Nestor Cortes
P
San Diego Padres
Age 31
LHP
5'10" / 225 lbs
MLB
peak 0.4 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 97 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126135vR 144
ERA4.66
FIP4.93
K%21.2%
BB%7.6%
K-BB%13.6%
ROS IP97
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 97 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1090.1
Whiff%
p4825.0%
K%
p2518.5%
xwOBA vs
p100.395
SL+2.2 (13%)
CH (14%)
CT-2.0 (34%)
FB-10.9 (38%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 20 | ROK | Pulaski Yankees | 12 | 10 | 64 | 250 | 66 | 10 | 7 | 83% | 5.3 | 18.0% | 5.0% | 13.0% | 3.9% | 2.26 | 4.37 | — |
| 2015 | 20 | ROK | Pulaski Yankees | 12 | 10 | 64 | 250 | 66 | 10 | 7 | 83% | 5.3 | 26.4% | 4.0% | 22.4% | 2.8% | 2.26 | 2.93 | — |
| 2016 | 21 | MIX | 4 levels | 21 | 12 | 106 | 396 | 115 | 24 | 5 | 57% | 5.0 | 22.0% | 6.2% | 15.8% | 1.8% | 1.53 | 3.04 | — |
| 2016 | 21 | MIX | 4 levels | 21 | 12 | 106 | 396 | 115 | 24 | 5 | 57% | 5.0 | 29.0% | 6.1% | 23.0% | 1.3% | 1.53 | 2.22 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 30 | 13 | 105 | 423 | 105 | 32 | 4 | 43% | 3.5 | 21.4% | 8.3% | 13.1% | 1.0% | 2.06 | 2.87 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 30 | 13 | 105 | 423 | 105 | 32 | 4 | 43% | 3.5 | 24.8% | 7.6% | 17.3% | 0.9% | 2.06 | 2.51 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 28 | 18 | 120 | 501 | 102 | 41 | 15 | 64% | 4.3 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 2.8% | 3.84 | 4.15 | +1.8 |
| 2018 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 28 | 18 | 120 | 501 | 102 | 41 | 15 | 64% | 4.3 | 20.4% | 8.2% | 12.2% | 3.0% | 3.84 | 4.05 | +1.9 |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 7 | 106 | 455 | 111 | 38 | 19 | 18% | 2.7 | 23.3% | 8.5% | 14.8% | 3.9% | 4.99 | 4.34 | +1.3 |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 7 | 106 | 455 | 111 | 38 | 19 | 18% | 2.7 | 24.4% | 8.4% | 16.0% | 4.2% | 4.99 | 4.41 | +1.2 |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 5 | 1 | 8 | 44 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 20% | 1.5 | 18.2% | 13.6% | 4.5% | 13.6% | 15.26 | 10.78 | -0.6 |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 5 | 1 | 8 | 44 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 20% | 1.5 | 18.2% | 13.6% | 4.5% | 13.6% | 15.26 | 13.53 | -0.8 |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 15 | 108 | 425 | 121 | 26 | 15 | 56% | 4.0 | 28.0% | 6.1% | 21.8% | 3.3% | 2.67 | 3.31 | +2.6 |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 15 | 108 | 425 | 121 | 26 | 15 | 56% | 4.0 | 28.5% | 6.1% | 22.4% | 3.5% | 2.67 | 3.39 | +2.5 |
| 2022 | 27 | MLB | New York Yankees | 28 | 28 | 158 | 615 | 163 | 38 | 16 | 100% | 5.7 | 26.5% | 6.2% | 20.3% | 2.4% | 2.44 | 2.97 | +4.5 |
| 2022 | 27 | MLB | New York Yankees | 28 | 28 | 158 | 615 | 163 | 38 | 16 | 100% | 5.7 | 26.5% | 6.2% | 20.3% | 2.6% | 2.44 | 3.07 | +4.3 |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 14 | 70 | 291 | 76 | 21 | 12 | 100% | 5.0 | 25.2% | 7.5% | 17.7% | 3.8% | 4.65 | 4.04 | +0.6 |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 14 | 70 | 291 | 76 | 21 | 12 | 100% | 5.0 | 26.1% | 7.2% | 18.9% | 4.1% | 4.65 | 4.06 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 29 | MLB | New York Yankees | 31 | 30 | 174 | 710 | 162 | 39 | 24 | 97% | 5.6 | 22.8% | 5.5% | 17.3% | 3.1% | 3.77 | 3.59 | +3.7 |
| 2024 | 29 | MLB | New York Yankees | 31 | 30 | 174 | 710 | 162 | 39 | 24 | 97% | 5.6 | 22.8% | 5.5% | 17.3% | 3.4% | 3.77 | 3.70 | +3.5 |
| 2025 | 30 | MIX | 3 levels | 12 | 12 | 52 | 226 | 47 | 23 | 14 | 100% | 4.4 | 20.4% | 11.0% | 9.4% | 7.1% | 4.47 | 6.64 | -1.3 |
| 2025 | 30 | MIX | 3 levels | 12 | 12 | 52 | 226 | 47 | 23 | 14 | 100% | 4.4 | 20.8% | 10.2% | 10.6% | 6.2% | 4.47 | 6.10 | -0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | SD | 13 | 13 | 84 | 353 | 75 | 27 | 15 | 100% | 6.4 | 21.2% | 7.6% | 13.6% | 4.1% | 4.66 | 4.93 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | SD | 12 | 12 | 77 | 327 | 73 | 24 | 14 | 100% | 6.5 | 22.4% | 7.2% | 15.2% | 4.4% | 4.81 | 4.91 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | SD | 11 | 11 | 71 | 300 | 65 | 23 | 14 | 100% | 6.5 | 21.6% | 7.7% | 13.9% | 4.7% | 5.04 | 5.19 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | SD | 10 | 10 | 65 | 273 | 56 | 22 | 14 | 100% | 6.5 | 20.6% | 8.2% | 12.5% | 5.0% | 5.31 | 5.49 | -0.6 |
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | SD | 12 | 12 | 77 | 325 | 73 | 23 | 14 | 100% | 6.4 | 22.4% | 7.2% | 15.2% | 4.4% | 4.81 | 4.91 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | SD | 11 | 11 | 71 | 300 | 65 | 23 | 14 | 100% | 6.5 | 21.6% | 7.7% | 13.9% | 4.7% | 5.04 | 5.19 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | SD | 10 | 10 | 65 | 274 | 57 | 22 | 14 | 100% | 6.5 | 20.6% | 8.2% | 12.5% | 5.0% | 5.31 | 5.49 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 175 | 126 | 815 | 3389 | 798 | 248 | 144 | 72% | 4.7 | 23.5% | 7.3% | 16.2% | 4.2% | 4.23 | 4.37 | +9.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 43 | 31 | 200 | 831 | 196 | 61 | 35 | 72% | 4.6 | 23.5% | 7.3% | 16.2% | 4.2% | 4.23 | 4.37 | +2.4 | ||
| Career | — | 248 | 160 | 1071 | 4336 | 991 | 307 | 137 | 65% | 4.3 | 22.9% | 7.1% | 15.8% | 3.2% | 3.29 | 3.81 | +20.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 30 | 200 | 810 | 185 | 57 | 26 | 65% | 4.3 | 22.9% | 7.1% | 15.8% | 3.2% | 3.29 | 3.81 | +3.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Nestor Cortes (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.93 | 21.2% | 7.6% | 4.1% | — | 5.18 | 21.6% | 13.9% | 213 | +0.25 | — | — | — |
| Travis Blackley L 2027 · 4.97 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.97 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.3% | .324 | 4.50 | 10.5% | 0.0% | 137 | -0.47 | 3.84 | 225 | 59 |
| Franklin Morales L 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.06 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 2.2% | .267 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.36 | 101 | 56 |
| Brandon Mann L 2027 · 4.73 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.73 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 4.1% | .320 | 4.14 | 19.0% | 7.6% | 128 | -0.59 | 3.60 | 190 | 54 |
| Everett Teaford L 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.36 | 13.9% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.36 | 103 | 54 |
| Anthony Vasquez L 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.56 | 17.1% | 8.9% | 3.2% | .322 | 6.02 | 14.6% | 7.3% | 85 | +1.46 | 4.01 | 642 | 53 |
| Luke Westphal L 2027 · 4.48 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.48 | 22.7% | 13.1% | 3.0% | .321 | 4.52 | 22.0% | 7.0% | 95 | +0.04 | 2.97 | 294 | 52 |
| Héctor Santiago L 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.80 | 20.4% | 11.1% | 3.7% | .307 | 4.40 | 28.4% | 19.1% | 40 | -0.40 | 4.40 | 713 | 52 |
| Sean Nolin L 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.59 | 20.4% | 8.9% | 3.8% | .316 | 5.87 | 19.8% | 12.3% | 23 | +1.28 | 3.62 | 309 | 52 |
| Danny Duffy L 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.69 | 23.6% | 9.1% | 4.4% | .281 | 3.35 | 24.8% | 13.7% | 92 | -1.34 | 3.29 | 915 | 52 |
| Santiago Gutierrez L 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.87 | 15.0% | 8.2% | 1.8% | .366 | 6.95 | 17.1% | 3.7% | 46 | +3.08 | 3.87 | 341 | 51 |
| Jeff Locke L 2024 · 4.18 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.18 | 17.1% | 7.9% | 2.8% | .345 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.71 | 328 | 50 |
| Robbie Erlin L 2026 · 5.32 FIP | 31 | SP- | 5.32 | 16.8% | 10.2% | 4.3% | .332 | 6.03 | 15.8% | 6.8% | 79 | +0.71 | 3.37 | 520 | 49 |
| Jorge Castillo L 2028 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.40 | 16.8% | 9.2% | 2.8% | .292 | 4.68 | 12.4% | 7.2% | 186 | +0.28 | 4.40 | 408 | 49 |
| Francisley Bueno L 2029 · 3.79 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.79 | 14.8% | 7.1% | 1.9% | .315 | 4.03 | 13.3% | 6.6% | 110 | +0.24 | 3.39 | 138 | 48 |
| Jason Vargas L 2027 · 4.29 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.29 | 14.8% | 6.6% | 2.9% | .295 | 4.63 | 19.2% | 12.1% | 285 | +0.34 | 3.87 | 478 | 48 |
| Tyler Alexander L 2024 · 5.37 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.37 | 15.7% | 10.7% | 4.1% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.27 | 128 | 48 |
| Tomas Solis L 2027 · 4.35 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.35 | 15.0% | 6.2% | 3.1% | .264 | 5.50 | 12.0% | 3.7% | 159 | +1.15 | 4.35 | 327 | 47 |
| Marlon Arias L 2025 · 4.14 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.14 | 16.8% | 12.2% | 1.7% | .330 | 3.89 | 17.2% | 9.5% | 22 | -0.25 | 3.89 | 154 | 47 |
| Eric Surkamp L 2024 · 5.15 FIP | 29 | SP | 5.15 | 16.4% | 9.3% | 4.1% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.29 | 182 | 47 |
| Arturo Lopez L 2027 · 4.71 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.71 | 13.7% | 6.2% | 3.6% | .301 | 4.61 | 10.9% | 4.2% | 217 | -0.10 | 4.24 | 445 | 46 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 74 | 21.5% | 7.6% | 1.74 | 4.93 |
| Adam Morgan ('21) | 6 | 59 | 20.5% | 7.1% | 1.56 | 4.77 |
| Alex Young ('23) | 5 | 52 | 19.5% | 8.6% | 1.61 | 4.43 |
| Austin Voth ('24) | 6 | 58 | 22.2% | 8.2% | 1.50 | 4.63 |
| Mike Mayers ('23) | 5 | 47 | 24.3% | 7.8% | 1.50 | 4.47 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Sam Gaviglio ('19) | 3 | 98 | 19.3% | 6.9% | 1.69 | 4.84 |