Sebastian Pena — OGILVIE

Sebastian PenaOF DSL Padres Gold

Age 19 L/L 6'1" / 180 lbs ROK HR +5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 157 proj PA

wRC+†51

AVG/OBP/SLG.191 / .264 / .260

PA157

HR1

K%27

BB%8

ISO69

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 20

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT30

scouting grade only

POWER20

scouting grade only

EYE35

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	17	ROK	DSL Padres Brown	—	163	148	32	8	2	0	15	33	0	4	5	216	288	297	586	81	278	20	9	269	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK	DSL Padres Gold	—	187	138	32	6	1	0	41	42	2	6	3	232	414	290	704	58	314	22	22	332	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	—	163	152	21	5	1	0	11	39	0	4	5	138	196	184	381	46	187	24	7	176	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	—	187	150	23	4	1	0	29	51	2	6	3	153	298	193	492	40	205	27	16	236	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	—	163	152	21	5	1	0	11	39	0	4	5	138	196	184	381	46	186	24	7	176	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Padres Brown	—	163	148	32	8	2	0	15	33	0	4	5	216	288	297	586	81	278	20	9	269	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	—	187	150	23	4	1	0	29	51	2	6	3	153	298	193	492	40	219	27	16	236	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK RAW	DSL Padres Gold	—	187	138	32	6	1	0	41	42	2	6	3	232	414	290	704	58	314	22	22	332	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	—	163	151	21	5	1	0	11	39	0	4	5	139	196	185	382	46	187	24	7	176	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	—	187	154	23	4	1	0	29	51	2	6	3	149	298	188	487	39	205	27	16	236	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	—	163	151	21	5	1	0	11	39	0	4	5	139	196	185	382	46	187	24	7	176	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	—	187	154	23	4	1	0	29	51	2	6	3	149	298	188	487	39	205	27	16	236	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	19	MLB MLE	SD	0%	297	268	52	9	2	2	25	80	2	4	1	193	266	262	529	69	265	27	8	244	51	-17	+0	+0	-2	+6	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	SD	34%	239	215	43	8	2	2	20	63	2	4	1	199	273	280	553	81	268	26	8	254	58	-12	+0	+0	-1	+5	-0.8
2028	20	MLB CTX	SD	34%	82	74	15	2	1	1	7	22	1	1	0	196	270	274	544	79	263	27	9	251	58	-4	+0	+0	-0	+2	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	82	74	15	2	1	1	7	22	1	1	0	203	280	297	578	95	275	27	9	251	42	-4	+0	+0	-0	+2	-0.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	587	119	16	8	8	55	174	8	8	0	203	280	298	578	95	274	27	8	251	42	-32	+2	+0	-4	+14	-2.1
Career	—	MLE		—	746	659	114	22	5	3	73	195	5	16	10	173	261	235	496	62	237	26	10	230	42	-21	+0	+0	-2	+9	-1.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	574	99	19	4	3	64	170	4	14	9	172	260	235	495	63	235	26	10	230	42	-34	+1	+0	-4	+14	-2.4

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#2Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
/162	664	18	6	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#4Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	0.4	239	2	4	196	267	269	-1	+0	-0.7	-0.4
/162	664	4	10	-4.0	+0.0	-2.0	pk7: 0
#5Abraham Torolast yr '25 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,561 PA	2.4	1,561	39	16	220	282	351	-1	-8	-0.5	-0.5
/162	664	17	7	-0.2	-3.2	-0.2	pk7: -0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Sebastian Pena (OGILVIE)	19	30	20	45	35	191/264/260	69	265	1	2	27%	8%	51	-0.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Yohairo Cuevas 2023 · A	19	38	36→40	49→50	48	179/264/246	67	265	3	9	31%	10%	49	-2.4	191/274/274	83	295	5	14	33%	9%	59	-1.7	189/281/265	77	291	4	18	33%	10%	58	-1.0
✕Miguel Arrendell 2007 · A	19	39	36→30	45→50	41	184/254/252	67	277	4	6	32%	7%	46	-2.6	184/282/240	56	229	3	9	19%	11%	55	-2.0	201/272/282	81	263	7	9	25%	8%	56	-0.7
✕Nicoll Parra 2012 · A	18	38	36→30	44→55	47	182/267/249	68	261	3	8	29%	9%	51	-2.3	186/307/237	51	243	1	18	21%	13%	64	-1.3	162/315/195	34	211	0	27	19%	16%	59	-0.6
✕Shane Mardirosian 2015 · A	19	37→40	35→40	47→45	42	177/239/240	64	244	2	9	27%	6%	37	-3.3	199/249/272	73	277	4	10	28%	5%	47	-2.5	198/248/269	71	276	4	9	28%	5%	44	-1.2
✕Sandy Acevedo 2012 · A	19	37	36→40	50	41	179/245/245	67	256	3	12	30%	6%	40	-3.0	179/255/273	94	247	6	10	28%	8%	51	-2.2	147/236/256	109	194	8	10	27%	8%	39	-0.9
✕Manolfi Jimenez 2024 · A	19	37	36→45	45	45	176/228/243	67	217	3	9	20%	6%	32	-3.6	192/239/282	90	254	8	7	27%	5%	46	-2.6	180/223/276	95	245	10	5	30%	4%	39	-1.1
✕Herman Armas 2006 · A	19	36	35→40	41→50	47	172/248/230	58	235	3	7	27%	8%	39	-3.1	188/262/273	85	246	6	10	25%	7%	54	-2.0	179/258/266	87	227	7	12	23%	7%	49	-1.2
✕Narciso Polanco 2024 · A	19	38→42	36→40	47→55	46	182/256/247	65	259	3	8	29%	8%	45	-2.7	193/266/277	84	267	6	17	27%	8%	55	-1.9	193/266/281	89	260	6	21	27%	8%	54	-1.6
✕Henry Pena 2010 · A	19	37	37→40	45	49	177/263/255	78	261	4	5	31%	10%	51	-2.3	198/271/294	96	333	7	6	39%	9%	61	-1.5	204/277/339	135	307	13	8	35%	8%	70	-0.1
✕Dennys Riera 2024 · A	19	31	36→40	48→50	42	157/222/222	65	212	4	6	27%	6%	27	-4.0	171/249/237	66	229	3	7	25%	6%	41	-3.0	156/245/214	58	204	3	7	23%	6%	36	-0.9
✕Luilly Baez 2008 · A	19	39	34→40	44→40	46	182/251/236	54	255	2	5	27%	8%	40	-3.0	197/283/274	77	252	4	5	21%	10%	61	-1.5	190/297/277	88	224	5	2	16%	13%	65	-0.5
✕Cristhian Vasquez 2016 · A	19	34	36→30	51→50	44	167/239/232	64	246	4	10	32%	8%	35	-3.4	178/236/251	73	240	5	9	26%	6%	38	-3.2	162/218/231	69	210	4	8	24%	5%	24	-1.5
✕Darwin Alvarado 2018 · A	19	37	34→30	49→50	43	177/247/223	46	259	2	9	31%	7%	36	-3.3	183/238/240	57	256	3	10	28%	6%	36	-3.4	152/201/197	46	195	3	14	23%	5%	11	-1.4
✕Vicmal De La Cruz 2013 · A	19	40	38→40	49→50	45	192/259/276	85	264	5	8	28%	8%	53	-2.1	181/236/251	70	267	4	6	32%	6%	38	-3.2	148/203/199	52	218	3	3	32%	5%	12	-1.4
✕Ronier Lascarro 2019 · A	18	41	35→30	47→50	51	190/274/249	59	262	1	7	26%	10%	53	-2.1	189/284/257	68	258	3	9	25%	11%	59	-1.7	172/299/237	64	208	2	10	16%	14%	58	-0.7
✕Robert Lopez 2023 · A	19	36	36→45	46→45	42	172/250/235	63	266	3	6	34%	8%	40	-3.0	198/264/283	85	295	7	4	33%	8%	57	-1.8	188/259/268	80	276	7	3	32%	8%	48	-0.9
✕Freizer Pedron 2006 · A	19	40	37→30	46→55	41	195/250/265	70	268	5	12	28%	6%	47	-2.6	203/268/268	65	260	2	15	21%	7%	54	-2.0	203/274/262	60	249	1	23	17%	7%	53	-0.6
✕Cristopher Barete 2021 · A	19	37	35→30	47→55	46	176/236/234	58	220	3	12	21%	6%	34	-3.5	201/262/280	79	286	4	14	29%	7%	55	-2.0	186/240/248	61	280	2	23	32%	6%	36	-1.1
✕Jose Augusto Figueroa 2012 · A	19	40	38→40	44→45	45	188/266/270	82	276	4	6	31%	8%	55	-2.0	207/268/294	87	267	4	10	23%	7%	59	-1.6	240/273/329	88	342	5	9	30%	4%	66	-0.4
✕Fidel Castro 2018 · A	19	37	36→50	46→45	41	179/243/246	67	270	3	6	33%	7%	40	-3.1	188/257/298	110	336	8	8	43%	7%	57	-1.8	164/239/288	124	322	10	8	48%	7%	45	-0.8

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps