Jack Flaherty — OGILVIE

Jack Flaherty P Detroit Tigers

Age 30 RHP 6'4" / 225 lbs MLB Svc 8.0 · Ctrl thru 2026 peak 2.4 · 2026 ILInjured 15-Day (D15)

2026 ROS PROJECTION93 act + 9 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109100vR 92

ERA3.91

FIP3.84

K%26.6%

BB%9.2%

K-BB%17.4%

ROS IP9

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 103 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF6065

CTRL6565

CMD7070

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2592.7

Whiff%

p6227.1%

p7226.2%

xwOBA vs

p400.323

FB (54%)

SL (24%)

SI (4%)

CU (20%)

CH-0.9 (3%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2017

Service 8.035 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$1M	+0.1	$0.4M	-$1.0M
Totals		$1M		$0.4M	-$1.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	19	A MLE	Peoria Chiefs	18	18	95	410	97	31	2	100%	5.3	17.5%	8.9%	8.6%	0.6%	2.84	3.10	—
2015	19	A RAW	Peoria Chiefs	18	18	95	410	97	31	2	100%	5.3	23.7%	7.6%	16.1%	0.5%	2.84	2.31	—
2016	20	A+ MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	24	23	134	564	126	45	8	96%	5.6	17.2%	9.2%	8.0%	1.8%	3.56	3.80	—
2016	20	A+ RAW	Palm Beach Cardinals	24	23	134	564	126	45	8	96%	5.6	22.3%	8.0%	14.4%	1.4%	3.56	3.00	—
2017	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	30	170	675	167	42	16	97%	5.5	21.5%	6.5%	14.9%	2.6%	2.70	3.53	+2.8
2017	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	31	30	170	675	167	42	16	97%	5.5	24.7%	6.2%	18.5%	2.4%	2.70	3.10	+3.8
2018	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	33	183	741	223	63	22	100%	5.5	29.4%	8.5%	20.9%	3.2%	3.15	3.47	+3.2
2018	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	33	183	741	223	63	22	100%	5.5	30.1%	8.5%	21.6%	3.0%	3.15	3.26	+3.7
2019	23	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	33	33	196	772	231	53	25	100%	5.9	29.9%	6.9%	23.1%	3.5%	2.75	3.35	+3.7
2019	23	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	33	33	196	772	231	53	25	100%	5.9	29.9%	6.9%	23.1%	3.2%	2.75	3.21	+4.1
2020	24	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	9	9	40	170	49	16	6	100%	4.5	28.8%	9.4%	19.4%	3.8%	4.91	3.94	+0.5
2020	24	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	9	9	40	170	49	16	6	100%	4.5	28.8%	9.4%	19.4%	3.5%	4.91	3.79	+0.5
2021	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	20	18	87	359	96	26	13	90%	4.4	26.4%	7.8%	18.6%	4.0%	3.40	4.05	+0.9
2021	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	20	18	87	359	96	26	13	90%	4.4	26.7%	7.2%	19.5%	3.6%	3.40	3.73	+1.2
2022	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	16	15	63	275	67	29	6	94%	3.9	22.3%	11.4%	10.9%	1.9%	3.71	3.68	+0.9
2022	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	16	15	63	275	67	29	6	94%	3.9	24.4%	10.5%	13.8%	2.2%	3.71	3.59	+1.0
2023	27	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	29	27	144	650	148	64	17	93%	5.0	22.8%	9.8%	12.9%	2.6%	4.99	3.87	+1.8
2023	27	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	29	27	144	650	148	64	17	93%	5.0	22.8%	9.8%	12.9%	2.6%	4.99	3.87	+1.8
