Byron Buxton

CF Minnesota Twins

Age 33 R/R 6'1" / 190 lbs MLB Svc 10.930 · Ctrl thru 2028

Overview

MLB40-MANExtFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR
2024	30	MLBMIN	388	.279/.337/.524	18	7	138	3.1
2025	31	MLBMIN	542	.264/.330/.551	35	24	137	4.4
2026	32	MLBMIN	408	.254/.320/.511	25	7	128	2.7
2027PROJ	33	MLBMIN	323	.266/.327/.525	19	22	135	2.7
2028PROJ	34	MLBMIN	266	.256/.316/.503	15	12	126	1.3
2029PROJ	35	MLBMIN	211	.245/.303/.477	11	6	115	0.5

Last 3 seasons WAR 10.2 · Next 3 projected WAR 4.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2028Service10.930First FA2028NTC

2027Ext$14M2028Ext$14M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Barrel%90

Speed90

Avg EV86

xwOBA85

Bat Spd67

CompsStarling Marte (age 33) · Eric Byrnes (age 32) · Luis Terrero (age 33)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 138135vR 127

AVG/OBP/SLG.266 / .327 / .525

PA323

HR19

SB22

K%25

BB%7

BABIP302

ISO256

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$3M ctrl surplus

Tools · Splits · Contract

ToolsStatcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT

xAVG

510.252

POWER

Barrel%

9015.8

Avg EV

8691.6

Bat Spd

6773.2

SPEED

Sprint

9029.7

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1045 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

273

772

—

wRC+

140

131

◀L

wOBA

375

362

◀L

ISO

247

268

▶R

BABIP

331

306

◀L

23.1%

28.1%

◀◀L

BB%

7.3%

5.4%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2015

Service 10.930 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2028

NTC

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext	$14M	+2.7	$23M	+$8M
2028	Ext	$14M	+1.3	$10M	-$3M
Totals		$29M		$32M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2012	18	ROK	Elizabethton Twins	—	189	165	41	10	4	5	19	41	5	11	3	248	344	448	792	200	303	22	10	352	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	19	A+	Fort Myers Miracle	—	253	218	71	4	8	4	32	49	2	23	8	326	417	472	889	147	404	19	13	395	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	19	A	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	321	270	92	15	10	8	44	56	1	32	11	341	435	559	994	219	402	17	14	426	131	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	19	INTL	Glendale Desert Dogs	—	59	52	11	1	0	3	5	15	1	2	1	212	293	404	697	192	229	25	8	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	20	A+	Fort Myers Miracle	—	134	121	29	4	2	4	10	33	3	6	2	240	313	405	718	165	298	25	7	321	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	20	INTL	Salt River Rafters	—	61	57	15	2	0	0	4	12	0	5	1	263	311	298	610	35	333	20	7	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	138	129	27	7	1	2	6	44	1	2	2	209	250	326	576	116	301	32	4	254	58	-7	-0	+4	+2	+3	0.1
2015	21	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	—	59	55	22	3	1	1	4	12	0	2	1	400	441	545	986	145	500	20	7	436	154	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	268	237	67	7	12	6	26	51	1	20	2	283	356	489	846	207	332	19	10	365	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	331	298	67	19	6	10	23	118	3	10	2	225	287	430	717	205	329	36	7	308	95	-2	+1	+7	+2	+7	1.6
2016	22	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	—	209	190	58	11	3	11	14	58	3	7	0	305	362	568	931	263	382	28	7	400	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	511	462	117	14	6	16	38	150	4	29	1	253	315	413	729	160	339	29	7	320	101	+1	+5	+22	+2	+11	4.2
2018	24	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	94	90	14	4	0	0	3	28	0	5	0	156	183	200	383	44	226	30	3	173	3	-11	+1	+1	+1	+2	-0.6
2018	24	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	—	148	136	37	11	1	4	9	42	3	4	1	272	331	456	787	184	367	28	6	348	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	295	271	71	30	4	10	19	68	2	14	3	262	315	513	828	251	314	23	6	356	125	+9	+2	+11	+1	+6	3.0
2020	26	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	135	130	33	3	0	13	2	36	1	2	1	254	271	577	848	323	241	27	1	359	128	+5	+0	+4	+0	+3	1.2
2021	27	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	254	235	72	23	0	19	13	62	6	9	1	306	358	647	1.005	340	344	24	5	432	178	+24	+1	+6	+1	+6	3.9
2021	27	AAA	St. Paul Saints	—	26	22	9	2	1	3	2	3	0	0	0	409	458	1.000	1.458	591	333	12	8	559	215	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	382	340	76	13	3	28	34	116	7	6	0	224	307	526	834	303	244	30	9	360	129	+13	+1	+6	+1	+8	3.1
2023	29	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	347	304	63	17	1	17	35	109	4	9	0	207	297	438	735	230	253	31	10	321	101	+0	+2	+0	+1	+8	1.1
2024	30	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	388	355	99	27	3	18	20	99	11	7	2	279	337	524	861	245	338	26	5	374	138	+17	+1	+3	+1	+8	3.1
2025	31	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	542	488	129	21	7	35	41	148	7	24	0	264	330	551	881	287	302	27	8	377	137	+24	+5	+1	+2	+12	4.4
2026	32	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	408	370	94	18	1	25	30	100	6	7	1	254	320	511	831	257	279	25	7	361	128	+13	+1	+2	+1	+9	2.7
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	3825	3472	862	196	32	193	264	1078	52	124	13	248	311	490	801	242	301	28	7	347	121	+95	+20	+67	+16	+83	28.6
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2012	18	ROK MLE	Elizabethton Twins	—	189	172	31	7	3	4	12	58	5	11	3	180	254	326	580	145	235	31	6	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	19	A+ MLE	Fort Myers Miracle	—	253	227	59	3	7	3	23	71	2	23	8	260	333	374	708	115	361	28	9	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	19	A MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	321	285	88	13	9	6	29	80	1	32	11	309	375	481	855	172	391	25	9	362	131	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	20	A+ MLE	Fort Myers Miracle	—	134	123	22	3	1	3	8	47	3	6	2	179	246	293	539	114	262	35	6	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	138	129	27	7	1	2	6	44	1	2	2	209	250	326	576	116	301	32	4	254	58	-7	-0	+4	+2	+3	0.1
2015	21	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	—	59	56	22	3	1	1	3	14	0	2	1	393	424	536	959	143	492	24	5	396	154	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	268	246	59	6	10	4	17	63	1	20	2	240	292	394	686	154	299	24	6	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	331	298	67	19	6	10	23	118	3	10	2	225	287	430	717	205	329	36	7	308	95	-2	+1	+7	+2	+7	1.6
