF /BF	3.39%	÷1.023	×1.100	3.64%

Result: FIP 4.68 → 5.08, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 153 IPFIP 4.02 → 4.68 (+0.67)K% 17.4% → 14.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.38%	—	×0.810	14.08%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.94%	—	×1.100	6.54%
HR / BF /BF	2.97%	÷1.008	×1.200	3.54%

Result: FIP 4.02 → 4.68, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 105 IPFIP 3.84 → 4.34 (+0.49)K% 18.5% → 14.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.45%	—	×0.810	14.95%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.29%	—	×1.100	8.02%
HR / BF /BF	2.51%	÷1.114	×1.200	2.70%

Result: FIP 3.84 → 4.34, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Foster Griffin (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.2%	—	4.67	19.5%	12.8%	172	+0.41	—	—	—
Shota Imanaga L 2024 · 3.71 FIP	30	SP	3.71	25.1%	4.0%	4.0%	.262	4.76	22.8%	17.9%	319	+1.05	3.71	492	60
Tomas Solis L 2015 · 4.20 FIP	32	SP	4.20	15.0%	6.2%	2.9%	.264	5.09	12.0%	3.7%	159	+0.89	4.20	327	58
Arturo Lopez L 2015 · 4.80 FIP	32	SP	4.80	13.7%	6.2%	3.8%	.301	4.80	10.9%	4.2%	217	+0.00	4.34	445	56
Jorge Castillo L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	33	SP	4.50	16.8%	9.2%	3.0%	.292	4.95	12.4%	7.2%	186	+0.45	4.50	408	55
Yohan Flande L 2017 · 3.18 FIP	31	SP	3.18	15.9%	6.4%	1.1%	.346	4.21	10.0%	-1.9%	23	+1.03	3.18	394	54
Roy Merritt L 2017 · 3.95 FIP	31	SP	3.95	16.2%	5.8%	2.7%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	129	54
Oscar Rivera L 2015 · 3.68 FIP	34	SP	3.68	14.2%	6.9%	1.7%	.298	4.66	10.4%	3.0%	129	+0.98	3.68	237	53
Alejandro Astorga L 2017 · 4.01 FIP	30	SP	4.01	14.4%	8.2%	2.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.72	311	53
Orlando Lara L 2017 · 4.39 FIP	32	SP	4.39	14.7%	6.5%	3.1%	.346	4.09	22.0%	14.2%	104	-0.30	3.85	426	52
Tsuyoshi Wada L 2014 · 3.60 FIP	33	SP	3.60	19.7%	6.2%	2.5%	.290	3.66	16.8%	9.7%	119	+0.06	3.60	188	51
Everett Teaford L 2015 · 4.42 FIP	31	SP-	4.42	13.9%	7.6%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	208	51
Yusei Kikuchi L 2023 · 3.90 FIP	32	SP	3.90	25.9%	6.9%	3.9%	.311	3.72	24.7%	16.8%	422	-0.18	3.23	1,056	50
Ryan Verdugo L 2017 · 3.36 FIP	30	SP-	3.36	22.7%	5.4%	2.7%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	153	50
Matt Dermody L 2022 · 4.22 FIP	32	SP-	4.22	17.9%	5.5%	3.5%	.302	3.87	20.7%	16.1%	49	-0.35	2.38	348	49
Eric Stults L 2012 · 3.71 FIP	32	SP-	3.71	13.3%	6.5%	1.7%	.262	4.01	14.8%	9.6%	517	+0.30	3.50	773	48
Jose De Paula L 2019 · 3.31 FIP	31	SP	3.31	19.0%	7.6%	1.6%	.394	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	118	47
Brandon Mann L 2016 · 4.72 FIP	32	SP	4.72	19.4%	7.9%	4.1%	.320	3.97	19.0%	7.6%	128	-0.75	3.59	190	46
Mark Hendrickson L 2006 · 4.33 FIP	32	SP-	4.33	13.8%	8.6%	2.4%	.288	4.28	14.8%	8.8%	361	-0.05	3.04	1,169	46
Darrell May L 2004 · 5.17 FIP	32	SP	5.17	14.4%	6.1%	4.6%	.315	5.59	11.6%	4.3%	66	+0.42	4.24	657	46
Daniel Rodriguez L 2017 · 3.87 FIP	32	SP	3.87	13.1%	9.7%	1.2%	.335	4.77	20.8%	13.0%	112	+0.90	2.89	391	45

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.4	120	20.5%	6.5%	1.27	4.08
Ross Stripling ('24)	4.2	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17
Wally Whitehurst ('89-'96, 4 WAR*)	2.4	98	19.0%*	6.3%*	1.11*	4.50*
Tom Walker ('72-'77, 1 WAR*)	2.1	83	20.9%*	7.5%*	1.28*	4.32*
Josh Collmenter ('17)	3.5	116	17.3%	5.9%	1.14	3.64
Yonny Chirinos ('24)	1.8	89	19.0%	6.6%	1.36	4.22
Pat Underwood ('79-'83, 1 WAR*)	1.7	115	20.9%*	6.3%*	1.57*	4.52*