Aaron Nola

PosP

B/TR/R

Born1993-06-04

Age (2027)34

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

MLBSP40-MAN

Pitching

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	31	MLBPHI	33	33	199	3.57	3.83	24.0%	6.1%	3.8
2025	32	MIX2 levels	20	20	107	5.57	4.03	25.1%	6.8%	1.7	K 24.5% · BB 6.7% · FIP 3.91
2026	33	MLBPHI	33	33	175	4.67	4.80	23.8%	7.7%	1.2
2027PROJ	34	MLBPHI	22	22	129	4.54	4.70	23.3%	7.5%	1.0
2028PROJ	35	MLBPHI	16	16	98	5.02	5.22	22.3%	8.0%	0.4
2029PROJ	36	MLBPHI	12	12	69	5.37	5.60	21.3%	8.6%	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 6.7 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Hitting

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR
2018	25	MLBPHI	70	.048/.063/.065	0	0	-77	-1.3
2019	26	MLBPHI	70	.119/.200/.153	0	0	-4	-0.7
2021	28	MLBPHI	63	.143/.236/.184	0	0	8	-0.6
2022	29	No MLB games played
2023	30	No MLB games played
2024	31	No MLB games played
2025	32	No MLB games played
2026	33	No MLB games played

Last 3 seasons WAR -2.6

Contract

No contract data on file.

Form3.06 ERA (proj 4.54) · K 18.8% (proj 23.3%) · BB 7.8% (proj 7.5%) ▼ last 60d · 32 IP through Oct 27

CompsMerrill Kelly (age 34) · Jose Contreras (age 34) · Hisashi Iwakuma (age 34)

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	31	187	747	160	36	18	100%	6.0	19.4%	5.0%	14.4%	2.5%	2.89	3.48	+4.4
2015	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	31	31	187	747	160	36	18	100%	6.0	21.4%	4.8%	16.6%	2.4%	2.89	3.22	+5.1
2016	23	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	20	20	111	483	121	26	10	100%	5.5	25.1%	5.4%	19.7%	1.9%	4.78	2.73	+3.8
2016	23	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	20	20	111	483	121	26	10	100%	5.5	25.1%	5.4%	19.7%	2.1%	4.78	2.79	+3.7
2017	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	178	730	194	48	18	100%	6.1	26.6%	6.8%	19.8%	2.4%	3.38	3.05	+5.3
2017	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	29	178	730	194	48	18	100%	6.1	26.6%	6.6%	20.0%	2.5%	3.38	3.04	+5.3
2018	25	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	33	33	212	831	224	55	17	100%	6.4	27.0%	6.6%	20.3%	1.9%	2.37	2.71	+7.4
2018	25	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	33	33	212	831	224	55	17	100%	6.4	27.0%	6.6%	20.3%	2.0%	2.37	2.81	+7.0
2019	26	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	34	34	202	852	229	77	27	100%	6.0	26.9%	9.0%	17.8%	3.0%	3.87	3.60	+4.4
2019	26	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	34	34	202	852	229	77	27	100%	6.0	26.9%	9.0%	17.8%	3.2%	3.87	3.71	+4.1
2020	27	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	12	12	71	289	96	21	9	100%	5.9	33.2%	7.3%	26.0%	2.9%	3.28	2.81	+2.4
2020	27	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	12	12	71	289	96	21	9	100%	5.9	33.2%	7.3%	26.0%	3.1%	3.28	2.93	+2.2
2021	28	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	32	32	181	749	223	38	26	100%	5.6	29.8%	5.1%	24.7%	3.2%	4.63	3.01	+5.4
2021	28	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	32	32	181	749	223	38	26	100%	5.6	29.8%	5.1%	24.7%	3.5%	4.63	3.13	+5.1
2022	29	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	32	32	205	807	235	28	19	100%	6.4	29.1%	3.5%	25.7%	2.2%	3.25	2.29	+8.4
2022	29	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	32	32	205	807	235	28	19	100%	6.4	29.1%	3.5%	25.7%	2.4%	3.25	2.42	+8.0
2023	30	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	32	32	194	793	202	45	32	100%	6.1	25.5%	5.7%	19.8%	3.8%	4.46	3.73	+3.9
2023	30	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	32	32	194	793	202	45	32	100%	6.1	25.5%	5.7%	19.8%	4.0%	4.46	3.86	+3.6
2024	31	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	33	33	199	820	197	50	30	100%	6.0	24.0%	6.1%	17.9%	3.4%	3.57	3.72	+4.1
2024	31	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	33	33	199	820	197	50	30	100%	6.0	24.0%	6.1%	17.9%	3.4%	3.57	3.72	+4.1
2024	31	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	33	33	199	820	197	50	30	100%	6.0	24.0%	6.1%	17.9%	3.7%	3.57	3.83	+3.8
2025	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	20	107	455	114	31	18	100%	5.3	24.5%	6.7%	17.8%	3.7%	5.57	3.91	+1.9
2025	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	20	107	455	114	31	18	100%	5.3	24.5%	6.7%	17.8%	3.7%	5.57	3.91	+1.9
2025	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	20	107	455	114	31	18	100%	5.3	25.1%	6.8%	18.2%	4.0%	5.57	4.03	+1.7
2026	33	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	33	33	175	744	177	57	37	100%	5.3	23.8%	7.7%	16.1%	4.6%	4.67	4.61	+1.6
2026	33	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	33	33	175	744	177	57	37	100%	5.3	23.8%	7.7%	16.1%	4.6%	4.67	4.61	+1.6
2026	33	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	33	33	175	744	177	57	37	100%	5.3	23.8%	7.7%	16.1%	5.0%	4.67	4.80	+1.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			318	318	1891	7783	2053	490	254	100%	5.9	26.4%	6.3%	20.1%	3.3%	3.91	3.45	+45.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	34	MLB	PHI	22	22	129	545	127	41	22	100%	5.9	23.3%	7.5%	15.8%	4.1%	4.54	4.70	+1.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	35	MLB MLE	PHI	16	16	98	414	92	33	18	100%	6.1	22.3%	8.0%	14.3%	4.4%	4.84	5.04	+0.4
2029	36	MLB MLE	PHI	11	11	69	290	62	25	14	100%	6.2	21.3%	8.6%	12.7%	4.8%	5.18	5.41	-0.0
2028	35	MLB CTX	PHI	16	16	98	414	92	33	20	100%	6.1	22.3%	8.0%	14.3%	4.7%	5.02	5.22	+0.4
2029	36	MLB CTX	PHI	12	12	69	291	62	25	15	100%	5.8	21.3%	8.6%	12.7%	5.1%	5.37	5.60	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		346	346	2058	8487	2207	548	289	100%	5.9	26.0%	6.5%	19.5%	3.4%	4.01	3.59	+45.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	825	215	53	28	100%	6.0	26.0%	6.5%	19.5%	3.4%	4.01	3.59	+4.4
Career	—	MLE		341	341	2023	8300	2154	515	246	100%	5.9	26.0%	6.2%	19.8%	3.0%	3.80	3.32	+45.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		34	34	200	821	213	51	24	100%	5.9	26.0%	6.2%	19.8%	3.0%	3.80	3.32	+4.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 12 IPFIP 1.03 → 1.35 (+0.32)K% 33.3% → 28.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.33%	—	×0.860	28.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.88%	—	×0.900	5.29%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.947	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 89).

Result: FIP 1.03 → 1.35, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 10 IPFIP 1.16 → 1.45 (+0.29)K% 27.0% → 23.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.03%	—	×0.880	23.78%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.70%	—	×1.050	2.84%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.043	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 109).

Result: FIP 1.16 → 1.45, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAReading Fightin Phils · 77 IPFIP 2.53 → 3.03 (+0.50)K% 20.5% → 16.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.49%	—	×0.810	16.59%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.12%	—	×1.100	3.44%
HR / BF /BF	1.39%	÷1.021	×1.200	1.63%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 104).