2016	22	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	—	209	194	51	7	3	10	10	69	3	7	0	263	309	485	794	222	344	33	5	336	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	511	464	117	14	6	16	36	150	4	29	1	252	312	412	723	159	339	29	7	317	101	+1	+5	+22	+2	+11	4.2
2018	24	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	94	90	14	4	0	0	3	28	0	5	0	156	183	200	383	44	226	30	3	173	3	-11	+1	+1	+1	+2	-0.6
2018	24	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	—	148	139	30	8	1	4	6	52	3	4	1	216	264	374	638	158	316	35	4	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	295	272	71	30	4	10	18	68	2	14	3	261	312	511	823	250	314	23	6	353	125	+9	+2	+11	+1	+6	3.0
2020	26	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	135	130	33	3	0	13	2	36	1	2	1	254	271	577	848	323	241	27	1	358	128	+5	+0	+4	+0	+3	1.2
2021	27	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	254	235	72	23	0	19	13	62	6	9	1	306	358	647	1.005	340	344	24	5	431	178	+24	+1	+6	+1	+6	3.9
2021	27	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	—	26	23	8	2	1	2	1	4	0	0	0	348	375	783	1.158	435	282	15	4	486	215	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	382	340	76	13	3	28	34	116	7	6	0	224	307	526	834	303	244	30	9	360	129	+13	+1	+6	+1	+8	3.1
2023	29	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	347	306	63	17	1	17	33	109	4	9	0	206	292	435	726	229	253	31	10	317	101	+0	+2	+0	+1	+8	1.1
2024	30	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	388	356	99	27	3	18	19	99	11	7	2	278	334	522	857	244	338	26	5	372	138	+17	+1	+3	+1	+8	3.1
2025	31	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	542	493	129	21	7	35	36	148	7	24	0	262	321	546	867	284	302	27	7	370	137	+24	+5	+1	+2	+12	4.4
2026	32	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	408	372	94	18	1	25	28	100	6	7	1	253	315	508	823	255	279	25	7	357	128	+13	+1	+2	+1	+9	2.7
2012	18	ROK MLE	Elizabethton Twins	—	189	172	31	7	3	4	12	58	5	11	3	180	254	326	580	145	245	31	6	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	18	ROK RAW	Elizabethton Twins	—	189	165	41	10	4	5	19	41	5	11	3	248	344	448	792	200	303	22	10	352	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	19	A MLE	3 teams	—	633	564	161	18	17	10	57	167	4	57	20	285	355	431	786	145	385	26	9	342	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	19	A RAW	3 teams	—	633	540	174	20	18	15	81	120	4	57	20	322	414	509	924	187	388	19	13	403	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	20	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	195	181	33	5	2	5	11	68	3	11	3	182	241	315	556	133	259	35	6	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	20	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	195	178	44	6	2	4	14	45	3	11	3	247	313	371	684	124	310	23	7	309	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	AA MLE	3 teams	—	465	431	108	16	12	7	26	121	2	24	5	251	296	392	688	142	329	26	6	299	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	AA RAW	3 teams	—	465	421	116	17	14	9	36	107	2	24	5	276	336	447	782	171	346	23	8	341	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	540	492	118	26	9	20	33	187	6	17	2	240	296	451	747	211	338	35	6	319	102	+1	+3	+7	+2	+12	2.5
2016	22	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	540	488	125	30	9	21	37	176	6	17	2	256	316	484	800	227	351	33	7	344	102	+1	+3	+7	+2	+12	2.5
2017	23	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	511	464	117	14	6	16	36	150	4	29	1	252	312	412	723	159	337	29	7	317	101	+1	+5	+22	+2	+11	4.2
2017	23	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	—	511	462	117	14	6	16	38	150	4	29	1	253	315	413	729	160	339	29	7	320	101	+1	+5	+22	+2	+11	4.2
2018	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	242	229	44	12	1	4	9	80	3	9	1	192	232	306	538	114	276	33	4	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	242	226	51	15	1	4	12	70	3	9	1	226	274	354	628	128	309	29	5	280	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	295	272	71	30	4	10	18	68	2	14	3	261	312	511	823	250	313	23	6	353	125	+9	+2	+11	+1	+6	3.0
2019	25	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	—	295	271	71	30	4	10	19	68	2	14	3	262	315	513	828	251	314	23	6	356	125	+9	+2	+11	+1	+6	3.0
2020	26	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	135	130	33	3	0	13	2	36	1	2	1	254	271	577	848	323	241	27	1	358	128	+5	+0	+4	+0	+3	1.2
2020	26	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	—	135	130	33	3	0	13	2	36	1	2	1	254	271	577	848	323	241	27	1	359	128	+5	+0	+4	+0	+3	1.2
2021	27	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	280	258	80	25	1	21	14	66	6	9	1	310	360	659	1.019	349	341	24	5	436	181	+27	+1	+6	+1	+6	4.3
2021	27	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	280	257	81	25	1	22	15	65	6	9	1	315	367	677	1.044	362	343	23	5	444	181	+27	+1	+6	+1	+6	4.3
2022	28	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	382	340	76	13	3	28	34	116	7	6	0	224	307	526	834	303	244	30	9	360	129	+13	+1	+6	+1	+8	3.1
2022	28	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	—	382	340	76	13	3	28	34	116	7	6	0	224	307	526	834	303	244	30	9	360	129	+13	+1	+6	+1	+8	3.1
2023	29	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	347	306	63	17	1	17	33	109	4	9	0	206	292	435	726	229	250	31	10	317	101	+0	+2	+0	+1	+8	1.1
2023	29	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	—	347	304	63	17	1	17	35	109	4	9	0	207	297	438	735	230	253	31	10	321	101	+0	+2	+0	+1	+8	1.1
2024	30	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	388	356	99	27	3	18	19	99	11	7	2	278	334	522	857	244	336	26	5	372	138	+17	+1	+3	+1	+8	3.1
2024	30	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	—	388	355	99	27	3	18	20	99	11	7	2	279	337	524	861	245	338	26	5	374	138	+17	+1	+3	+1	+8	3.1
2025	31	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	542	493	129	21	7	35	36	148	7	24	0	262	321	546	867	284	297	27	7	370	137	+24	+5	+1	+2	+12	4.4
2025	31	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	—	542	488	129	21	7	35	41	148	7	24	0	264	330	551	881	287	302	27	8	377	137	+24	+5	+1	+2	+12	4.4
2026	32	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	408	372	94	18	1	25	28	100	6	7	1	253	315	508	823	255	277	25	7	357	128	+13	+1	+2	+1	+9	2.7
2026	32	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	—	408	370	94	18	1	25	30	100	6	7	1	254	320	511	831	257	279	25	7	361	128	+13	+1	+2	+1	+9	2.7
2012	18	ROK MLE	Elizabethton Twins	—	189	170	31	7	3	4	12	58	5	11	3	182	254	329	583	147	235	31	6	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	19	A MLE	3 teams	—	633	567	161	18	17	10	57	167	4	57	20	284	355	429	784	145	378	26	9	342	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	20	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	195	179	33	5	2	5	11	68	3	11	3	184	241	318	559	134	262	35	6	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	AA MLE	3 teams	—	465	434	108	16	12	7	26	121	2	24	5	249	296	389	686	141	324	26	6	299	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	540	496	118	26	9	20	33	187	6	17	2	238	296	448	743	210	335	35	6	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	511	466	117	14	6	16	36	150	4	29	1	251	312	410	721	159	339	29	7	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	242	228	44	12	1	4	9	80	3	9	1	193	232	307	539	114	281	33	4	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	295	273	71	30	4	10	18	68	2	14	3	260	312	509	821	249	314	23	6	353	125	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	26	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	135	131	33	3	0	13	2	36	1	2	1	252	271	573	843	321	241	27	1	358	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	27	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	280	258	80	25	1	21	14	66	6	9	1	310	360	659	1.019	349	338	24	5	436	181	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	382	338	76	13	3	28	34	116	7	6	0	225	307	530	837	305	244	30	9	360	129	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	347	307	63	17	1	17	33	109	4	9	0	205	292	433	725	228	253	31	10	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	388	355	99	27	3	18	19	99	11	7	2	279	334	524	858	245	338	26	5	372	138	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	542	494	129	21	7	35	36	148	7	24	0	261	321	545	865	283	302	27	7	370	137	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	32	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	408	371	94	18	1	25	28	100	6	7	1	253	315	509	825	256	279	25	7	357	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	30	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	388	355	99	27	3	18	19	99	11	7	2	279	334	524	858	245	338	26	5	372	138	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	542	494	129	21	7	35	36	148	7	24	0	261	321	545	865	283	302	27	7	370	137	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	32	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	408	371	94	18	1	25	28	100	6	7	1	253	315	509	825	256	279	25	7	357	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	33	MLB MLE	MIN	100%	421	383	102	18	3	25	28	107	7	29	4	265	326	524	850	259	302	25	7	368	135	+17	+4	+2	+2	+9	2.7
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	33	MLB CTX	MIN	100%	323	293	78	14	2	19	22	82	5	22	3	266	327	525	852	260	302	25	7	368	135	+13	+3	+1	+1	+7	2.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	34	MLB MLE	MIN	100%	266	243	63	11	2	15	17	70	4	12	2	256	315	501	817	246	293	26	6	354	126	+8	+2	-4	+1	+6	1.3
2029	35	MLB MLE	MIN	100%	211	193	47	8	1	11	13	57	3	6	1	245	303	476	779	231	284	27	6	339	115	+4	+1	-5	+1	+5	0.5
2028	34	MLB CTX	MIN	100%	266	243	63	11	2	15	17	70	4	12	2	256	316	503	818	247	293	26	6	355	126	+8	+2	-4	+1	+6	1.3
2029	35	MLB CTX	MIN	100%	211	193	47	8	1	11	13	57	3	6	1	245	303	477	780	232	284	27	6	339	115	+4	+1	-5	+1	+5	0.5
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	4302	3908	972	215	35	219	294	1205	59	142	16	249	311	490	801	241	300	28	7	347	114	+107	+22	+59	+18	+93	30.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	590	146	32	5	33	44	182	9	21	2	247	309	486	795	239	298	28	7	347	114	+16	+3	+9	+3	+14	4.6
Career	—	MLE		—	6352	5789	1445	285	75	278	420	1782	83	276	49	250	310	469	778	219	310	28	7	336	114	+120	+25	+60	+19	+100	33.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	592	148	29	8	28	43	182	8	28	5	250	309	468	777	218	311	28	7	336	114	+17	+4	+8	+3	+14	4.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2021 AAASt. Paul Saints · 26 PAwOBA .587 → .486 (−101)K% 11.5% → 14.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	11.54%	÷0.983	×1.200	—	—	14.09%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.69%	÷1.024	×0.690	—	×0.992	5.14%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	0.00%
Singles /BIP	15.79%	÷1.035	×0.930	—	×0.992	14.07%
Doubles /BIP	10.53%	÷0.996	×0.830	—	×0.992	8.70%
Triples /BIP	5.26%	÷0.900	×0.920	—	×0.992	5.34%
Home runs /BIP	15.79%	÷1.121	×0.700	—	×0.992	9.78%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 124, 1B 107, 2B 99, 3B 80, K 97, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .587 → .486; ISO .591 → .465; BABIP .333 → .282. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAARochester Red Wings · 148 PAwOBA .339 → .274 (−65)K% 28.4% → 34.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.38%	÷0.978	×1.200	—	—	34.83%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.08%	÷1.008	×0.690	—	×1.033	4.30%
HBP% /PA	2.03%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	1.97%
Singles /BIP	22.34%	÷1.023	×0.930	×0.950	×1.033	19.93%
Doubles /BIP	11.70%	÷1.009	×0.830	×0.950	×1.033	9.45%
Triples /BIP	1.06%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.950	×1.033	0.88%
Home runs /BIP	4.26%	÷0.879	×0.840	—	×1.033	4.20%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 105, 2B 102, 3B 130, K 96, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .339 → .274; ISO .184 → .153; BABIP .367 → .316. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAARochester Red Wings · 209 PAwOBA .391 → .336 (−55)K% 27.8% → 33.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.75%	÷1.007	×1.200	—	—	33.06%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.22%	÷0.968	×0.690	—	×1.050	4.66%
HBP% /PA	1.44%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	1.42%
Singles /BIP	25.00%	÷0.953	×0.930	×0.950	×1.050	24.35%
Doubles /BIP	8.33%	÷1.224	×0.830	×0.950	×1.050	5.64%
Triples /BIP	2.27%	÷0.971	×0.970	×0.950	×1.050	2.27%
Home runs /BIP	8.33%	÷0.951	×0.840	—	×1.050	7.73%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 90, 2B 145, 3B 94, K 101, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .391 → .336; ISO .263 → .223; BABIP .382 → .344. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 268 PAwOBA .361 → .301 (−60)K% 19.0% → 23.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.03%	÷0.988	×1.220	—	—	23.49%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.70%	÷1.059	×0.680	—	×1.042	6.49%
HBP% /PA	0.37%	—	×0.840	—	×1.042	0.33%
Singles /BIP	22.58%	÷0.980	×0.920	×0.950	×1.042	20.99%
Doubles /BIP	3.76%	÷0.999	×0.910	×0.950	×1.042	3.39%
Triples /BIP	6.45%	÷1.020	×0.880	×0.950	×1.042	5.51%
Home runs /BIP	3.23%	÷1.232	×0.800	—	×1.042	2.18%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 146, 1B 96, 2B 100, 3B 104, K 98, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .361 → .301; ISO .207 → .165; BABIP .332 → .299. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAARochester Red Wings · 59 PAwOBA .424 → .396 (−28)K% 20.3% → 23.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.34%	÷1.030	×1.200	—	—	23.69%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.78%	÷0.980	×0.690	—	×1.050	5.01%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	0.00%
Singles /BIP	39.53%	÷0.979	×0.930	—	×1.050	39.44%
Doubles /BIP	6.98%	÷0.987	×0.830	—	×1.050	6.16%
Triples /BIP	2.33%	÷0.932	×0.970	—	×1.050	2.54%
Home runs /BIP	2.33%	÷0.956	×0.840	—	×1.050	2.14%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 96, 2B 97, 3B 86, K 106, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .424 → .396; ISO .145 → .135; BABIP .500 → .492. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 A+Fort Myers Miracle · 134 PAwOBA .313 → .245 (−68)K% 24.6% → 34.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.63%	÷1.002	×1.420	—	—	34.92%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.46%	÷1.018	×0.750	—	×1.027	5.65%
HBP% /PA	2.24%	—	×0.930	—	×1.027	2.14%
Singles /BIP	21.59%	÷1.033	×0.920	×0.958	×1.027	18.91%
Doubles /BIP	4.55%	÷1.011	×0.960	×0.958	×1.027	4.25%
Triples /BIP	2.27%	÷0.929	×0.810	×0.958	×1.027	1.95%
Home runs /BIP	4.55%	÷0.995	×0.880	—	×1.027	4.13%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 107, 2B 102, 3B 86, K 100, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.958.

Result: wOBA .313 → .245; ISO .165 → .130; BABIP .298 → .262. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2013 ACedar Rapids Kernels · 321 PAwOBA .419 → .362 (−57)K% 17.4% → 24.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.45%	÷0.954	×1.360	—	—	24.88%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.40%	÷1.074	×0.690	—	×1.030	8.86%
HBP% /PA	0.31%	—	×0.780	—	×1.030	0.25%
Singles /BIP	27.57%	÷0.928	×0.920	×0.999	×1.030	28.12%
Doubles /BIP	7.01%	÷0.968	×0.830	×0.999	×1.030	6.19%
Triples /BIP	4.67%	÷1.023	×0.910	×0.999	×1.030	4.28%
Home runs /BIP	3.74%	÷1.132	×0.800	—	×1.030	2.72%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 126, 1B 86, 2B 94, 3B 105, K 91, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.

Result: wOBA .419 → .362; ISO .219 → .180; BABIP .402 → .391. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2013 A+Fort Myers Miracle · 253 PAwOBA .384 → .316 (−68)K% 19.4% → 28.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.37%	÷0.977	×1.420	—	—	28.14%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.86%	÷1.009	×0.750	—	×1.042	9.19%
HBP% /PA	0.79%	—	×0.930	—	×1.042	0.77%
Singles /BIP	32.54%	÷1.038	×0.920	×0.970	×1.042	29.14%
Doubles /BIP	2.37%	÷1.105	×0.960	×0.970	×1.042	2.08%
Triples /BIP	4.73%	÷0.906	×0.810	×0.970	×1.042	4.28%
Home runs /BIP	2.37%	÷0.993	×0.880	—	×1.042	2.19%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 108, 2B 121, 3B 81, K 95, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.970.

Result: wOBA .384 → .316; ISO .147 → .123; BABIP .404 → .361. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Aaron Rowandlast yr '11 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,817 PA	7.3	4,817	136	67	273	330	435	+13	+62	29.9	28.7
/162	664	19	9	+1.7	+8.5	4.1	pk7: 28
#2Paul Blair'64-'80 * career totals — 15 seasons, 6,673 PA	10.0	6,673	134	171	256*	307*	426*	+19	+67	27.3	26.8
/162	664	13	17	+1.9	+6.7	2.7	pk7: 26
#3Carlos Gómezlast yr '19 career totals — 13 seasons, 5,227 PA	7.9	5,227	145	268	252	313	411	+11	+80	28.2	26.7
/162	664	18	34	+1.4	+10.2	3.6	pk7: 25
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 15 projected seasons	7.0	4,625	239	164	250	309	494	+10	+98	29.0	25.4
/162	664	34	23	+1.4	+14.1	4.2	pk7: 22
#4Dave Henderson'81-'94 * career totals — 14 seasons, 5,677 PA	8.5	5,677	197	50	255*	319*	458*	-4	+15	25.5	24.1
/162	664	23	6	-0.5	+1.7	3.0	pk7: 23
#5Ruppert Jones'76-'87 * career totals — 12 seasons, 5,038 PA	7.6	5,038	147	143	245*	328*	438*	-7	+38	24.5	22.6
/162	664	19	19	-0.9	+5.0	3.2	pk7: 21
#6Franklin Gutierrezlast yr '17 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,333 PA	5.0	3,333	97	78	257	311	408	-10	+73	16.9	16.7
/162	664	19	16	-2.1	+14.5	3.4	pk7: 16

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Byron Buxton (OGILVIE)	33	—	—	—	—	263/324/519	256	302	19	22	25%	7%	135	+2.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Starling Marte 2022 · MLB	33	60→68	51→60	62→60	48	297/359/465	168	341	17	37	18%	6%	133	+3.7	282/339/426	144	336	15	30	20%	6%	117	+2.6	278/332/411	133	335	14	29	20%	6%	112	+1.5
✕Eric Byrnes 2008 · MLB	32	53→56	53→60	61→60	50	269/326/451	182	286	20	30	15%	7%	118	+2.6	239/297/405	166	255	17	21	14%	7%	97	+1.1	216/268/378	162	223	17	15	13%	6%	80	-0.0
✕Luis Terrero 2013 · AAA	33	52→59	58→60	53→55	46	270/335/475	204	323	26	24	25%	7%	127	+3.3	254/328/413	159	311	20	17	24%	8%	110	+2.1	248/333/397	149	305	20	15	24%	9%	107	+0.8
●Trea Turner 2024 · MLB	31	56→65	53→60	60→65	46	285/333/468	183	329	20	24	20%	6%	124	+3.1	280/328/440	160	326	18	24	19%	6%	116	+2.5	275/326/422	147	319	16	24	19%	6%	112	+2.3
●Mike Cameron 2007 · MLB	34	51→53	57→60	56→55	53	261/342/472	212	312	22	22	24%	10%	128	+3.4	248/332/451	203	305	22	16	25%	10%	120	+2.8	241/330/445	203	296	24	14	26%	11%	119	+2.7
✕Roberto Alomar 2002 · MLB	34	62→65	52→50	61→55	59	309/380/490	181	326	17	27	11%	10%	146	+4.7	269/336/394	125	298	11	15	13%	9%	107	+1.9	255/321/357	102	285	8	12	13%	9%	94	+0.7
✕J.T. Realmuto 2024 · MLB	33	50→60	54→60	56→55	45	256/319/443	187	309	20	18	24%	7%	114	+2.3	249/309/400	151	307	17	9	24%	7%	100	+1.3	239/304/371	131	295	14	5	23%	7%	92	+0.6
●Alfonso Soriano 2008 · MLB	32	52→56	65→70	54→60	44	280/325/537	257	305	33	24	21%	6%	139	+4.1	264/315/491	227	297	29	16	22%	6%	124	+3.1	251/304/485	234	283	31	5	23%	6%	119	+2.5
●Raul Mondesi 2002 · MLB	31	48→52	59→60	54→55	54	257/333/470	213	278	27	26	19%	10%	125	+3.2	250/320/448	198	270	24	18	17%	9%	116	+2.5	246/317/442	196	264	23	16	17%	9%	114	+1.8
✕Andres Torres 2011 · MLB	33	52→55	53→60	61→55	49	259/326/455	196	325	17	24	25%	9%	118	+2.7	240/317/378	138	304	10	20	23%	10%	97	+1.1	231/311/341	110	295	6	19	22%	10%	87	+0.3
✕Jimmy Rollins 2010 · MLB	31	53→59	51→60	62→60	52	263/314/441	178	268	17	30	10%	7%	111	+2.1	251/313/397	146	260	15	26	10%	8%	100	+1.3	249/316/390	141	259	15	27	11%	9%	101	+1.3
✕Shane Victorino 2014 · MLB	33	55→60	48→55	60	51	270/331/423	153	290	15	25	13%	7%	114	+2.3	244/304/359	115	276	11	18	15%	6%	88	+0.5	226/283/302	76	267	5	15	16%	6%	67	-0.3
●AJ Pollock 2019 · MLB	31	48→58	57→65	55	48	251/313/458	207	273	24	19	19%	7%	116	+2.5	267/322/487	220	298	28	12	21%	6%	126	+3.2	280/333/511	231	311	31	10	20%	6%	138	+2.2
★Carlos Beltrán 2010 · MLB	33	56→60	56→65	56→60	58	285/359/485	200	301	22	19	14%	10%	137	+4.0	281/352/480	199	306	22	10	16%	10%	134	+3.8	284/346/504	220	304	28	6	17%	8%	139	+4.2
✕Tommy Pham 2020 · MLB	32	54→58	54→55	53→55	57	274/363/461	187	321	22	20	21%	12%	133	+3.7	245/336/401	156	299	18	16	23%	11%	110	+2.1	234/321/389	155	289	18	16	24%	11%	103	+1.4
●Ryan Braun 2017 · MLB	33	55→64	58→70	53→55	49	287/342/496	209	317	26	18	19%	7%	135	+3.8	273/330/483	210	304	25	15	19%	7%	127	+3.3	268/327/480	212	300	24	15	19%	7%	126	+2.5
●José Ramírez 2024 · MLB	31	52→62	57→70	56→60	54	268/326/479	211	268	24	21	12%	8%	124	+3.1	265/319/473	208	265	26	32	12%	7%	121	+2.9	258/316/460	202	256	26	39	12%	7%	118	+2.8
✕Brandon Dixon 2023 · AAA	31	48	67→60	55	44	265/322/528	263	314	36	16	28%	7%	135	+3.9	228/286/395	167	325	21	13	35%	6%	91	+0.7	203/263/342	139	302	19	12	37%	6%	68	-0.6
✕Whit Merrifield 2021 · MLB	32	59→63	49→55	54→60	48	295/342/453	158	329	16	23	16%	6%	124	+3.1	268/314/397	129	303	12	24	15%	6%	100	+1.3	264/310/380	117	300	11	26	16%	6%	96	+1.1
●Curtis Granderson 2012 · MLB	31	46→56	62→65	55→50	55	250/337/485	235	281	29	18	23%	11%	130	+3.5	236/324/452	216	281	28	12	26%	11%	118	+2.6	240/340/459	219	272	26	7	22%	12%	127	+3.4

Byron Buxton

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps