Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 19 | ROK | GCL Marlins | 8 | 1 | 8 | 27 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 12% | 1.0 | 25.9% | 3.7% | 22.2% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 1.38 | — |
| 2015 | 19 | ROK | GCL Marlins | 8 | 1 | 8 | 27 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 12% | 1.0 | 25.9% | 3.7% | 22.2% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 1.73 | — |
| 2016 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 0 | 50 | 190 | 69 | 10 | 2 | 0% | 1.8 | 27.3% | 6.2% | 21.1% | 1.2% | 2.32 | 2.22 | — |
| 2016 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 0 | 50 | 190 | 69 | 10 | 2 | 0% | 1.8 | 36.3% | 5.3% | 31.1% | 1.1% | 2.32 | 1.47 | — |
| 2017 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 56 | 239 | 59 | 18 | 5 | 0% | 1.4 | 21.0% | 6.5% | 14.5% | 2.2% | 3.23 | 3.34 | — |
| 2017 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 56 | 239 | 59 | 18 | 5 | 0% | 1.4 | 24.7% | 7.5% | 17.2% | 2.1% | 3.23 | 3.12 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 0 | 63 | 253 | 81 | 29 | 3 | 0% | 1.4 | 27.4% | 12.2% | 15.2% | 1.4% | 3.00 | 3.10 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 0 | 63 | 253 | 81 | 29 | 3 | 0% | 1.4 | 32.0% | 11.5% | 20.6% | 1.2% | 3.00 | 2.53 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 56 | 0 | 59 | 274 | 79 | 35 | 15 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.3% | 13.0% | 14.3% | 5.5% | 5.03 | 5.48 | -0.6 |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 56 | 0 | 59 | 274 | 79 | 35 | 15 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.8% | 12.8% | 16.1% | 5.5% | 5.03 | 5.51 | -0.7 |
| 2020 | 24 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 6 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 0.6 | 30.0% | 10.0% | 20.0% | 5.0% | 7.36 | 4.58 | -0.0 |
| 2020 | 24 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 6 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 0.6 | 30.0% | 10.0% | 20.0% | 5.0% | 7.36 | 5.01 | -0.0 |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 0 | 55 | 226 | 75 | 25 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 31.2% | 11.3% | 19.9% | 2.1% | 2.95 | 3.06 | +1.0 |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 0 | 55 | 226 | 75 | 25 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 33.2% | 11.1% | 22.1% | 1.8% | 2.95 | 2.68 | +1.2 |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 0 | 44 | 180 | 57 | 18 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 30.8% | 10.1% | 20.7% | 3.1% | 3.71 | 3.46 | +0.6 |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 0 | 44 | 180 | 57 | 18 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 31.7% | 10.0% | 21.7% | 2.8% | 3.71 | 3.21 | +0.7 |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 10 | 0 | 9 | 41 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 0.9 | 19.5% | 7.3% | 12.2% | 0.0% | 6.00 | 2.38 | +0.2 |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 10 | 0 | 9 | 41 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 0.9 | 19.5% | 7.3% | 12.2% | 0.0% | 6.00 | 2.32 | +0.2 |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 31 | 2 | 27 | 115 | 37 | 21 | 2 | 6% | 0.9 | 28.6% | 20.2% | 8.3% | 1.2% | 3.00 | 3.93 | +0.2 |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 31 | 2 | 27 | 115 | 37 | 21 | 2 | 6% | 0.9 | 32.2% | 18.3% | 13.9% | 1.7% | 3.00 | 3.66 | +0.3 |
| 2025 | 29 | MIX | 3 levels | 42 | 0 | 41 | 174 | 60 | 19 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.6% | 11.0% | 17.5% | 2.7% | 2.40 | 3.58 | +0.5 |
| 2025 | 29 | MIX | 3 levels | 42 | 0 | 41 | 174 | 60 | 19 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 34.5% | 10.9% | 23.6% | 2.3% | 2.40 | 2.83 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | LAA | 52 | 0 | 55 | 232 | 68 | 32 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 29.4% | 13.8% | 15.6% | 3.0% | 4.24 | 4.38 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | LAA | 49 | 0 | 51 | 216 | 62 | 31 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.7% | 14.2% | 14.5% | 3.2% | 4.46 | 4.61 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | LAA | 45 | 0 | 47 | 200 | 56 | 29 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.9% | 14.6% | 13.3% | 3.5% | 4.70 | 4.86 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | LAA | 41 | 0 | 44 | 184 | 50 | 28 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.0% | 15.0% | 12.0% | 3.7% | 4.97 | 5.14 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | LAA | 15 | 0 | 16 | 68 | 19 | 10 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.7% | 14.2% | 14.5% | 3.2% | 4.46 | 4.61 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | LAA | 23 | 0 | 24 | 101 | 28 | 15 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.9% | 14.6% | 13.3% | 3.5% | 4.70 | 4.86 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | LAA | 27 | 0 | 28 | 118 | 32 | 18 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.0% | 15.0% | 12.0% | 3.7% | 4.97 | 5.14 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 207 | 0 | 198 | 866 | 255 | 120 | 29 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.5% | 13.9% | 15.6% | 3.4% | 4.65 | 4.22 | +2.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 209 | 0 | 200 | 875 | 258 | 121 | 29 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.5% | 13.9% | 15.6% | 3.4% | 4.65 | 4.22 | +2.8 | ||
