Luke Schafer

P Tri-City Dust Devils

Age 26 RHP A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	25	A+LAA	28	4	60	4.48	3.37	21.3%	8.0%	—	K 16.4% · BB 9.2% · FIP 4.18
2027PROJ	26	MLBLAA	40	0	42	4.70	4.70	18.1%	9.2%	-0.1
2028PROJ37% MLB	27	MLBLAA	19	0	20	4.69	4.70	18.6%	9.3%	-0.0
2029PROJ59% MLB	28	MLBLAA	30	0	31	4.72	4.76	18.8%	9.4%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsJarret Whorff (age 25) · Conor Steinbaugh (age 25) · Jorge Reyes (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.70

FIP4.70

K%18.1%

BB%9.2%

K-BB%8.9%

Proj IP42

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 42 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	25	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	28	4	60	263	56	21	5	14%	2.2	16.4%	9.2%	7.2%	2.4%	4.48	4.18	—
2026	25	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	28	4	60	263	56	21	5	14%	2.2	16.4%	9.2%	7.2%	2.4%	4.48	4.18	—
2026	25	A+ RAW	Tri-City Dust Devils	28	4	60	263	56	21	5	14%	2.2	21.3%	8.0%	13.3%	1.9%	4.48	3.37	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	LAA	40	0	42	177	32	16	5	0%	1.1	18.1%	9.2%	8.9%	2.9%	4.70	4.70	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	LAA	51	0	54	226	42	21	7	0%	1.0	18.6%	9.3%	9.3%	2.9%	4.69	4.70	-0.1
2029	28	MLB MLE	LAA	49	0	52	219	41	21	7	0%	1.1	18.8%	9.4%	9.4%	3.1%	4.72	4.76	-0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	LAA	19	0	20	84	16	8	2	0%	1.1	18.6%	9.3%	9.3%	2.9%	4.69	4.70	-0.0
2029	28	MLB CTX	LAA	30	0	31	131	25	12	4	0%	1.0	18.8%	9.4%	9.4%	3.1%	4.72	4.76	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		48	0	50	212	40	20	6	0%	1.0	18.7%	9.4%	9.4%	3.0%	4.71	4.35	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	159	80	24	0%	1.1	18.7%	9.4%	9.4%	3.0%	4.71	4.35	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		28	4	60	263	43	24	6	14%	2.2	16.4%	9.2%	7.2%	2.4%	4.48	4.18	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		93	13	200	872	143	80	21	14%	2.2	16.4%	9.2%	7.2%	2.4%	4.48	4.18	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luke Schafer (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.70	18.1%	9.2%	2.9%	—	4.73	18.7%	9.4%	105	+0.03	—	—	—
Jarret Whorff R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	25	SU	4.04	18.9%	10.2%	2.3%	.271	4.52	19.6%	12.0%	123	+0.48	3.88	257	86
Conor Steinbaugh R 2024 · 4.74 FIP	25	SU	4.74	16.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.281	6.29	15.0%	2.1%	44	+1.55	4.74	111	85
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	84
Emmanuel Chapman R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	25	SW	4.08	19.7%	10.6%	2.4%	.256	4.52	17.8%	1.3%	117	+0.44	3.81	198	84
Troy Neiman R 2017 · 4.03 FIP	26	SU	4.03	18.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	4.03	199	84
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	84
Brett McKinney R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	26	SU	4.66	18.5%	9.9%	3.4%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	183	84
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	83
R.J. Alaniz R 2017 · 3.91 FIP	26	SU	3.91	20.7%	8.9%	2.6%	.318	3.28	23.8%	15.0%	96	-0.63	2.45	362	83
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	26	SU	4.46	19.9%	9.8%	3.3%	.278	4.79	22.7%	10.3%	89	+0.33	2.64	315	83
Stephen Kohlscheen R 2015 · 3.83 FIP	26	SU	3.83	15.6%	8.1%	1.9%	.311	3.98	22.8%	15.0%	90	+0.15	2.52	167	83
Cole Johnson R 2015 · 3.52 FIP	26	SU	3.52	17.4%	8.4%	1.5%	.311	3.61	14.0%	9.2%	49	+0.09	3.52	101	82
Spencer Stockton R 2022 · 4.18 FIP	26	SU	4.18	20.2%	10.3%	2.7%	.276	5.45	18.9%	6.4%	63	+1.27	1.93	233	82
Kyle Martin R 2017 · 4.41 FIP	26	SU	4.41	18.3%	10.0%	2.9%	.304	3.22	23.0%	10.0%	51	-1.19	3.01	214	82
D.J. Carrasco R 2003 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	16.1%	10.1%	2.2%	.291	4.66	10.5%	1.4%	150	+0.39	3.23	490	82
Jonathan Hughes R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	26	SU	4.31	17.1%	9.2%	2.7%	.283	3.54	17.1%	4.9%	50	-0.77	3.44	219	82
Dylan Simmons R 2024 · 3.85 FIP	23	SU	3.85	17.8%	9.4%	1.9%	.295	5.10	12.7%	0.6%	74	+1.25	3.85	125	82
Logan Bawcom R 2015 · 3.85 FIP	26	SU	3.85	15.8%	9.1%	1.7%	.320	4.35	15.9%	6.2%	259	+0.50	3.73	399	82
Derek Self R 2016 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	15.1%	8.1%	1.8%	.331	4.73	13.7%	9.0%	189	+0.89	3.82	302	82
Layne Somsen R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	26	SU	3.74	19.5%	12.5%	1.3%	.265	4.00	19.9%	6.7%	92	+0.26	3.66	154	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	49	18.5%	9.3%	1.15	4.70
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
J. C. Gutierrez ('07-'14, -0 WAR*)	1.4	57	19.8%*	8.5%*	1.19*	4.72*
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*