2023	27	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	29	27	144	650	148	64	17	93%	5.0	22.8%	9.8%	12.9%	2.6%	4.99	3.91	+1.7
2024	28	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	28	28	162	649	194	38	24	100%	5.8	29.9%	5.9%	24.0%	3.5%	3.17	3.26	+3.3
2024	28	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	28	28	162	649	194	38	24	100%	5.8	29.9%	5.9%	24.0%	3.5%	3.17	3.26	+3.3
2024	28	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	28	28	162	649	194	38	24	100%	5.8	29.9%	5.9%	24.0%	3.7%	3.17	3.33	+3.1
2025	29	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	31	31	161	681	188	58	23	100%	5.2	27.6%	8.5%	19.1%	3.5%	4.64	3.78	+2.2
2025	29	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	31	31	161	681	188	58	23	100%	5.2	27.6%	8.5%	19.1%	3.5%	4.64	3.78	+2.2
2025	29	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	31	31	161	681	188	58	23	100%	5.2	27.6%	8.5%	19.1%	3.4%	4.64	3.70	+2.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			209	203	1077	4509	1232	382	146	97%	5.2	27.3%	8.5%	18.9%	3.2%	3.86	3.64	+16.4
▸ 2026 season
YTD	30	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	21	21	93	417	111	43	13	100%	4.4	26.2%	10.5%	15.7%	3.0%	4.44	3.84	+1.2
YTD	30	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	21	21	93	417	111	43	13	100%	4.4	26.2%	10.5%	15.7%	3.0%	4.44	3.84	+1.2
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	30	AA RAW	DET	1	1	6	22	7	1	2	100%	5.7	31.8%	4.5%	27.3%	9.1%	3.18	5.98	—
2026	30	AAA RAW	DET	1	1	1	6	2	1	0	100%	1.3	33.3%	16.7%	16.7%	0.0%	0.00	2.40	—
2026	30	MLB RAW	DET	19	19	86	389	102	41	11	100%	4.5	26.2%	10.5%	15.7%	2.8%	4.59	3.77	+1.2
SO FAR	30	MLB RAW	DET	19	19	86	389	102	41	11	100%	4.5	26.2%	10.5%	15.7%	2.8%	4.59	3.77	+1.2
ROS	30	MLB MLE	DET	2	2	9	39	10	4	1	100%	4.7	26.6%	9.2%	17.4%	3.3%	3.91	3.84	+0.1
ROS	30	MLB CTX	DET	2	2	9	38	10	4	1	100%	4.5	26.6%	9.2%	17.4%	3.2%	3.83	3.76	+0.1
2026 TOT	30	MLB MLE	DET	—	—	103	456	121	47	14	—	—	26.6%	10.2%	16.4%	3.1%	4.39	3.84	+1.3
FULL	30	MLB A+C	DET	—	—	96	404	121	47	14	—	—	30.1%	11.5%	18.5%	3.5%	4.70	3.96	+1.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	DET	24	24	144	610	158	59	20	100%	6.0	25.9%	9.6%	16.3%	3.4%	4.29	4.35	+0.9
2028	32	MLB MLE	DET	22	22	134	564	142	57	20	100%	6.1	25.1%	10.0%	15.1%	3.6%	4.48	4.61	+0.4
2029	33	MLB MLE	DET	20	20	123	518	126	54	20	100%	6.1	24.3%	10.5%	13.8%	3.9%	4.73	4.89	+0.0
2030	34	MLB MLE	DET	19	19	112	471	110	52	20	100%	5.9	23.4%	11.0%	12.4%	4.2%	5.01	5.19	-0.4
2027	31	MLB CTX	DET	24	24	144	608	158	59	20	100%	6.0	25.9%	9.6%	16.3%	3.2%	4.21	4.27	+0.9
2028	32	MLB CTX	DET	22	22	134	566	142	57	20	100%	6.1	25.1%	10.0%	15.1%	3.5%	4.40	4.53	+0.4
2029	33	MLB CTX	DET	20	20	123	519	126	54	19	100%	6.2	24.3%	10.5%	13.8%	3.7%	4.64	4.80	+0.0
2030	34	MLB CTX	DET	19	19	112	473	111	52	19	100%	5.9	23.4%	11.0%	12.4%	4.0%	4.91	5.09	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		296	290	1599	6711	1778	607	224	98%	5.4	26.5%	9.0%	17.5%	3.3%	4.07	3.84	+20.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	36	200	840	222	76	28	98%	5.4	26.5%	9.0%	17.5%	3.3%	4.07	3.84	+2.5
Career	—	MLE		293	286	1529	6363	1607	528	183	98%	5.2	25.3%	8.3%	17.0%	2.9%	3.56	3.60	+17.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		38	37	200	832	210	69	24	98%	5.2	25.3%	8.3%	17.0%	2.9%	3.56	3.60	+2.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jack Flaherty (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.02	27.3%	7.9%	3.4%	—	4.60	25.2%	15.1%	401	+0.58	—	—	—
Chase Anderson R 2018 · 4.98 FIP	30	SP	4.98	19.9%	8.9%	4.4%	.235	4.93	20.1%	11.9%	253	-0.05	3.30	1,146	70
Kyle Gibson R 2018 · 3.97 FIP	30	SP	3.97	21.7%	9.3%	2.8%	.282	3.91	21.2%	12.9%	409	-0.06	3.56	1,689	68
Jhoulys Chacín R 2018 · 3.71 FIP	30	SP	3.71	19.6%	8.5%	2.1%	.244	5.07	20.0%	10.1%	168	+1.36	3.71	887	67
Chris Archer R 2019 · 4.90 FIP	30	SP	4.90	27.2%	10.1%	5.1%	.292	4.39	20.7%	10.4%	136	-0.51	2.85	1,018	65
Stephen Strasburg R 2018 · 3.33 FIP	30	SP	3.33	28.7%	6.6%	3.3%	.299	3.14	29.1%	22.3%	231	-0.19	2.42	811	64
Masahiro Tanaka R 2019 · 4.01 FIP	30	SP	4.01	19.6%	5.3%	3.5%	.292	4.08	22.3%	18.2%	48	+0.07	3.34	918	62
Rick Porcello R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	30	SP	4.51	18.6%	5.6%	4.1%	.303	3.13	20.7%	15.0%	59	-1.38	3.13	1,023	62
Tanner Roark R 2017 · 3.88 FIP	30	SP	3.88	21.4%	7.6%	3.0%	.294	4.48	20.3%	13.2%	393	+0.60	3.13	942	61
Tom Koehler R 2016 · 4.38 FIP	30	SP	4.38	19.0%	9.8%	3.0%	.291	4.66	22.4%	13.4%	110	+0.28	4.38	474	60
Marcus Stroman R 2021 · 3.28 FIP	30	SP	3.28	21.6%	5.8%	2.3%	.281	3.82	19.3%	11.2%	430	+0.54	3.28	1,367	59
Carlos Carrasco R 2017 · 2.85 FIP	30	SP	2.85	28.3%	5.5%	2.6%	.300	3.20	29.2%	23.4%	340	+0.35	2.67	1,455	59
Jake Arrieta R 2016 · 3.42 FIP	30	SP	3.42	23.9%	9.4%	2.1%	.237	4.07	20.3%	12.6%	477	+0.65	2.13	1,046	57
Lance Lynn R 2017 · 4.68 FIP	30	SP	4.68	19.7%	9.4%	3.7%	.237	3.25	25.9%	17.8%	449	-1.43	2.85	1,390	56
Trevor Cahill R 2018 · 3.37 FIP	30	SP	3.37	22.7%	9.8%	1.7%	.268	5.01	19.9%	10.6%	164	+1.64	3.37	556	56
Michael Pineda R 2019 · 3.79 FIP	30	SP	3.79	23.3%	4.5%	3.8%	.288	4.20	18.0%	13.4%	208	+0.41	2.00	786	56
Corey Kluber R 2016 · 3.10 FIP	30	SP	3.10	26.4%	6.5%	2.6%	.267	2.73	29.6%	25.0%	454	-0.37	2.26	1,190	55
Miles Mikolas R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	30	SP	4.11	18.8%	4.1%	3.8%	.295	4.02	18.4%	13.4%	266	-0.09	3.13	1,296	55
Garrett Richards R 2018 · 3.99 FIP	30	SP	3.99	26.9%	10.5%	3.3%	.276	4.36	19.4%	10.3%	188	+0.37	2.31	577	55
Mike Leake R 2018 · 3.97 FIP	30	SP	3.97	15.2%	4.0%	3.0%	.301	5.05	15.2%	12.2%	197	+1.08	3.69	937	54
Collin McHugh R 2017 · 3.60 FIP	30	SP	3.60	21.0%	7.2%	2.5%	.309	3.35	29.5%	21.0%	147	-0.25	1.77	806	53

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.3	131	25.3%	9.7%	1.41	4.49
Triston McKenzie ('24)	2.1	105	26.0%	9.4%	1.52	3.94
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Kutter Crawford ('24)	2.0	130	23.9%	7.2%	1.45	4.47
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58