| Career | — | 357 | 3 | 416 | 1739 | 476 | 186 | 44 | 1% | 1.2 | 27.4% | 10.7% | 16.7% | 2.5% | 3.29 | 3.52 | +9.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 172 | 1 | 200 | 837 | 229 | 89 | 21 | 1% | 1.2 | 27.4% | 10.7% | 16.7% | 2.5% | 3.29 | 3.52 | +4.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| José Quijada (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.38 | 29.4% | 13.8% | 3.0% | — | 4.86 | 27.9% | 13.3% | 142 | +0.48 | — | — | — |
| Justin Wilson L 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.48 | 29.2% | 13.6% | 2.1% | .308 | 3.86 | 24.0% | 13.5% | 93 | +0.38 | 2.48 | 420 | 75 |
| Mike Dunn L 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.76 | 27.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .294 | 4.09 | 22.5% | 10.9% | 110 | +0.33 | 3.72 | 181 | 72 |
| Jake Diekman L 2025 · 3.25 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.25 | 26.7% | 11.3% | 1.8% | .241 | 3.03 | 28.6% | 15.8% | 115 | -0.22 | 2.33 | 455 | 70 |
| Anthony Gose L 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.64 | 29.9% | 19.7% | 2.9% | .250 | 4.15 | 28.1% | 14.7% | 66 | -0.49 | 3.88 | 207 | 67 |
| Brian Moran L 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.29 | 26.9% | 10.0% | 2.2% | .269 | 3.00 | 25.5% | 18.5% | 99 | -0.29 | 1.67 | 421 | 67 |
| Sammy Solís L 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.16 | 26.2% | 8.9% | 3.9% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.51 | 190 | 65 |
| Kevin Siegrist L 2024 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.00 | 25.0% | 11.6% | 2.8% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.67 | 176 | 65 |
| Antonio Bastardo L 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.29 | 24.9% | 9.8% | 3.7% | .268 | 8.16 | 15.0% | -1.4% | 20 | +3.87 | 3.04 | 145 | 64 |
| Ryan Buchter L 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.42 | 24.3% | 9.3% | 4.0% | .202 | 4.09 | 25.3% | 15.6% | 85 | -0.33 | 2.37 | 296 | 64 |
| Kyle Regnault L 2025 · 3.81 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.81 | 27.6% | 9.7% | 3.3% | .367 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.83 | 204 | 64 |
| Zack Britton L 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.88 | 20.1% | 12.4% | 1.7% | .234 | 3.56 | 21.1% | 8.3% | 99 | -0.32 | 1.59 | 309 | 63 |
| James Pazos L 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.38 | 26.0% | 12.0% | 3.5% | .350 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.55 | 261 | 63 |
| Adam Loewen L 2027 · 3.90 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.90 | 25.1% | 15.9% | 1.7% | .287 | 3.58 | 23.2% | 7.3% | 98 | -0.32 | 2.96 | 176 | 62 |
| Tommy Layne L 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.58 | 21.7% | 12.1% | 1.4% | .284 | 3.34 | 20.2% | 11.0% | 97 | -0.24 | 1.32 | 182 | 61 |
| Fernando Abad L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.73 | 20.7% | 10.1% | 2.0% | .271 | 2.91 | 21.8% | 17.1% | 88 | -0.82 | 2.35 | 306 | 61 |
| Chasen Shreve L 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.94 | 33.3% | 11.8% | 3.9% | .250 | 4.44 | 21.9% | 12.4% | 127 | +0.50 | 3.94 | 470 | 61 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.48 | 23.7% | 11.1% | 3.6% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 172 | 61 |
| Aaron Loup L 2026 · 3.20 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.20 | 24.0% | 7.7% | 2.1% | .364 | 2.51 | 25.1% | 18.8% | 82 | -0.69 | 2.07 | 363 | 61 |
| Adam Morgan L 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.82 | 27.6% | 10.3% | 5.0% | .333 | 4.02 | 26.9% | 18.7% | 42 | -0.80 | 3.49 | 522 | 60 |
| Jeff Beliveau L 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.55 | 25.2% | 11.3% | 3.9% | .261 | 3.76 | 23.3% | 8.9% | 26 | -0.79 | 3.10 | 137 | 60 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 49 | 28.3% | 14.3% | 1.28 | 4.57 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |
| Kyle Barraclough ('19) | 5 | 50 | 29.0% | 14.1% | 0.86 | 3.53 |
| Michael Kopech ('24) | 4 | 96 | 26.1% | 12.5% | 1.45 | 4.15 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |