Joe Tiroly

2B Lake Elsinore Storm

Age 22 R/R A HR +5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1040ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2026	21	ASD	71	.323/.380/.692	7	0	119	—	.239/.282/.493
2027PROJMLE	22	MLBSD	181	.235/.289/.408	7	2	94	0.1
2028PROJ34% MLB	23	MLBSD	37	.234/.289/.408	1	0	95	0.1
2029PROJ46% MLB	24	MLBSD	84	.235/.292/.410	3	1	97	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A

ISO99

wOBA96

wRC+96

Z-Con%84

K%73

Whiff%71

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.2, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 92%

CompsMichael Choice (age 22) · Luis Exposito (age 22) · Ryan Lavarnway (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 51 proj PA

wRC+†94

AVG/OBP/SLG.233 / .287 / .405

PA51

HR2

K%28

BB%6

ISO174

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$5M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2035	Arb-1	$0.6M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Arb-2	$5M	—	—	—
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$2M	+$0.6M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	21	A	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	71	65	21	3	0	7	5	14	1	0	2	323	380	692	1.073	369	318	20	7	459	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	21	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	71	67	16	2	0	5	3	19	1	0	2	239	282	493	774	254	268	27	4	344	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	71	67	16	2	0	5	3	19	1	0	2	239	282	493	774	254	256	27	4	344	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A RAW	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	71	65	21	3	0	7	5	14	1	0	2	323	380	692	1.073	369	318	20	7	459	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	71	67	16	2	0	5	3	19	1	0	2	239	282	493	774	254	268	27	4	344	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	21	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	71	67	16	2	0	5	3	19	1	0	2	239	282	493	774	254	268	27	4	344	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	22	MLB MLE	SD	0%	181	166	39	6	1	7	11	51	2	2	1	235	289	408	697	174	290	28	6	307	94	-1	+0	-1	+1	+4	0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	SD	34%	108	99	24	4	1	4	7	30	1	1	1	236	292	411	702	174	291	28	6	309	95	-1	-0	-0	+0	+2	0.2
2029	24	MLB MLE	SD	46%	181	165	39	6	1	7	12	49	2	2	1	237	294	412	706	175	292	27	7	311	97	-1	+0	-1	+1	+4	0.3
2030	25	MLB MLE	SD	52%	246	226	53	9	1	9	16	66	2	3	1	238	295	412	708	174	292	27	7	312	97	-1	+0	-1	+1	+5	0.5
2031	26	MLB MLE	SD	54%	301	275	66	11	2	11	20	80	3	4	2	238	296	412	708	174	292	27	7	312	98	-1	+0	-1	+1	+7	0.6
2032	27	MLB MLE	SD	54%	329	301	72	12	2	12	22	88	3	4	2	238	297	409	706	172	291	27	7	311	97	-1	+0	-1	+1	+7	0.6
2033	28	MLB MLE	SD	54%	342	313	74	12	2	12	23	92	3	4	2	236	295	404	699	169	290	27	7	309	95	-2	+0	-2	+1	+7	0.5
2034	29	MLB MLE	SD	53%	341	312	73	12	2	12	23	93	3	4	2	233	292	398	690	165	288	27	7	305	93	-3	+0	-2	+1	+7	0.3
2035	30	MLB MLE	SD	52%	334	306	70	11	1	12	22	92	3	3	3	230	288	390	678	160	286	28	7	300	89	-4	-1	-3	+1	+7	0.1
2036	31	MLB MLE	SD	52%	321	294	67	11	1	11	21	89	3	3	6	226	283	380	663	154	283	28	7	294	85	-6	-2	-4	+1	+7	-0.3
2028	23	MLB CTX	SD	34%	37	35	7	1	0	1	2	10	0	0	0	234	289	408	698	175	286	27	5	307	95	-0	+0	-0	+0	+1	0.1
2029	24	MLB CTX	SD	46%	84	78	18	3	0	3	5	23	1	1	0	235	292	410	701	175	287	27	6	309	97	-0	+0	-0	+0	+2	0.2
2030	25	MLB CTX	SD	52%	127	117	28	4	1	5	8	34	1	2	1	235	293	410	703	175	287	27	6	310	97	-0	+0	-0	+0	+3	0.2
2031	26	MLB CTX	SD	54%	163	149	35	5	1	6	11	44	2	2	1	235	294	409	703	174	286	27	7	310	98	-0	+0	-0	+1	+4	0.3
2032	27	MLB CTX	SD	54%	178	162	39	6	1	7	12	47	2	2	1	235	294	407	701	172	286	26	7	309	97	-1	+0	-1	+1	+4	0.3
2033	28	MLB CTX	SD	54%	186	170	40	6	1	7	12	50	2	2	1	233	292	402	694	169	285	27	6	307	95	-1	+0	-1	+1	+4	0.3
2034	29	MLB CTX	SD	53%	181	165	39	6	1	7	12	49	2	2	1	230	289	395	685	165	283	27	7	303	93	-2	+0	-1	+1	+4	0.2
2035	30	MLB CTX	SD	52%	175	159	37	6	1	6	12	48	2	2	1	227	286	388	673	160	281	27	7	298	89	-2	+0	-2	+1	+4	0.1
2036	31	MLB CTX	SD	52%	167	153	35	5	1	6	11	47	1	1	3	223	281	378	658	155	278	28	7	292	85	-3	-1	-2	+1	+4	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1298	1188	278	42	7	48	85	352	13	14	9	234	292	402	695	168	289	27	7	304	94	-10	-1	-7	+5	+28	1.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	595	140	21	4	24	43	176	7	7	5	235	295	405	701	170	291	27	7	304	94	-5	-0	-4	+2	+14	0.7
Career	—	MLE		—	2625	2406	565	92	13	97	172	712	24	29	22	235	292	405	697	170	290	27	7	308	94	-20	-2	-14	+9	+55	2.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	596	140	23	3	24	43	176	6	7	5	235	293	404	698	169	290	27	7	308	94	-5	-1	-4	+2	+14	0.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ALake Elsinore Storm · 71 PAwOBA .445 → .344 (−101)K% 19.7% → 26.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.72%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	26.82%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.04%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.015	4.93%
HBP% /PA	1.41%	—	×0.780	—	×1.015	1.12%
Singles /BIP	21.57%	÷1.000	×0.920	×0.950	×1.015	19.13%
Doubles /BIP	5.88%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.950	×1.015	4.71%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.910	×0.950	×1.015	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	13.73%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.015	11.15%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .445 → .344; ISO .369 → .280; BABIP .318 → .268. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Russ Davis'94-'01 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,176 PA	3.3	2,176	84	16	244*	296*	428*	+6	-9	5.0	5.2
/162	664	26	5	+1.9	-2.8	1.5	pk7: 6
#2Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
/162	664	18	6	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	2.0	1,349	49	15	235	290	404	+5	-12	3.1	2.9
/162	664	24	8	+2.4	-5.9	1.5	pk7: 3
#3Dale Sveum'86-'99 * career totals — 10 seasons, 2,810 PA	4.2	2,810	69	10	232*	295*	389*	+14	-23	1.4	2.4
/162	664	16	2	+3.4	-5.4	0.3	pk7: 4
#4Conor Gillaspielast yr '17 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,503 PA	2.3	1,503	32	1	252	305	394	+5	-14	2.2	2.2
/162	664	14	0	+2.4	-6.1	1.0	pk7: 2
#5Jose Castillolast yr '08 career totals — 5 seasons, 2,059 PA	3.1	2,059	39	13	254	296	379	+7	-14	1.9	1.9
/162	664	13	4	+2.4	-4.5	0.6	pk7: 2
#6Jeff Branson'92-'01 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,720 PA	2.6	1,720	34	9	236*	291*	373*	+9	-3	0.8	1.8
/162	664	13	3	+3.4	-1.1	0.3	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Joe Tiroly (OGILVIE)	22	—	—	—	—	233/287/405	172	290	2	1	28%	6%	94	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Michael Choice 2012 · A	22	45→55	53→50	44→40	42	230/296/404	174	311	22	7	32%	7%	97	+1.1	237/303/367	130	314	15	5	28%	7%	91	+0.6	233/304/351	118	304	14	3	26%	7%	86	+0.2
✕Luis Exposito 2009 · A	22	47→50	52→50	43→30	37	244/276/404	160	303	21	3	27%	4%	88	+0.5	239/284/366	127	302	12	3	24%	5%	82	+0.0	235/285/352	117	298	10	2	24%	6%	77	-0.3
●Ryan Lavarnway 2010 · A	22	44→46	53→55	43→30	41	226/285/402	176	308	20	3	32%	7%	92	+0.7	236/302/401	165	298	20	2	27%	8%	98	+1.2	235/303/390	155	288	20	1	25%	8%	95	+0.8
✕Victor Bericoto 2024 · AA	22	44→49	50	41→40	42	226/280/376	150	296	19	3	30%	7%	84	+0.1	235/281/359	124	312	14	4	28%	6%	80	-0.2	240/285/353	113	317	13	3	27%	5%	77	-0.3
✕Eddys Leonard 2023 · A	22	45→47	48→50	45→50	42	226/295/372	146	296	15	5	28%	6%	89	+0.5	222/280/363	141	284	16	8	27%	6%	81	-0.1	215/271/359	144	269	17	9	26%	5%	74	-0.4
✕Joey Bart 2020 · AA	23	43	53→55	45→40	38	228/270/395	166	287	21	7	29%	5%	84	+0.2	235/289/374	139	337	16	5	33%	6%	86	+0.3	251/343/392	142	332	17	1	27%	10%	112	+1.0
✕Travis Jones 2008 · A	22	43→48	51→45	45→50	50	225/308/381	156	268	20	9	24%	9%	96	+1.0	213/287/338	125	280	13	14	27%	8%	78	-0.3	205/279/321	116	273	11	16	28%	8%	68	-0.7
✕Adam Rosales 2006 · A	23	46→50	50→55	45	39	234/284/385	151	302	18	6	28%	5%	88	+0.4	227/288/371	144	286	13	8	24%	6%	86	+0.3	240/306/397	158	288	13	8	21%	6%	97	+0.9
✕Tony Delmonico 2009 · A	22	45→48	54→45	47→40	44	236/305/427	191	287	21	4	25%	7%	105	+1.7	229/308/344	115	301	11	5	26%	8%	88	+0.4	224/312/329	104	298	11	3	26%	8%	83	+0.0
✕Connor Wong 2018 · A	22	47→55	49→55	46→50	38	233/283/379	145	326	17	7	33%	5%	85	+0.2	210/263/373	163	337	21	8	42%	6%	77	-0.3	242/296/383	141	316	16	10	28%	6%	90	+0.4
✕Bryan Ramos 2024 · AA	22	42	50	44→50	43	221/284/370	149	272	19	5	27%	7%	84	+0.2	204/271/322	118	262	13	10	27%	7%	69	-0.9	190/263/293	103	246	11	12	27%	7%	56	-1.3
●Jonathon Long 2024 · A	22	44→54	54→45	49→40	44	232/304/405	174	289	22	7	28%	7%	100	+1.3	253/330/394	141	325	16	3	25%	9%	106	+1.8	257/335/390	133	331	14	2	25%	9%	104	+1.5
✕Kenny Holmberg 2006 · A	23	50→46	50	43→40	46	254/306/407	154	296	18	4	21%	6%	101	+1.4	221/297/340	119	273	12	4	23%	9%	82	-0.0	204/293/301	97	255	10	3	22%	10%	71	-0.5
●Gordon Beckham 2009 · A	22	47→56	48→50	46→45	45	240/288/377	137	278	16	7	20%	6%	86	+0.3	255/318/402	147	294	14	7	18%	7%	104	+1.6	249/316/387	138	289	13	6	18%	7%	100	+1.2
✕Tyler Ogle 2013 · A	22	46→43	49→50	45→30	44	233/294/379	146	292	17	5	26%	7%	90	+0.6	219/305/352	133	265	15	3	22%	10%	88	+0.4	209/298/348	138	250	17	2	23%	10%	81	-0.0
✕Max Stassi 2013 · A	22	43→45	48→55	44→40	40	219/279/357	139	300	16	5	32%	6%	79	-0.2	222/269/363	141	295	16	3	30%	5%	76	-0.4	216/302/377	161	281	21	0	29%	10%	94	+0.4
✕Jake Lemmerman 2011 · A	22	51	48→45	44→45	42	252/307/401	149	328	15	6	27%	6%	99	+1.3	228/300/342	114	307	9	8	27%	8%	84	+0.1	217/296/323	106	293	9	9	27%	8%	76	-0.3
✕Tyler Locklear 2023 · A	22	45→53	52→50	48→50	37	232/290/395	163	305	21	6	31%	5%	93	+0.8	239/320/396	157	316	17	12	28%	8%	104	+1.6	240/325/394	154	321	17	14	28%	8%	103	+1.3
✕Johermyn Chavez 2011 · A	22	46→49	51→50	42→45	38	233/284/391	158	316	19	6	32%	5%	88	+0.5	213/278/345	132	282	15	5	29%	6%	76	-0.4	193/264/306	113	255	13	4	29%	7%	60	-0.8
✕Michael Chavis 2018 · AA	22	41→46	53→60	47→45	36	216/264/387	171	283	21	4	32%	5%	81	-0.1	237/292/419	182	316	24	6	32%	6%	99	+1.2	237/296/422	185	318	26	5	33%	7%	100	+0.6

Joe Tiroly

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps