Nestor Cortes
P
San Diego Padres
+0.3
WAR
Age 31
LHP
5'10" / 225 lbs
MLB
peak 0.3 · 2026
ERA4.61
FIP4.76
xFIP5.75
SIERA5.42
K%22.2%
BB%7.8%
K-BB%14.4%
IP97
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
STUF4545
CTRL5555
CMD5050
K†5050
FB Velo
p1090.1
Whiff%
p4825.0%
K%
p2518.5%
xwOBA vs
p100.395
SL+2.2 (13%)
CH (14%)
CT-2.0 (34%)
FB-10.9 (38%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 20 | ROK | Pulaski Yankees | 12 | 10 | 64 | 250 | 66 | 10 | 7 | 18.0% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 2.26 | 4.37 | +0.4 |
| 2016 | 21 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 21 | 12 | 106 | 396 | 115 | 24 | 5 | 22.0% | 6.2% | 1.6% | 1.53 | 2.90 | +2.9 |
| 2017 | 22 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 30 | 13 | 105 | 423 | 105 | 32 | 4 | 21.4% | 8.3% | 0.9% | 2.06 | 2.85 | +2.9 |
| 2018 | 23 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 28 | 18 | 120 | 501 | 102 | 41 | 15 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 3.0% | 3.84 | 4.22 | +1.5 |
| 2019 | 24 | MLB | New York Yankees | 40 | 7 | 106 | 455 | 111 | 38 | 19 | 23.3% | 8.5% | 4.1% | 4.99 | 4.46 | +1.0 |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 5 | 1 | 8 | 44 | 8 | 6 | 6 | — | — | — | 15.26 | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | MLB | New York Yankees | 27 | 15 | 108 | 425 | 121 | 26 | 15 | 28.0% | 6.1% | 3.5% | 2.67 | 3.46 | +2.3 |
| 2022 | 27 | MLB | New York Yankees | 28 | 28 | 158 | 615 | 163 | 38 | 16 | 26.5% | 6.2% | 2.5% | 2.44 | 3.01 | +4.1 |
| 2023 | 28 | MLB | New York Yankees | 14 | 14 | 70 | 291 | 76 | 21 | 12 | 25.2% | 7.5% | 3.7% | 4.65 | 3.98 | +0.8 |
| 2024 | 29 | MLB | New York Yankees | 31 | 30 | 174 | 710 | 162 | 39 | 24 | 22.8% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 3.77 | 3.68 | +3.2 |
| 2025 | 30 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 12 | 12 | 52 | 226 | 47 | 23 | 14 | 20.4% | 11.0% | 5.9% | 4.47 | 6.03 | -0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | SD | 15 | 15 | 84 | 353 | 73 | 28 | 14 | 20.6% | 7.8% | 3.9% | 4.61 | 4.89 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | SD | 13 | 13 | 69 | 292 | 64 | 21 | 12 | 21.9% | 7.2% | 4.0% | 4.68 | 4.73 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | SD | 57 | — | 57 | 240 | 51 | 18 | 10 | 21.3% | 7.4% | 4.1% | 4.79 | 4.86 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | SD | 46 | — | 46 | 196 | 40 | 15 | 8 | 20.6% | 7.6% | 4.2% | 4.92 | 5.00 | -0.0 |
| 2030 | 35 | MLB | SD | 38 | — | 38 | 159 | 31 | 12 | 7 | 19.8% | 7.8% | 4.3% | 5.06 | 5.15 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 36 | MLB | SD | 30 | — | 30 | 128 | 24 | 10 | 6 | 19.1% | 8.1% | 4.4% | 5.21 | 5.32 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 248 | 160 | 1071 | 4336 | 991 | 307 | 138 | 22.9% | 7.1% | 3.2% | 3.29 | 3.81 | +18.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 30 | 200 | 810 | 185 | 57 | 26 | 22.9% | 7.1% | 3.2% | 3.29 | 3.81 | +3.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Nestor Cortes (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.89 | 20.6% | 7.8% | 3.9% | — | 4.85 | 21.4% | 14.0% | 172 | -0.04 | — | — | — |
| Travis Blackley L 2027 · 4.89 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.89 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.2% | .324 | 4.45 | 10.5% | 0.0% | 137 | -0.44 | 3.85 | 225 | 61 |
| Jorge Castillo L 2028 · 4.49 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.49 | 16.8% | 9.2% | 3.0% | .292 | 4.82 | 12.4% | 7.2% | 186 | +0.33 | 4.49 | 408 | 59 |
| Tomas Solis L 2027 · 4.17 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.17 | 15.0% | 6.2% | 2.8% | .264 | 5.13 | 12.0% | 3.7% | 159 | +0.96 | 4.17 | 327 | 56 |
| Héctor Santiago L 2026 · 5.07 FIP | 31 | SP- | 5.07 | 20.4% | 11.1% | 4.2% | .307 | 4.34 | 28.4% | 19.1% | 40 | -0.73 | 4.34 | 713 | 56 |
| Anthony Vasquez L 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.66 | 17.1% | 8.9% | 3.4% | .322 | 6.01 | 14.6% | 7.3% | 85 | +1.35 | 4.01 | 642 | 56 |
| Everett Teaford L 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.43 | 13.9% | 7.6% | 2.8% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.43 | 103 | 56 |
| Arturo Lopez L 2027 · 4.79 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.79 | 13.7% | 6.2% | 3.8% | .301 | 4.73 | 10.9% | 4.2% | 217 | -0.06 | 4.33 | 445 | 55 |
| Brandon Mann L 2027 · 4.73 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.73 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 4.1% | .320 | 3.99 | 19.0% | 7.6% | 128 | -0.74 | 3.59 | 190 | 54 |
| Tony Watson L 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.48 | 21.3% | 7.0% | 4.2% | .227 | 3.50 | 21.4% | 16.9% | 187 | -0.98 | 2.22 | 405 | 53 |
| Chris Narveson L 2028 · 4.81 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.81 | 23.6% | 8.0% | 4.9% | .333 | 4.63 | 14.1% | 4.5% | 193 | -0.18 | 4.62 | 249 | 53 |
| Craig Breslow L 2029 · 5.04 FIP | 34 | SW | 5.04 | 16.4% | 6.4% | 4.6% | .279 | 4.48 | 16.2% | 6.5% | 94 | -0.56 | 4.28 | 159 | 53 |
| Jeremy Bleich L 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.69 | 20.3% | 6.6% | 2.7% | .296 | 4.42 | 20.1% | 13.1% | 33 | +0.73 | 3.20 | 241 | 53 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2024 · 4.44 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.44 | 22.4% | 11.4% | 3.3% | .253 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.52 | 126 | 53 |
| Oscar Rivera L 2029 · 3.71 FIP | 34 | SP- | 3.71 | 14.2% | 6.9% | 1.7% | .298 | 4.55 | 10.4% | 3.0% | 129 | +0.84 | 3.71 | 237 | 53 |
| Buddy Boshers L 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.70 | 25.3% | 10.4% | 2.6% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.83 | 223 | 52 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2024 · 4.68 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.68 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 3.8% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.70 | 175 | 52 |
| Travis Wood L 2025 · 5.71 FIP | 30 | SP- | 5.71 | 14.9% | 10.3% | 4.7% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.08 | 256 | 51 |
| Carlos Teller L 2025 · 4.63 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.63 | 12.2% | 9.6% | 2.5% | .322 | 4.86 | 13.1% | -1.1% | 60 | +0.23 | 3.74 | 333 | 51 |
| David Huff L 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.07 | 19.5% | 4.9% | 3.6% | .384 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.48 | 158 | 51 |
| Dan Jennings L 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 16.6% | 8.1% | 2.1% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 244 | 51 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.