Result: FIP 2.53 → 3.03, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 33 IPFIP 3.10 → 3.73 (+0.63)K% 23.4% → 20.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.40%	—	×0.880	20.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.38%	—	×1.050	6.70%
HR / BF /BF	2.13%	÷0.845	×1.100	2.77%

Result: FIP 3.10 → 3.73, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Aaron Nola (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	4.1%	—	5.19	21.9%	13.6%	167	+0.49	—	—	—
Merrill Kelly R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	34	SP	3.73	25.9%	9.6%	2.9%	.276	4.36	19.7%	12.0%	420	+0.63	3.60	1,170	76
Jose Contreras R 2006 · 3.83 FIP	34	SP	3.83	16.1%	6.1%	2.4%	.277	4.08	14.7%	7.3%	442	+0.25	2.43	1,279	70
Hisashi Iwakuma R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	34	SP	3.74	21.5%	3.9%	3.6%	.270	4.44	16.9%	11.2%	230	+0.70	3.19	884	62
Masato Yoshii R 2000 · 5.32 FIP	35	SP	5.32	12.1%	6.5%	4.4%	.302	4.38	13.1%	8.0%	244	-0.94	4.15	757	61
Hiroki Kuroda R 2009 · 3.54 FIP	34	SP	3.54	17.9%	4.7%	2.5%	.270	3.43	19.1%	14.2%	618	-0.11	2.96	1,319	52
Orlando Hernandez R 2004 · 3.77 FIP	34	SP	3.77	23.4%	10.0%	2.5%	.278	4.34	20.5%	11.7%	438	+0.57	3.35	1,315	51
Manuel Flores R 2019 · 4.32 FIP	33	SP	4.32	17.1%	7.4%	3.1%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	515	43
Kenshin Kawakami R 2009 · 3.97 FIP	34	SP-	3.97	15.7%	7.6%	2.2%	.277	4.06	15.1%	9.5%	87	+0.09	3.97	244	39
Jarrett Grube R 2016 · 4.74 FIP	34	SP-	4.74	18.9%	7.2%	4.2%	.280	4.41	15.8%	7.7%	134	-0.33	3.75	393	38
Matt Buschmann R 2016 · 4.84 FIP	32	SP	4.84	12.8%	8.4%	3.2%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	4.03	277	37
Ryan Vogelsong R 2011 · 3.65 FIP	34	SP	3.65	18.5%	7.3%	2.2%	.274	3.90	18.6%	11.3%	478	+0.25	3.14	1,184	37
Jorge Martinez R 2019 · 3.71 FIP	34	SP	3.71	16.3%	5.7%	2.3%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	214	36
Chris Smith R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	34	SP	3.79	20.0%	8.1%	2.5%	.306	4.41	18.4%	10.2%	285	+0.62	3.79	477	35
Casey Lawrence R 2022 · 4.55 FIP	34	SP-	4.55	18.6%	3.9%	4.6%	.237	4.99	13.4%	8.1%	414	+0.44	3.57	1,374	34
Angel Castro R 2017 · 3.51 FIP	34	SP	3.51	14.5%	7.4%	1.3%	.332	—	—	—	—	—	3.51	292	33
Albert Suárez R 2024 · 4.00 FIP	34	SP-	4.00	19.5%	6.8%	3.1%	.293	4.14	17.8%	10.6%	80	+0.14	3.58	616	31
Leo Medrano R 2016 · 4.34 FIP	33	SP	4.34	11.0%	7.3%	2.3%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	222	30
Josh Lindblom R 2021 · 3.79 FIP	34	SP-	3.79	22.7%	6.9%	3.2%	.319	5.07	20.8%	12.0%	133	+1.28	1.83	480	30
Logan Duran R 2016 · 3.77 FIP	34	SP	3.77	15.3%	8.9%	1.5%	.299	3.66	15.5%	6.6%	29	-0.11	3.42	187	30
Frankie De La Cruz R 2017 · 3.77 FIP	33	SP	3.77	15.2%	8.0%	1.7%	.262	4.38	16.2%	8.2%	114	+0.61	2.87	262	30

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	10.9	146	25.8%	6.7%	1.32	4.03
Floyd Bannister ('77-'92, 28 WAR*)	11.9	159	24.7%*	8.2%*	1.37*	4.18*
John Montefusco ('74-'86, 20 WAR*)	8.3	150	22.5%*	7.3%*	1.20*	4.16*
Sonny Siebert ('64-'75, 28 WAR*)	10.8	179	22.1%*	7.5%*	1.17*	3.86*
Mike Minor ('22)	7.0	128	21.6%	7.0%	1.30	4.25
Lance Lynn ('24)	10.0	154	23.7%	8.3%	1.04	3.74
Jon Gray ('25)	6.2	123	23.4%	7.8%	1.17	4.49

Aaron Nola

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Path Comps

Career Comps