Jack Flaherty — OGILVIE

Jack Flaherty P Detroit Tigers

+2.1 WAR

Age 30 RHP 6'4" / 225 lbs MLB Svc 8.0 · Ctrl thru 2026 peak 2.1 · 2026

ERA4.07

FIP3.93

xFIP5.82

SIERA5.58

K%27.4%

BB%8.0%

K-BB%19.4%

IP155

trajectory · 10 yrs

2.1peak

2026

K†6060

FB Velo

p2392.6

Whiff%

p5926.7%

p5022.2%

xwOBA vs

p200.347

FB (53%)

SL (26%)

SI (5%)

CU (18%)

CH-0.9 (3%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2015	19	A	Peoria Chiefs	18	18	95	410	97	31	2	17.5%	8.9%	0.6%	2.84	3.10	+2.3
2016	20	A+	Palm Beach Cardinals	24	23	134	564	126	45	8	17.2%	9.2%	1.8%	3.56	3.80	+2.3
2017	21	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	31	30	170	675	167	42	16	21.5%	6.5%	2.6%	2.70	3.54	+3.4
2018	22	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	33	33	183	741	223	63	22	29.4%	8.5%	3.2%	3.15	3.46	+3.8
2019	23	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	33	33	196	772	231	53	25	29.9%	6.9%	3.7%	2.75	3.47	+4.1
2020	24	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	9	9	40	170	49	16	6	28.8%	9.4%	3.6%	4.91	3.82	+0.5
2021	25	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	20	18	87	359	96	26	13	26.4%	7.8%	4.0%	3.40	4.08	+1.1
2022	26	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	16	15	63	275	67	29	6	22.3%	11.4%	1.6%	3.71	3.56	+1.0
2023	27	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	29	27	144	650	148	64	17	22.8%	9.8%	2.5%	4.99	3.79	+2.5
2024	28	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	28	28	162	649	194	38	24	29.9%	5.9%	3.5%	3.17	3.26	+3.7
2025	29	MLB	Detroit Tigers	31	31	161	681	188	58	23	27.6%	8.5%	3.2%	4.64	3.61	+3.1
▸ 2026 Season
2026	30	MLB	Detroit Tigers	4	4	20	88	21	14	1	23.9%	15.9%	1.1%	4.05	3.72	+0.3
ROS	30	MLB	STL	23	23	124	524	135	50	15	25.9%	9.5%	2.9%	3.79	3.72	+2.2
2026 Total	30	MLB	STL	—	—	144	612	156	64	16	25.6%	10.5%	2.7%	3.83	3.72	+2.6
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	31	MLB	STL	23	23	129	546	138	53	16	25.2%	9.7%	3.0%	4.20	4.21	+1.6
2028	32	MLB	STL	21	21	115	487	120	48	15	24.6%	9.9%	3.0%	4.27	4.32	+1.3
2029	33	MLB	STL	19	19	102	432	104	43	14	24.0%	10.0%	3.1%	4.38	4.45	+1.0
2030	34	MLB	STL	16	16	90	382	89	39	12	23.3%	10.2%	3.2%	4.51	4.59	+0.6
2031	35	MLB	STL	14	14	79	335	82	32	11	24.5%	9.7%	3.3%	4.49	4.47	+0.6
2032	36	MLB	STL	13	13	69	291	69	29	10	23.7%	9.9%	3.5%	4.58	4.63	+0.3
2033	37	MLB	STL	60	—	60	251	58	26	9	22.9%	10.2%	3.6%	4.72	4.81	+0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			276	269	1456	6034	1519	498	170	25.2%	8.3%	2.8%	3.51	3.56	+28.7
/ 200 IP	—			38	37	200	829	209	68	23	25.2%	8.3%	2.8%	3.51	3.56	+3.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jack Flaherty (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.00	26.7%	8.0%	3.2%	—	4.32	24.7%	14.8%	347	+0.32	—	—	—
Matt Buschmann R 2027 · 4.02 FIP	31	SP	4.02	17.2%	8.7%	2.3%	.282	4.83	12.8%	4.4%	142	+0.81	4.02	277	49
Matt Garza R 2027 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP	4.81	15.6%	8.1%	3.6%	.315	4.32	15.5%	7.7%	216	-0.49	4.03	365	49
Miguel González R 2027 · 4.53 FIP	31	SP	4.53	17.5%	7.9%	3.5%	.289	4.28	15.9%	9.0%	325	-0.25	3.76	469	49
Nate Long R 2025 · 4.69 FIP	29	SP	4.69	14.8%	10.6%	2.7%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.69	151	49
Tom Koehler R 2026 · 4.37 FIP	30	SP	4.37	19.0%	9.8%	3.0%	.291	4.70	22.4%	13.4%	110	+0.33	4.37	474	48
Josh Lowey R 2026 · 3.33 FIP	30	SP	3.33	21.1%	7.8%	1.8%	.311	2.31	26.7%	20.1%	231	-1.02	2.25	426	48
Jesse Chavez R 2027 · 3.95 FIP	31	SP	3.95	20.2%	6.8%	3.1%	.309	4.27	22.0%	16.2%	300	+0.32	2.03	804	47
Ubaldo Jiménez R 2027 · 3.63 FIP	31	SP	3.63	21.2%	8.5%	2.3%	.302	4.61	20.6%	10.5%	285	+0.98	3.63	469	47
Kyle Davies R 2027 · 3.55 FIP	31	SP	3.55	13.8%	6.1%	1.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	153	47
Charlie Morton R 2027 · 3.48 FIP	31	SP	3.48	17.9%	6.3%	2.0%	.302	3.15	27.7%	18.9%	331	-0.33	2.52	1,534	47
Thad Weber R 2026 · 4.64 FIP	30	SP	4.64	13.7%	6.4%	3.5%	.293	4.59	11.2%	5.7%	202	-0.05	4.36	363	47
Cory Riordan R 2026 · 4.21 FIP	30	SP	4.21	14.3%	5.0%	3.1%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	154	46
Toru Murata R 2026 · 4.02 FIP	30	SP	4.02	13.3%	6.9%	2.1%	.261	3.63	12.9%	7.2%	102	-0.39	3.63	267	46
Nestor Molina R 2026 · 4.26 FIP	30	SP	4.26	16.1%	7.4%	2.9%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	3.03	401	46
Merrill Kelly R 2026 · 4.37 FIP	30	SP	4.37	20.3%	6.8%	3.9%	.289	3.76	21.1%	14.8%	390	-0.61	3.61	1,008	46
Chase Anderson R 2026 · 4.91 FIP	30	SP	4.91	19.9%	8.9%	4.3%	.235	4.99	20.1%	11.9%	253	+0.08	3.30	1,146	45
Manuel Flores R 2026 · 3.67 FIP	30	SP	3.67	13.1%	5.7%	1.7%	.318	3.83	16.4%	10.4%	252	+0.16	3.48	515	45
Aníbal Sánchez R 2027 · 4.84 FIP	31	SP	4.84	20.9%	7.3%	4.7%	.276	4.44	22.2%	15.0%	411	-0.40	3.64	869	45
Justin Verlander R 2028 · 3.48 FIP	32	SP	3.48	21.1%	5.8%	2.6%	.265	3.17	29.6%	23.4%	648	-0.31	2.27	1,584	45
Jhoulys Chacín R 2026 · 3.68 FIP	30	SP	3.68	19.6%	8.5%	2.1%	.244	5.03	20.0%	10.1%	168	+1.35	3.68	887	45

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2017

Service 8.035 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Ext / FA-deal	$18M	+2.1	$17M	-$0.7M
Totals		$18M		$17M	-$0.7M