Josh Naylor — OGILVIE

Josh Naylor1B Seattle Mariners

Age 29 L/L 5'10" / 235 lbs MLB HR -5% Svc 6.738 · Ctrl thru 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION389 act + 259 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 101118vR 124

AVG/OBP/SLG.268 / .330 / .425

PA259

HR8

SB10

K%13

BB%8

BABIP284

ISO157

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 55 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT55

Whiff%

778.1%

xwOBA

710.333

POWER45

Barrel%

406.9

Avg EV

4989.1

Bat Spd

4070.3

EYE40

Chase%

6628.6%

SPEED30

Sprint

1024.6

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1350 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

393

957

—

wRC+

125

▶▶R

wOBA

314

349

▶R

ISO

155

196

▶▶R

BABIP

283

272

◀L

18.8%

14.0%

▶▶R

BB%

6.4%

8.3%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2019

Service 6.738 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2027

NTC

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$7M	+0.4	$1M	-$6M
2027	Ext	$18M	+2.1	$16M	-$1M
2028	Ext	$18M	+1.6	$11M	-$4M
2029	Ext	$18M	+1.1	$7M	-$6M
2030	Ext	$18M	+0.4	$1M	-$11M
Totals		$81M		$36M	-$28M

Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$28M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2015	18	ROK	GCL Marlins	—	105	99	26	3	1	1	3	16	1	1	0	263	291	343	635	81	298	15	3	264	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	18	ROK	GCL Marlins	—	105	98	32	4	1	1	4	11	1	1	0	327	359	418	778	92	352	10	4	342	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	A	2 teams	—	514	490	106	23	2	7	16	122	3	11	4	216	246	314	560	98	271	24	3	243	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	A	2 teams	—	514	481	127	29	2	12	25	84	3	11	4	264	305	407	712	143	296	16	5	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	A+	3 teams	—	571	531	126	25	2	12	33	132	4	11	2	237	287	360	647	122	292	23	6	282	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	A+	3 teams	—	571	518	147	31	2	13	46	98	4	11	2	284	347	427	773	143	327	17	8	344	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	AA	San Antonio Missions	—	574	528	136	17	1	25	37	88	7	5	5	258	315	436	750	178	266	15	6	325	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	AA	San Antonio Missions	—	574	501	149	22	1	17	64	69	7	5	5	297	385	447	832	150	317	12	11	372	143	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	MLB	3 teams	—	614	562	140	35	1	20	49	122	1	7	2	249	310	422	732	173	284	20	8	318	102	+1	+1	-7	-7	+17	0.6
2019	22	MLB	3 teams	—	614	552	152	36	1	19	58	105	1	7	2	275	345	447	792	172	309	17	9	351	127	+19	+1	-7	-7	+17	2.4
2020	23	MLB	Cleveland Indians	—	104	98	24	3	1	1	5	12	1	1	0	245	288	327	615	82	271	12	5	275	68	-4	+0	+0	-1	+3	-0.1
2020	23	MLB	Cleveland Indians	—	104	97	24	3	1	1	5	12	1	1	0	247	288	330	618	82	274	12	5	279	71	-3	+0	+0	-1	+3	-0.1
2021	24	MLB	Cleveland Indians	—	250	234	59	13	0	7	14	45	2	1	0	252	300	397	697	145	286	18	6	305	91	-2	+0	-1	-3	+7	0.1
2021	24	MLB	Cleveland Indians	—	250	233	59	13	0	7	14	45	2	1	0	253	300	399	699	146	287	18	6	311	96	-1	+0	-1	-3	+7	0.3
2022	25	MLB	2 teams	—	523	470	119	30	0	20	42	80	6	6	1	253	322	445	767	191	264	15	8	327	109	+5	+1	-2	-9	+15	1.0
2022	25	MLB	2 teams	—	523	469	119	30	0	20	43	80	6	6	1	254	324	446	770	192	265	15	8	338	117	+10	+1	-2	-9	+15	1.5
2023	26	MLB	Cleveland Guardians	—	495	452	139	31	0	17	33	68	3	10	3	308	359	489	848	181	326	14	7	352	128	+15	+1	+1	-9	+14	2.2
2023	26	MLB	Cleveland Guardians	—	495	452	139	31	0	17	33	68	3	10	3	308	359	489	848	181	326	14	7	369	141	+23	+1	+1	-9	+14	3.0
2024	27	MLB	Cleveland Guardians	—	633	564	137	27	0	31	58	105	7	6	2	243	321	456	777	213	245	17	9	330	111	+8	+0	-5	-11	+18	1.0
2024	27	MLB	Cleveland Guardians	—	633	563	137	27	0	31	58	105	7	6	2	243	321	456	778	213	246	17	9	342	120	+14	+0	-5	-11	+18	1.7
2025	28	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	604	547	163	30	1	21	48	83	4	30	2	298	359	472	831	174	317	14	8	358	132	+22	+5	-4	-11	+17	3.0
2025	28	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	604	543	160	29	1	20	48	83	4	30	2	295	354	462	816	168	315	14	8	358	132	+22	+5	-4	-11	+17	3.0
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	29	MLB	SEA	—	389	354	89	12	0	8	30	49	4	18	4	251	317	353	670	102	272	13	8	297	86	-6	+2	-1	-7	+11	-0.1
YTD	29	MLB	SEA	—	389	353	89	12	0	8	30	49	4	18	4	252	317	354	671	102	273	13	8	304	91	-4	+2	-1	-7	+11	0.1
ROS	29	MLB	SEA	100%	259	235	63	13	0	8	20	35	2	10	3	268	330	425	755	157	287	13	8	335	115	+4	+1	+2	-5	+7	1.0
ROS	29	MLB	SEA	100%	259	235	62	13	0	7	20	35	2	10	3	264	327	409	735	145	284	14	8	325	107	+2	+1	+2	-5	+7	0.8
FULL	29	MLB	SEA	—	648	589	151	25	0	15	50	84	6	28	7	256	321	375	696	119	276	13	8	308	94	-4	+3	+2	-12	+18	0.7
TOT	29	MLB	SEA	—	648	589	152	25	0	16	50	84	6	28	7	258	322	382	704	124	277	13	8	312	97	-2	+3	+2	-12	+18	0.9
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	30	MLB	SEA	100%	635	574	153	31	0	18	50	88	6	22	6	267	332	415	746	148	287	14	8	334	113	+10	+2	+4	-11	+18	2.3
2028	31	MLB	SEA	100%	623	563	148	30	0	17	49	89	6	19	5	263	328	407	735	144	284	14	8	329	110	+7	+2	+3	-11	+18	1.9
2029	32	MLB	SEA	100%	610	552	142	28	0	16	48	89	5	15	4	257	322	395	717	138	280	15	8	322	104	+3	+1	+2	-11	+17	1.3
2030	33	MLB	SEA	100%	526	476	119	23	0	13	41	80	4	10	3	250	315	380	695	130	274	15	8	313	98	-1	+1	+1	-9	+15	0.6
2031	34	MLB	SEA	100%	445	404	98	18	0	11	34	70	4	6	2	243	308	369	677	126	267	16	8	302	90	-5	+0	-1	-8	+13	-0.1
2027	30	MLB	SEA	100%	635	574	153	31	0	18	50	88	6	22	6	267	332	415	746	148	285	14	8	323	106	+4	+2	+4	-11	+18	1.7
2028	31	MLB	SEA	100%	623	563	147	29	0	17	49	89	6	19	5	261	327	403	730	142	282	14	8	319	102	+1	+2	+3	-11	+18	1.3
2029	32	MLB	SEA	100%	610	552	142	28	0	16	48	89	5	15	4	257	322	395	717	138	277	15	8	312	97	-2	+1	+2	-11	+17	0.8
2030	33	MLB	SEA	100%	526	476	118	22	0	13	41	80	4	10	3	248	313	376	689	128	272	15	8	304	91	-6	+1	+1	-9	+15	0.2
2031	34	MLB	SEA	100%	445	404	97	18	0	10	34	70	4	6	2	240	305	359	664	119	264	16	8	293	83	-9	+0	-1	-8	+13	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	5961	5394	1416	287	2	185	463	908	50	137	32	263	326	419	746	157	284	15	8	327	108	+57	+15	-6	-106	+169	13.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	588	154	31	0	20	50	99	5	15	3	262	324	417	741	155	283	15	8	327	108	+6	+2	-1	-12	+18	1.5
Career	—			—	8085	7379	1898	380	9	245	580	1324	66	171	44	257	317	411	728	154	282	16	7	318	101	+13	+17	-6	-137	+229	11.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	593	154	31	1	20	47	106	5	14	4	260	319	417	736	157	285	16	7	318	101	+1	+1	-0	-11	+18	0.9

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2015	18	ROK	GCL Marlins	—	105	98	32	4	1	1	4	11	1	1	0	327	359	418	778	92	352	10	4	342	120	+2	+0	—	—	+3	0.6
2016	19	A+	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	144	139	35	5	0	3	3	22	0	1	1	252	268	353	620	101	276	15	2	272	66	-5	-0	—	—	+4	-0.2
2016	19	A	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	370	342	92	24	2	9	22	62	3	10	3	269	319	430	749	161	304	17	6	329	110	+4	+1	—	—	+10	1.6
2017	20	AA	San Antonio Missions	—	175	156	39	9	0	2	16	36	1	2	1	250	324	346	670	96	308	21	9	303	90	-2	+0	—	—	+5	0.3
2017	20	A+	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	313	283	84	16	2	8	27	48	2	7	1	297	362	452	814	155	333	15	9	362	135	+12	+1	—	—	+9	2.3
2017	20	INTL	Peoria Javelinas	—	83	79	24	6	0	3	3	14	1	2	0	304	337	494	831	190	339	17	4	366	138	+4	+0	—	—	+2	0.6
2018	21	AA	San Antonio Missions	—	574	501	149	22	1	17	64	69	7	5	5	297	385	447	832	150	317	12	11	372	143	+28	-1	—	—	+16	4.4
2019	22	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	279	253	63	15	0	8	25	64	0	1	1	249	317	403	720	154	302	23	9	321	104	+1	-0	-7	-7	+8	-0.4
2019	22	AAA	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	252	223	70	20	1	10	28	30	0	1	0	314	390	547	938	233	326	12	11	408	171	+20	+0	—	—	+7	2.8
2019	22	INTL	Leones del Escogido	—	83	76	19	1	0	1	5	11	1	5	1	250	301	303	604	53	281	13	6	277	70	-3	+1	—	—	+2	0.0
2020	23	MLB	Cleveland Indians	—	104	97	24	3	1	1	5	12	1	1	0	247	288	330	618	82	274	12	5	279	71	-3	+0	+0	-1	+3	-0.1
2021	24	MLB	Cleveland Indians	—	250	233	59	13	0	7	14	45	2	1	0	253	300	399	699	146	287	18	6	311	96	-1	+0	-1	-3	+7	0.3
2022	25	MLB	Cleveland Guardians	—	498	449	115	28	0	20	38	80	6	6	1	256	323	452	775	196	268	16	8	340	118	+10	+1	-2	-9	+14	1.4
2022	25	AAA	Columbus Clippers	—	25	20	4	2	0	0	5	0	0	0	0	200	360	300	660	100	200	0	20	315	99	-0	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
2023	26	MLB	Cleveland Guardians	—	495	452	139	31	0	17	33	68	3	10	3	308	359	489	848	181	326	14	7	369	141	+23	+1	+1	-9	+14	3.0
2024	27	MLB	Cleveland Guardians	—	633	563	137	27	0	31	58	105	7	6	2	243	321	456	778	213	246	17	9	342	120	+14	+0	-5	-11	+18	1.7
2025	28	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	604	543	160	29	1	20	48	83	4	30	2	295	354	462	816	168	315	14	8	358	132	+22	+5	-4	-11	+17	3.0
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	2863	2590	697	146	2	104	221	457	23	55	9	269	331	447	779	178	289	16	8	343	120	+66	+7	-18	-51	+81	8.8

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Brandon Beltlast yr '23 career totals — 13 seasons, 5,483 PA	13	5,483	194	47	261	357	460	-96	-62	19.3	18.2
	/162	664	23	6	261	357	460	-11.7	-7.5	2.3	pk7: 17
#2Kendrys Moraleslast yr '19 career totals — 13 seasons, 5,357 PA	13	5,357	213	6	265	327	453	-95	-16	14.9	15.2
	/162	664	26	1	265	327	453	-11.8	-2.0	1.8	pk7: 16
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 14 projected seasons	14	6,731	211	165	264	325	422	-120	-55	15.5	14.9
	/162	664	21	16	264	325	422	-11.9	-5.5	1.5	pk7: 14
#3Wil Myerslast yr '23 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,290 PA	11	4,290	156	107	252	326	437	-47	-45	10.7	10.7
#3Wil Myerslast yr '23 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,290 PA	/162	664	24	17	252	326	437	-7.3	-6.9	1.7	pk7: 11
#4Jeff Francoeurlast yr '16 career totals — 11 seasons, 5,633 PA	11	5,633	160	54	262	304	417	-60	-26	6.8	9.0
	/162	664	19	6	262	304	417	-7.1	-3.1	0.8	pk7: 11
#5C.J. Cronlast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,043 PA	10	4,043	187	10	260	320	471	-72	-46	8.9	8.9
#5C.J. Cronlast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,043 PA	/162	664	31	2	260	320	471	-11.9	-7.6	1.5	pk7: 9
#6Mitch Morelandlast yr '21 career totals — 12 seasons, 4,536 PA	12	4,536	186	11	251	318	446	-81	-56	5.9	6.1
	/162	664	27	2	251	318	446	-11.9	-8.1	0.9	pk7: 6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Josh Naylor (OGILVIE)	29	55	45	30	40	258/322/382	124	277	16	28	13%	8%	97	+0.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Adam Frazier 2021 · MLB	29	53→63	47→50	39→50	51	260/321/402	142	284	13	5	14%	7%	105	+2.1	268/329/380	112	299	8	10	13%	7%	102	+1.9	262/325/369	106	293	7	11	12%	7%	95	+1.3
●Ross Gload 2005 · MLB	29	58	50→55	36→40	52	287/347/443	156	317	17	4	15%	8%	127	+3.6	289/330/461	172	315	18	6	14%	6%	124	+3.4	296/331/467	171	319	17	6	13%	4%	124	+1.5
✕Chris Richard 2003 · MLB	29	50→53	52→60	41→50	51	253/320/427	174	283	18	10	18%	8%	111	+2.5	243/309/400	157	286	17	8	21%	8%	100	+1.7	232/305/416	184	286	22	8	26%	7%	102	+1.4
✕Robert Fick 2003 · MLB	29	53→54	52→55	37→40	53	266/332/439	172	287	19	2	15%	8%	119	+3.1	254/324/400	146	273	15	3	13%	9%	106	+2.2	249/326/380	131	266	13	1	12%	9%	96	+0.8
●Andrew Benintendi 2022 · MLB	28	53→63	51→55	42→50	50	265/328/429	165	308	17	10	20%	8%	115	+2.8	269/333/390	121	311	11	10	16%	9%	107	+2.2	260/327/373	113	298	10	9	16%	9%	96	+1.4
●Raul Lopez 2008 · AAA	29	55→62	47→50	37→40	52	271/326/405	134	295	14	4	14%	7%	108	+2.3	267/322/414	147	293	17	5	15%	8%	109	+2.4	276/335/428	151	300	18	3	14%	8%	118	+1.6
✕Luis Landaeta 2006 · AAA	29	54	47→45	45→50	49	265/314/398	133	283	15	15	13%	6%	102	+1.8	249/294/373	124	281	12	13	15%	5%	86	+0.8	266/299/376	111	296	4	9	12%	4%	84	+0.1
✕Hyun Soo Kim 2017 · MLB	29	57	44→45	39→30	57	276/355/399	123	314	11	5	15%	10%	118	+3.0	246/322/351	105	295	9	5	19%	9%	92	+1.2	225/303/284	59	282	2	0	19%	9%	63	-0.3
●Luis Mauricio Suarez 2009 · AAA	30	53→63	45→55	39→45	47	260/310/384	123	299	13	8	18%	6%	95	+1.4	258/305/361	103	297	9	5	16%	6%	87	+0.8	284/330/380	97	338	8	4	18%	6%	100	+1.2
✕Guillermo Heredia 2020 · MLB	29	48→58	44→45	37→45	49	235/310/354	120	279	11	6	20%	8%	89	+1.0	225/304/367	142	285	14	6	25%	8%	90	+1.0	219/311/353	134	282	9	0	23%	9%	83	+0.3
✕Abraham Valencia 2010 · AAA	30	52→53	48→55	37→45	44	260/313/398	138	289	16	6	17%	4%	102	+1.8	254/308/399	145	281	18	6	16%	4%	100	+1.7	254/309/413	159	286	21	2	19%	4%	101	+1.0
●Yonder Alonso 2016 · MLB	29	55→60	44→55	43→45	56	269/336/390	121	294	11	7	13%	9%	108	+2.3	263/337/425	162	298	18	4	18%	10%	118	+3.0	258/335/434	176	292	22	2	19%	10%	116	+2.5
●Oscar Ramirez 2008 · AAA	29	52→60	42→45	38→45	50	252/326/356	104	296	9	8	18%	7%	95	+1.4	262/339/382	120	319	10	6	20%	8%	108	+2.3	264/342/384	120	323	11	3	20%	8%	108	+1.4
✕Fernando Valenzuela 2012 · AAA	29	59→61	48→50	41→40	48	291/341/435	144	320	16	4	15%	6%	122	+3.3	283/323/417	134	307	13	4	12%	5%	110	+2.4	290/329/416	126	311	12	2	11%	4%	112	+1.7
●James Loney 2013 · MLB	29	54→64	43→50	41→45	52	264/315/379	115	286	11	4	12%	7%	96	+1.5	277/326/390	113	303	11	4	12%	7%	104	+2.0	283/332/389	106	309	10	3	12%	7%	100	+1.6
✕Casey Kotchman 2012 · MLB	29	55→62	45→50	42→40	55	269/339/393	124	289	12	3	12%	8%	110	+2.4	241/301/354	113	256	13	5	11%	7%	85	+0.7	237/290/338	101	252	10	2	11%	6%	73	-0.1
✕Ricardo Nanita 2011 · AAA	30	55→60	46→45	41→50	45	270/306/401	132	299	13	8	15%	5%	98	+1.6	263/300/379	116	294	12	10	15%	5%	90	+1.0	261/299/366	105	291	12	9	15%	4%	83	+0.4
●Jay Payton 2002 · MLB	29	53→61	48→55	38→50	48	266/312/405	138	283	16	7	13%	6%	102	+1.8	284/335/453	169	299	19	7	12%	7%	124	+3.4	286/342/455	169	299	19	5	11%	7%	124	+3.1
●Lourdes Gurriel Jr. 2023 · MLB	29	56→61	48→60	38→45	47	279/329/429	150	321	15	4	18%	6%	115	+2.8	263/312/427	164	294	19	7	17%	6%	108	+2.3	255/304/423	168	278	21	8	17%	5%	102	+1.7
✕Daryle Ward 2003 · MLB	28	52→56	52→60	37→30	49	267/318/440	174	298	20	3	18%	7%	115	+2.7	249/303/403	154	273	17	3	16%	7%	98	+1.6	259/324/444	185	273	22	0	14%	8%	108	+1.2