Josh Naylor1B Seattle Mariners
Age 29 L/L 5'10" / 235 lbs MLB HR +3% Svc 6.738 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 0.4 · 2027
wRC+†vL 8498vR 105
AVG/OBP/SLG.267 / .332 / .442
PA604
HR22
SB13
K%15
BB%8
xwOBA.300
Barrel%5.2%
MLB%100%
BAT: -1.1 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-1BATRUN: -0.8 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)-1RUNFLD: -4.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-4FLDPOS: -10.8 runs (Positional adjustment)-11POSREP: +17.1 runs (Replacement-level credit)+17REPTotal WAR: +0.20+0.2WAR
Scouting · nowfuture
HIT
5555
PWR
4545
SPD
3030
EYE
5140
trajectory · 10 yrs
2.1peak
2026

Contract

ESTIMATED  ·  service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   FA
MLB Debut   2019
Service   6.738 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2030
First FA Year   2031
NTC
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026Ext / FA-deal$18M+0.2$0.8M-$18M
2027Ext / FA-deal$18M+0.4$2M-$17M
2028Ext / FA-deal$18M+0.1$0.4M-$18M
2029Ext / FA-deal$18M
2030Ext / FA-deal$18M
Totals $92M $-1M -$94M
Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$94M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
201518 ROKGCL Marlins 10599 26311 3161 10 .263.291.343.635 .081.298 153 .264 60 -5 +0 +0 -2 +3 -0.3
201619 A2 teams 514492 1062328 141163 114 .215.242.319.561 .104.263 233 .241 43 -33 +1 +0 -9 +15 -2.8
201720 A+3 teams 571531 12624211 331324 112 .237.287.352.639 .115.294 236 .281 73 -17 +1 +0 -10 +16 -1.0
201821 AASan Antonio Missions 574527 13418119 38907 55 .254.313.400.713 .146.274 167 .314 98 -1 -1 +0 -10 +16 0.4
201922 MLB3 teams 614561 14136119 501211 72 .251.314.421.734 .169.288 208 .319 103 +2 +1 -7 -7 +17 0.7
202023 MLBCleveland Indians 10498 24311 5121 10 .245.288.327.615 .082.271 125 .271 65 -4 +0 +0 -1 +3 -0.2
202124 MLBCleveland Indians 250234 601407 14452 10 .256.304.406.710 .150.291 186 .304 91 -3 +0 -1 -3 +7 0.1
202225 MLB2 teams 523470 12029023 42806 61 .255.324.464.788 .209.261 158 .333 113 +8 +1 -2 -9 +15 1.2
202326 MLBCleveland Guardians 495452 14130017 33683 103 .312.363.491.854 .179.332 147 .355 130 +17 +1 +0 -9 +14 2.4
202427 MLBCleveland Guardians 633564 13426029 581057 62 .238.316.438.754 .200.242 179 .322 104 +3 +0 -5 -11 +18 0.5
202528 MLBSeattle Mariners 604547 16229119 48834 302 .296.357.457.814 .161.318 148 .351 127 +18 +5 -4 -11 +17 2.6
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
202629 MLBSeattle Mariners 10493 18202 9171 10 .194.272.280.551 .086.213 169 .245 45 -6 +0 -1 -2 +3 -0.6
ROS29 MLBSEA 500451 11621117 41764 124 .257.325.421.746 .164.272 158 .328 109 +5 +1 -3 -9 +14 0.8
TOT29 MLBSEA 604544 13423119 50935 134 .246.316.397.713 .151.264 158 .314 98 -1 +1 -4 -11 +17 0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
202730 MLBSEA 592533 13625120 49735 135 .255.324.418.742 .163.258 128 .325 107 +5 +1 -6 -11 +17 0.6
202831 MLBSEA 577520 13124119 47735 104 .252.320.412.731 .160.257 138 .321 104 +3 +0 -6 -10 +16 0.3
202932 MLBSEA 558503 12322017 46744 73 .245.313.390.703 .145.256 138 .316 100 +0 +0 -7 -10 +16 -0.1
203033 MLBSEA 528476 11521016 43734 52 .242.310.387.696 .145.254 148 .311 96 -2 +0 -7 -9 +15 -0.4
203134 MLBSEA 480435 10318014 39713 31 .237.304.375.679 .138.252 158 .304 91 -5 +0 -8 -9 +14 -0.8
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career 82227493 189836612257 603130864 13940 .253.314.408.723 .155.275 167 .315 99 -10 +12 -55 -140 +233 4.0
/ 162G 650592 15029120 481035 113 .253.315.407.722 .154.275 167 .315 99 -1 +1 -4 -11 +18 0.3

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

YearAge LvlTeam PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
201518 ROKGCL Marlins 10598 32411 4111 10 .327.359.418.778 .092.352 104 .342 120 +2 +0 +3 0.6
201619 A+Lake Elsinore Storm 144139 35503 3220 11 .252.268.353.620 .101.276 152 .272 66 -5 -0 +4 -0.2
201619 AGreensboro Grasshoppers 370342 922429 22623 103 .269.319.430.749 .161.304 176 .329 110 +4 +1 +10 1.6
201720 AASan Antonio Missions 175156 39902 16361 21 .250.324.346.670 .096.308 219 .303 90 -2 +0 +5 0.3
201720 A+Lake Elsinore Storm 313283 841628 27482 71 .297.362.452.814 .155.333 159 .362 135 +12 +1 +9 2.3
201720 INTLPeoria Javelinas 8379 24603 3141 20 .304.337.494.831 .190.339 174 .366 138 +4 +0 +2 0.6
201821 AASan Antonio Missions 574501 14922117 64697 55 .297.385.447.832 .150.317 1211 .372 143 +28 -1 +16 4.4
201922 MLBSan Diego Padres 279253 631508 25640 11 .249.317.403.720 .154.302 239 .321 104 +1 -0 -7 -7 +8 -0.4
201922 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas 252223 7020110 28300 10 .314.390.547.938 .233.326 1211 .408 171 +20 +0 +7 2.8
201922 INTLLeones del Escogido 8376 19101 5111 51 .250.301.303.604 .053.281 136 .277 70 -3 +1 +2 0.0
202023 MLBCleveland Indians 10497 24311 5121 10 .247.288.330.618 .082.274 125 .279 71 -3 +0 +0 -1 +3 -0.1
202124 MLBCleveland Indians 250233 591307 14452 10 .253.300.399.699 .146.287 186 .311 96 -1 +0 -1 -3 +7 0.3
202225 MLBCleveland Guardians 498449 11528020 38806 61 .256.323.452.775 .196.268 168 .340 118 +10 +1 -2 -9 +14 1.4
202225 AAAColumbus Clippers 2520 4200 500 00 .200.360.300.660 .100.200 020 .315 99 -0 +0 +1 0.1
202326 MLBCleveland Guardians 495452 13931017 33683 103 .308.359.489.848 .181.326 147 .369 141 +23 +1 +0 -9 +14 3.0
202427 MLBCleveland Guardians 633563 13727031 581057 62 .243.321.456.778 .213.246 179 .342 120 +14 +0 -5 -11 +18 1.7
202528 MLBSeattle Mariners 604543 16029120 48834 302 .295.354.462.816 .168.315 148 .358 132 +22 +5 -4 -11 +17 3.0
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career 28632590 6971462104 22145723 559 .269.331.447.779 .178.289 168 .343 120 +66 +7 -18 -51 +81 8.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Scouting At Match Age Next 3 Yrs Peak 3 Yrs
Comp Age HIT PWR SPD EYE AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR
Josh Naylor (OGILVIE) 29 55 45 30 40 .253/.321/.413 .160.260 2015 12% 8% 109 +2.4
Robert Fick
2003 · MLB
29 53→54 52→55 38→40 53 .266/.332/.437 .172.287 192 15% 8% 119 +3.1 .255/.325/.405 .150.273 163 13% 9% 108 +2.3 .249/.326/.380.131.26613112%9%96+0.8
Adam Frazier
2021 · MLB
29 52→62 47→50 39→50 51 .259/.320/.402 .143.283 145 14% 7% 105 +2.1 .267/.328/.377 .110.297 810 13% 7% 102 +1.8 .262/.325/.366.104.29271112%7%93+1.2
Chris Richard
2003 · MLB
29 50→53 53→60 42→50 51 .254/.322/.436 .181.283 1911 18% 8% 115 +2.7 .244/.309/.400 .156.287 168 20% 8% 100 +1.7 .233/.305/.418.185.28722826%7%103+1.4
Luis Valbuena
2015 · MLB
29 47→55 50→60 36→50 58 .234/.325/.398 .163.271 163 20% 12% 106 +2.2 .231/.321/.424 .193.265 243 22% 11% 111 +2.5 .219/.312/.419.201.24727124%11%101+1.3
Raul Lopez
2008 · AAA
29 56→62 47→50 37→40 52 .276/.331/.414 .139.299 154 14% 7% 112 +2.6 .269/.324/.416 .147.296 175 15% 8% 110 +2.4 .279/.338/.432.153.30318314%8%120+1.6
Casey McGehee
2012 · MLB
29 51→61 49→50 35→40 51 .254/.312/.401 .147.281 162 17% 8% 101 +1.8 .243/.306/.360 .117.283 113 18% 8% 88 +0.9 .266/.323/.343.077.3175416%7%85+0.6
Ross Gload
2005 · MLB
29 57→58 50→55 37→40 52 .283/.344/.439 .156.314 175 16% 8% 124 +3.4 .289/.332/.463 .174.316 196 15% 6% 125 +3.5 .296/.331/.467.171.31917613%4%124+1.5
Abraham Valencia
2010 · AAA
30 52→53 47→50 36→45 43 .258/.310/.393 .135.289 155 17% 4% 98 +1.6 .254/.310/.399 .145.281 176 16% 4% 100 +1.7 .254/.310/.408.154.28820219%4%100+1.0
Daryle Ward
2003 · MLB
28 52→56 54→60 38→30 48 .266/.317/.448 .183.295 223 19% 7% 116 +2.8 .250/.304/.403 .153.275 173 16% 7% 98 +1.6 .259/.324/.444.185.27322014%8%108+1.2
Juan Uribe
2008 · MLB
29 45→55 53→60 34→50 45 .234/.279/.404 .170.251 213 18% 5% 89 +0.9 .248/.297/.419 .171.277 203 18% 6% 100 +1.7 .287/.336/.431.144.33916319%6%114+1.9
Jay Payton
2002 · MLB
29 54→61 48→55 38→50 48 .267/.313/.407 .140.283 167 13% 6% 103 +1.9 .284/.334/.452 .168.299 197 12% 6% 124 +3.4 .286/.342/.455.169.29919511%7%124+3.1
José Miguel Fernández
2018 · AA
30 51→54 49→50 41→40 46 .258/.306/.401 .143.273 184 14% 5% 99 +1.7 .261/.306/.409 .148.276 185 13% 5% 101 +1.8 .271/.314/.422.150.28119311%5%104+1.7
Edwards Guzman
2006 · MLB
29 57→64 49→50 41→40 49 .284/.322/.432 .148.285 187 8% 5% 114 +2.7 .293/.339/.422 .129.297 155 7% 6% 118 +3.0 .300/.351/.407.108.3051226%7%117+1.7
Daniel Fornes
2009 · AAA
29 49→56 47→50 42→40 54 .245/.317/.382 .136.265 153 14% 8% 98 +1.6 .249/.310/.382 .133.272 154 14% 7% 96 +1.5 .248/.307/.374.127.26814213%7%93+0.8
Travis Lee
2004 · MLB
29 53→55 50→55 44→45 56 .265/.339/.429 .164.296 176 17% 10% 119 +3.1 .259/.327/.416 .157.291 178 17% 9% 111 +2.5 .250/.322/.397.147.27917917%9%99+1.2
Luis Landaeta
2006 · AAA
29 53 47→45 45→50 48 .263/.312/.396 .133.281 1515 13% 6% 100 +1.7 .251/.296/.375 .124.280 1213 15% 5% 87 +0.8 .266/.299/.376.111.2964912%4%84+0.1
Fernando Valenzuela
2012 · AAA
29 58→62 46→45 41→40 47 .284/.334/.413 .129.317 134 15% 6% 114 +2.7 .282/.322/.406 .124.309 123 13% 5% 106 +2.2 .288/.326/.406.118.31111211%4%108+1.5
Jay Gibbons
2005 · MLB
28 50→54 54→60 38→30 52 .258/.316/.437 .178.269 212 14% 8% 112 +2.6 .265/.316/.453 .188.277 222 14% 7% 117 +2.9 .264/.314/.455.191.27323013%6%112+1.7
Juan Rivera
2006 · MLB
28 55→62 53→60 37→40 52 .279/.329/.454 .175.288 216 12% 7% 122 +3.3 .280/.329/.468 .188.287 243 12% 6% 127 +3.6 .266/.323/.425.159.27720312%7%109+2.0
Gonzalo Meza
2008 · AAA
29 55→56 48→50 44→40 50 .274/.324/.412 .138.301 175 16% 7% 108 +2.3 .266/.313/.366 .100.301 95 14% 6% 92 +1.2 .273/.322/.353.080.3116313%6%91+0.7