Nestor Cortes — OGILVIE

Nestor Cortes P Lehigh Valley IronPigs

Age 31 LHP 5'10" / 225 lbs AAA peak 0.5 · 2026 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION1 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122130vR 138

ERA4.62

FIP4.85

K%21.1%

BB%7.6%

K-BB%13.6%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 7 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL6565

CMD6060

K†5055

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1090.1

Whiff%

p4825.0%

p2518.5%

xwOBA vs

p100.395

SL+2.2 (13%)

CH (14%)

CT-2.0 (34%)

FB-10.9 (38%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	20	ROK MLE	Pulaski Yankees	12	10	64	250	66	10	7	83%	5.3	18.0%	5.0%	13.0%	3.9%	2.26	4.37	—
2015	20	ROK RAW	Pulaski Yankees	12	10	64	250	66	10	7	83%	5.3	26.4%	4.0%	22.4%	2.8%	2.26	2.93	—
2016	21	MIX MLE	4 levels	21	12	106	396	115	24	5	57%	5.0	22.0%	6.2%	15.8%	1.6%	1.53	2.91	—
2016	21	MIX RAW	4 levels	21	12	106	396	115	24	5	57%	5.0	29.0%	6.1%	23.0%	1.3%	1.53	2.22	—
2017	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	13	105	423	105	32	4	43%	3.5	21.4%	8.3%	13.1%	0.9%	2.06	2.85	—
2017	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	30	13	105	423	105	32	4	43%	3.5	24.8%	7.6%	17.3%	0.9%	2.06	2.51	—
2018	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	18	120	501	102	41	15	64%	4.3	18.3%	8.2%	10.1%	3.0%	3.84	4.22	+1.0
2018	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	18	120	501	102	41	15	64%	4.3	20.4%	8.2%	12.2%	3.0%	3.84	4.05	+1.2
2019	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	7	106	455	111	38	19	18%	2.7	23.3%	8.5%	14.8%	4.0%	4.99	4.38	+0.2
2019	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	7	106	455	111	38	19	18%	2.7	24.4%	8.4%	16.0%	4.2%	4.99	4.41	+0.2
2020	25	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	5	1	8	44	8	6	6	20%	1.5	18.2%	13.6%	4.5%	13.6%	15.26	10.78	-0.5
2020	25	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	5	1	8	44	8	6	6	20%	1.5	18.2%	13.6%	4.5%	13.6%	15.26	13.53	-0.8
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	15	108	425	121	26	15	56%	4.0	28.0%	6.1%	21.8%	3.3%	2.67	3.33	+2.1
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	15	108	425	121	26	15	56%	4.0	28.5%	6.1%	22.4%	3.5%	2.67	3.39	+2.0
2022	27	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	28	28	158	615	163	38	16	100%	5.7	26.5%	6.2%	20.3%	2.4%	2.44	2.98	+3.8
2022	27	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	28	28	158	615	163	38	16	100%	5.7	26.5%	6.2%	20.3%	2.6%	2.44	3.07	+3.6
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	14	70	291	76	21	12	100%	5.0	25.2%	7.5%	17.7%	3.9%	4.65	4.05	+0.7
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	14	70	291	76	21	12	100%	5.0	25.2%	7.5%	17.7%	3.9%	4.65	4.05	+0.7
2023	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	14	70	291	76	21	12	100%	5.0	26.1%	7.2%	18.9%	4.1%	4.65	4.06	+0.7
2024	29	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	31	30	174	710	162	39	24	97%	5.6	22.8%	5.5%	17.3%	3.2%	3.77	3.61	+2.7
2024	29	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	31	30	174	710	162	39	24	97%	5.6	22.8%	5.5%	17.3%	3.2%	3.77	3.61	+2.7
2024	29	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	31	30	174	710	162	39	24	97%	5.6	22.8%	5.5%	17.3%	3.4%	3.77	3.70	+2.5
2025	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	12	12	52	226	47	23	14	100%	4.4	20.0%	10.8%	9.3%	6.5%	4.47	6.33	-0.8
2025	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	12	12	52	226	47	23	14	100%	4.4	20.0%	10.8%	9.3%	6.5%	4.47	6.33	-0.8
2025	30	MIX RAW	3 levels	12	12	52	226	47	23	14	100%	4.4	20.8%	10.2%	10.6%	6.2%	4.47	6.10	-0.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			143	94	602	2490	604	179	102	66%	4.2	24.3%	7.2%	17.1%	4.1%	3.94	4.19	+5.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	31	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	—	—	—	—	9.00	—	—
YTD	31	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	—	—	—	—	9.00	—	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	31	AAA RAW	PHI	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	25.0%	0.0%	25.0%	0.0%	9.00	0.99	—
ROS	31	MLB MLE	PHI	6	0	6	25	5	2	1	0%	1.0	21.1%	7.6%	13.6%	4.0%	4.62	4.85	-0.0
2026 TOT	31	MLB MLE	PHI	—	—	7	29	6	2	1	—	—	21.7%	6.5%	15.1%	3.4%	5.26	4.14	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	PHI	12	12	77	327	73	23	14	100%	6.5	22.3%	7.2%	15.2%	4.3%	4.75	4.84	+0.1
2028	33	MLB MLE	PHI	11	11	71	300	64	23	14	100%	6.5	21.5%	7.6%	13.9%	4.5%	4.97	5.12	-0.2
2027	32	MLB CTX	PHI	12	12	77	325	73	23	14	100%	6.4	22.3%	7.2%	15.2%	4.3%	4.75	4.84	+0.1
2028	33	MLB CTX	PHI	11	11	71	300	64	23	14	100%	6.5	21.5%	7.6%	13.9%	4.5%	4.97	5.12	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		166	117	751	3119	742	225	130	70%	4.5	23.8%	7.2%	16.6%	4.2%	4.13	4.29	+5.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		44	31	200	830	198	60	35	70%	4.5	23.8%	7.2%	16.6%	4.2%	4.13	4.29	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		249	160	1072	4340	992	307	136	64%	4.3	22.8%	7.1%	15.8%	3.1%	3.29	3.79	+4.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	30	200	810	185	57	25	64%	4.3	22.8%	7.1%	15.8%	3.1%	3.29	3.79	+1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nestor Cortes (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.85	21.1%	7.6%	4.0%	—	4.97	21.9%	14.5%	148	+0.12	—	—	—
Héctor Santiago L 2019 · 5.02 FIP	31	SW	5.02	20.4%	11.1%	4.1%	.307	4.32	28.4%	19.1%	40	-0.70	4.32	713	61
Franklin Morales L 2017 · 4.02 FIP	31	SP-	4.02	15.0%	8.0%	2.2%	.267	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	101	61
Travis Blackley L 2015 · 4.91 FIP	32	SP-	4.91	15.4%	6.4%	4.2%	.324	4.45	10.5%	0.0%	137	-0.46	3.85	225	59
Jeff Locke L 2017 · 4.18 FIP	29	SP	4.18	17.1%	7.9%	2.8%	.345	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	328	59
Danny Duffy L 2020 · 4.71 FIP	31	SP	4.71	23.6%	9.1%	4.5%	.281	3.36	24.8%	13.7%	92	-1.35	3.29	915	57
Kwang Hyun Kim L 2020 · 3.76 FIP	32	SP	3.76	15.6%	6.5%	2.1%	.214	4.21	17.7%	9.5%	107	+0.45	3.76	146	57
Everett Teaford L 2015 · 4.42 FIP	31	SP-	4.42	13.9%	7.6%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	103	54
Robbie Erlin L 2022 · 5.31 FIP	31	SP-	5.31	16.8%	10.2%	4.3%	.332	5.96	14.9%	7.2%	79	+0.65	3.22	520	54
Anthony Vasquez L 2018 · 4.64 FIP	31	SW	4.64	17.1%	8.9%	3.4%	.322	6.00	14.6%	7.3%	85	+1.36	4.02	642	54
Brandon Mann L 2016 · 4.72 FIP	32	SP	4.72	19.4%	7.9%	4.1%	.320	3.97	19.0%	7.6%	128	-0.75	3.59	190	53
Luke Westphal L 2021 · 4.70 FIP	32	SP-	4.70	22.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.321	4.59	21.7%	7.5%	95	-0.11	2.97	294	53
Santiago Gutierrez L 2017 · 3.95 FIP	31	SP-	3.95	15.0%	8.2%	2.0%	.366	6.54	17.1%	3.7%	46	+2.59	3.90	341	53
Sean Nolin L 2021 · 4.54 FIP	31	SP-	4.54	20.4%	8.9%	3.7%	.316	5.93	18.6%	12.2%	23	+1.39	3.79	309	52
James Paxton L 2020 · 3.93 FIP	31	SP	3.93	28.9%	7.8%	4.2%	.358	4.47	24.0%	14.7%	118	+0.54	2.46	924	50
John Danks L 2016 · 5.84 FIP	31	SP	5.84	16.0%	11.0%	4.9%	.338	—	—	—	—	—	4.33	200	50
Yusei Kikuchi L 2022 · 5.19 FIP	31	SP-	5.19	27.3%	12.8%	5.1%	.281	3.78	25.4%	18.1%	522	-1.41	3.23	1,041	49
Jorge Castillo L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	33	SP	4.50	16.8%	9.2%	3.0%	.292	4.95	12.4%	7.2%	186	+0.45	4.50	408	49
Francisley Bueno L 2015 · 3.77 FIP	34	SP	3.77	14.8%	7.1%	1.9%	.315	3.99	13.3%	6.6%	110	+0.22	3.48	138	48
Marlon Arias L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	30	SP	4.32	16.8%	12.2%	2.0%	.330	3.73	17.2%	9.5%	22	-0.59	3.73	154	48
Jason Vargas L 2015 · 4.31 FIP	32	SP	4.31	14.8%	6.6%	2.9%	.295	4.65	19.2%	12.1%	285	+0.34	4.02	478	48

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	75	21.6%	7.4%	1.65	4.77
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63
Eli Morgan ('24)	1.3	66	23.8%	6.4%	1.46	3.97
Félix Peña ('20)	1.2	62	23.6%	8.3%	1.37	4.46