Chase Jessee — OGILVIE

Chase Jessee P Northwest Arkansas Naturals

Age 27 LHP 6'0" / 194 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 34 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109117vR 125

ERA4.83

FIP4.83

K%21.8%

BB%12.5%

K-BB%9.3%

ROS IP35

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 34 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	36	5	65	300	74	45	5	14%	1.8	19.9%	15.8%	4.1%	1.7%	4.27	4.35	—
YTD	27	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	36	5	65	300	74	45	5	14%	1.8	19.9%	15.8%	4.1%	1.7%	4.27	4.35	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	A+ RAW	KC	1	0	0	3	1	1	0	0%	0.3	33.3%	33.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	4.51	—
2026	27	AA RAW	KC	34	4	63	285	70	41	4	12%	1.9	24.6%	14.4%	10.2%	1.4%	4.00	3.62	—
2026	27	AAA RAW	KC	1	1	2	12	3	3	1	100%	2.0	25.0%	25.0%	0.0%	8.3%	13.50	8.73	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	KC	32	0	34	142	31	18	4	0%	1.1	21.8%	12.3%	9.5%	3.0%	4.83	4.86	-0.1
2027	28	MLB CTX	KC	12	0	13	55	12	7	2	0%	1.1	21.8%	12.3%	9.5%	3.0%	4.83	4.86	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		12	0	13	53	12	7	2	0%	1.1	21.8%	12.3%	9.5%	3.0%	4.83	4.48	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	190	111	32	0%	1.1	21.8%	12.3%	9.5%	3.0%	4.83	4.48	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		36	5	65	300	60	47	5	14%	1.8	19.9%	15.8%	4.1%	1.7%	4.27	4.35	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		110	15	200	918	183	145	15	14%	1.8	19.9%	15.8%	4.1%	1.7%	4.27	4.35	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chase Jessee (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.83	21.8%	12.5%	2.9%	—	4.86	21.8%	9.5%	34	+0.03	—	—	—
Juan Grullon L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	26	SU	4.64	19.8%	10.9%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	134	82
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	82
Aaron Brown L 2019 · 4.04 FIP	27	SU	4.04	22.9%	13.5%	2.1%	.317	4.77	19.4%	6.7%	129	+0.73	4.04	269	81
Jeremy Horst L 2015 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	18.8%	11.2%	2.1%	.291	3.71	15.1%	2.7%	48	-0.38	3.71	108	79
David Rollins L 2017 · 5.58 FIP	27	SU	5.58	18.0%	12.1%	4.5%	.260	5.68	15.9%	12.5%	20	+0.10	3.59	132	79
Garrett Irvin L 2023 · 4.42 FIP	24	SU	4.42	23.2%	11.6%	3.3%	.283	4.32	17.7%	2.9%	39	-0.10	4.32	110	78
Brad Kuntz L 2018 · 4.10 FIP	26	SU	4.10	20.9%	11.7%	2.4%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	2.35	197	78
Brian Moran L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	26	SU	4.50	17.7%	14.1%	2.0%	.318	2.74	25.0%	17.4%	80	-1.76	1.80	421	78
Haylen Green L 2023 · 4.09 FIP	25	SU	4.09	18.6%	10.8%	2.2%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	78
Will Gilbert L 2019 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	19.9%	10.3%	3.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	141	77
Andy Oliver L 2015 · 4.16 FIP	27	SU	4.16	23.4%	16.9%	1.6%	.283	4.56	19.2%	8.6%	108	+0.40	3.93	165	77
Brendan Nail L 2023 · 4.39 FIP	27	SU	4.39	18.9%	10.5%	2.8%	.262	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	165	77
Greg Nappo L 2016 · 5.09 FIP	27	SU	5.09	17.2%	10.3%	3.9%	.285	6.26	12.3%	-0.3%	11	+1.17	3.37	144	77
Graeme Stinson L 2023 · 4.85 FIP	25	SU	4.85	19.5%	15.6%	2.6%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	146	76
James Reeves L 2019 · 3.74 FIP	26	SU	3.74	22.4%	10.3%	2.2%	.226	5.11	27.0%	10.8%	51	+1.37	2.02	280	75
Triston Polley L 2023 · 4.15 FIP	26	SU	4.15	17.8%	8.9%	2.6%	.331	4.53	17.4%	-0.3%	22	+0.38	4.15	151	75
Tony Cingrani L 2016 · 4.19 FIP	27	SU	4.19	18.1%	13.3%	1.7%	.271	3.50	32.4%	26.1%	65	-0.69	1.68	186	75
Bryan Harper L 2016 · 4.13 FIP	26	SU	4.13	19.3%	9.6%	2.6%	.197	4.63	14.9%	1.0%	46	+0.50	4.13	133	75
Will Lamb L 2017 · 5.78 FIP	26	SU	5.78	20.0%	14.0%	4.7%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.64	178	75
Jeff Ibarra L 2016 · 3.75 FIP	28	SU	3.75	17.8%	9.7%	1.7%	.321	3.29	19.2%	13.8%	66	-0.46	2.85	101	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	34	21.8%	12.4%	1.15	4.83
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22