Jack Flaherty — OGILVIE

Jack Flaherty P Detroit Tigers

Age 30 RHP 6'4" / 225 lbs MLB Svc 8.0 · Ctrl thru 2026 peak 2.4 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION88 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10798vR 89

ERA3.72

FIP3.69

K%26.7%

BB%9.2%

K-BB%17.5%

ROS IP65

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 153 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF6065

CTRL6565

CMD7070

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2692.8

Whiff%

p6227.2%

p7326.4%

xwOBA vs

p420.321

FB (54%)

SL (24%)

SI (5%)

CU (20%)

CH-0.9 (3%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2017

Service 8.035 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$7M	+1.3	$10M	+$3M
Totals		$7M		$10M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2015	19	A	Peoria Chiefs	18	18	95	410	97	31	2	100%	5.3	17.5%	8.9%	8.6%	0.6%	2.84	3.11	—
2015	19	A	Peoria Chiefs	18	18	95	410	97	31	2	100%	5.3	23.7%	7.6%	16.1%	0.5%	2.84	2.31	—
2016	20	A+	Palm Beach Cardinals	24	23	134	564	126	45	8	96%	5.6	17.2%	9.2%	8.0%	1.9%	3.56	3.83	—
2016	20	A+	Palm Beach Cardinals	24	23	134	564	126	45	8	96%	5.6	22.3%	8.0%	14.4%	1.4%	3.56	3.00	—
2017	21	MIX	3 levels	31	30	170	675	167	42	16	97%	5.5	21.5%	6.5%	14.9%	2.5%	2.70	3.49	+3.8
2017	21	MIX	3 levels	31	30	170	675	167	42	16	97%	5.5	24.7%	6.2%	18.5%	2.4%	2.70	3.10	+4.6
2018	22	MIX	2 levels	33	33	183	741	223	63	22	100%	5.5	29.4%	8.5%	20.9%	3.1%	3.15	3.39	+4.3
2018	22	MIX	2 levels	33	33	183	741	223	63	22	100%	5.5	30.1%	8.5%	21.6%	3.0%	3.15	3.26	+4.6
2019	23	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	33	33	196	772	231	53	25	100%	5.9	29.9%	6.9%	23.1%	3.3%	2.75	3.23	+5.0
2019	23	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	33	33	196	772	231	53	25	100%	5.9	29.9%	6.9%	23.1%	3.2%	2.75	3.21	+5.0
2020	24	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	9	9	40	170	49	16	6	100%	4.5	28.8%	9.4%	19.4%	3.5%	4.91	3.81	+0.4
2020	24	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	9	9	40	170	49	16	6	100%	4.5	28.8%	9.4%	19.4%	3.5%	4.91	3.79	+0.4
2021	25	MIX	3 levels	20	18	87	359	96	26	13	90%	4.4	26.4%	7.8%	18.6%	3.7%	3.40	3.91	+1.2
2021	25	MIX	3 levels	20	18	87	359	96	26	13	90%	4.4	26.7%	7.2%	19.5%	3.6%	3.40	3.73	+1.4
2022	26	MIX	3 levels	16	15	63	275	67	29	6	94%	3.9	22.3%	11.4%	10.9%	1.7%	3.71	3.61	+0.7
2022	26	MIX	3 levels	16	15	63	275	67	29	6	94%	3.9	24.4%	10.5%	13.8%	2.2%	3.71	3.59	+0.8
2023	27	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	29	27	144	650	148	64	17	93%	5.0	22.8%	9.8%	12.9%	2.4%	4.99	3.76	+2.8
2023	27	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	29	27	144	650	148	64	17	93%	5.0	22.8%	9.8%	12.9%	2.6%	4.99	3.91	+2.5
2024	28	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	28	28	162	649	194	38	24	100%	5.8	29.9%	5.9%	24.0%	3.9%	3.17	3.47	+3.7
2024	28	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	28	28	162	649	194	38	24	100%	5.8	29.9%	5.9%	24.0%	3.7%	3.17	3.33	+3.9
2025	29	MLB	Detroit Tigers	31	31	161	681	188	58	23	100%	5.2	27.6%	8.5%	19.1%	3.7%	4.64	3.87	+2.9
2025	29	MLB	Detroit Tigers	31	31	161	681	188	58	23	100%	5.2	27.6%	8.5%	19.1%	3.4%	4.64	3.70	+3.2
▸ 2026 Season
2026	30	MLB	Detroit Tigers	19	19	88	393	105	40	11	100%	4.6	26.4%	10.5%	15.9%	2.4%	4.40	3.53	+1.7
ROS	30	MLB	DET	11	11	65	274	73	25	8	100%	5.9	26.7%	9.2%	17.5%	3.1%	3.72	3.69	+0.7
ROS	30	MLB	DET	11	11	65	274	73	25	8	100%	5.9	26.7%	9.2%	17.5%	2.9%	3.65	3.62	+0.8
2026 TOT	30	MLB	DET	—	—	153	667	178	65	19	—	—	26.7%	9.8%	17.0%	2.9%	4.11	3.60	+3.2
2026 FULL	30	MLB	DET	—	—	147	621	178	65	19	—	—	28.7%	10.5%	18.2%	3.1%	4.24	3.69	+2.9
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	31	MLB	DET	24	24	144	610	159	58	20	100%	6.0	26.1%	9.6%	16.5%	3.3%	4.21	4.29	+1.9
2028	32	MLB	DET	22	22	134	564	142	56	20	100%	6.1	25.3%	10.0%	15.3%	3.5%	4.41	4.55	+1.3
2029	33	MLB	DET	20	20	123	518	126	54	20	100%	6.1	24.4%	10.4%	14.0%	3.8%	4.66	4.83	+0.8
2027	31	MLB	DET	24	24	144	608	158	58	19	100%	6.0	26.1%	9.6%	16.5%	3.1%	4.13	4.21	+2.0
2028	32	MLB	DET	22	22	134	566	143	56	19	100%	6.1	25.3%	10.0%	15.3%	3.4%	4.33	4.47	+1.5
2029	33	MLB	DET	20	20	123	519	127	54	19	100%	6.2	24.4%	10.4%	14.0%	3.6%	4.57	4.74	+0.9
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			289	283	1538	6456	1729	574	209	98%	5.3	26.8%	8.9%	17.9%	3.2%	3.97	3.74	+29.8
/ 200 IP	—			38	37	200	839	225	75	27	98%	5.3	26.8%	8.9%	17.9%	3.2%	3.97	3.74	+3.9
Career	—			291	284	1524	6339	1602	525	178	98%	5.2	25.3%	8.3%	17.0%	2.8%	3.56	3.56	+32.8
/ 200 IP	—			38	37	200	832	210	69	23	98%	5.2	25.3%	8.3%	17.0%	2.8%	3.56	3.56	+4.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jack Flaherty (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.11	27.3%	7.9%	3.5%	—	4.54	25.3%	15.3%	401	+0.43	—	—	—
Kodai Senga R 2026 · 3.40 FIP	30	SP	3.40	29.1%	11.1%	2.5%	.274	4.64	22.8%	10.3%	164	+1.24	3.40	330	48
Ian Kennedy R 2026 · 4.46 FIP	30	SP	4.46	24.4%	6.7%	4.7%	.293	4.91	21.1%	13.0%	469	+0.45	2.87	864	47
Mike Fiers R 2026 · 3.72 FIP	30	SP	3.72	23.7%	7.8%	3.0%	.277	4.56	19.9%	13.3%	494	+0.84	3.72	918	46
Jason Hammel R 2028 · 3.43 FIP	32	SP	3.43	24.2%	5.1%	3.2%	.282	4.26	18.4%	11.9%	474	+0.83	3.43	645	46
Ubaldo Jiménez R 2027 · 3.67 FIP	31	SP	3.67	21.2%	8.5%	2.4%	.302	4.58	20.6%	10.5%	285	+0.91	3.67	469	46
Merrill Kelly R 2026 · 4.21 FIP	30	SP	4.21	20.3%	6.8%	3.6%	.289	3.67	21.1%	14.8%	390	-0.54	3.54	1,102	45
Jesse Chavez R 2027 · 3.80 FIP	31	SP	3.80	20.2%	6.8%	2.8%	.309	4.37	22.0%	16.2%	300	+0.57	2.03	804	45
James Shields R 2029 · 4.36 FIP	33	SP	4.36	25.1%	8.8%	4.1%	.292	5.12	17.9%	8.6%	517	+0.76	4.36	720	45
Josh Lowey R 2026 · 3.30 FIP	30	SP	3.30	21.1%	7.8%	1.8%	.311	2.34	26.7%	20.1%	231	-0.96	2.28	426	45
Chris Bassitt R 2026 · 4.10 FIP	30	SP	4.10	23.0%	7.7%	3.6%	.258	3.32	23.2%	16.9%	402	-0.78	3.02	1,507	44
Tom Koehler R 2026 · 4.39 FIP	30	SP	4.39	19.0%	9.8%	3.0%	.291	4.71	22.4%	13.4%	110	+0.32	4.39	474	44
Yu Darvish R 2026 · 3.79 FIP	30	SP	3.79	27.3%	7.4%	3.7%	.279	3.41	30.7%	23.5%	295	-0.38	1.91	1,253	42
Jhoulys Chacín R 2026 · 3.82 FIP	30	SP	3.82	19.6%	8.5%	2.4%	.244	4.93	20.0%	10.1%	168	+1.11	3.79	887	42
Aníbal Sánchez R 2027 · 4.89 FIP	31	SP	4.89	20.9%	7.3%	4.8%	.276	4.56	22.2%	15.0%	411	-0.33	3.49	869	42
Miguel González R 2027 · 4.59 FIP	31	SP	4.59	17.5%	7.9%	3.6%	.289	4.25	15.9%	9.0%	325	-0.34	3.73	469	42
Lance Lynn R 2026 · 4.55 FIP	30	SP	4.55	19.7%	9.4%	3.5%	.237	3.28	25.9%	17.8%	449	-1.27	2.87	1,390	42
Justin Verlander R 2028 · 3.51 FIP	32	SP	3.51	21.1%	5.8%	2.7%	.265	3.18	29.6%	23.4%	648	-0.33	2.24	1,584	42
Jarrett Grube R 2029 · 3.49 FIP	33	SP	3.49	18.7%	4.2%	2.6%	.285	4.58	17.3%	9.6%	253	+1.09	3.49	393	42
Chase Anderson R 2026 · 5.21 FIP	30	SP	5.21	19.9%	8.9%	4.9%	.235	5.07	20.1%	11.9%	253	-0.14	3.42	1,146	41
Kyle Gibson R 2026 · 3.96 FIP	30	SP	3.96	21.7%	9.3%	2.8%	.282	3.94	21.2%	12.9%	409	-0.02	3.60	1,689	41

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4	139	25.8%	9.4%	1.36	4.34
Triston McKenzie ('24)	4	105	26.0%	9.4%	1.52	3.94
Danny Salazar ('17)	3	142	28.1%	9.0%	1.12	3.79
Nate Karns ('17)	3	96	24.2%	9.3%	1.22	4.24
Chris Archer ('22)	6	164	26.9%	8.3%	1.21	4.10
Kutter Crawford ('24)	3	130	23.9%	7.2%	1.45	4.47
Luis Garcia ('23)	3	113	25.5%	7.7%	1.19	3.63